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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 15, 2020 14:41:23 GMT -5
So a team is going to ignore 5M in cap savings (RB tag is ~10M and the Cap hit for a bottom of the 1st rd RB is in 4-5M range?) bc it's the smallest difference in the league? Smallest doesn't equal non-existent. Players have been cut for significantly less than a 5M savings. And that ignores the other component of the set-up of the point is that IF a GM believes the 2nd contract for a RB is dangerous (bc of the short shelf-life for RBs). I'm not even advocating this but, again, offering it as a plausible reason for a team to take a RB in the first and, therefore, not necessarily an indication of Bill's "unpredictability". Umm isn't the 5th year option the top 25%, with the franchise tag being top 10%? It's like 8 million versus 10 million, not sure where you get 4-5 million. How many RBs have played under the 5th year option? If your whole theory revolves around that 5th year, doesn't that matter? In recent memory I can't remember a good RB doing that, which makes it rather worthless no? All of the good RBs that would have been good value recently haven't played on it, Zeke, Gurley, McCarthy, heck even Gordon did a long holdout. Bell got franchised and held out. I think the much better case would be best player available. You could make a case that RBs have become undervalued when most years the best one doesn't get picked till mid to late first round and you have years with zero first round RBs. Yet waisting that 5th year option is a big reason for that. It's like the opposite of what you've been trying to argue.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 16, 2020 5:03:22 GMT -5
When was the last time a top RB made the Super Bowl? Does Gurley count? He was a shell at that point and they picked Anderson up off the scrap heap and got a lot of what Gurley would have provided. Even if we give Gurley then who’s next?
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 16, 2020 5:30:58 GMT -5
There are some reports the Bucks want to trade Howard. I’d take him here... maybe they want Gronk. Get Howard for cheap to release Gronk or can we trade Gronks rights?
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Post by texs31 on Apr 16, 2020 6:55:10 GMT -5
Well, last year, I made the case that Bill didn't draft a RB in the 1st round. He drafted the player he felt would have the most success in his system . . . who happened to be a RB.
But you refused to budge then so I tried a different approach to try and convince you that Bill drafting a RB wasn't a bad idea (or whatever words you chose) or, now, a sign of his unpredictability.
I'll have to go back and research the 5th year option on 1st Rd RBs versus the 4th year deal on Post-1st Rd RBs (IF it happens to be the case that it's less about 5th year options and more about last year of a RBs deal).
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mobaz
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Posts: 3,044
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Post by mobaz on Apr 16, 2020 8:27:55 GMT -5
Someone I hadn't thought much of, but this sounds like a solid fit for the Danny Amendola role and should be in range for the Pats:
(via PFF on ESPN)
WR K.J. Hill, Ohio State Position ranking: 15 Overall ranking: 73
Hill can consistently beat man coverage from the slot, and that's not a projection, either. His route running is already at an NFL level on the underneath and intermediate route trees. While he doesn't possess great speed (4.6 40 at the combine), doesn't have a big catch radius and is likely stuck in the slot, he'll still be a productive NFL receiver for a team that uses a lot of three-receiver sets. He won all but one of his routes in the one-on-ones during the Senior Bowl practices, and his ability to get off the line of scrimmage is already incredibly advanced.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 16, 2020 16:31:32 GMT -5
When was the last time a top RB made the Super Bowl? Does Gurley count? He was a shell at that point and they picked Anderson up off the scrap heap and got a lot of what Gurley would have provided. Even if we give Gurley then who’s next? I think he does, he was a big reason they were so good that year. Falcons were a big running team, with two good but not great RBs. Then Lynch with the Seahawks and they almost or likely should have won two Superbowls. Heck while Michel hasn't been great, his best stretch was the 2018 season helping us win a Championship.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 16, 2020 16:33:59 GMT -5
