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Post by ryan24 on Apr 26, 2020 5:42:50 GMT -5
So, based on what we got for players, how do you rate this draft? What overall grade would you give it? I am thinking C C+.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 26, 2020 6:03:15 GMT -5
Players are only upgrades on paper at this point. Most never make it. A lot of pre-draft analysis is group think - it’s why a lot of rankings are so close together on players who have a high bust potential. Teams have different draft analysis than the “experts” due to a variety of reasons. When you get to picks 150+ if people are doing independent analysis, you should have a huge variance like massive - especially considering there’s no way you can dig up every player across college football. Like people were shocked the Pats took Onwenu over Runyan both from Michigan.
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Post by ryan24 on Apr 26, 2020 7:11:12 GMT -5
Understand what you are saying. First time in a long time that I am not sure what the pats have. Did not appear to address holes in roster. With the exception of the db's I am not sure any other area is strong. BUT, BB has been pulling rabbits out of the hat for years and winning super bowls. So what do I know. I guess the security blanket has always been Brady. I learn a lot from both you and umass about players and the team in general. I also take with a grain of salt what the experts have to say about draft grades. One expert wrote that the giants were losers because they picked Thomas over saimmons. Both are high quality players. Both will improve the team in areas of weakness. I guess the thinking comes back to one guy on defense will not improve the team as much as one guy on the line improving barkley and jones.
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Post by philarhody on Apr 26, 2020 10:11:44 GMT -5
Hey guys, until you show me this universal board in which Rohrwasser would not be drafted by any team until the 6th or 7th round, your arguments hold no water. Because Bill Belichick doesn’t get to see the Boards of 31 other teams either. Your general “consensus” that Rohrwasser is an undraftable player is about as valuable as ESPN giving Jake Fromm a second round grade.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 26, 2020 10:29:47 GMT -5
I guess he's just that obscure? Wasn't a top five guy, with only two getting draftable grades. I have zero issues drafting there guy, but take him late 6th or in the 7th. No one was going to take him. They just keep waisting value. BB seems to do it every year, in our eyes anyway, waisting value. |
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 26, 2020 10:51:16 GMT -5
After so many years of following the Pats religiously I have lost interest in trying to gauge the draft and the players taken. Sure their are guys I get excited about but the overall process is a lesson in futility. The only way to grade a draft class is after 2 or 3 years. I mean really how often does an UDFA make the team and perform better than most of the 2nd rd picks they have made? Think about that, just about every year the Pats have a UDFA that out performs the 2nd rd pick, that seems crazy but it's the truth. So it is about coaching and working hard in the end along with football IQ.
Who knows maybe Dugger ends up being a HOF type player and one of the TE's is the next Kittle or Uche, a guys who didn't even play much in college ends up being the next Bruchi. Only time will tell. It can be fun to follow and research but fact is you don't know shit for a few years. Example, we were so excited about Winn coming out of Georgia but 1 more injury and he has a long fight back to not being a bust. Does the RB out of Alabama ever touch the ball or is he this years stud? How about last years 2nd rd pick, the long CB hasn't done anything yet. What does Harry become, can they get him the ball?
