2019 Patriots Offseason Thread

Rjp. What value chart do you use. I've always referred to the one on GBN Report (only bc it's where I first saw it SEVERAL years ago). Wondering if that's now outdated bc they have 21 = 800 pts. 32 and 64 alone would be 860 total. That would be an overpay without adding another pic.

If there is a better resource for TVC, let me know before I say something stupid.

Yeah. That's the same one GBN has. Seems like you could move up with only 2 picks (assuming 1 is 32)

Sorry. Didnt read the full post.

32 and 73 would make sense. Not sure overpay of 15 pts even counts as an overpay.

32, 64 and 134 would be a 99 pt variance. Seems like a lot.

Thought i had the JJ one but maybe i grabbed the wrong one or added wrong in my head.

Edit: i had same chart just my mental math was incompetent

I would love for Dexter Lawrence to fall to the Patriots. I think he’s a better prospect than Ed Oliver, Christian Wilkins. I wouldn’t be shocked if he had a better career than Quinnen Williams

I could see them trading number 1 picks with a team who is looking to rebuild this year and hoping that team has a terrible year, so next year we get a really good QB with a high pick. Miami comes to mind.

Brady hasn't signed a contract extension. Maybe it means nothing and he will in time. Yet maybe it's a sign next year might be his last. At this point every year is a blessing and we shouldn't take anything for granted.

A QBs class grade is all about the top guys. I can see next year's class likely being better. Yet does it matter to us? Like there is no way we can trade into the top 10 unless something goes horrible wrong next year. Bill just talked about trading up this year and said around early 20's is about the highest they could go realistically. Even last year with two first round pick getting into the top 10 was crazy hard, nevermind like top six to get one of the top three QBs next year.

So if you can get a QB you really like be it Haskins if he drops or Rosen by trade you should do it. I'd rather that guy get a year or two extra learning from Brady, then no time at all. You just need to get QBs you really like when you can, you don't get many chances when your the Patriots drafting late every year. Unless you want to just tank after Brady leaves and I don't think the team wants that. I certainly don't want that.

Now I won't go crazy and get a guy at all cost either. I'm certainly open to trading up for a QB though if the cost isn't crazy and you really like him. I also kinda get Haskins dropping. One year of production, major talent around him and he's a pure pocket passer that I've heard people say is like Drew Bledsoe in the pocket. Which is anti everything going on in the NFL right now.

Trading up sounds great in theory, but I do worry if the right players will fall far enough in this draft. If the QBs drop, that means fewer positional players to pick. I've seen a few recent mocks where all of my targets are gone in the teens. Heck even my fallback pick at 32 in Tillery just had surgery and likely falls now.

Trading up makes a ton of sense if the players are there. Yet trading back to get a veteran seems a lot more likely. Guys like Rosen, a WR, seen Gerald McCoy mentioned. Trade down get a very good Vet, plus a second or third round pick. I'd love to get a future first but that seems like a long shot given this draft. Unless players really fall, you could take a guy at 32 that you could also have a good shot at getting at the end of the second round. You just have a massive group of prospects all ranked the same. You rarely see so many Mocks predicting a guy like Smith Jr going 32, while a bunch have him going late second.

What brings you to interpret it that way?

He talks about how those new charts are no longer being used and now everyone uses the same chart. Quick check on recent trades shows they line up with the Johnson chart and not those new age ones. The Patriots own trades show you that also. It's like he said, everyone uses the same chart, no reason to try and fool people, you can't make trades if people don't have a fairly standard value for draft picks.

Right. My post was in reply to a clearly inaccurate claim -- "Bill uses the Jimmie Johnson one and says everyone else does for the most part ..."
Bill said no such thing. 

Then I added my arbitrary interpretation of the jist of what he said. There is considerable discussion that the Chase Stuart chart is more in favor these days, or some hybrid compromise between that & the JJ one. But I didn't claim that, because I don't know. 

I merely refuted an inaccuracy & offered some conjecture. 

Did Bill say I use this draft chart? Nope, yet given what he said and looking at the trades being made it's very clear that they use the JJ one. Yea sure it's not 100% the orginal one, as Bill said it's been updated for things like being able to trade comp picks. The one I posted is that updated version. You know if your using a new age chart, you don't talk about updating your old chart.

There really isn't a discussion about Chase Stuart chart, as Bill said teams have moved away from those new age charts because you can't make trades when you can't agree on the standard value of a draft pick. It's why all connected NFL insiders us the JJ chart.  You watch the draft which chart do they use? Both ESPN and NFL Network use it. Just read a breakdown of the seven biggest trades from the last draft and they matched the JJ chart, not the Chase Stuart one.

Looking at what Bill said, the context in which he said it and the Patriots history of draft trades and it's crystal clear which chart they use. Maybe it's not 100% the same, yet if you want to play GM and propose a trade there isn't a better chart to use than JJ right now.

Lawrence was a true freshman, so two more years till you can draft him.

A lot can happen in two years, like Lawrence looked great. Yet he had a ton of talent and one of the best rushing attacks in College Football. I'll give you props if it works out that way, I'm just not ready to draw up a two year plan around him haha. Let's see how he does after that team lost 4 defensive linemen in one draft. That was the most impressive part of that Clemson team in my opinion. They stoped Notre Dame run and harrased the QB all game long. Then did the same thing to Bama. Notre Dame D outside a few busted plays could actually really slow down that offense. They got 14 points in a few minutes to end the half when Love got injured, which blew the game open.

Nevermind does Bill retire? No Brady, some guys retire, can we really get close to being that bad? Like Ettling would help with that, yet back to back epic drafts. Then another draft next year. If Lawrence is as good as he looked he's the number one pick, in a league that produces some really bad teams. You'd have to gut the team or hope the team that gets that pick wants to trade it. Then be willing to pay the crazy price. It's not crazy in theory, just seems like a crazy long-shot and goes against everything Bill has done for almost 20 years. Even McDaniels would have a hard time only winning a few games. He made the playoffs with Tim Tebow at QB.

So I get the pass on higher QBs this year, focus on the team. Yet the guys like Grier or Thorson latter in the draft make sense. I truly believe in drafting a ton of QBs, we have a very good history and have got draft picks for a bunch of them. I also really want my future QB learning from Brady for a year if that can happen. Given how deep the second and third tier QBs are this year I'd be shocked if they didn't take a QB.

Jones signed his tender today.