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2019 Patriots Offseason Thread
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 28, 2019 11:13:10 GMT -5
Here’s my ridiculously early and dumb roster projection - check my math for all i know I have 60 players listed 😂🤣 Roster projection (53) QB (3) Brady Hoyer Stidham ***I don’t think they have a choice but to carry 3. Stidham isn’t ready to play. RB (5) Michel White Harris Bolden Develin **not going to carry 6 due to 3 QBs and all the core specialists. Burkhead is the guy they let go. Bolden can carry the ball a bit if necessary and they use Michel and Harris more as pass catchers. TE (3) Saferian-Jenkins Anderson Izzo ***an acquisition here is likely OL (8) Wynn Thuney Andrews Mason Connelly Cajuste Froholdt Karras WR (5) Edelman Thomas Harry Dorsett Berrios ***Gordon not active to start due to suspension. Ellington could win the spot over Berrios too as he has kick return abilities. Edge (4) Bennett Wise Simon Winovich Kamalu/Davis **Rivers is probably done - pats like the raw ability of both Davis and Kamalu Interior (3) Guy Pennel Butler Cowart ** could be an acquisition here too Linebacker (4) Hightower Van Noy Bentley Roberts is gone if this is a health group. Enjoy Detroit. Sam is a question mark for me. If Thomas starts on PUP and Berrios and Harry look good - maybe Pats to 4 WR and carry Sam as an extra defender. Corners (7) Gilmore McCourty Jackson Jones Crossen Dawson Williams **Other than an injury or trade (Jones RFA ?) they will carry 7 Safety (3) McCourty Chung Harmon **McCourty and Jones offer depth here as does special Teamer Brooks P (1) Bailey K (1) Goskowski Specialists (5) Cardona Slater King Ebner Brooks Wasn't Crossen a big special team guy by end of year? For me if he's making that team, it's as a core special team guy. I really think guys like Bolden, Brooks, King, Karras and even Anderson have uphill battles. Patriots will cut anyone no matter the cap numbers. Brady and Bill might love Bolden, but he brings nothing to the team. Just IR him and keep him around or give him a coaching job. Who's the returner? Seems to be the one position they didn't address yet. Ellington and Berrios seems rather light and risky but we'll see. It's just a total 360 after getting Patterson last year to trust two guys that have hardly played.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 28, 2019 14:29:41 GMT -5
They gave Lacosse a decent contract and Burkhead has a 2 million $ dead hit so I would think they have a good chance of sticking around. I think Lacosse could surprise but who knows, they know what they have in Burkhead.
Rudolph would be a great get and maybe the Pats have some insight there considering they didn't draft one. Sefarian-Jenkins could also surprise if he can stay healthy. Hell I am even bullish on DT and JG being reinstated early enough to be a factor.
I am now a lot more excited about this coming season. That offensive line might be even better and the Dline also.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 28, 2019 17:46:25 GMT -5
They gave Lacosse a decent contract and Burkhead has a 2 million $ dead hit so I would think they have a good chance of sticking around. I think Lacosse could surprise but who knows, they know what they have in Burkhead. Rudolph would be a great get and maybe the Pats have some insight there considering they didn't draft one. Sefarian-Jenkins could also surprise if he can stay healthy. Hell I am even bullish on DT and JG being reinstated early enough to be a factor. I am now a lot more excited about this coming season. That offensive line might be even better and the Dline also. Regarding Burkhead, i wouldn’t bet my life on him getting cut and maybe they keep him and only 2 tight ends because they line Devlin up there and they can likely practice squad whoever they don’t keep. But I don’t think they’d worry about taking a 2m dead cap hit for him. I also don’t like Burkhead at all so I’m biased. Other than the last drive of the SB when the rams were toast I felt like every Burkhead drive during the year was worthless
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 28, 2019 17:48:21 GMT -5