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 26, 2020 11:24:02 GMT -5
Understand what you are saying. First time in a long time that I am not sure what the pats have. Did not appear to address holes in roster. With the exception of the db's I am not sure any other area is strong. BUT, BB has been pulling rabbits out of the hat for years and winning super bowls. So what do I know. I guess the security blanket has always been Brady. I learn a lot from both you and umass about players and the team in general. I also take with a grain of salt what the experts have to say about draft grades. One expert wrote that the giants were losers because they picked Thomas over saimmons. Both are high quality players. Both will improve the team in areas of weakness. I guess the thinking comes back to one guy on defense will not improve the team as much as one guy on the line improving barkley and jones. I’m not sure how you can say they didn’t address roster holes... they picked up two tight ends (biggest hole)... two lineback/edge guys (lost KVN, Collins and Roberts), kicker (didn’t have one), a safety (Chung is always hurt and in last year - plus Harmon is gone) and plethora of interior linemen (a weakness depth area for the team)... Other than QB and maybe if you wanted a receiver, they arguably hit every need area. Am I missing something? |
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Post by blucore on Apr 26, 2020 12:29:58 GMT -5
So, based on what we got for players, how do you rate this draft? What overall grade would you give it? I am thinking C C+. I'd go with a B. Obviously we're not going to know until we see the players on the field, but I like the positions that they targeted. A lot of potential in the day 2 picks. I like that they got younger and more versatile on defense. Dugger seems like the heir apparent to Chung. In the box safety who can man up on tight ends. I'd expect Dugger to be a situational player this year, maybe taking a more prominent role later in the season. D2 to the NFL is a massive leap, but it's hard not to love the physical profile and everything from the senior bowl people suggests he's very aware that he needs coaching. To me, this draft is a signal that the Pats are really doubling down with winning on defense and running the football. I think they are going to run more 22 and 12 personnel sets with a lot of play action to avoid overwhelming Stidham with difficult progressions. With $24m in guards, they better have a good running game! I was upset initially that they didn't pick up any receivers, but it kind of makes sense given they've already invested $9m in Edelman, a 2nd rounder in Sanu, and a 1st rounder in Harry. Why spend more draft capital on someone who is not likely to be an immediate upgrade over Sanu/Harry? (especially since they will probably have abbreviated passing/training camps for new receiver X to develop rapport with Stidham) I'm still firmly in the In Bill We Trust Camp, but this is gonna be a big season for that theory. |
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 26, 2020 14:27:30 GMT -5
post-draft grades are kind of stupid. I don't watch college football and even if I did, how much does college success translate to the NFL? Bill has had some horrific drafts as of late (no pro-bowler in 6 years).
I'm still high on N'Keal Harry so last year I'm hoping wasn't a complete bust. I will say that Bill doesn't get enough credit for drafting Garapollo considering it proceeded with Tom Brady's best 5 years of his career. I don't think that was a coincidence.
Speaking of Garapollo, the second round quarterback from Eastern Illinois was better than:
3rd pick Blake Bortles
22nd pick Johnny Manziel
31st pick Teddy Bridgewater
Maybe 36th pick Derek Carr
In that same draft, 8th overall draft pick Justin Gilbert was a complete train wreck.
Pre-draft analysis of Justin Gilbert:
DRAFT PROJECTION Round 1 (top 20)
BOTTOM LINE A big, fast, athletic, man-cover corner capable of locking down receivers and creating big plays in the return game. Is the most physically gifted cover man in this year's draft and has the athletic talent to walk into a starting job and match up with big receivers from Day One if he continues to work at his craft after a big payday and prepares like a pro.
With all of this said, Dugger was predicted to be a second rounder despite the complaining, Uche is considered by some to be the steal of this years draft, the two TEs they got are low floor, high ceiling guys, the kicker wasn't even considered a top ten pick so that's a head scratcher, got what seems to be a quality guard in the 5th and a nice depth OT in the 6th. I like that they went heavy on OL late in the draft because I feel like that's a position you can really find gold late. It also gives them depth to protect Stidham.
We'll see in 2-3 years.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 26, 2020 14:30:34 GMT -5
Also, the delayed started to the year (most likely) is going to be great for Sanu. People are sleeping on him a bit, but he had an injury that required surgery. Now, it's annoying how late that was found out, but if there's no OTA's and a delayed pre-season then he might be able to start on time with everyone else.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 26, 2020 15:20:16 GMT -5
