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Post by awalkinthepark on Aug 19, 2023 8:46:30 GMT -5
Another fun one - every player with >15% bb rate and >.200 ISO through age 23 in the post dead-ball era, minimum 400 plate appearances:
Edit: heck you don't even need to limit it to the post dead-ball era Circling back to this. He is now at 500 career plate appearances, has a 14.8% BB rate and .226 ISO. Changing the cutoffs to >=500 PAs, >=14% BB rate and >=.220 ISO, you get the following:
Bryce Harper, Mel Ott and Joey Gallo just miss the cutoff with a 13.9% BB rate so you can include them too if you want. These are some massive walk and power numbers Casas is showing at a very young age. I have a hard time believing he isn't going to be a force at the plate.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 19, 2023 23:38:00 GMT -5
ericmvan , any time you break down a partial season you are looking at very small sample sizes. If you also cherry-pick the start of a hot streak, this aspect gets exaggerated. Even a fair coin flipped 500 times will have distinct "hot" and "cold" streaks if analyzed that way. So I do much as you do - but also appreciate chunking the data in ways that are somewhat arbitrary (e.g. calendar months). A meaningful change in approach will still show through the numbers, if less dramatically. You're making a mistake that is pretty much ubiquitous ... looking at just the sample size without looking at the effect size. And to some degree (however small) you're also treating the players as random number generators around a fixed performance ... and we know that's not how it works.
Let's look at the dramatic improvement in walk rate. Given Casas' prior history as a AAA hitter with excellent strike zone command, we had an a priori expectation that this would happen. How often would a random number generator produce a false appearance of an improvement this large, given the overall walk rate in these first two chunks of season? Once in 159 trials (Fisher exact test, p value halved because this is one-tailed). We can construct a narrative that explains everything that happened here, beginning with the initial struggle (which I leave for the reader to deduce) and ending with the decline in his walk rate when he starts to hit (a bit tougher; he stops fouling everything off and hence gets to fewer 3-ball counts). And the contents of this narrative are completely unsurprising. In contrast, the narrative where nothing is happening except random chance, which just happens to mimic a coherent narrative -- that's ludicrous.
It's absolutely true that some hitters don't ever alter their approach, and run hot or cold via the combination of (sometimes gradual) changes to the quality of their swing execution, and luck. You will look in vain for changes in approach ... but sometimes you can identify real hot and cold streaks, and you can see that in their swing. Manny Ramirez had very evident cold streaks, lasting 12 +/- 1 game, and Jerry Remy use to to correctly identify when he was getting his swing back. Heck, I once correctly called the end of a Brian Daubach slump after a PA where he struck out -- because he had obviously fixed a problem where he was opening up his lead shoulder way too early, and had smoked a long foul on the pitch before he fanned. It's not rocket science.
It's also absolutely true (to get back on topic) that you can't use Home Runs per Contact to delimit a change in approach; too much noise. What you can do, in this case, is take the date of that improvement, combine that with Casas' own statements about being more aggressive early in the count, and do a deep data dive to determine when he changed his approach at the plate as he said he did. Someone would have to pay me to do that, though!
(I'll note that the work I did on this thread has made me change my date for when Casas' performance becomes predictive, from May 7 (the cherry-picked beginning of his success) to May 3 (the apparent beginning of his more aggressive approach.)
-----
Finally, seeing that you're a "rookie" with 50 or so posts, I want to welcome you here, as you obviously know your stuff, and analytically-minded posters are always valuable contributors. What you don't have to do is explain anything to me. I know it's is hard to tell the difference someone who is breaking rules because they don't know them and someone who is doing it very consciously because they believe they can do better by violating them, for whatever reason.
I'm not big on self-promotion, so I'll just give you a quick description of my first original analytics project, to give you a sense of where I'm coming from. I calculated the combined career BA, OBP, and SA of every significant MLB player in history relative to the offensive level they played in (which of course varied wildly). In 1973. With a pocket calculator. That was several years before the idea cropped up in print (in Sports Illustrated, who of course did just BA). Lots of good stuff subsequently, including the only proof that any form of of "clutch" hitting is real (hitting with men on versus bases empty).
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 20, 2023 0:00:36 GMT -5
Betting line for AL ROY has Henderson as the odds-on favorite at -210, and a big gap (to +Tanner Bibee at 1200) after 2 and 3. Who are of course Yoshida and Casas, +350 and +400.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 20, 2023 0:01:12 GMT -5
Lord knows I am too lazy to do the analysis but from an observation standpoint, he's being more aggressive vertically but not horizontally, that 'seems' about the same to me.