Here’s my ridiculously early and dumb roster projection - check my math for all i know I have 60 players listed 😂🤣 Roster projection (53) QB (3) Brady Hoyer Stidham ***I don’t think they have a choice but to carry 3. Stidham isn’t ready to play. RB (5) Michel White Harris Bolden Develin **not going to carry 6 due to 3 QBs and all the core specialists. Burkhead is the guy they let go. Bolden can carry the ball a bit if necessary and they use Michel and Harris more as pass catchers. TE (3) Saferian-Jenkins Anderson Izzo ***an acquisition here is likely OL (8) Wynn Thuney Andrews Mason Connelly Cajuste Froholdt Karras WR (5) Edelman Thomas Harry Dorsett Berrios ***Gordon not active to start due to suspension. Ellington could win the spot over Berrios too as he has kick return abilities. Edge (4) Bennett Wise Simon Winovich Kamalu/Davis **Rivers is probably done - pats like the raw ability of both Davis and Kamalu Interior (3) Guy Pennel Butler Cowart ** could be an acquisition here too Linebacker (4) Hightower Van Noy Bentley Roberts is gone if this is a health group. Enjoy Detroit. Sam is a question mark for me. If Thomas starts on PUP and Berrios and Harry look good - maybe Pats to 4 WR and carry Sam as an extra defender. Corners (7) Gilmore McCourty Jackson Jones Crossen Dawson Williams **Other than an injury or trade (Jones RFA ?) they will carry 7 Safety (3) McCourty Chung Harmon **McCourty and Jones offer depth here as does special Teamer Brooks P (1) Bailey K (1) Goskowski Specialists (5) Cardona Slater King Ebner Brooks Wasn't Crossen a big special team guy by end of year? For me if he's making that team, it's as a core special team guy. I really think guys like Bolden, Brooks, King, Karras and even Anderson have uphill battles. Patriots will cut anyone no matter the cap numbers. Brady and Bill might love Bolden, but he brings nothing to the team. Just IR him and keep him around or give him a coaching job. Who's the returner? Seems to be the one position they didn't address yet. Ellington and Berrios seems rather light and risky but we'll see. It's just a total 360 after getting Patterson last year to trust two guys that have hardly played. I don’t remember - he certainly played some there. They gave Bolden a pretty big contract, I would be slightly surprised if he got cut but not entirely.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 28, 2019 19:07:05 GMT -5
Undrafted free agents signed by Pats - without releasing or trading anyone they have 11 open roster spots for UDFAs Jacobi Myers WR NCST Xavier Ubosi WR UBA Ryan Davis WR Auburn Terez Hall LB Missouri Andrew Beck TE Texas Tyree St. Louis. OT Miami Calvin Anderson OL Texas Tyler Gauthier OL Miami Malik Gant S Marshall Myers could be something - looks good and highly productive. Ubosi is big and fast but looks like he literally runs a go and that’s it... ha Beck a team captain Myers and Gant are the two highest rated guys. If Gant can play special teams he's my early pick for an undrafted guy to make the team for 16 straight years. He's a really good player, just an old school box safety and those aren't valued in today's game. Yet you know Bill will love a guy like him. Myers has a chance, but rookie WR is always hard nevermind on the Patriots. Frankly I worry the 15 year run is in danger. Maybe Hall as a special team guy. Given the talent that went undrafted, we didn't get a lot of it. No Morgan, no Wise, no Coney, no Hall, heck not even Dax Raymond the top TE not taken, no Willis. Webster is this great athlete, so maybe it's great pick, but how does he make the team? Not a huge deal but I would have taken those other guys and let them battle in training camp. I could see Coney making the team, he might be the most shocking guy not picked. Yea he's an ILB that won't be great against the pass, but he's better against the pass than Roberts by a mile. He's one of the best LBers Notre Dame has had in the last 20 years. A true leader and he can rush the passer and plays with passion. The Raiders got a steal, watch he'll play a lot for them. 10 years ago he would have been a mid second round pick, he reminds me of David Harris. From Walter football.. 252. Ken Webster, CB, Ole Miss A- Grade Ken Webster used to be a late first-round pick in my mock draft. He had a brilliant start to his career at Ole Miss, but following an injury and an arrest, his play completely fell off. However, Webster tested extremely well at the combine, so perhaps the Patriots believe he can return to pre-2016 form. With a pick this late, why not take a shot? The Patriots love athletic guys and they use 7th rd picks a lot to draft guys who they want as free agents. This is why I didn’t understand dumping some of their 7ths. I bet Webster is a guy they want for the practice squad or an IR stash. He’s got a ton of upside it appears and they’ve had luck with these guys
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 28, 2019 19:26:10 GMT -5
Just a thought on judging prospects by the numbers. Trey Flowers ran a 4.93 40 and a 7.34 3 cone at the combine. He turned out ok because he was willing to work and be coached.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 28, 2019 20:00:05 GMT -5
