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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 10, 2024 5:12:33 GMT -5
STEAMER has him sixth among all first basemen in wOBA - only Olson, Freeman, Yandy Diaz, Vlad Jr., and Harper are better. Slash is .259/.370/.487, which looks right on, to me. If you look at his numbers, he never really had that one season where he put everything together in the minors either -- until he does, that looks like a totally reasonable projection, whether by computer or human. Projection systems don't generally project breakouts unless it's someone whose stat line showed that they got weirdly unlucky. You've nailed what the algorithm is doing, I'm pretty sure. They need three years of data (weighed 5 - 4- 3) and will convert ml numbers to MLB equivalents and then add in an average improvement given age and level.
Not only did Casas not burn up the minors, he didn't arrive in MLB early.
The unavoidable error here is the assumption that that Casas was trying to achieve the best results--as opposed to trying to learn how to achieve the best results, later. I always felt he was trying to do the latter, e.g., his experimentation with choking up on two strikes. His entire approach -- trying to match his bat angle to the ball angle, while worrying much less about timing, is radical, and certainly seems correct to me.
Among 1B he was 4th in MLB and 2nd after the ASB, in the two different major metrics I looked at (a few weeks ago!). I think he'll be better this year than last.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jan 10, 2024 8:02:57 GMT -5
If they are cheaping out everywhere else can they at least sign this guy to a long term extension? Should be the Sox middle of the order guy for years to come. Very excited for his future while he's here.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Jan 10, 2024 17:14:09 GMT -5
Because John Henry has dominated MLB by winning the most World Series championships of any team the last 20 years (& 4X the TOTAL of the other teams in the AL East), I expect they will see the value in signing a player like Casas long term.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 15, 2024 16:45:05 GMT -5
My favorite game from 2023 (before the sky fell)... The Sox were in SF to play the Giants. They won, their record was 57-46 and they were fighting for a wild-card spot riding a 5-game winning streak. Had they maintained that pace, they would have won something like 90 games. It all fell apart so it wasn't to be but it felt like they were on track back then. I'll bet Webb doesn't care if he sees Casas again for a long time. He got tattooed for two ridiculous drives, the second a moonshot HR that traveled 435 feet with a 109+ mph exit velocity. The first may have been even more impressive: a screaming liner that traveled at least 400' before bouncing over the wall to - not just one of the deepest - the deepest part of Oracle park. That's way off in right center and it is a real pop to get it out there and over the head of Yastrzemski who conceded immediately.
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Post by asm19 on Jan 16, 2024 7:55:56 GMT -5
It’s like they take took Dustin Pedroia’s self-confidence and inner monologue of “I’m awesome at baseball, I’m awesome at baseball, I’m awesome at baseball…”, and put it inside a colossus of a dude
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cdj
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Posts: 14,130
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Post by cdj on Jan 16, 2024 9:31:20 GMT -5
That’s the kind of self belief you need to thrive here
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Post by cmax on Jan 16, 2024 10:29:02 GMT -5
My favorite game from 2023 (before the sky fell)... The Sox were in SF to play the Giants. They won, their record was 57-46 and they were fighting for a wild-card spot riding a 5-game winning streak. Had they maintained that pace, they would have won something like 90 games. It all fell apart so it wasn't to be but it felt like they were on track back then. I'll bet Webb doesn't care if he sees Casas again for a long time. He got tattooed for two ridiculous drives, the second a moonshot HR that traveled 435 feet with a 109+ mph exit velocity. The first may have been even more impressive: a screaming liner that traveled at least 400' before bouncing over the wall to - not just one of the deepest - the deepest part of Oracle park. That's way off in right center and it is a real pop to get it out there and over the head of Yastrzemski who conceded immediately. As you referenced this moment before the sky fell, it is worth noting this was part of some strange scheduling snafu where the Red Sox had to do two separate West Coast trips a week apart while entering a gauntlet of games in consecutive days. Yoshida was hitting .313 at this point and totally fell off after those trips. Somehow it didn't mess up the young Casas but it really derailed the rest of the team. A big what if for me is if that had just been one West Coast trip, could they have been more competitive to buy at the deadline and make a push? Would Bloom then have been given the runway to see his transformation through. Anyhow, last year not likely to be their year in any scenario but your favorite game from 2023 reminds me of the cruelty of that scheduling moment that played some role in the sky falling shortly thereafter.
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Post by grandsalami on Jan 17, 2024 18:32:21 GMT -5
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 17, 2024 18:34:37 GMT -5
As if I needed more reason to like Casas. That's like my dream bday dinner. Two legit wagyu steaks. Lucky guy.