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Post by chaimtime on Aug 23, 2023 9:46:00 GMT -5
I’m really confused by this idea that Casas is going to be terrible at first forever. It seems like a foregone conclusion (for some, at least) that he’s a future DH and I don’t really get it.
He’s always graded out well in the minors, and as far as the defensive metrics go, OAA is much lower on him than DRS and UZR, so it’s not like he’s been an undeniable disaster out there. Freddie Freeman was the worst defensive first baseman in baseball when he was a rookie, according to the advanced metrics, and he turned out fine. I don’t see why, with a year of MLB experience and an offseason of preparation, he can’t be better next year.
As an aside, I’m curious how OAA actually measures first base defense. My memory may be outdated, but I’m pretty sure they don’t have any way of measuring “receiving” (scooping, stretching, etc.) and, given the lack of shifts this year, I wouldn’t be shocked if their catch probability models were having some trouble with balls that would have been hit into the shift last year. Those two things seem like they’d make first base in particular harder to grade.
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 23, 2023 9:56:05 GMT -5
I’m really confused by this idea that Casas is going to be terrible at first forever. It seems like a foregone conclusion (for some, at least) that he’s a future DH and I don’t really get it. He’s always graded out well in the minors, and as far as the defensive metrics go, OAA is much lower on him than DRS and UZR, so it’s not like he’s been an undeniable disaster out there. Freddie Freeman was the worst defensive first baseman in baseball when he was a rookie, according to the advanced metrics, and he turned out fine. I don’t see why, with a year of MLB experience and an offseason of preparation, he can’t be better next year. As an aside, I’m curious how OAA actually measures first base defense. My memory may be outdated, but I’m pretty sure they don’t have any way of measuring “receiving” (scooping, stretching, etc.) and, given the lack of shifts this year, I wouldn’t be shocked if their catch probability models were having some trouble with balls that would have been hit into the shift last year. Those two things seem like they’d make first base in particular harder to grade. Agree with all this, and would add when I checked the worst first basemen by OAA year to year for the last couple years there wasn't a strong pattern, guys would rate as among the worst then be a plus the following year, even older players.
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Post by chaimtime on Aug 23, 2023 10:47:09 GMT -5
I’m really confused by this idea that Casas is going to be terrible at first forever. It seems like a foregone conclusion (for some, at least) that he’s a future DH and I don’t really get it. He’s always graded out well in the minors, and as far as the defensive metrics go, OAA is much lower on him than DRS and UZR, so it’s not like he’s been an undeniable disaster out there. Freddie Freeman was the worst defensive first baseman in baseball when he was a rookie, according to the advanced metrics, and he turned out fine. I don’t see why, with a year of MLB experience and an offseason of preparation, he can’t be better next year. As an aside, I’m curious how OAA actually measures first base defense. My memory may be outdated, but I’m pretty sure they don’t have any way of measuring “receiving” (scooping, stretching, etc.) and, given the lack of shifts this year, I wouldn’t be shocked if their catch probability models were having some trouble with balls that would have been hit into the shift last year. Those two things seem like they’d make first base in particular harder to grade. Agree with all this, and would add when I checked the worst first basemen by OAA year to year for the last couple years there wasn't a strong pattern, guys would rate as among the worst then be a plus the following year, even older players. I think a lot of it is down to the fact that a lot of key aspects of first base defense are hard to capture/quantify. How are you supposed to assign a run value to a scoop? Can you even accurately quantify the difference in difficulty between two different throws in the dirt with the technology available? Can they accurately measure something like stretch efficiency? I wouldn’t be surprised if some teams had guys whose whole job was to turn raw statcast data into that type of metric, but I don’t think there’s anything like that publicly available. Speier did an AMA on the Red Sox subreddit last week and one of the questions he got was about Casas’s defense. His answer stressed that the speed of the game at the major league level is a huge adjustment for young players, and I think Casas’s struggles look more in line with that than a sudden loss of skill.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 3, 2023 9:07:06 GMT -5
Hey did you guys know Casas has been good lately? He has a 161 wRC+ (.309/.404/.576) since June 1st, which is 6th in the majors. The only guys in front of him are Shohei, Mookie, Freeman, Acuna, and Seager.