Myers and Gant are the two highest rated guys. If Gant can play special teams he's my early pick for an undrafted guy to make the team for 16 straight years. He's a really good player, just an old school box safety and those aren't valued in today's game. Yet you know Bill will love a guy like him. Myers has a chance, but rookie WR is always hard nevermind on the Patriots. Frankly I worry the 15 year run is in danger. Maybe Hall as a special team guy. Given the talent that went undrafted, we didn't get a lot of it. No Morgan, no Wise, no Coney, no Hall, heck not even Dax Raymond the top TE not taken, no Willis. Webster is this great athlete, so maybe it's great pick, but how does he make the team? Not a huge deal but I would have taken those other guys and let them battle in training camp. I could see Coney making the team, he might be the most shocking guy not picked. Yea he's an ILB that won't be great against the pass, but he's better against the pass than Roberts by a mile. He's one of the best LBers Notre Dame has had in the last 20 years. A true leader and he can rush the passer and plays with passion. The Raiders got a steal, watch he'll play a lot for them. 10 years ago he would have been a mid second round pick, he reminds me of David Harris. From Walter football.. 252. Ken Webster, CB, Ole Miss A- Grade Ken Webster used to be a late first-round pick in my mock draft. He had a brilliant start to his career at Ole Miss, but following an injury and an arrest, his play completely fell off. However, Webster tested extremely well at the combine, so perhaps the Patriots believe he can return to pre-2016 form. With a pick this late, why not take a shot? The Patriots love athletic guys and they use 7th rd picks a lot to draft guys who they want as free agents. This is why I didn’t understand dumping some of their 7ths. I bet Webster is a guy they want for the practice squad or an IR stash. He’s got a ton of upside it appears and they’ve had luck with these guys I really don't have an issue with Webster. Yet pre-2016, so 2015 form? Whatever I real don't care, I'm sure he has some upside. Fine enough pick, yet there were other guys with upside. They shouldn't have dumped those pick or why not trade for a few? If I'm a GM I want a bunch of 7th round picks every year. That way you just draft the guy and don't have to fight 32 teams. The Patriot roster is deep, most top free agents stay away. Like how athletic is Webster? Crossen was crazy athletic wasn't he? He's a guy that will fight for a roster spot. A guy that overall impressed me last year. I would prefer better competition at weaker positions and overall I'd really like both. Which is why I'm slightly upset they punted from the 5th round on. Like we made enough picks, time to wrap this up. Yet you know they didn't get some undrafted guys they wanted. Very unlike the Patriots.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 29, 2019 15:22:30 GMT -5
Undrafted free agents signed by Pats - without releasing or trading anyone they have 11 open roster spots for UDFAs Jacobi Myers WR NCST Xavier Ubosi WR UBA Ryan Davis WR Auburn Terez Hall LB Missouri Andrew Beck TE Texas Tyree St. Louis. OT Miami Calvin Anderson OL Texas Tyler Gauthier OL Miami Malik Gant S Marshall Myers could be something - looks good and highly productive. Ubosi is big and fast but looks like he literally runs a go and that’s it... ha Beck a team captain Myers and Gant are the two highest rated guys. If Gant can play special teams he's my early pick for an undrafted guy to make the team for 16 straight years. He's a really good player, just an old school box safety and those aren't valued in today's game. Yet you know Bill will love a guy like him. Myers has a chance, but rookie WR is always hard nevermind on the Patriots. Frankly I worry the 15 year run is in danger. Maybe Hall as a special team guy. Given the talent that went undrafted, we didn't get a lot of it. No Morgan, no Wise, no Coney, no Hall, heck not even Dax Raymond the top TE not taken, no Willis. Webster is this great athlete, so maybe it's great pick, but how does he make the team? Not a huge deal but I would have taken those other guys and let them battle in training camp. I could see Coney making the team, he might be the most shocking guy not picked. Yea he's an ILB that won't be great against the pass, but he's better against the pass than Roberts by a mile. He's one of the best LBers Notre Dame has had in the last 20 years. A true leader and he can rush the passer and plays with passion. The Raiders got a steal, watch he'll play a lot for them. 10 years ago he would have been a mid second round pick, he reminds me of David Harris. Malik Gant was PFF highest rated safety in the draft, oddly enough.
