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Post by James Dunne on Sept 5, 2023 15:02:17 GMT -5
If the Red Sox were competitive and the Orioles weren't I could see it. But Henderson's going to get both the narrative boost in addition to being the analytical choice. So unless we're talking like a 10+ homer month I don't think that's getting swayed.
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Post by dcsoxfan15 on Sept 5, 2023 15:09:13 GMT -5
I think that's probably right. Would love, for multiple reasons, a 10-15 homer month from Casas that puts us into the playoffs. That could certainly make it an interesting conversation.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 5, 2023 15:16:05 GMT -5
Yeah I think it would take Henderson hitting a wall and Casas going off. Highly unlikely.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 5, 2023 17:28:15 GMT -5
What Dunne said. The Orioles' rise is very compelling and Henderson's arrival nestles into that. That will play into it, as will the position he plays I think.
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Post by stunzisox on Nov 26, 2023 0:40:11 GMT -5
Dreaming on Triston’s sophomore season. .274/.388/.595 - 28 2B, 31 HR, 105 RBI. Am I just high and hopeful @domcaballero or is Triston about to secure his first Silver Slugger?
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Post by awalkinthepark on Nov 26, 2023 0:43:34 GMT -5
Dreaming on Triston’s sophomore season. .274/.388/.595 - 28 2B, 31 HR, 105 RBI. Am I just high and hopeful @domcaballero or is Triston about to secure his first Silver Slugger? Friends don't let friends drink and post on the soxprospects message boards.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Nov 26, 2023 1:01:19 GMT -5
Dreaming on Triston’s sophomore season. .274/.388/.595 - 28 2B, 31 HR, 105 RBI. Am I just high and hopeful @domcaballero or is Triston about to secure his first Silver Slugger? Friends don't let friends drink and post on the soxprospects message boards. I don't understand what drinking has to do with @stunzi's post...
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Post by pappyman99 on Nov 26, 2023 11:49:22 GMT -5
I got pretty close with Casas last year
.265 avg / .350 obp with 29hrs
For 2024 assuming health
.273 avg / .368 obp 31 HRS
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 26, 2023 13:31:13 GMT -5
That seems like a decent guesstimate. The only thing I'd tweak is the OBP. It stayed above his batting average by 100+ points for the entire year. Given the way his power emerged, there will be even more reluctance to throw him anything he can mash. But that just plays into his plate discipline and more walks.
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Post by brendan98 on Nov 27, 2023 14:37:23 GMT -5
Casas' average was .133 at the end of April, from that point on in 354 AB's he hit .291, I am not a believer in "but if you take away this slump he was actually" however with regards to Casas' season last year you can make the case that he figured some things out (got a little more aggressive in the zone) and that while still refining his approach over the rest of the season he hit .291 which is in my opinion/hope more indicative of what he is offensively than the .263 BA that he finished the season at:
Based upon the final 5 months of 2023, I would predict a +/- 10 range on his year next year and estimate: Batting Avg .280 - .300 On Base % .380 - .400 Slugging .500 - .520
The median for those numbers would be a .900 OPS compared to .857 in 2023. 30+ home runs seems completely doable, and hopefully the defense improves as well.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 27, 2023 14:57:15 GMT -5
FYI, with that kind of slash line, you're talking Bryce Harper numbers, or maybe Soto with a bit less OBP.
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Post by brendan98 on Nov 27, 2023 15:26:39 GMT -5
FYI, with that kind of slash line, you're talking Bryce Harper numbers, or maybe Soto with a bit less OBP. I get it, however I was originally going to use his post All-Star stats, but thought they might be a little too aggressive .317/.417/.617
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 27, 2023 15:36:15 GMT -5
It's worth mentioning that in his time in the minors and majors, he's only cleared a .280 batting avg once. That's probably a function of his selectivity at the plate: taking pitches that others would swing at and sometimes good pitches. That said, he's going to be in the same place for the entire season. He'll be seeing pitchers over and over and figuring out what they want to try to do to get him out. That learning curve is his to ride.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 27, 2023 16:10:03 GMT -5
Dreaming on Triston’s sophomore season. .274/.388/.595 - 28 2B, 31 HR, 105 RBI. Am I just high and hopeful @domcaballero or is Triston about to secure his first Silver Slugger? This may be overly technical, but that's just not enough extra-base hits to get to a .321 Iso. A .274 average, 31 homers, and 28 doubles, and 100 walks (enough to get you to that .388 OBP) in 650 PA gets you at about a .494 slugging. A .320 Iso is something more like 40 doubles and 45 homers. Ohtani, Judge, and Olson were the only players with more than 400 PA to hit that .320 Iso mark.
