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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 13, 2020 6:16:56 GMT -5
I feel like Love is a guy they would take if he fell to the 3rd round but he’s not a first round guy for them. I think they really like Stidham. I find it hard to believe they’d leave themselves with just Hoyer and a rookie to compete with him if they didn’t really believe in him.
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Post by texs31 on Apr 13, 2020 7:00:45 GMT -5
I'm still not sure why BB drafting a RB in the first says that he's unpredictable. As a matter of fact, there is an argument that NOT taking a RB in the 1st is borderline negligent. Of course, that argument depends on 2 things being true:
1. You can identify RBs who will be successful in the NFL (however success is defined)
2. You believe the 2nd contract for a RB is doomed to failure (a reasonable concept given this longevity of players at that position and the deterioration of value in those 2nd contracts).
If you believe those 2 things, then not taking that guy in the 1st (and the subsequent "cheap" year that comes with it) would seem pretty silly.
I don't know if BB thinks this way but it certainly wouldn't surprise me if he did.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 13, 2020 8:47:22 GMT -5
I'm still not sure why BB drafting a RB in the first says that he's unpredictable. As a matter of fact, there is an argument that NOT taking a RB in the 1st is borderline negligent. Of course, that argument depends on 2 things being true: 1. You can identify RBs who will be successful in the NFL (however success is defined) 2. You believe the 2nd contract for a RB is doomed to failure (a reasonable concept given this longevity of players at that position and the deterioration of value in those 2nd contracts). If you believe those 2 things, then not taking that guy in the 1st (and the subsequent "cheap" year that comes with it) would seem pretty silly. I don't know if BB thinks this way but it certainly wouldn't surprise me if he did. Why does that equal RB in the first round? That's a checklist why you draft RBs and don't sign them as free agents no? At the same time most RBs aren't getting paid, the franchise tag is 10 million which is dirt cheap , Guard is 14 million for example. You can find good/great RBs anywhere in the draft to a bigger extent than any other position. I mean the top two rushers last year were 2nd round picks and #5 was a 7th round pick. The best RB I've ever seen the Patriots draft was Curtis Martin and he was 3rd round if I remember right. I'd much rather use my first round picks on guys you want to resign after they play out there rookie level deals at positions that are harder to fill. I'm not totally against it, yet it's highly questionable if Bill is even good at drafting RBs. His two first round picks is one bust and Michel who already looks like he's not the same guy. If your taking a RB in the first, you better be getting a darn good one! |
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mobaz
Veteran
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Post by mobaz on Apr 13, 2020 9:31:54 GMT -5
From ESPN's Bill Barnwell All Trade Mock: I just don't see it. In the draft, too many questions after Burrows to go all-in on any of them even if they fall. And at least this year, there are more available vet quarterbacks than jobs, if viable starters with question marks like Newton, Winston, Mariota, etc are lingering the market or settling for backup spots. I'm more open to Love at 23 if they REALLY like him, but not at a premium. I'd make that trade. Spread out the picks without losing one, and get a high ceiling tight-end (with injury history). www.espn.com/nfl/draft2020/story/_/id/29018757/2020-nfl-mock-draft-all-trades-32-picks-32-trades-bill-barnwell |
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Post by costpet on Apr 13, 2020 11:14:48 GMT -5
The sports drafts are the only thing sports wise that will be live for a long time. I still think the NFL season will somehow be cancelled. How do you put 60,000 people shoulder to shoulder by September? Or even November? MLB is done this year. All the various proposals to play you hear are non starters. Won't happen. Unless they come out with a vaccine.