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Post by manfred on Sept 3, 2023 9:09:05 GMT -5
I’m sort of low-key expecting ridiculous things from him next year. Trying not to jinx it.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 3, 2023 9:39:27 GMT -5
Hey did you guys know Casas has been good lately? He has a 161 wRC+ (.309/.404/.576) since June 1st, which is 6th in the majors. The only guys in front of him are Shohei, Mookie, Freeman, Acuna, and Seager. I think that line is a precursor for what will be a few seasons where he's that good and maybe even a little better. He's all about discipline in the box, staying away from anything off the plate, waiting for a pitch he can drive, and taking his base if that doesn't happen. He's the archetype of what it means to have a plan when it's your time at bat. He's been that way since the day he put on a minor league uniform. That's really rare.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 3, 2023 9:43:47 GMT -5
I get really excited at the prospect of what Casas may be going forward. A true middle of the order bat.
Here’s my thought of the morning though.
After he’s been here for a few years, the rookie shine has worn off, and he starts to become a veteran presence, he also becomes the exact type of hitter you don’t just want in your lineup because he produces but because you hope he rubs off on everyone else. Kind of like what Schwarber did in 2021z
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Post by incandenza on Sept 3, 2023 9:48:17 GMT -5
Hey did you guys know Casas has been good lately? He has a 161 wRC+ (.309/.404/.576) since June 1st, which is 6th in the majors. The only guys in front of him are Shohei, Mookie, Freeman, Acuna, and Seager. I think that line is a precursor for what will be a few seasons where he's that good and maybe even a little better. He's all about discipline in the box, staying away from anything off the plate, waiting for a pitch he can drive, and taking his base if that doesn't happen. He's the archetype of what it means to have a plan when it's your time at bat. He's been that way since the day he put on a minor league uniform. That's really rare.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 3, 2023 9:55:38 GMT -5
Damn, had not seen the interview. That stuff is gold. He was made to play this game.
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Post by chaimtime on Sept 3, 2023 11:34:37 GMT -5
Casas has the third highest wRC+ in the AL (among qualified hitters, of course) since June 1st. Pretty nuts how good he’s been.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 3, 2023 11:46:37 GMT -5
Exactly 200 guys have 125 or more PA since the ASB. Since there is a real component to wOBA - xwOBA (pulled fly balls and opposite field grounders) I averaged the two numbers, as I usually do, to rank the best hitters in MLB. Here's the top dozen guys:
Name PA xwOBA wOBA Ave Betts, Mookie 197 .429 .476 .453 Acuña, Ronald 216 .463 .434 .449 Casas, Triston 160 .438 .457 .448 Seager, Corey 147 .428 .442 .435 Ohtani, Shohei 177 .428 .440 .434 Freeman, Fred. 204 .414 .451 .433 Ozuna, Marcell 187 .427 .428 .428 Judge, Aaron 139 .452 .393 .423 Alvarez, Yord. 143 .430 .409 .420 Rodríguez, Ju. 193 .391 .442 .417 Harper, Bryce 193 .410 .423 .417 Tucker, Kyle 193 .420 .407 .414
Casas is third to Acuna and Judge in xwOB and second to Mookie in wOBA.
It's true that Casas did not start against 4 LHP , but that was the first 3 and then Juluo Urias; he has 7 starts against them and is .382 / .401 overall. He has only 9 fewer PA vs. LHP than Acuna. I think that it's fair to say he's only been the third best hitter in MLB since the break.
The key thing here is that very clearly you can't do what he's doing without being great.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 4, 2023 4:19:28 GMT -5
Over at MLB.com, Will Leitch has named the Reds' rookie SS Matt McClain as the runner-up to Bobby Witt as the best 23 y/o player in MLB.
On a first glance, he does more impressive than Casas.
Side by side OPS+ splits by month, McClain then Casas:
DNP - 61
164 - 110 ((McClain half month)
138 -134
133 -219
108 -148
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Post by rickasadoorian on Sept 4, 2023 11:33:22 GMT -5
Start to 6/12: 225 PA, .202/.324/.367, .252 BAbip. 35bb/60k 6/13 to current: 240 PA, .325/.413/.608, .381 BAbip. 30bb/55k. Year .265/.367/.495, .318 BAbip.
I think I read somewhere where people were predicting a below average BAbip for him, though I'm not sure why. 2022: .307 2021: .319 2019: .303
It's nice to see him hitting for some power against lefties this year too. I assumed he'd eventually walk enough to be passable vs lefties if nothing else but I was pretty worried going into the year. If he can sport a .200 ISO against L too, he's going to be a beast.
I was worried about his development vs L too, thinking he wouldn't get enough PA/experience against them. He'll be close to 100 PA vs L at the end of the year.
