2019 Patriots Offseason Thread

I've heard about next year's draft being a really strong one for QBs.

I get that Stidham is a guy that they are at least guaranteed of having as opposed to having to trade up to get a great young QB in 2020's 1st round of the draft if they have another highly successful season, but the question I have is: Is Stidhman better than those guys that become available in next year's draft?

Not saying he is or isn't? I'm asking because I really know next to nothing about college QBs coming up for next year's draft versus how good Stidham can be, and wondered would the Patriots still be looking for a guy who can be a superstar or upper tier QB to replace Brady.

Texas what is success rate? You are throwing around that term like it's a standard draft term and it just isn't. I've never heard draft guys talk about taking a guy in this round because his success rate was higher or taking this guy over this guy because of success rate.

So if you want a success rate argument to prove an age old saying wrong, what exactly are you talking about? What makes a RB pick a success in your eyes? Do you adjust for round? The bar for Barkley has to be a lot higher than the bar for Lindsay right? You have to look at opportunity cost.

When I look at a draft I break it up into tiers. You pick players based on talent and upside, but weigh that against opportunity cost. Certain positions need to be picked higher because you have a very small percentage of finding Quality later in the draft. QBs is the extreme example of these, left tackles, true outside number 1 WRs, your elite DEs, etc. The guys you see go high in the draft every year. You then have positions like RB, OG, slot WR, etc, these guys don't get picked high because you can find elite talent later in the draft all the time. So the opportunity cost of taking a Mankins in the first is very high and basically means if he's not close to all pro level it was a bad pick. You by passed other positions that you can't easily fill later in the draft. So is Mankins the better pick because his success rate was 90%, compared to 80% for Thuney and Mason taken in the 3rd and 4th round? Mankins might have been a safer pick, but if I'm grading success rate after the fact Mason was much more of a home run, because you got a similar player at a very low opportunity cost. Getting a guy like Mason in the 4th isn't a once every ten year type thing either, it's why teams usually draft guards later in the draft.

To show you finding RBs late isn't a once every ten year type thing, 10 of the top 30 rushers in the NFL last year were picked after the 4th round, five guys undrafted. For three straight drafts a guy taken after the 4th round rushed for over a 1,000 yards in Howard, Carson, and Lindsay who were 5th, 7th, and undrafted guys in 2016-2018. Carson was 5th in yards and Lindsay was 9th. You can point to other guys at other positions doing well drafted late, you can't do that year in and year out like at RB. There isn't low round WRs every year getting a 1,000 plus yards, there certainly isn't a 1/3 of the starting QBs being drafted after the 4th round. So if you want to look at success rate as the chance a low round guy has of making a huge impact, there isn't a better position than RB. If you are looking at it like the chance they bust or reach their potential, it's still not the huge gap you'd think. Not when looking at Harris compared to everyone down to Dexter Williams in the 6th round.

I gave examples of the two different ways I think you could look at success rate, so which one is the one your talking about?

Not being snarky, but what difference does it make if a QB you select in the 4th round is better than the QBs in next years draft? Worst case, they work with him for a year and fall in love with a guy next year they have a chance to get and they get the guy next year. Even if they like Stidman they can still do that and if they don’t they used a 4th and move on. Where they got him makes next year irrelevant.

Where? The first mention of success rates is your post from 22 hours ago. Saying my list meant nothing it was all about success rate. 

I didn't go crazy at first, just listing last year's guys because everyone on here is a football junkie. We see it every year.

I guess perhaps I wasn't being clear? All I'm really trying to ask is how does he compare talentwise to the upcoming draft's QBs? I remember reading that next year's grouping of QBs is the highest in some time? Where does he rate compared to those guys (who I know absolutely nothing about either)?

I'm not saying the Patriots should have or shouldn't have drafted Stidham. I remember hearing prior to the draft that the Patriots might pass on QB because the draft class for QBs next season would be much better. I'm just trying to understand how Stidham compares to those upcoming guys.

So I suggest the concept as part of a study (without attempting to define it) but you say one exists for Harris (but provide no context) but I'm the won who is "throwing the term around"?

K

He’s not as good as the guys at the top of the class and that’s what they were talking about as far as I know. Next years top guys are supposed to be greater in number and talent than this years.

www.espn.com/nfl/draft2019/story/_/id/26625441/the-2020-nfl-draft-qb-class-five-names-know-plus-potential-landing-spots?platform=amp

For me right now only Tua is clearly better next year. Hurbert had his completion percentage really fall off and his play in general this year. It's really all about how he does next year. Fromm isn't bad, but let's see how he does losing three WRs, his TE and RB.

Then you have Eason who has barely played, his biggest thing is his high school ranking. Then Hurt who looked good, but I never thought first round QB when watching him.

So it's all how you look at QBs and the class. Tua could be the highest guy in a few years, a true he's the number one pick, only debate is who makes it type guy. Hurbert will really determine how good the class can be in my eyes. He was talked about like a Tua before the season, yet didn't play well last year. Talent level maybe? Big year for him.

Maybe I should go troll the game day thread and complain about people bitching about how the teams does or because they Don't like Thornburg. Or how we shouldn't question the teams on a sports chat board. Nah I'll stick to a useful debate on the value of RBs. Have a wonderful day!😘

Define "useful"

Somethingsneverchange