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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 22, 2023 12:35:28 GMT -5
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Aug 22, 2023 13:08:49 GMT -5
It's been mentioned before, but all those teams had the option to claim him off waivers and only have to keep him on the 26-man roster for 90 days. All those teams declined, so why would they pick him when he has to spend the whole season on the 26-man? This would have been the ideal time for some team that was out of contention to take him, live with the 3 months of him taking a space since it would have had no meaningful impact on their season and then hope to develop hum into a playable or tradeable asset. The fact that no one even did that just further buttresses vermontsox1 point.
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Post by patford on Aug 22, 2023 13:14:38 GMT -5
It's been mentioned before, but all those teams had the option to claim him off waivers and only have to keep him on the 26-man roster for 90 days. All those teams declined, so why would they pick him when he has to spend the whole season on the 26-man? This would have been the ideal time for some team that was out of contention to take him, live with the 3 months of him taking a space since it would have had no meaningful impact on their season and then hope to develop hum into a playable or tradeable asset. The fact that no one even did that just further buttresses vermontsox1 point. If he isn't protected Dombrowski will likely pick him in the Rule 5 draft. That isn't to say he is worth protecting. Hopefully the Sox have a good idea of whether he is worth a 40 man spot by December.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 22, 2023 13:20:50 GMT -5
This would have been the ideal time for some team that was out of contention to take him, live with the 3 months of him taking a space since it would have had no meaningful impact on their season and then hope to develop hum into a playable or tradeable asset. The fact that no one even did that just further buttresses vermontsox1 point. If he isn't protected Dombrowski will likely pick him in the Rule 5 draft. That isn't to say he is worth protecting. Hopefully the Sox have a good idea of whether he is worth a 40 man spot by December. The guy who just let him go is going to turn around and pick him again? What could your logic possibly be here?
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Post by patford on Aug 22, 2023 13:30:40 GMT -5
If he isn't protected Dombrowski will likely pick him in the Rule 5 draft. That isn't to say he is worth protecting. Hopefully the Sox have a good idea of whether he is worth a 40 man spot by December. The guy who just let him go is going to turn around and pick him again? What could your logic possibly be here? The same logic as Dombrowski applied the first time. In a way it would be even more tempting because he got nearly a full season of baseball activities and now he can monitor what Song does with the Sox between now and December. Keeping in mind the majority of the time Song was on the IL he was throwing bullpens.
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 22, 2023 13:43:01 GMT -5
It seems like ~15-20 players get taken in the rule 5 every year. I'd be pretty shocked if there aren't across baseball 15-20 better prospects than Song left unprotected. Last year there was the possibility of the military service thing buying them an extra long look without needing a 40 spot.
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Post by terriblehondo on Aug 22, 2023 17:56:12 GMT -5
Well I hope the Sox keep him and he develops along the lines originally projected.
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Post by bosox904 on Aug 22, 2023 17:58:37 GMT -5
They cannot afford to fill the 40 man with all of Drohan, Gonzalez, Perales, Song and then also up for grabs will be Fernandez, Gambrell plus guys they traded for in Hagenmann and Nunez plus Politi again and Bastardo ranked highly in low minors also. There may be guys I am missing, but they will not protect all of those guys because they have a current roster they need to mostly keep intact, plus probably 2 Free Agent slots prior to the Rule 5 draft. They have 25 pitchers on 40-man now (inc 60-day IL who come back in offseason). Kluber, Rodriguez and Paxton will be off as free agents (though I would expect Paxton to potentially be in the mix for the FA signs mentioned above - still he comes off here). So that's 22 on roster + 2 FA signs before R5 maybe = 24 pitchers. They probably keep pitchers to ~22 of 40 spots in offseason. So in order to add pitchers, you first need to figure who comes off to sign FAs and keep roster at 22 pitchers. Barraclough, Garza, Jacques, Llovera, Mata, Mills, Ort and Robertson are all potentially guys they have to consider giving up. These guys serve as minor league depth, not just as names on a roster. To put Song on, you have to knock off one of these guys. I would expect if Barraclough does well, maybe they sign him back, but not before the R5 draft. Garza also seems easy to knock off. So with those guys off, you can sign 2 FA pitchers before R5 and stay at 22. Now decide how many of Jacques, Llovera, Mata, Mills, Ort and Robertson (6) you will knock off for Bastardo, Drohan, Gonzalez, Perales, Song, Fernandez, Gambrell, Hagenmann, Nunez and Politi (10). And your problem is that if you have injuries on the MLB roster, you don't ideally want to have to call up Perales for that. So you need a mix of ready-ish guys with your high upside prospects. So where does Noah Song fit in this? Drohan and Gonzalez (who will have ~50IP in AA only) will be protected. Just continuing in alphabetical order to not be overly specific, that costs you guys like Jacques and Llovera. I don't see them protecting Politi. So that leaves Mata, Mills, Ort and Robertson. I think it would be hard to protect more than 1, and certainly not more than 2, of Bastardo, Perales and Song, but all are in low minors and not ready to serve as true depth for MLB roster, where Gonzalez was already a stretch. I suspect they do not protect Bastardo or Song (unless he amazes in the next month). Perales maybe. But I guess the order would be Perales, Song, Bastardo for those 3. You can mix and match around this issue the specific names in some of the buckets, but this is generally why Song will be hard for us to protect and why it would be hard for anyone to do so because every team needs true AAA depth types on 40-man. I find it interesting there's all these pitchers that need protected because another team may take them, yet there's also the narrative the pitching in the system is weak.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 22, 2023 19:54:12 GMT -5
The guy who just let him go is going to turn around and pick him again? What could your logic possibly be here? The same logic as Dombrowski applied the first time. In a way it would be even more tempting because he got nearly a full season of baseball activities and now he can monitor what Song does with the Sox between now and December. Keeping in mind the majority of the time Song was on the IL he was throwing bullpens. For what it's worth, I'm pretty sure the logic the first time was there was a chance he spends 2023 on the military list then only needs 90 days some future season. Everyone reacted like DD knew he'd get his waiver but I think that was actually the plan backfiring.