There are some reports the Bucks want to trade Howard. I’d take him here... maybe they want Gronk. Get Howard for cheap to release Gronk or can we trade Gronks rights? Add him to the other five targets, we really need to make a trade and draft some guys. As far as I know you can trade Gronk, but why? He's winning WWE titles already lol.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 16, 2020 16:56:15 GMT -5
Well, last year, I made the case that Bill didn't draft a RB in the 1st round. He drafted the player he felt would have the most success in his system . . . who happened to be a RB. But you refused to budge then so I tried a different approach to try and convince you that Bill drafting a RB wasn't a bad idea (or whatever words you chose) or, now, a sign of his unpredictability. I'll have to go back and research the 5th year option on 1st Rd RBs versus the 4th year deal on Post-1st Rd RBs (IF it happens to be the case that it's less about 5th year options and more about last year of a RBs deal). Well there's a difference between RBs might be undervalued if you pick the right one and the Patriots taking Michel. A guy with a huge red flag medical history. Who's already had two cleanup procedures since we drafted him. It frankly looks like he took the wrong guy and should have taken Chubb! Who's also been a much better receiver also. So you think Bill is predictable making draft picks? Like WTF are you arguing? You have Kiper saying he has no clue what the Patriots will do, but you've now made like four posts trying to say that isn't true? I think the issue is you seem to value RBs like it's 20 years ago. My thoughts on them match up with the current reality in the NFL. I mean what is there one RB projected to be picked in the first round? You didn't research it before claiming that was what made it smart business to take RBs in the first round?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 16, 2020 17:14:30 GMT -5
Everyone knows I love Claypool as an outside WR,yet Mims from Baylor is about everything you want in a WR physical also. Great size, great 40, awesome three cone time. I worry about Baylor WRs because they run a limited route tree, yet we need a deep threat!
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Post by philarhody on Apr 17, 2020 11:55:32 GMT -5
I forget which one of you shared The Draft Network mock draft machine. But sort of fun. Every once and a while, you get a wonky one:
1-23. Justin Herbert, QB 3-87. Isaiah Wilson, OT 3-98. Cole Kmet, TE 3-100. Brycen Hopkins, TE 4-125. Kenny Willekes, EDGE 5-172. David Woodward, LB 6-195. Derrek Tuszka, EDGE 7-204. Antonio-Gandy-Golden, WR 7-212. Jauan Jennings, WR 7-213. John Hightower, WR 7-230. Essang Bassey, CB
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 17, 2020 18:07:59 GMT -5
The funny thing is it looks like Herbert is the big steal, when in reality it's Kmet that is. I can't find it, but a tweet showed amount of misfired passes 5-19 yards with receiver open Love was like 15%, Herbert was at 17%, Herbert value wise is much more of a mid first round guy than top five guy. Tua, Burrows and Hurts were all around 5%.
I'm a little confused by the TE class and mocks. So many have the top TEs falling, when recent history shows they have been rising on draft day. Compare Kmet to TJ and Gronk, he's the biggest of the three and they are all about as fast 4.7, 4.7, 4.68. Kmet and TJ had basically the same verticals and broad jumps, which were much better than Gronks. The only thing TJ was better at was three cone drill, Gronk didn't do one and I bet he wouldn't have been that great. Both TJ and Gronk were more ready as blockers but that's more of a Notre Dame thing were they use TEs as Blockers or Receivers. He basically only had one year of blocking duties and even then was much more receiver as Notre Dame #2 guy. Yet the tape shows his ability to make crushing blocks. I don't see even a 1% chance he falls to the late third, heck there's a better chance he goes late first than that. Usually in weak classes the top guys rise, not fall and almost everyone has Kmet as the #1 guy. Yet I also see tons of mocks with the TE from Dayton going late third also. Small school guy, yet most have him as the #2 TE and he had an elite three cone time.