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pd
Rookie
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Post by pd on Sept 4, 2023 11:44:33 GMT -5
Over at MLB.com, Will Leitch has named the Reds' rookie SS Matt McClain as the runner-up to Bobby Witt as the best 23 y/o player in MLB.
On a first glance, he does more impressive than Casas.
Side by side OPS+ splits by month, McClain then Casas:
DNP - 61
164 - 110 ((McClain half month)
138 -134
133 -219
108 -148
But one of those guys is a SS and the other a below average first baseman. I feel pretty good about Casas's future as a major league hitter, but he needs to take significant steps forward defensively before he's a great baseball player.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Sept 5, 2023 8:59:07 GMT -5
Since 5/1, Casas has a 150 wRC+, tied with Matt Olson for 9th in baseball. Since 6/1 he has a 163 wRC+, tied with Freddie Freeman for 5th. In the 2nd half he has a 194 wRC+, tied with Corey Seager for 2nd best behind only Mookie.
He got really really good really really quickly.
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tedf
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Post by tedf on Sept 5, 2023 11:34:22 GMT -5
Finally, seeing that you're a "rookie" with 50 or so posts, I want to welcome you here, as you obviously know your stuff, and analytically-minded posters are always valuable contributors. What you don't have to do is explain anything to me. I know it's is hard to tell the difference someone who is breaking rules because they don't know them and someone who is doing it very consciously because they believe they can do better by violating them, for whatever reason. Thank you, I may be a rookie but I have been studying sabermetrics since the rec.sport.baseball days. I recognize that you have done so more professionally than I, but you don't need to school me on the basics.
What I said is that I see value in both arbitrary chunking AND in looking to date a change in approach. And if you are being honest with yourself, you can't deny that.
For the last few months I've been looking at performance since May 3, in part because that followed multiple days off in a week. Days off don't always mean a hitter is working on his approach, but when you see that correspond to a clear change in his approach then it sure makes a convenient break point.
As you say, the magnitude of the change in results has been large, and his current performance is a lot closer to what we both expected from the minor league lines.
So... Chill a bit?
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tedf
Rookie
Posts: 79
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Post by tedf on Sept 5, 2023 12:39:31 GMT -5
Speier did an AMA on the Red Sox subreddit last week and one of the questions he got was about Casas’s defense. His answer stressed that the speed of the game at the major league level is a huge adjustment for young players, and I think Casas’s struggles look more in line with that than a sudden loss of skill.
I also get the impression that his defensive numbers have improved over the course of the season? Still negative OAA, but the number has been stable (from memory) which suggests average play since May or so.
Edit: Guess not... Not by OAA at least.
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tedf
Rookie
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Post by tedf on Sept 5, 2023 13:16:45 GMT -5
One aspect that has me wondering...
His 2021 AA line averaged 2.38 strikes per PA. His 2022 AAA line averaged 2.37 strikes per PA. His 2022 ML line averaged 2.42 strikes per PA His 2023 ML line averages 2.41 strikes per PA
As you can see, that is pretty consistent across levels and years. Through May 1 he averaged 2.54 strikes per PA. Since then he has averaged 2.38 strikes per PA. Back to where he was in the minors.
This metric is a combination of a variety of factors including plate discipline and success putting the ball in play, so there are multiple conceivable explanations for the observed variation. If a hitter's timing is a little off then he'll see more foul balls and thus more strikes. I don't have data for a systematic study, but (spot-checking) it seems like it tends to increase modestly when a player is promoted to the majors? We know strikeout rates increase with that promotion, so it seems likely this would as well.
If so, then these adjustments may be simply raising his minor league game to the major league level, more of a tweak than a real change in his approach?
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Post by kevfc89 on Sept 5, 2023 13:54:33 GMT -5
MLB Network just did a good breakdown on Casas. I hadn't realized that there have been some real mechanical changes as the year has progressed, especially with his hand and bat position.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 5, 2023 14:29:16 GMT -5
Someone needs to invent a Morpheus meme saying "what if I told you, Casas is still getting better"
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Post by dcsoxfan15 on Sept 5, 2023 14:37:24 GMT -5
I am somewhat curious what others think about Casas and ROY. Any realistic chance that he gets it? Henderson is heavily favored, but if Casas goes on a serious run in September, do the voters get swayed? Henderson has a good, not great OPS, and if Casas continues like he has recently, I could easily see him ending the season with a .900 OPS, 30 homers, 70 RBI. Seems like a massive long shot, but I feel like the writers that vote on these awards look more at the counting stats and OPS than at defense, generally.
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