Hey guys, until you show me this universal board in which Rohrwasser would not be drafted by any team until the 6th or 7th round, your arguments hold no water. Because Bill Belichick doesn’t get to see the Boards of 31 other teams either. Your general “consensus” that Rohrwasser is an undraftable player is about as valuable as ESPN giving Jake Fromm a second round grade. No extra team workouts and pro days killed Fromm. Heck it killed everyone that didn't have a good combine. Never seen a draft were all the speed guys went so early, it's like teams don't remember Jerry Rice. Look at KJ Hill the all-time leader in receptions at a place like Ohio State going in the 6th because he can a slow 40. Pinkney went undrafted because he did. In a normal year those guys would have had a chance to prove speed isn't everything, not this year. If there is one position where the draft is straight forward every year it's kicker. I can't remember the last guy that wasn't given a draftable grade getting picked. People had 2-3 guys this year and only one was picked. Bill took a guy not in the top ten. If you want to say anything can happen then show me a time when a kicker wasn't ranked top 10 and was picked. My draft Magazines don't even rank 10 kickers and punters total. They ranked five guys and two were picked. I've been a draft nut since before Bledsoe was picked and what Bill just did has never been done before. You really think the one other team who took the 1/2 guy was going to take him? Bill would tell you he didn't think he'd be drafted, he just went by his board. That's the problem though his board never looks at value. He did it last year with Cowart and Bailey, at least those guys had draftable grades. Bill just took the lowest ranked kicker in the history of the draft! That guy would have had a hard time even getting a contract as an undrafted guy! |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 26, 2020 15:28:57 GMT -5
Also, the delayed started to the year (most likely) is going to be great for Sanu. People are sleeping on him a bit, but he had an injury that required surgery. Now, it's annoying how late that was found out, but if there's no OTA's and a delayed pre-season then he might be able to start on time with everyone else. That's on Sanu, that injury was on that punt return. The great Bill who values special teams more than any other coach didn't have a return guy. Anyways Sanu waited to have surgery. At the same time is that really good for him? He didn't play with Stidham like a bunch of other guys did. He needed that extra work with Stidham because guys like Myers and Harry had all last year with him. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 26, 2020 15:52:42 GMT -5
A few things, reports say Bill was going to draft WR Jefferson at 23 but traded out after he went #22. I mean wow that would have changed things. Yet also kinda a head scratcher because he's best as a slot guy. Like did we not learn last year? You need a deep guy or the defense just closes in and takes away our short passes and running game. I'm kinda glad that didn't happen. Yet kinda shocked you'd go WR in the first, yet your guys gone so you don't take one at all?
Not taking a QB wasn't by design per Bill. What the heck does that mean? He had a chance to take every QB but the top three guys. Passed on guys like Fromm, Easson, Stanley etc multiple times. Which is fine, but it kinda seems by design.
The draft wasn't horrible, the value kinda bums you out. Yet they got some good players, just basically no value guys. They basically took everyone at the top of there range or way before it. Yet it was a weird draft in that basically no skilled guys dropped. That's the problem with need based drafting though.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 26, 2020 16:10:53 GMT -5
Also, the delayed started to the year (most likely) is going to be great for Sanu. People are sleeping on him a bit, but he had an injury that required surgery. Now, it's annoying how late that was found out, but if there's no OTA's and a delayed pre-season then he might be able to start on time with everyone else. That's on Sanu, that injury was on that punt return. The great Bill who values special teams more than any other coach didn't have a return guy. Anyways Sanu waited to have surgery. At the same time is that really good for him? He didn't play with Stidham like a bunch of other guys did. He needed that extra work with Stidham because guys like Myers and Harry had all last year with him. I'm assuming there's going to be some sort of condensed, delayed OTA and pre-season. In that case, it's good for Sanu since he wouldn't be ready on a normal timeline. I hope to never see him on special teams again. I'm hoping that him being a complete non-factor was due to the injury he suffered. |
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Post by ryan24 on Apr 26, 2020 16:23:25 GMT -5
Understand what you are saying. First time in a long time that I am not sure what the pats have. Did not appear to address holes in roster. With the exception of the db's I am not sure any other area is strong. BUT, BB has been pulling rabbits out of the hat for years and winning super bowls. So what do I know. I guess the security blanket has always been Brady. I learn a lot from both you and umass about players and the team in general. I also take with a grain of salt what the experts have to say about draft grades. One expert wrote that the giants were losers because they picked Thomas over saimmons. Both are high quality players. Both will improve the team in areas of weakness. I guess the thinking comes back to one guy on defense will not improve the team as much as one guy on the line improving barkley and jones. I’m not sure how you can say they didn’t address roster holes... they picked up two tight ends (biggest hole)... two lineback/edge guys (lost KVN, Collins and Roberts), kicker (didn’t have one), a safety (Chung is always hurt and in last year - plus Harmon is gone) and plethora of interior linemen (a weakness depth area for the team)... Other than QB and maybe if you wanted a receiver, they arguably hit every need area. Am I missing something? I do not think you are missing anything. Yes they got people but no one jumps out to me and says wow. Probably more a perception than fact. I do not think they got better. BUT, BB coaching and IQ seems to surprise me every year. I think with the loss of Brady I think they should of had a B or better draft and I do not think they did. BB has oversome what appears to be short comings before maybe he will again. |
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 26, 2020 16:45:05 GMT -5