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Post by texs31 on Apr 29, 2019 15:31:42 GMT -5
Hollister traded to Seattle for a conditional 2020 7th.
EDIT : Yates now reporting the pick is NOT conditional. NE expected to have 14 picks next year.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 29, 2019 16:10:10 GMT -5
Hollister traded to Seattle for a conditional 2020 7th. He’s so soft this is classic addition by subtraction to be honest. Love the talent but the guy gets hurt doing everything and they aren’t just non contact hamstring stuff. It’s, he gets tackled or falls at practice and all of a sudden he’s out for the year. How many roster spot games did we waste on him the last 2 years?
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Post by kingofthetrill on Apr 29, 2019 19:39:44 GMT -5
I certainly can't complain with more draft picks. Perhaps this gives ammo to trade up next year.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 29, 2019 20:21:11 GMT -5
So far for Jimmy G the Patriots got:
Christian Sam and Damien Harris, plus picks that were partially responsible for trades that got them Duke Dawson, Joejuan Williams, Yodny Cajuste and Jarrett Stidham, and they still have the Bears’ 2020 fourth-round pick.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 29, 2019 20:22:08 GMT -5
Great we can now trade up in the 3rd round next year to take a kicker.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 29, 2019 21:41:20 GMT -5
Great we can now trade up in the 3rd round next year to take a kicker. If only the fans could run the team instead of those that do. They'd win so many more championships.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 29, 2019 22:55:27 GMT -5
Great we can now trade up in the 3rd round next year to take a kicker. If only the fans could run the team instead of those that do. They'd win so many more championships. It was a joke!
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 3,048
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Post by mobaz on Apr 30, 2019 4:33:07 GMT -5
Great we can now trade up in the 3rd round next year to take a kicker. If only the fans could run the team instead of those that do. They'd win so many more championships. I would have played Malcolm Butler...
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 30, 2019 5:50:31 GMT -5
I can’t believe how many people “don’t get” the Harris pick... same people who loved the Michel pick... getting a really good back late in the third round when you’re trying to be a running team and you don’t have a legitimate second back, who runs, is a no Brainer.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 30, 2019 7:50:32 GMT -5
I can’t believe how many people “don’t get” the Harris pick... same people who loved the Michel pick... getting a really good back late in the third round when you’re trying to be a running team and you don’t have a legitimate second back, who runs, is a no Brainer. Same with the punter pick in the 5th. They gave Allen a deal with a 100,000 dead cap hit, who didn't have a very good season. That looks to me like they want to improve at the position. Everyone just remembers the SB where he had a great game. BB isn't moved by 1 game if he thinks the production should be better.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 30, 2019 11:51:52 GMT -5
I've been calling for a power running attack and improved D for two years to help Brady as he gets older. So I get the pick and his style as a big tough RB is what we needed.