Todd McShay doesn't even have Hopkins in his top ten TE rankings, but he's a Ben Watson/Hernandez type TE. All receiver no blocking, yet he does make sense and we need TEs. If you don't trade for a guy, we almost have to take two guys.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 17, 2020 18:38:26 GMT -5
I saw that as well. Someone tweeted it... I wouldn’t mind Hurts or Fromm in the 3/4
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 17, 2020 18:50:26 GMT -5
musketfire.com/2020/01/15/grading-new-england-patriots-19-draft/How do these guys get jobs writing about things they know nothing about? Michel is the power back and Burkhead is the shifty RB? Like do you watch any games. I thought Harris was the power RB to Michel shifty style. The OT couldn't come back after not being on the first 53 roster. The amazing thing is Stidham was our number seven pick, we picked six guys before him. If he's the starter that is amazing and a perfect example of how the Patriots stay true to there draft board and don't chase after need. Yet it also results in no TEs when it's a huge need.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 17, 2020 19:01:47 GMT -5
I saw that as well. Someone tweeted it... I wouldn’t mind Hurts or Fromm in the 3/4 I think it's a little misleading because Hurts struggles with accuracy and the offense didn't ask him to make as many hard throws. He was also surrounded with some of the best talent year after year. Yet there's also a lot to like about the guy and yeah value wise which the Patriots are all about those are my picks. Yet I'd consider Herbert if he fell to 23, I'm not trading up to top 5/10 to get him though. Outside of Love he had the least amount of talent surrounding him compared to other guys. I still think Fromm is the most underrated QB in the draft. He's just a smart gamer type QB. Yet his arm is so-so and he's not a dual threat type guy. Yet I've seen him make money throws with the game on the line twice to beat Notre Dame.
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mobaz
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Posts: 3,044
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Post by mobaz on Apr 17, 2020 19:24:20 GMT -5
I'd much rather the high range of outcomes for Hurts than the low ceiling of Fromm. The game has moved away from Fromm types. I don't think Hurts makes it to 3.87 though.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 18, 2020 4:38:09 GMT -5
www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2020-nfl-draft-wonderlic-test-scores-revealed-tua-tagovailoa-ranks-lowest-among-quarterbacks-per-report/amp/Kinda confirms what we already knew Fromm is a very smart guy. I mean in recent memory he's closer to Brady than most QBs. Makes the right throws, stands in the pocket, doesn't make many mistakes, will throw it away over making a so-so throw. I don't think the game has moved away from guys like Fromm. He's certainly not for every team, but he fits our system and at worst looks like a great back-up. Bills MO is certainly more smart guys that are leaders than upside guys. Brady scored a 33, Stidham had a 27. 18 is low. Have any of you taken it? I took it for my first job interview. The guy never explained the rules, just gave it to me and timed me. Long story short I got 20 out of 24. I didn't know to skip the ones you didn't know. It's about how many you get right, the wrong don't matter. You needed a 21 to pass, so he asked me 25, which I knew, so he passed me. These QBs spend a bunch of prep time practicing these tests. They know the rules, so getting below 20 is kinda bad. You need a 21 with no practice to sell insurance. Glad I turned that job down lol. I think Bill is intrigued by a guy like Hurts. He checks a bunch of boxes, but there are also some red flags. For Bill it isn't just talent, if it was he'd bring in Winston or Newton. I mean Winston has more arm talent than most QBs that have played in the NFL. Newton is a beast. Yet he signs Hoyer. I don't think that means no Hurts, yet it's if he can get him where he values him and if he doesn't like someone else more. I mean those tests also give Nate Stanley a big boost.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 18, 2020 4:49:19 GMT -5
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 3,044
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Post by mobaz on Apr 18, 2020 6:39:28 GMT -5