I’m not sure how you can say they didn’t address roster holes... they picked up two tight ends (biggest hole)... two lineback/edge guys (lost KVN, Collins and Roberts), kicker (didn’t have one), a safety (Chung is always hurt and in last year - plus Harmon is gone) and plethora of interior linemen (a weakness depth area for the team)... Other than QB and maybe if you wanted a receiver, they arguably hit every need area. Am I missing something? I do not think you are missing anything. Yes they got people but no one jumps out to me and says wow. Probably more a perception than fact. I do not think they got better. BUT, BB coaching and IQ seems to surprise me every year. I think with the loss of Brady I think they should of had a B or better draft and I do not think they did. BB has oversome what appears to be short comings before maybe he will again. CBS Sports gave the Patriots first two picks an "A". Barstool gace Dugger a "B". SI gave Dugger a "C", but not for potential, but rather, SI felt like he didn't fill a need and recognized he has tremendous upside. In fact, Barstool seems to think the Patriots had the best draft considering the grades they've received from various outlets. www.barstoolsports.com/blog/1303460/the-patriots-got-the-highest-draft-grade-of-any-team-and-im-not-feeling-good-about-it |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 26, 2020 16:46:25 GMT -5
Understand what you are saying. First time in a long time that I am not sure what the pats have. Did not appear to address holes in roster. With the exception of the db's I am not sure any other area is strong. BUT, BB has been pulling rabbits out of the hat for years and winning super bowls. So what do I know. I guess the security blanket has always been Brady. I learn a lot from both you and umass about players and the team in general. I also take with a grain of salt what the experts have to say about draft grades. One expert wrote that the giants were losers because they picked Thomas over saimmons. Both are high quality players. Both will improve the team in areas of weakness. I guess the thinking comes back to one guy on defense will not improve the team as much as one guy on the line improving barkley and jones. I’m not sure how you can say they didn’t address roster holes... they picked up two tight ends (biggest hole)... two lineback/edge guys (lost KVN, Collins and Roberts), kicker (didn’t have one), a safety (Chung is always hurt and in last year - plus Harmon is gone) and plethora of interior linemen (a weakness depth area for the team)... Other than QB and maybe if you wanted a receiver, they arguably hit every need area. Am I missing something? Chung has missed four games in two years, not sure I'd say he was always hurt. Also Phillips one of there bigger free agent signings added depth there. It really wasn't a need for this year. I like drafting guys a year early, but they used their top pick also. I mean our 2nd year CB could have taken Harmon's role. It would have at least given him a role. I don't mind the pick and we do need a long-term safety. Yet you can also ask the question should they have picked someone else in the second round and went safety later. It didn't make my top five for needs for this year and they invested the most draft capital in it. Not surprising, yet I get questioning it also. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 26, 2020 16:49:49 GMT -5
I do not think you are missing anything. Yes they got people but no one jumps out to me and says wow. Probably more a perception than fact. I do not think they got better. BUT, BB coaching and IQ seems to surprise me every year. I think with the loss of Brady I think they should of had a B or better draft and I do not think they did. BB has oversome what appears to be short comings before maybe he will again. CBS Sports gave the Patriots first two picks an "A". Barstool gace Dugger a "B". SI gave Dugger a "C", but not for potential, but rather, SI felt like he didn't fill a need and recognized he has tremendous upside. In fact, Barstool seems to think the Patriots had the best draft considering the grades they've received from various outlets. www.barstoolsports.com/blog/1303460/the-patriots-got-the-highest-draft-grade-of-any-team-and-im-not-feeling-good-about-itThat's last year's draft haha. |
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 26, 2020 16:50:57 GMT -5
I’m not sure how you can say they didn’t address roster holes... they picked up two tight ends (biggest hole)... two lineback/edge guys (lost KVN, Collins and Roberts), kicker (didn’t have one), a safety (Chung is always hurt and in last year - plus Harmon is gone) and plethora of interior linemen (a weakness depth area for the team)... Other than QB and maybe if you wanted a receiver, they arguably hit every need area. Am I missing something? Chung has missed four games in two years, not sure I'd say he was always hurt. Also Phillips one of there bigger free agent signings added depth there. It really wasn't a need for this year. I like drafting guys a year early, but they used their top pick also. I mean our 2nd year CB could have taken Harmon's role. It would have at least given him a role. I don't mind the pick and we do need a long-term safety. Yet you can also ask the question should they have picked someone else in the second round and went safety later. It didn't make my top five for needs for this year and they invested the most draft capital in it. Not surprising, yet I get questioning it also. I think people are downplaying the ages of Chung and McCourty. I wouldn't be surprised if one, or both, of them looked like burnt toast this year. |
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 26, 2020 16:55:40 GMT -5
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Post by danredhawk on Apr 26, 2020 17:56:22 GMT -5
RedHawk Sam Sloman just sitting there and they take a kicker from Marshall? Sloman is small but he has really developed his leg and is super consistent. That is a bummer pick, and one that I think has a chance to bother me for a long time...