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Post by texs31 on Apr 13, 2020 14:09:02 GMT -5
I'm still not sure why BB drafting a RB in the first says that he's unpredictable. As a matter of fact, there is an argument that NOT taking a RB in the 1st is borderline negligent. Of course, that argument depends on 2 things being true: 1. You can identify RBs who will be successful in the NFL (however success is defined) 2. You believe the 2nd contract for a RB is doomed to failure (a reasonable concept given this longevity of players at that position and the deterioration of value in those 2nd contracts). If you believe those 2 things, then not taking that guy in the 1st (and the subsequent "cheap" year that comes with it) would seem pretty silly. I don't know if BB thinks this way but it certainly wouldn't surprise me if he did. Why does that equal RB in the first round? That's a checklist why you draft RBs and don't sign them as free agents no? At the same time most RBs aren't getting paid, the franchise tag is 10 million which is dirt cheap , Guard is 14 million for example. You can find good/great RBs anywhere in the draft to a bigger extent than any other position. I mean the top two rushers last year were 2nd round picks and #5 was a 7th round pick. The best RB I've ever seen the Patriots draft was Curtis Martin and he was 3rd round if I remember right. I'd much rather use my first round picks on guys you want to resign after they play out there rookie level deals at positions that are harder to fill. I'm not totally against it, yet it's highly questionable if Bill is even good at drafting RBs. His two first round picks is one bust and Michel who already looks like he's not the same guy. If your taking a RB in the first, you better be getting a darn good one! You don't feel that getting an extra year of production before having to pay big money is a good draft/cap management strategy? |
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 13, 2020 15:00:57 GMT -5
Why does that equal RB in the first round? That's a checklist why you draft RBs and don't sign them as free agents no? At the same time most RBs aren't getting paid, the franchise tag is 10 million which is dirt cheap , Guard is 14 million for example. You can find good/great RBs anywhere in the draft to a bigger extent than any other position. I mean the top two rushers last year were 2nd round picks and #5 was a 7th round pick. The best RB I've ever seen the Patriots draft was Curtis Martin and he was 3rd round if I remember right. I'd much rather use my first round picks on guys you want to resign after they play out there rookie level deals at positions that are harder to fill. I'm not totally against it, yet it's highly questionable if Bill is even good at drafting RBs. His two first round picks is one bust and Michel who already looks like he's not the same guy. If your taking a RB in the first, you better be getting a darn good one! You don't feel that getting an extra year of production before having to pay big money is a good draft/cap management strategy? In a vacuum it is but if RB salaries are lower anyways then is that the position that you beat get the value at? |
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Post by texs31 on Apr 13, 2020 15:06:05 GMT -5
A couple more items:
1. While the hit on RBs may not be that large (relatively) that second contract usually requires guarantees/years that end up being ugly. How many times do we see the best RBs get big contracts that teams want to move on from well before they are over.
2. I really feel that picking examples of later RBs as successes is faulty. Wasn't long ago that Brady, Gabbert, Foles and Keenum were the "Final 4" QBs. Does that mean you shouldn't draft a QB 1st overall? Also, I haven't done the work, but I would think it would be more meaningful to give a "success rate" at different points of the draft of drafting (in this case) RBs. Lastly on this, do you think GMs would be willing to pass on the next Kamara, Curtis Martin or (insert your favorite RB here) bc they think they can get a RB later in the draft?
3. Your point on Bill not being good at drafting RB is valid. But that gets more into how he evaluates players than it does his draft strategy. If we could ever have a way to replicate his board, then figuring out "what he's going to do" would be pretty straight forward. He's going to try and get players that he fits his system best. He's going to move around the board to maximize the value of each pick. He's not likely to obsess over position (Yes, that is contrary to my idea on drafting a RB in the first but I was only offering that as 1 example as to why that doesn't necessarily mean he's so "unpredictable").
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 13, 2020 18:07:42 GMT -5
Why does that equal RB in the first round? That's a checklist why you draft RBs and don't sign them as free agents no? At the same time most RBs aren't getting paid, the franchise tag is 10 million which is dirt cheap , Guard is 14 million for example. You can find good/great RBs anywhere in the draft to a bigger extent than any other position. I mean the top two rushers last year were 2nd round picks and #5 was a 7th round pick. The best RB I've ever seen the Patriots draft was Curtis Martin and he was 3rd round if I remember right. I'd much rather use my first round picks on guys you want to resign after they play out there rookie level deals at positions that are harder to fill. I'm not totally against it, yet it's highly questionable if Bill is even good at drafting RBs. His two first round picks is one bust and Michel who already looks like he's not the same guy. If your taking a RB in the first, you better be getting a darn good one! You don't feel that getting an extra year of production before having to pay big money is a good draft/cap management strategy? Well it's good for all positions right? Isn't the question what position it matters the most? QB is obviously #1 and RB is dead last for me. The difference in the 5th year option and franchise tag is the smallest amount. Plus I look at 1st round picks as building blocks, hoping to get the next McCourty or Hightower. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 13, 2020 18:29:57 GMT -5