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Post by bluechip on Jan 17, 2024 18:38:57 GMT -5
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Post by grandsalami on Jan 17, 2024 18:55:36 GMT -5
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 17, 2024 19:02:30 GMT -5
I've been on the fence in regards to a Casas extension at this point in time but after reading this tweet I'm now all for it. The more I read on this guy the more he seems like a great building block on the next good sox team.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jan 17, 2024 19:25:54 GMT -5
As if I needed more reason to like Casas. That's like my dream bday dinner. Two legit wagyu steaks. Lucky guy. Damn! I am impressed. He's a big dude, but wagyu is heavy for most people due all the marbling. I almost polished off a whole tomahawk (not wagyu) for my birthday (#52, I think) a few years ago at sneaky good restaurant in SF. I cannot imagine eating a wagyu tomahawk, let alone that and a wagyu ribeye (and My diet is 85% meat, eggs, & butter, although my 5'7" 157lb frame doesn't compare to Casas - nor do my workouts).
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keninten
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Post by keninten on Jan 17, 2024 19:57:52 GMT -5
There are 4 types of Wagyu. One is Matsusaka.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Jan 17, 2024 20:32:17 GMT -5
I've been on the fence in regards to a Casas extension at this point in time but after reading this tweet I'm now all for it. The more I read on this guy the more he seems like a great building block on the next good sox team. I read your comment assuming it was based on the tweet about the steaks! Makes it a lot funnier.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 17, 2024 20:40:45 GMT -5
I've been on the fence in regards to a Casas extension at this point in time but after reading this tweet I'm now all for it. The more I read on this guy the more he seems like a great building block on the next good sox team. I read your comment assuming it was based on the tweet about the steaks! Makes it a lot funnier. Haha I won't like the story about the steaks doesn't hurt either. Give this man an extension and his weight in ribeye!
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Post by orion09 on Jan 17, 2024 21:28:43 GMT -5
As if I needed more reason to like Casas. That's like my dream bday dinner. Two legit wagyu steaks. Lucky guy. Damn! I am impressed. He's a big dude, but wagyu is heavy for most people due all the marbling. I almost polished off a whole tomahawk (not wagyu) for my birthday (#52, I think) a few years ago at sneaky good restaurant in SF. I cannot imagine eating a wagyu tomahawk, let alone that and a wagyu ribeye (and My diet is 85% meat, eggs, & butter, although my 5'7" 157lb frame doesn't compare to Casas - nor do my workouts). Wagyu’s not my favorite either, especially for a big steak - it’s like eating a slab of butter. Love the energy from Casas though. Lock him up!
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jan 17, 2024 22:03:32 GMT -5
STEAMER has him sixth among all first basemen in wOBA - only Olson, Freeman, Yandy Diaz, Vlad Jr., and Harper are better. Slash is .259/.370/.487, which looks right on, to me. If you look at his numbers, he never really had that one season where he put everything together in the minors either -- until he does, that looks like a totally reasonable projection, whether by computer or human. Projection systems don't generally project breakouts unless it's someone whose stat line showed that they got weirdly unlucky. You've nailed what the algorithm is doing, I'm pretty sure. They need three years of data (weighed 5 - 4- 3) and will convert ml numbers to MLB equivalents and then add in an average improvement given age and level.
Not only did Casas not burn up the minors, he didn't arrive in MLB early.
The unavoidable error here is the assumption that that Casas was trying to achieve the best results--as opposed to trying to learn how to achieve the best results, later. I always felt he was trying to do the latter, e.g., his experimentation with choking up on two strikes. His entire approach -- trying to match his bat angle to the ball angle, while worrying much less about timing, is radical, and certainly seems correct to me.
Among 1B he was 4th in MLB and 2nd after the ASB, in the two different major metrics I looked at (a few weeks ago!). I think he'll be better this year than last.
I'm kind of surprised the amount of baseball fans who do not understand what projections are and at least a basic understanding of them. It is a system applied to all the players so it will not by definition forecast breakout players it's not what these overall systems are designed to do. I developed my own for a fantasy league with the previous 3 weighed similar to the 5,4,3 noted above and had a separate one for predicting break-outs that was shockingly simple yet very accurate. For every position I'd take players aged 23 thru 26 and subtract HR from 2B. Those with the biggest difference I'd focus on. If they also maintained an OBP about .65 higher than their BA, then their was a better than 50/50 chance the player was about to take it to another level. Highly effective and very simple. Those still in fantasy leagues can thank me next year.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jan 17, 2024 22:18:32 GMT -5
Why would you extend a player after 1 season? The concept of risk-reward would beat those that suggest otherwise every time. It's like hitting on 19 in blackjack, it may work out but it's proven statistically not to do it. A minimum of 2 seasons should be the moment you even begin to think about it, never mind actually do it. The number of players who had a good first year that flamed out offsets all other prevailing thoughts here. Consistency is the benchmark that separates the average player from those above average. You cannot establish consistency in any league when you only played one year in it. The team should have done a psych test on each player and be aware of those who are willing to take risks and bet on themselves versus the risk-averse players. Even if I wanted to extend a player early I'd do everything I could to postpone it to after year 3, only with exceptional players like Betts who we know was willing to bet on himself, would I even try and get something done after 2 seasons and he's a generational type talent. That and the system is not built this way. It does nothing for the owners of the team who have no reason to give up their built-in leverage where players in their first 3 years have no bargaining to speak of. Even the first three years of arbitration in years 4 through 6 are loosely based on the curve so only exceptional players are paid exceptionally, relatively speaking of course. I think suggesting signing players long-term after a year is naive on several levels.