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Post by patford on Aug 22, 2023 22:57:27 GMT -5
The same logic as Dombrowski applied the first time. In a way it would be even more tempting because he got nearly a full season of baseball activities and now he can monitor what Song does with the Sox between now and December. Keeping in mind the majority of the time Song was on the IL he was throwing bullpens. For what it's worth, I'm pretty sure the logic the first time was there was a chance he spends 2023 on the military list then only needs 90 days some future season. Everyone reacted like DD knew he'd get his waiver but I think that was actually the plan backfiring. That makes sense but wouldn't you think now that Song instead spent 2023 with the Phillies and Sox and then will need only 90 days next year would be tantalizing to Dombrowski? Seems to me Dombrowski was on the fence contemplating whether or not to add him right up to the last possible moment. Really though it's probably Song who will decide what's going to happen. If he finishes the season making progress and healthy and has a strong AFL the odds he will be protected go way up. It's also maybe saying something that the Sox apparently view him as a starter. Or at least want to explore that possibility.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 23, 2023 5:55:11 GMT -5
I don't know how you aren't getting this yet. He needs to spend all year in the roster if he's picked again.
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badfishnbc
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Post by badfishnbc on Aug 23, 2023 7:34:36 GMT -5
I'm not sure I follow this. He'd have to be on a team's 26-man roster all season if he's claimed in rule 5, right? Which, that's another thing that works against his getting picked: a team would have to stash him on their MLB roster as a 27 year old, Thad Ward-style, and then in 2025 he'd finally be able to get on a normal development track... when he's about to turn 28?
I'm suggesting that a team trades for him prior to the deadline and adds him to their 40-man, thus not exposing him to Rule 5 and not having to deal with the shenanigans of the 26-man roster and all its machinations. In exchange, we'd get a non-Rule 5 eligible player to ease our own crunch.
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Post by 0ap0 on Aug 23, 2023 7:52:36 GMT -5
I think with Song's unique situation, opinions about his future could be all over the place and prone to change based on one report, so I'm not feeling totally safe yet. You may not be feeling totally safe, but the downside if someone else plucks him is almost nil and the downside to bending over backwards to protect him could be meaningful.
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Post by patford on Aug 23, 2023 10:28:40 GMT -5
Any decision by the Sox or any other team will be based not on how he looks now but on what he looks like in early December at which point the Sox will have to decide whether to protect him or not. In the hypothetical that he finishes healthy and strong and then goes to the AFL and is looking really good that would be a big factor.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 23, 2023 10:36:51 GMT -5
To compare to the other player in the same R5 boat: I think there's a better chance that AJ Politi could stick on a roster, I think there's a greater chance that they end up regretting losing Politi if he were picked, and I think it's very unlikely that they protect Politi, given the other roster concerns.
Song has a narrow and difficult path back to the majors and it doesn't include being on a roster yet. If some team thinks it's important to stick it to the Red Sox by picking him, whatever - but the Red Sox can't manage their own roster based on fear of another executive's irrational spite.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Aug 23, 2023 10:38:06 GMT -5
Any decision by the Sox or any other team will be based not on how he looks now but on what he looks like in early December at which point the Sox will have to decide whether to protect him or not. In the hypothetical that he finishes healthy and strong and then goes to the AFL and is looking really good that would be a big factor. Just to nitpick - I believe the deadline is November 15 to add him to the 40-man (at least that was what it was last year - one month before the Rule 5 draft).
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 23, 2023 10:55:51 GMT -5
To compare to the other player in the same R5 boat: I think there's a better chance that AJ Politi could stick on a roster, I think there's a greater chance that they end up regretting losing Politi if he were picked, and I think it's very unlikely that they protect Politi, given the other roster concerns. Song has a narrow and difficult path back to the majors and it doesn't include being on a roster yet. If some team thinks it's important to stick it to the Red Sox by picking him, whatever - but the Red Sox can't manage their own roster based on fear of another executive's irrational spite. Put another way, the potential negative ramifications of using a 40-man spot on Song seem worse to me and more likely than those of losing him in the Rule 5 Draft. Maybe he shows us something down the stretch here that changes that but it seems unlikely.
