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Post by grandsalami on Oct 22, 2021 22:51:21 GMT -5
Another dinger
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Oct 22, 2021 23:42:16 GMT -5
He will be good.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Oct 23, 2021 8:54:51 GMT -5
I'm so glad. Looked so bleak most of the year. Also helps his value if he becomes part of an offseason trade
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 23, 2021 9:22:58 GMT -5
This goes to show development is not a linear thing. He struggled this minor league year but should certainly not be thrown by the wayside as a prospect. The future of the sox is bright and I hope this kid is a part of that.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Oct 23, 2021 9:25:47 GMT -5
Hopefully this keeps up and he has a monster year in Worcester. They need someone to play 2nd sooner rather than later since Arroyo is a AAAA player.
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Oct 23, 2021 10:22:56 GMT -5
Hopefully this keeps up and he has a monster year in Worcester. They need someone to play 2nd sooner rather than later since Arroyo is a AAAA player. Arroyo put up 1.4 WAR (in 164 ABs) and a 769 OPS (league average is 731 for second baseman) and is under control for four more years. Of course he has to stay healthy though. I don't think you can move Downs or Arroyo until there's a long term resolution for Bogaerts
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Oct 23, 2021 13:38:09 GMT -5
Hopefully this keeps up and he has a monster year in Worcester. They need someone to play 2nd sooner rather than later since Arroyo is a AAAA player. Arroyo put up 1.4 WAR (in 164 ABs) and a 769 OPS (league average is 731 for second baseman) and is under control for four more years. Of course he has to stay healthy though. I don't think you can move Downs or Arroyo until there's a long term resolution for Bogaerts 164 ABs is not a good enough sample size. Boegarts shouldn't play into Arroyo at all. But he's probably on next years roster since he's cheap and you need those kind of players to be the 26th man.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 23, 2021 14:31:02 GMT -5
Hopefully this keeps up and he has a monster year in Worcester. They need someone to play 2nd sooner rather than later since Arroyo is a AAAA player. Arroyo put up 1.4 WAR (in 164 ABs) and a 769 OPS (league average is 731 for second baseman) and is under control for four more years. Of course he has to stay healthy though. I don't think you can move Downs or Arroyo until there's a long term resolution for Bogaerts But Arroyo had only a .298 xwOBA (.332 wOBA). He's never had an xwOBA above .310. Career OBP of .298. Really like the defense, but I think he was pretty lucky to put up the offensive numbers he did this year. I think calling him a AAAA player is a little harsh, but I think he'd be overexposed as more than a backup infielder.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Oct 23, 2021 14:36:58 GMT -5
Arroyo put up 1.4 WAR (in 164 ABs) and a 769 OPS (league average is 731 for second baseman) and is under control for four more years. Of course he has to stay healthy though. I don't think you can move Downs or Arroyo until there's a long term resolution for Bogaerts But Arroyo had only a .298 xwOBA (.332 wOBA). He's never had an xwOBA above .310. Career OBP of .298. Really like the defense, but I think he was pretty lucky to put up the offensive numbers he did this year. I think calling him a AAAA player is a little harsh, but I think he'd be overexposed as more than a backup infielder. .240 .296 .440 = .736 in 2020, two mini-years in a row of average to slightly above average 2b offense. Too bad his attempt to play 1b became a fiasco (not that you'd want him as more than a backup's backup.) I'd like to sign Iglesias for pennies to be the backup IF.
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Post by carl4sox on Oct 23, 2021 15:43:19 GMT -5
Agree on Iggie. I like Arroyo -- for the time being. Until Jeter's ready.
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Post by grandsalami on Oct 25, 2021 16:59:03 GMT -5
Grand Slam dinger
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Post by patford on Oct 25, 2021 17:23:31 GMT -5
This is getting exciting.
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Post by vokuhila on Oct 26, 2021 3:01:05 GMT -5
Looks like he found his pressure valve to release the frustration accumulated during the season.
Must be nice for him. Instead of going into the offseason with doubts, he can now sit down, relax, have a cold beer and just go "I'll be fine".
AAA without real time in AA was probably too much for him. The AFL is supposed to be between AA and AAA skillwise, looks like that's exactly what he needed.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 26, 2021 5:01:49 GMT -5
Looks like he found his pressure valve to release the frustration accumulated during the season. Must be nice for him. Instead of going into the offseason with doubts, he can now sit down, relax, have a cold beer and just go "I'll be fine". AAA without real time in AA was probably too much for him. The AFL is supposed to be between AA and AAA skillwise, looks like that's exactly what he needed. For sure, we can only hope. Not that his baseball obituary was in rough draft or anything and he wasn't truly ready for AAA. But this past season also highlighted the vast difference between AAA and the show, we have plenty of examples of that on the Sox. This next season will be important for him but he is a long ways from the majors at this point. Imagine the numbers Bobby D might have put up in Worc. this past season if the Sox had filled 1st with a vet instead of him.