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Post by crossedsabres8 on Nov 27, 2023 16:40:29 GMT -5
Dreaming on Triston’s sophomore season. .274/.388/.595 - 28 2B, 31 HR, 105 RBI. Am I just high and hopeful @domcaballero or is Triston about to secure his first Silver Slugger? This may be overly technical, but that's just not enough extra-base hits to get to a .321 Iso. A .274 average, 31 homers, and 28 doubles, and 100 walks (enough to get you to that .388 OBP) in 650 PA gets you at about a .494 slugging. A .320 Iso is something more like 40 doubles and 45 homers. Ohtani, Judge, and Olson were the only players with more than 400 PA to hit that .320 Iso mark. They didn't mention the 25 triples
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 27, 2023 18:59:24 GMT -5
This may be overly technical, but that's just not enough extra-base hits to get to a .321 Iso. A .274 average, 31 homers, and 28 doubles, and 100 walks (enough to get you to that .388 OBP) in 650 PA gets you at about a .494 slugging. A .320 Iso is something more like 40 doubles and 45 homers. Ohtani, Judge, and Olson were the only players with more than 400 PA to hit that .320 Iso mark. They didn't mention the 25 triples NOW we're talking.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Nov 27, 2023 22:42:00 GMT -5
Would be pretty remarkable for the young fella to finally crack the .500 SLG mark as a big-leaguer. He's never reached it at any level thus far. I wonder how many have taken that path (Bagwell comes to mind but he only spent one full season in the minors, with a .333/.422/.457 line at New Britain).
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Post by asm19 on Dec 12, 2023 17:49:57 GMT -5
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Dec 13, 2023 1:41:34 GMT -5
Nice awareness and confidence. He is no longer a rookie. Speaks like a future team leader.
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Post by blizzards39 on Dec 14, 2023 0:36:04 GMT -5
Is anybody else irritated by Casas projections. Most have his counting stats actually decreasing on a per AB basis. Insonr think it's reasonable to expect the june to sept numbers, but it surely isn't impossible. There is alway chance of regression but with that eye I honestly don’t see how a high 300s OBA isnt as good a lock as anybody. And 40 HRs seems as likely as 20.
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Post by bluechip on Dec 14, 2023 4:43:58 GMT -5
Is anybody else irritated by Casas projections. Most have his counting stats actually decreasing on a per AB basis. Insonr think it's reasonable to expect the june to sept numbers, but it surely isn't impossible. There is alway chance of regression but with that eye I honestly don’t see how a high 300s OBA isnt as good a lock as anybody. And 40 HRs seems as likely as 20. Projections tend to have players regress to the mean. They have Ohtani and Judge have lower stats on a per at bat basis as well.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 14, 2023 9:00:28 GMT -5
STEAMER has him sixth among all first basemen in wOBA - only Olson, Freeman, Yandy Diaz, Vlad Jr., and Harper are better. Slash is .259/.370/.487, which looks right on, to me. If you look at his numbers, he never really had that one season where he put everything together in the minors either -- until he does, that looks like a totally reasonable projection, whether by computer or human. Projection systems don't generally project breakouts unless it's someone whose stat line showed that they got weirdly unlucky.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 14, 2023 9:11:38 GMT -5
When it comes to Casas I am not worried about the bat one bit, he should be a top 5-10 offensive 1st baseman in the league for the foreseeable future. What he needs to improve on more than anything is his defense because from the metrics he was close to being a guy that should be seeing more DH PT than 1st base PT. I doubt any GGs are in his future but if he can get to just slightly below average then that should increase his value/WAR a good amount.
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Post by asm19 on Dec 27, 2023 18:36:01 GMT -5
hey Craig if you’re reading this can you get the extension done okay thanks
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Dec 27, 2023 20:48:57 GMT -5
That hair is a silver slugger waiting to happen
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