That being said I get why people question the pick you can find RBs anywhere. Josh Adams went undrafted last year. Elijah Holyfield a RB a lot of people called the best inside runner in the draft went undrafted. Dexter Williams went in the 6th round and there were a bunch between those guys.
At the same time Warring went one pick before Harris and Knox went slightly after him. Those were two of the higher upside TE picks in the draft. I trust Bill and won't make a big deal out of it, yet that Harris pick was right after and before big upside guys at our biggest need position. So you can certainly debate if going TE there was a better choice, then getting a RB later. Heck you could make the case for DT also.
Most Patriot picks in this draft you can't go well he could have filled a bigger need and still got a very similar talent latter. Harris is a guy you really can with, because I didn't have basically any different grade on him compared to a fairly large group of RBs.
So just for fun;
Instead of Harris you take Knox, come back in the 5th and take Williams or another RB. I'd bet a good amount of money Cowart doesn't get drafted and is there in the 7th round. Take your punter, then use your three 7th round picks to take Cowart, Webster, and say TE Wilson. Heck double down and take Holyfield so he can battle with Williams for a roster spot.
I think Harris will do well for us, but a lot of RBs would look awesome running behind our OL next year. Is he special or just a really solid big RB? There is some debate about that and he was picked with a few guys I had second round grades on were still on the board. Like say you hate the TEs, still a lot of other players. Like Boykins and Saunders. Like who needs a TE if you had Harry, Boykins, Thomas, Gordon and Edleman in a 5 WR set. Good luck trying to guard that, no team has enough big CB to guard those guys. So if you don't see Harris as a great RB that was clearly better by a fairly wide margin to other guys I get questioning the pick. Bama RBs haven't done great in the pros. There is that worry that Bama's overall talent level made Harris look better.
I'm just giving the views I've seen online and why they hate or dislike the pick. I liked the pick.
I don't think people don't get the Jake Bailey pick. It's the context of the pick. You traded up for a punter. Why does that matter? The majority of punters went undrafted. Bill has drafted one punter in 20 plus years before Bailey. Tons of years the best punters don't even get drafted. Yet you traded up in the 5th for a punter. There's no position in the NFL that matters less than punter. Sure it matters, but there's very little difference in talent and why they don't get paid. Look at Allen he wasn't very good last year and it didn't matter. Even if Jake Bailey becomes the best NFL punter that pick isn't some massive Home run franchise altering pick. So the Patriots deserve criticism on that pick. Given all there picks I wouldn't even have said anything if not for that stupid trade up.
Bailey was rated as a 6-7th round pick and all my draft Mags said has a chance to be drafted. Mainly because teams don't draft a lot of punters and he could have easily went undrafted. I don't mind the pick. Four years of a cheap punter is a good thing if he can beat out Allen. Yet I guarantee you they passed on more impactful players long-term and traded up to do it. It's that context why people don't like the pick and why most teams don't draft punters. You know how in the world did we win six Superbowls only drafting one punter in 20 years, a guy we cut for an undrafted Allen by the way.
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Post by texs31 on Apr 30, 2019 14:50:36 GMT -5
Would love the "you can find running backs with later picks" talk to stop (if I had my way).
Rodgers, Brady and Brees were all taken after pick 20 (Rodgers taken 24 to be exact) but nobody says you shouldn't take a QB in the Top 5 bc of it.
You use higher picks to increase the probability of success. Just bc there have been successes later in the draft (or via UDFA) doesn't mean you WILL find players there. Now, if a study shows success rates of RBs taken at different points of the draft (or undrafted), then that would be a better argument (and maybe it's true). But a list of players who succeeded despite not being a 1st round pick could be done at every position.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 30, 2019 15:38:32 GMT -5
Not arguing against anyone here just offering some additional perspective.
The Patriots also look at players differently. We can name a million different players we like based on their raw skills etc and those players may put up big numbers in certain systems but the Patriots system is different. Based on what I can gather about Harris he fits the Patriots to a T.
- can run inside - is a good pass blocker (this is HUGE) - can catch the call out of the backfield - is great with ball security - intelligent
I also think they look at him as a potential 1a to Michel which is key for a team who wants to run a lot.