www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2020-nfl-draft-wonderlic-test-scores-revealed-tua-tagovailoa-ranks-lowest-among-quarterbacks-per-report/amp/Kinda confirms what we already knew Fromm is a very smart guy. I mean in recent memory he's closer to Brady than most QBs. Makes the right throws, stands in the pocket, doesn't make many mistakes, will throw it away over making a so-so throw. I don't think the game has moved away from guys like Fromm. He's certainly not for every team, but he fits our system and at worst looks like a great back-up. Bills MO is certainly more smart guys that are leaders than upside guys. Brady scored a 33, Stidham had a 27. 18 is low. Have any of you taken it? I took it for my first job interview. The guy never explained the rules, just gave it to me and timed me. Long story short I got 20 out of 24. I didn't know to skip the ones you didn't know. It's about how many you get right, the wrong don't matter. You needed a 21 to pass, so he asked me 25, which I knew, so he passed me. These QBs spend a bunch of prep time practicing these tests. They know the rules, so getting below 20 is kinda bad. You need a 21 with no practice to sell insurance. Glad I turned that job down lol. I think Bill is intrigued by a guy like Hurts. He checks a bunch of boxes, but there are also some red flags. For Bill it isn't just talent, if it was he'd bring in Winston or Newton. I mean Winston has more arm talent than most QBs that have played in the NFL. Newton is a beast. Yet he signs Hoyer. I don't think that means no Hurts, yet it's if he can get him where he values him and if he doesn't like someone else more. I mean those tests also give Nate Stanley a big boost. Lamar Jackson had a 13. Imagine how much better he'd be with a 25! (I kid!) It's part of the evaluation but it shouldn't be a deal breaker. What will be harder this year is judging football IQ since you couldn't do the same in-person interviews or workouts. Wonder if Wonderlic is leaned on harder because of it.
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Post by ryan24 on Apr 18, 2020 6:43:11 GMT -5
So, based on what we know, maybe we don't with Bill B, what do the pats do with the first 2 picks? Top 3 positions they should go after? Do they trade down? I can not see them trading up? I do not see them going after Love? Maybe trade down because someone wants to trade up to get Love and he is available at the pats pick. The D line guy from Iowa, and a WR seem to be the most popular picks. Looking at winning now? Or building for the future?
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 18, 2020 8:53:27 GMT -5
I believe Bill’s number 1 trait for a QB outside of ability (which is the obvious) is leadership. Newton and Winston both fail in those categories so they are non-starters. My guess is Hurts would more than pass that.
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Post by texs31 on Apr 18, 2020 13:22:05 GMT -5
NFL announced they will stop the draft clock if teams are close to consummating a deal. That was a big concern in the virtual draft.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 18, 2020 16:04:31 GMT -5
www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2020-nfl-draft-wonderlic-test-scores-revealed-tua-tagovailoa-ranks-lowest-among-quarterbacks-per-report/amp/Kinda confirms what we already knew Fromm is a very smart guy. I mean in recent memory he's closer to Brady than most QBs. Makes the right throws, stands in the pocket, doesn't make many mistakes, will throw it away over making a so-so throw. I don't think the game has moved away from guys like Fromm. He's certainly not for every team, but he fits our system and at worst looks like a great back-up. Bills MO is certainly more smart guys that are leaders than upside guys. Brady scored a 33, Stidham had a 27. 18 is low. Have any of you taken it? I took it for my first job interview. The guy never explained the rules, just gave it to me and timed me. Long story short I got 20 out of 24. I didn't know to skip the ones you didn't know. It's about how many you get right, the wrong don't matter. You needed a 21 to pass, so he asked me 25, which I knew, so he passed me. These QBs spend a bunch of prep time practicing these tests. They know the rules, so getting below 20 is kinda bad. You need a 21 with no practice to sell insurance. Glad I turned that job down lol. I think Bill is intrigued by a guy like Hurts. He checks a bunch of boxes, but there are also some red flags. For Bill it isn't just talent, if it was he'd bring in Winston or Newton. I mean Winston has more arm talent than most QBs that have played in the NFL. Newton is a beast. Yet he signs Hoyer. I don't think that means no Hurts, yet it's if he can get him where he values him and if he doesn't like someone else more. I mean those tests also give Nate Stanley a big boost. Lamar Jackson had a 13. Imagine how much better he'd be with a 25! (I kid!) It's part of the evaluation but it shouldn't be a deal breaker. What