And that’s before even considering the fall out of that pick to this point...
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 26, 2020 18:13:31 GMT -5
RedHawk Sam Sloman just sitting there and they take a kicker from Marshall? Sloman is small but he has really developed his leg and is super consistent. That is a bummer pick, and one that I think has a chance to bother me for a long time... And that’s before even considering the fall out of that pick to this point... Seems like Bill liked the fact that he has kicked in poor conditions more than any of the other kickers. Probably a major reach, which sucks, but I can follow the logic. www.si.com/nfl/patriots/gm-report/why-patriots-chose-justin-rohrwasserHe REALLY needs to be right on a pick like this. High pick for a kicker (used a 4th on Gostkowski which paid off beautifully) and reached on a kid not considered top 10. Still, I do kind of like the logic if it makes sense (I don't really know the other kickers) and his ability to get hang time on kick offs to avoid the touchback seems nice. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 26, 2020 18:29:02 GMT -5
I’m not sure how you can say they didn’t address roster holes... they picked up two tight ends (biggest hole)... two lineback/edge guys (lost KVN, Collins and Roberts), kicker (didn’t have one), a safety (Chung is always hurt and in last year - plus Harmon is gone) and plethora of interior linemen (a weakness depth area for the team)... Other than QB and maybe if you wanted a receiver, they arguably hit every need area. Am I missing something? Chung has missed four games in two years, not sure I'd say he was always hurt. Also Phillips one of there bigger free agent signings added depth there. It really wasn't a need for this year. I like drafting guys a year early, but they used their top pick also. I mean our 2nd year CB could have taken Harmon's role. It would have at least given him a role. I don't mind the pick and we do need a long-term safety. Yet you can also ask the question should they have picked someone else in the second round and went safety later. It didn't make my top five for needs for this year and they invested the most draft capital in it. Not surprising, yet I get questioning it also. There’s a reason I listed the safety who was drafted first near the end of my needs list. It was a long term roster need not a short term one. But getting younger at safety to replace their starters is a legitimate long-term need and they’ll need 2 of them sooner than later so staggering the replacements makes a lot of sense. Chung next year (get his now), McCourty in 2 years (they’ll likely draft his next year). On Chungs injuries: That’s fair, but it’s also fair to say he was injured most of last year: Missed week 5 Left week 6 in first half- 8 snaps Missed week 7 Week 9 only played 40% of the snaps Week 10 was bye week (would have missed it) Missed week 11 Left week 12 early Left playoff game early. He was banged up all year last year - but yes he’d been fairly durable until then despite the 2018 concision and super bowl broken arm. I would have been fine not taking a safety, but going forward having a top safety is a big long term need. It’s just not a 2020 need. They got killed last year in that playoff game with Brooks in coverage so if they fixed that with this pick it’s actually a short term need as well. |
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Post by ryan24 on Apr 26, 2020 19:41:52 GMT -5
That's last year's draft haha. Grading out individual picks you can get A's because the pick seems to be rated against the pick # versus the prospect's rating going into the draft. 50'th pick in the draft and the guy was rated 40th on the overall prospect list . They added what appears to be OK players who can play at the pro level but no difference makers. Just an opinion. Like what was said before wait 2 to 3 years down the road to score the strength of this draft. I get the feeling that we are looking at a long season, assuming it is played. |
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Post by ryan24 on Apr 26, 2020 19:50:18 GMT -5
I applaud you guys who spend lots of time studying film on various players. ESPN loved Simmons a lot at the 3,4, 5 picks. CBS sports not so much. But when it is all said and done BB has won one hell of a lot more games and SB's than me, so I guess he know's what he is doing.
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