A couple more items: 1. While the hit on RBs may not be that large (relatively) that second contract usually requires guarantees/years that end up being ugly. How many times do we see the best RBs get big contracts that teams want to move on from well before they are over. 2. I really feel that picking examples of later RBs as successes is faulty. Wasn't long ago that Brady, Gabbert, Foles and Keenum were the "Final 4" QBs. Does that mean you shouldn't draft a QB 1st overall? Also, I haven't done the work, but I would think it would be more meaningful to give a "success rate" at different points of the draft of drafting (in this case) RBs. Lastly on this, do you think GMs would be willing to pass on the next Kamara, Curtis Martin or (insert your favorite RB here) bc they think they can get a RB later in the draft? 3. Your point on Bill not being good at drafting RB is valid. But that gets more into how he evaluates players than it does his draft strategy. If we could ever have a way to replicate his board, then figuring out "what he's going to do" would be pretty straight forward. He's going to try and get players that he fits his system best. He's going to move around the board to maximize the value of each pick. He's not likely to obsess over position (Yes, that is contrary to my idea on drafting a RB in the first but I was only offering that as 1 example as to why that doesn't necessarily mean he's so "unpredictable"). 1) I'm confused, I thought your point was get the 5th year because you don't want to pay a guy? I don't really see the value because you can just franchise him or pay him. RBs aren't getting 20 to 35 million like QBs and WRs. A mistake at other positions will kill you more than a RB. Yet I'd just do what the Titans did with Henry and franchise him. I'd do the same thing next year also if you wanted him back. It would give you six years for amount 30 million. 2) That's just not true. I listed the top RBs by yards, you looked at QBs in the playoffs how is that equal? You can always find steals, yet RB is by far the easiest position to find real talent latter in the draft year after year. Almost every year you'll find 1,000 rushers after the first round. Getting a Brady in the 6th round is a once every 100 years type thing. 3) I think Bills biggest issue is he doesn't draft enough RBs. Given how you can easily find steals latter in the draft and how they don't last long you should be drafting a lot of them. Bill doesn't he has preferred getting older veterans on cheap free agent deals. Like at the minimum I'm drafting a late round guy this year and seeing if he can beat out Burkhead. Yet I certainly wouldn't mind Hyde on a small deal either. Which is a perfect example of good free agent RB not getting paid. |
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Post by texs31 on Apr 14, 2020 6:30:56 GMT -5
1. Let's take Alvin Kamara. If he was taken in the 1st round, the Saints get an extra year from him before they have to make him the highest paid RB in the league bc they have the 5th year option. So compare what ever his 5th year salary would be to whatever you'd have to extend him at is a significant cap savings. That being said, my point was only to highlight that there is an alternative strategy around drafting RBs so, unlike your original point, you can't delineate any information from the fact that BB took a RB in the first.
2. The QB example was hyperbole. My larger point is that just finding RBs late that have success doesn't highlight that you don't take them early. How many misses do teams have to make to find the running backs. As my caveat that starts that point indicates, I don't know. But THAT would be the more important metric than just listing off guys who have had success. You can do that at any position.
3. Draft a RB late or sign a UDFA. Bill invariably does one or the other (usually the later) and there is marginal difference.
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Post by costpet on Apr 14, 2020 8:31:30 GMT -5
It's possible there may be 2 rookie classes. This year's and next if there's no season this year. Picture the scouts figuring that one out.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 14, 2020 9:01:55 GMT -5
Christian McAffrey just reset the running back market but I’d make the argument he is as much a receiver as a running back so he’s kind of unique. Also, he sighed the extension after year 3 which I think is the key. Carolina isn’t getting a 5th year option on him and most elite running backs would hold out if they don’t get an extension.... see Gordon (not really elite) and Elliott.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 14, 2020 16:49:06 GMT -5