I like Boykin physical traits but roster spots are at a premium and how great are the chances he cracks the top 5 in the Patriots depth chart? I assume that’s why they didn’t use draft capital on another receiver.
Tight ends are a different story, but using them... I don’t think they want a raw project at the position that high in the draft. The top back on their board is going to help your team more than a raw Tight end. Anderson and Izzo have promise and have been in the system. If you draft a tight end in the 3rd round then he has to make the team and the guys there aren’t sure bets. I feel a lot of project tight ends went early this year. It was bad value. Wilson is the one guy I don’t get not taking a chance on because of when he went.
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Post by texs31 on Apr 30, 2019 16:05:01 GMT -5
Jared Veldheer (OT) visiting Pats
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 30, 2019 17:01:56 GMT -5
Would love the "you can find running backs with later picks" talk to stop (if I had my way). Rodgers, Brady and Brees were all taken after pick 20 (Rodgers taken 24 to be exact) but nobody says you shouldn't take a QB in the Top 5 bc of it. You use higher picks to increase the probability of success. Just bc there have been successes later in the draft (or via UDFA) doesn't mean you WILL find players there. Now, if a study shows success rates of RBs taken at different points of the draft (or undrafted), then that would be a better argument (and maybe it's true). But a list of players who succeeded despite not being a 1st round pick could be done at every position. It won't ever stop because it's 100% true. Every year or let's say almost every year late round RBs come out of no where. This isn't just one guy like a Tom Brady that happened once. It's why no one says you can find a QB anywhere in the draft, because overall that really isn't true. Last year where was the RB to get over a 1,000 yards and have the best yards per carry among that group drafted? He wasn't, it was undrafted Phillip Lindsay, 1037 yards, 5.4 yards per carry. Also undrafted Josh Adams 511 yards 4.3 yards per carry in limited action. This isn't well there was Terrell Davis, once 20 years ago There's certainly RB tiers that greatly increase how good a RB will be. Example your super elite Barkley type guys. Yet overall it's still the one position where you can find great value all over the draft every year. You know it's true because teams have adjusted how they draft over the years. Do you remember 20 years ago? People debated the Barkley pick, heck they are still debating even though he was crazy good. Times have changed, teams did those studies and didn't like what they found. I like the Harris pick, yet his success rate isn't much higher than a ton of RBs taken after him. Which is the reason why people are harping at that pick. That along with the fact we have a stud RB taken in the first round last year.
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Post by texs31 on Apr 30, 2019 18:29:30 GMT -5
But saying that Philip Lindsay was great is not a success rate. Julian Edelman was great so you should wait until the 7th round to draft a QB and turn him into a slot?
I'm not saying that drafting a RB with a higher pick is good value. I'm saying that showing a list of guys who succeeded is NOT an analytically meaningful way to present the argument.
Again. You can do that at almost every position on the field and in every round of the draft.
If you're trying to present a success rate argument, give us a success rate not a list of players that succeeded.
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Post by voiceofreason on May 1, 2019 8:37:38 GMT -5
In regards to Harris and the Pats going to more of a ground and pound style which many of us have expressed the Pats should move towards with an aging Brady, you need more than 1. Sony is #1 but he has also been a bit injury prone on top of the already high probability of injury at the RB position. So it makes all the sense in the world to go out and get a 1b, especially one like Harris. Who is accustomed to being 1b, has great talent and is a 2 time captain on one of the best college teams out there. Not to mention filling the short yardage role and never coughing the ball up. It was a surprise but it certainly makes sense in retrospect.
Would love to see a Veldheer signing as well as a Rudolph addition. I also think they should get another DT with some girth and experience if their is one to be had.
The more I look at and read about this group of picks the more I like this draft for the Pats. Is it feasible that they got upwards of 6 or 7 players who will contribute meaningful seasons? I think maybe so.
How long can they get Dante to keep going, just something I wonder each time they draft an O lineman.
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