will be harder this year is judging football IQ since you couldn't do the same in-person interviews or workouts. Wonder if Wonderlic is leaned on harder because of it. Jackson also hasn't shown he can beat teams with just his arm either. I mean look at the playoff game when he was forced to pass a ton. Compared to them running it at will and then him doing play action. If he's going to be a great QB he needs to win games with his arm like that playoff game. I don't think it's a deal breaker, his issues reading defenses and his accuracy are the bigger issues. He's also seen as a level below Jackson as a passer. He might have the most misleading stats of anyone in College Football last year. You'd have to change the whole system for him. He's also likely to be over drafted because teams love copying what other teams do. He's not Jackson and Bill passed on him twice.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 18, 2020 16:29:49 GMT -5
So, based on what we know, maybe we don't with Bill B, what do the pats do with the first 2 picks? Top 3 positions they should go after? Do they trade down? I can not see them trading up? I do not see them going after Love? Maybe trade down because someone wants to trade up to get Love and he is available at the pats pick. The D line guy from Iowa, and a WR seem to be the most popular picks. Looking at winning now? Or building for the future? You can debate this, all depends on what you think about the players on the team. If you believe in Stidham or not? If you don't QB is #1, yet for me it's not a top need. I think they really like Stidham. So TE is #1 all day long, WR and LB/DL. Depending on Andrews and our 4th pick last year center could be as high as #2. The problem with Bill is he doesn't always draft for need, it's more value based. Look at trading up for Williams in the 2nd round last year. They likely had the best group of cornerbacks in the league! Even this year they don't really need him unless there are injuries. The DL guy from Iowa seems a little lite unless he lost weight for the testing period like Warren years ago. Bill seems to like his 3-4 ends to be around 300 pounds. Warren was listed 277 yet played his career around 300. Mims is a beast, in most drafts he's likely a top 15-20 guy who some teams might take top ten. I think they are 100% trying to win. The key being how does Bill plan to do that? Invest in a bunch of offensive talent to give Stidham weapons? Or build up the D and go early 2000 with D, running game and a game manager type QB. That's why the Patriots drafts are so fun, litterally anything could happen. I wouldn't be shocked if he traded the first for a first next year and a second round pick. Like go crazy, it could happen.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 18, 2020 16:40:22 GMT -5
I believe Bill’s number 1 trait for a QB outside of ability (which is the obvious) is leadership. Newton and Winston both fail in those categories so they are non-starters. My guess is Hurts would more than pass that. I certainly wouldn't slam those two at leadership. I mean they have won a lot of games in College and the Pro's. I think it's much more character concerns and they just aren't Patriot type players. They don't fit the culture. David Price was a leader on the Red Sox yet he's not a guy I would want as one either. For me it's not just do guys have leadership, it's are they the right leaders? I don't see any huge red flags with Hurts. Yet that doesn't mean he's a fit for the Patriots way. Lots of very good leaders aren't because they don't like being basically controlled by Bill and not being able to speak freely.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 18, 2020 18:44:17 GMT -5
I believe Bill’s number 1 trait for a QB outside of ability (which is the obvious) is leadership. Newton and Winston both fail in those categories so they are non-starters. My guess is Hurts would more than pass that. I certainly wouldn't slam those two at leadership. I mean they have won a lot of games in College and the Pro's. I think it's much more character concerns and they just aren't Patriot type players. They don't fit the culture. David Price was a leader on the Red Sox yet he's not a guy I would want as one either. For me it's not just do guys have leadership, it's are they the right leaders? I don't see any huge red flags with Hurts. Yet that doesn't mean he's a fit for the Patriots way. Lots of very good leaders aren't because they don't like being basically controlled by Bill and not being able to speak freely. Character is a big part of leadership. It’s not just on the field, it’s in the locker room and off the field.
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