1. Let's take Alvin Kamara. If he was taken in the 1st round, the Saints get an extra year from him before they have to make him the highest paid RB in the league bc they have the 5th year option. So compare what ever his 5th year salary would be to whatever you'd have to extend him at is a significant cap savings. That being said, my point was only to highlight that there is an alternative strategy around drafting RBs so, unlike your original point, you can't delineate any information from the fact that BB took a RB in the first. 2. The QB example was hyperbole. My larger point is that just finding RBs late that have success doesn't highlight that you don't take them early. How many misses do teams have to make to find the running backs. As my caveat that starts that point indicates, I don't know. But THAT would be the more important metric than just listing off guys who have had success. You can do that at any position. 3. Draft a RB late or sign a UDFA. Bill invariably does one or the other (usually the later) and there is marginal difference. RBs have the lowest franchise number outside kicker/punter. That savings you talk about is the smallest gap for all positions! I think RJP made a great point most RBs won't play on the 5th year tender anyways, so does it even have any value? The difference from 5th year option, to franchise tag to new contract is the smallest amount at RB of any position! Do you think the Titans regret not taking Henry in the first so his # is $8 million instead of $10 million? I gave two examples of why I think Bill will do anything in the first round, a WR which he had never before taken one. Then a RB who has the least value in the first round. Do you not agree he'll do anything? I don't think you have an issue with what I'm saying, you just think RBs have a lot more value in the first round than most teams do. It's why teams are moving away from taking them in the first round. Heck even the Patriots only took one with a 2nd late first round pick. Which looked like a rare win now move because Brady was getting crazy old and it worked for one year at least. 2) It's a known fact about RBs. Plenty of material out there that backs up my points. Every position has busts. Like how many high first round QBs did the Browns take till they found a good one? At the same time your chances of finding franchise QBs in later rounds is horrible, the opposite of RBs. 3) Overall that's true. I feel it's because Bill doesn't draft enough RBs like other teams do. In like the last ten years he's taken what three true RBs? Ridley, Michel and Harris, then your receiving RBs like Vereen and White. Hopefully the Harris picks shows he's changing his ways. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 14, 2020 16:53:41 GMT -5
Christian McAffrey just reset the running back market but I’d make the argument he is as much a receiver as a running back so he’s kind of unique. Also, he sighed the extension after year 3 which I think is the key. Carolina isn’t getting a 5th year option on him and most elite running backs would hold out if they don’t get an extension.... see Gordon (not really elite) and Elliott. Nothing crazy though it went from 15 to 16 million. Heck that's close to what Hopkins was making and he was going to holdout for a new deal. I don't get doing a new deal after three years though, like didn't they watch what happened to Gurley? After five years they cut him because of one injury. I will always wait on giving RBs a new deal. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 14, 2020 18:59:12 GMT -5
Christian McAffrey just reset the running back market but I’d make the argument he is as much a receiver as a running back so he’s kind of unique. Also, he sighed the extension after year 3 which I think is the key. Carolina isn’t getting a 5th year option on him and most elite running backs would hold out if they don’t get an extension.... see Gordon (not really elite) and Elliott. Nothing crazy though it went from 15 to 16 million. Heck that's close to what Hopkins was making and he was going to holdout for a new deal. I don't get doing a new deal after three years though, like didn't they watch what happened to Gurley? After five years they cut him because of one injury. I will always wait on giving RBs a new deal. Gurley Tore his ACL in college in the same knee he injured in the NFL. He was a lot higher risk and I’m pretty sure the knee was a concern at the time of the contract. I haven’t seen the details but does the extension kick in at the end of this year or does it replace the year. I don’t think it can replace the year but wasn’t sure |
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 15, 2020 5:25:04 GMT -5
Running back is a weird position because you do find gems late and undrafted but that doesn’t mean it’s easy to do. Running back probably has the most talent out of any position out there and they also turn over faster than any other position. Almost any back can be productive if they run hard and hit the hole, is this maybe why later picks/undrafted have successes at least in short terms? Chip on their shoulder... the position relies heavily on the blocking of the line, if you get great blocking then an ok back becomes very productive.
Bill wants his backs to be good at blitz pickup and fall forward. I wonder if he’d even want Barry Sanders, ya know?
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 15, 2020 5:26:54 GMT -5
I’ve never been less prepared for a draft in my adult life... I literally know nothing. I couldn’t figure out why until this morning, chasing my 17 month old daughter around..: this corona should leave me with more time but she sucks it all up... worth it tho but I’m going to try and get up to speed a little.
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Post by ryan24 on Apr 15, 2020 6:14:41 GMT -5
Wild and crazy times. I think there will be a season. But no fans in the stands. Games limited to players coaching staff and officials, and reduced numbers for all three. Very limited interaction with broadcasters and writers. All things that can be closely controlled. Constant testing and monitoring. Probably some kind of isolation practice. Congress will look into aid for lost fan ticket revenue. The owners and the union will look at reduced salaries possibly being recovered over 1 or 2 years. BUT, now more fans at bars and restaurants? Big house parties with lots of close contact? Non controlled and no monitoring? Yikes!