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keninten
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Post by keninten on Jan 17, 2024 22:27:25 GMT -5
Why would you extend a player after 1 season? The concept of risk-reward would beat those that suggest otherwise every time. It's like hitting on 19 in blackjack, it may work out but it's proven statistically not to do it. A minimum of 2 seasons should be the moment you even begin to think about it, never mind actually do it. The number of players who had a good first year that flamed out offsets all other prevailing thoughts here. Consistency is the benchmark that separates the average player from those above average. You cannot establish consistency in any league when you only played one year in it. The team should have done a psych test on each player and be aware of those who are willing to take risks and bet on themselves versus the risk-averse players. Even if I wanted to extend a player early I'd do everything I could to postpone it to after year 3, only with exceptional players like Betts who we know was willing to bet on himself, would I even try and get something done after 2 seasons and he's a generational type talent. That and the system is not built this way. It does nothing for the owners of the team who have no reason to give up their built-in leverage where players in their first 3 years have no bargaining to speak of. Even the first three years of arbitration in years 4 through 6 are loosely based on the curve so only exceptional players are paid exceptionally, relatively speaking of course. I think suggesting signing players long-term after a year is naive on several levels. If you sign them earlier you get them cheaper for more years. It is riskier of course, Joe Charboneau.
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Post by incandenza on Jan 18, 2024 1:37:58 GMT -5
Why would you extend a player after 1 season? The concept of risk-reward would beat those that suggest otherwise every time. It's like hitting on 19 in blackjack, it may work out but it's proven statistically not to do it. A minimum of 2 seasons should be the moment you even begin to think about it, never mind actually do it. The number of players who had a good first year that flamed out offsets all other prevailing thoughts here. Consistency is the benchmark that separates the average player from those above average. You cannot establish consistency in any league when you only played one year in it. The team should have done a psych test on each player and be aware of those who are willing to take risks and bet on themselves versus the risk-averse players. Even if I wanted to extend a player early I'd do everything I could to postpone it to after year 3, only with exceptional players like Betts who we know was willing to bet on himself, would I even try and get something done after 2 seasons and he's a generational type talent. That and the system is not built this way. It does nothing for the owners of the team who have no reason to give up their built-in leverage where players in their first 3 years have no bargaining to speak of. Even the first three years of arbitration in years 4 through 6 are loosely based on the curve so only exceptional players are paid exceptionally, relatively speaking of course. I think suggesting signing players long-term after a year is naive on several levels. Proven statistically? So you could go through the below list of all pre-arb players (i.e., guys who have yet to make it through year 3) that have signed extensions, and you're confident it would show that most were bad deals for the teams?
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jan 18, 2024 3:02:18 GMT -5
Lock THEM up.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Jan 18, 2024 11:36:40 GMT -5
Why would you extend a player after 1 season? The concept of risk-reward would beat those that suggest otherwise every time. It's like hitting on 19 in blackjack, it may work out but it's proven statistically not to do it. A minimum of 2 seasons should be the moment you even begin to think about it, never mind actually do it. The number of players who had a good first year that flamed out offsets all other prevailing thoughts here. Consistency is the benchmark that separates the average player from those above average. You cannot establish consistency in any league when you only played one year in it. The team should have done a psych test on each player and be aware of those who are willing to take risks and bet on themselves versus the risk-averse players. Even if I wanted to extend a player early I'd do everything I could to postpone it to after year 3, only with exceptional players like Betts who we know was willing to bet on himself, would I even try and get something done after 2 seasons and he's a generational type talent. That and the system is not built this way. It does nothing for the owners of the team who have no reason to give up their built-in leverage where players in their first 3 years have no bargaining to speak of. Even the first three years of arbitration in years 4 through 6 are loosely based on the curve so only exceptional players are paid exceptionally, relatively speaking of course. I think suggesting signing players long-term after a year is naive on several levels. If you sign them earlier you get them cheaper for more years. It is riskier of course, Joe Charboneau. I call your Charboneau & raise you a Wayne Garland. sabr.org/bioproj/person/wayne-garland/
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keninten
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Post by keninten on Jan 18, 2024 12:14:36 GMT -5
If you sign them earlier you get them cheaper for more years. It is riskier of course, Joe Charboneau. I call your Charboneau & raise you a Wayne Garland. sabr.org/bioproj/person/wayne-garland/Poor Cleveland. Tough to be an Indians fan.
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Post by grandsalami on Jan 18, 2024 23:06:31 GMT -5
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