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Post by patford on Aug 23, 2023 12:01:20 GMT -5
Any decision by the Sox or any other team will be based not on how he looks now but on what he looks like in early December at which point the Sox will have to decide whether to protect him or not. In the hypothetical that he finishes healthy and strong and then goes to the AFL and is looking really good that would be a big factor. Just to nitpick - I believe the deadline is November 15 to add him to the 40-man (at least that was what it was last year - one month before the Rule 5 draft). A couple pages back someone said Nov. 20. In any case that shaves off a couple or more weeks but is still after the AFL which is the point by which a decision will be made. I mean if by chance he's sitting 95 with command and good shape on his slider wouldn't the odds be he would be protected? No one knows right now. We'll just have to wait and see.
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Post by seamus on Aug 23, 2023 12:18:29 GMT -5
He's got an interesting story and would have been a 1st rounder under different circumstances, but the reality is that most systems probably have unheralded pitchers who are younger and have at least as much stuff to dream on. It seems incredibly unlikely that Song's stuff will tick up enough over the next month or so that a team would want to burn a 40-man roster spot on him, much less an MLB bullpen spot for a full season. If I was another organization interested in him, I'd just let him develop with the Red Sox in the minors and keep him in mind as a lower-tier guy to ask about during trade negotiations at the 2024 deadline.
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Post by bettsonmookie on Aug 23, 2023 12:47:52 GMT -5
Is there more pessimism now than in the past about a potential return to form?
IF he is able to put it together -- he would project to provide prime athletic years (28-31) on the rookie contract pay-scale.
From cost-controllability perspective, I like the upside (ala Kutter Crawford), but obviously the time away is fairly unprecedented.
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Post by jmei on Aug 23, 2023 12:51:50 GMT -5
Yes, if Song's fastball velocity ticks up two grades and he flashes improved command in the AFL, he could put himself in the Rule 5 picture. But you could say the same thing for just about every other Rule 5 eligible pitcher in the system. Unless and until it happens, it's a bit of a silly thing to fixate on.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 23, 2023 13:17:43 GMT -5
Yes, if Song's fastball velocity ticks up two grades and he flashes improved command in the AFL, he could put himself in the Rule 5 picture. But you could say the same thing for just about every other Rule 5 eligible pitcher in the system. Unless and until it happens, it's a bit of a silly thing to fixate on. To be fair, Song once was the player described as opposed to other pitchers who never were, which may marginally improve the chances of this happening, but that said... it's still incredibly unlikely. I guess read "unless he magically, instantly gets his 2019 stuff back" into anything I've said.
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Post by patford on Aug 23, 2023 13:59:34 GMT -5
Someone linked to the article in THE ATHLETIC : theathletic.com/4793656/2023/08/22/noah-song-red-sox-phillies-plan/?source=emp_shared_articleSome interesting bits in there. "Haviland, the Red Sox’s director of pitching development (hired in 2019)... worked with him closely back then and kept in touch with Song about once a month while he was in Naval flight training." -"Though Song was being ramped up with the Phillies to join the bullpen as a way for him to join their 26-man active roster, the Red Sox are stretching Song out as a starter in High-A Greenville. 'We think that’s the best path for him to get a bunch of innings but also a bunch of mound work in between his starts,' Haviland said." -"Haviland added. 'So now it’s just us getting his stuff back, getting his velocity back and pitch shapes back.'”
-"In the three outings, Song’s fastball velocity has fluctuated from 91 mph up to 97 mph but has been sitting in the low-to-mid 90s."
-"'There’s not really a build-up plan from four years off of baseball,' Haviland said. 'But I think we’re very confident, physically he’s in really good shape. Although there was a pretty quick build up with the Phillies, he was throwing a lot, so felt pretty confident we can get him on a starter routine and manage his workload that way and as we get to the end of the season see how he feels, see if he can handle more baseball this fall and winter or if we need to switch to a training focus and work on the physical stuff and pitch design. There’s no real blueprint, it’s a lot of communication with medical, strength, and sports science, as well as pitching coaches to monitor how he’s feeling and what some of our internal metrics are telling us about his readiness, so we’re taking it day by day.'”
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Noah Song
Jan 28, 2024 12:23:48 GMT -5
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Post by yaz1967 on Jan 28, 2024 12:23:48 GMT -5
So what will happen with Song in 24? There was so much chatter when DD grabbed him and tried to see if he could stick with the big league club. Any chance he could be a surprise in 24?
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gerry
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Noah Song
Jan 28, 2024 12:28:42 GMT -5
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Post by gerry on Jan 28, 2024 12:28:42 GMT -5
So what will happen with Song in 24? There was so much chatter when DD grabbed him and tried to see if he could stick with the big league club. Any chance he could be a surprise in 24? Interesting. He may well become the crown jewel of this new pitching program by 2025. Timing is good.
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