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Post by texs31 on Apr 15, 2020 6:17:40 GMT -5
So a team is going to ignore 5M in cap savings (RB tag is ~10M and the Cap hit for a bottom of the 1st rd RB is in 4-5M range?) bc it's the smallest difference in the league? Smallest doesn't equal non-existent. Players have been cut for significantly less than a 5M savings.
And that ignores the other component of the set-up of the point is that IF a GM believes the 2nd contract for a RB is dangerous (bc of the short shelf-life for RBs).
I'm not even advocating this but, again, offering it as a plausible reason for a team to take a RB in the first and, therefore, not necessarily an indication of Bill's "unpredictability".
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Post by texs31 on Apr 15, 2020 6:20:04 GMT -5
Been following Evan Lazar's Patriots Top 50 draft board (10 players at a time with 50-31 already out) as the first 4 Patriots picks were all on it. Also, Phil Perry's Pro-typical Patriots also had many of BB's picks on it last year. At least it narrow's down your focus (even if it means missing on some players).
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Post by ryan24 on Apr 15, 2020 6:35:11 GMT -5
Interesting situation for the Pats this year. No Brady. No cap space. Lots of holes to fill. umass and others have said numerous times that in years past Bill is totally unpredictable. Pretty much each area of the team needs help. One area that has always seemed to be a strength is volume of NFL players on the roster to in for injuries during the season. Does not look like that is here now. I would say ON PAPER the pats are second in the division behind the bills. and somewhat ahead of the jets and the fins. Not saying the sky is falling, but not as optimistic as past years. With this year's draft format I do not think that there will be a lot of trading in real time like in the past. But, I think you may see more trading the next day or the next week. I think unless someone comes up with a great deal moving down is not necessarily going to happen. With the total number of picks I can see moving up more likely. O line, TE, and defense front 7 are al possibilities. We shall nest Thursday.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 15, 2020 8:22:22 GMT -5
I’ve never been less prepared for a draft in my adult life... I literally know nothing. I couldn’t figure out why until this morning, chasing my 17 month old daughter around..: this corona should leave me with more time but she sucks it all up... worth it tho but I’m going to try and get up to speed a little. IMO I say don't bother as you can get up to speed on the Pats draft class after the fact. I have been following it for a long long time and the mocks are just a way to know the players, beyond that they aren't accurate beyond the 1st round. Much more important that you get as much as possible out of your daughter as she is growing up, you only get one opportunity at that. One of the most rewarding times in life, getting to watch your kids grow. Just my opinion but soak up those memories as they are the best. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 15, 2020 9:00:24 GMT -5
I’ve never been less prepared for a draft in my adult life... I literally know nothing. I couldn’t figure out why until this morning, chasing my 17 month old daughter around..: this corona should leave me with more time but she sucks it all up... worth it tho but I’m going to try and get up to speed a little. IMO I say don't bother as you can get up to speed on the Pats draft class after the fact. I have been following it for a long long time and the mocks are just a way to know the players, beyond that they aren't accurate beyond the 1st round. Much more important that you get as much as possible out of your daughter as she is growing up, you only get one opportunity at that. One of the most rewarding times in life, getting to watch your kids grow. Just my opinion but soak up those memories as they are the best. Yeah I more meant staying up past 8pm than not spending time with her to study a worthless draft. She exhausts me. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 15, 2020 14:06:13 GMT -5
Running back is a weird position because you do find gems late and undrafted but that doesn’t mean it’s easy to do. Running back probably has the most talent out of any position out there and they also turn over faster than any other position. Almost any back can be productive if they run hard and hit the hole, is this maybe why later picks/undrafted have successes at least in short terms? Chip on their shoulder... the position relies heavily on the blocking of the line, if you get great blocking then an ok back becomes very productive. Bill wants his backs to be good at blitz pickup and fall forward. I wonder if he’d even want Barry Sanders, ya know? It's relative to all other positions. Imagine if you had 2-3 QBs passing for over 3,000 yards being picked after the 1st round most drafts. I just wish we'd get a guy like Curtis Martin again. Yeah any decent RB can run behind a great line, the really good ones make the line look better. When was the last RB we had that did that? Bill certainly has a type, he likes bigger power backs like Smith, Dillion, Edwards, Blount, Ridley, but seems to have gotten away from that recently. Who knows about Sanders, I'm sure he wouldn't target him. What's going to be interesting is how he adapts going forward. Like does he do the same type of thing or change things up without Brady? |
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