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Post by manfred on Oct 26, 2021 9:18:19 GMT -5
Looks like he found his pressure valve to release the frustration accumulated during the season. Must be nice for him. Instead of going into the offseason with doubts, he can now sit down, relax, have a cold beer and just go "I'll be fine". AAA without real time in AA was probably too much for him. The AFL is supposed to be between AA and AAA skillwise, looks like that's exactly what he needed. For sure, we can only hope. Not that his baseball obituary was in rough draft or anything and he wasn't truly ready for AAA. But this past season also highlighted the vast difference between AAA and the show, we have plenty of examples of that on the Sox. This next season will be important for him but he is a long ways from the majors at this point. Imagine the numbers Bobby D might have put up in Worc. this past season if the Sox had filled 1st with a vet instead of him. This feels like it was a big story… something to watch. WooSox numbers might be crazy inflated — at least for a year. That was what had me especially concerned about Downs. A guy like Franchy couldn’t hit his a$$ with two hands in Fenway rakes down there. If his contact is that different, what happens to a guy not making contact there? I suspect Downs will work it out, but I also suspect he will not be long for Boston. Yorke has clearly passed him as the 2b of the future, and I doubt he’ll be productive enough that a conversion to CF will be in order.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 26, 2021 9:37:09 GMT -5
For sure, we can only hope. Not that his baseball obituary was in rough draft or anything and he wasn't truly ready for AAA. But this past season also highlighted the vast difference between AAA and the show, we have plenty of examples of that on the Sox. This next season will be important for him but he is a long ways from the majors at this point. Imagine the numbers Bobby D might have put up in Worc. this past season if the Sox had filled 1st with a vet instead of him. This feels like it was a big story… something to watch. WooSox numbers might be crazy inflated — at least for a year. That was what had me especially concerned about Downs. A guy like Franchy couldn’t hit his a$$ with two hands in Fenway rakes down there. If his contact is that different, what happens to a guy not making contact there? I suspect Downs will work it out, but I also suspect he will not be long for Boston. Yorke has clearly passed him as the 2b of the future, and I doubt he’ll be productive enough that a conversion to CF will be in order. I hope Downs figures it out so the Sox can use him as a solid prospect in a trade just like LA did with us. I am probably a bit too optimistic with Yorke but I am hoping he is the next Sox prospect, like X and Raffy, to just rake his way thru the minors and find himself in Boston quickly. I mean why not with what we have seen so far. Maybe his D holds him back but that bat and his k and walk rates are just elite at this point. As for the Woosox stadium. I didn't look too hard to find info but it seems to me that the opponents didn't have crazy hitting numbers there like the Sox did. I tried to pay attention to that during the season and it certainly didn't show that opponents were as productive. But yeah I mean Franchy and Duran were both studs there and duds in Boston.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Oct 26, 2021 9:41:25 GMT -5
Could just be me but it seems like Worcester’s park benefits left handed hitters more than right handed hitters, I could be off on that though
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Post by taiwansox on Oct 26, 2021 11:09:28 GMT -5
His load looks a little bit like Mookie’s (with less bat speed). It would be interesting to see if this oppo approach in the AFL carries forward like JDM in 2014 (obviously JDM is a 3 standard deviation outcome). That’s multiple oppo homers so far in the AFL, which is more than coincidental, any news on potential mechanical adjustments?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 26, 2021 11:59:41 GMT -5
Could just be me but it seems like Worcester’s park benefits left handed hitters more than right handed hitters, I could be off on that though The "Polar Vortex" blew out to RF, so that's probably likely. When you have a park that plays like that, it an also get in a guy's head. It wouldn't surprise me if Downs was trying to lift the ball into the wind to put it out and getting out of his approach to do so, and that spiraled over the course of the year.
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Post by bosox904 on Oct 26, 2021 15:03:08 GMT -5
I haven't listened to it yet myself, but the MLB Pipeline podcast that came out today has a Jeter Downs interview by Jim Callis.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 27, 2021 15:57:18 GMT -5
I was told long ago by a scout to ignore results for three parts of the baseball season:
Spring training September for non-contending teams Arizona Fall League
That said, the same scout told me "process is more revealing with guys during those periods than outcomes."
To that end, it seems like Downs may be making more hard contact, which is nice.
I still would trade this guy if his perceived value rebounds. There's a reason the Reds and Dodgers both didn't mind packaging him.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 27, 2021 17:42:58 GMT -5
Yeah I'd be far less excited if we were talking singles and doubles, but there's definitely something to be said for taking this with a huge grain of salt.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 27, 2021 17:51:33 GMT -5
I was told long ago by a scout to ignore results for three parts of the baseball season: Spring training September for non-contending teams Arizona Fall League That said, the same scout told me "process is more revealing with guys during those periods than outcomes." To that end, it seems like Downs may be making more hard contact, which is nice. I still would trade this guy if his perceived value rebounds. There's a reason the Reds and Dodgers both didn't mind packaging him. Downs is one of a few high end prospects that could end up being traded based on guys in front and behind them. Those could be some interesting trades depending on needs at the time. It is certainly good for Downs to go in to the offseason with a better experience to end a tough year for him, he won't go months questioning himself.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Oct 28, 2021 7:36:44 GMT -5
I haven't listened to it yet myself, but the MLB Pipeline podcast that came out today has a Jeter Downs interview by Jim Callis. Nice interview. Starts at about 42:00 and goes about ten minutes. Seems like a solid, smart guy, says he's been "blessed." Says he's made mechanical adjustments, refers to "my moves" which I guess is what he does before the swing. Not trying to hit for power, as you've seen in other quotes. Says at times he has had to remind himself to use the whole field; not clear if this refers to getting pull-happy or the "aiming for the RCF slipstream" theory mentioned on this site. Wants to "hit my pitch" rather than cover the whole strike zone before two strikes, then get tougher with two strikes. Happy to be getting time at SS and 2b. Was asked the slightly dumb question "What pitchers have you found hardest to hit?" and managed to avoid saying "dude, none of them; I'm hitting a bomb every day," and after a while thought of a guy who gave him a hard at bat. Here is one of many places you can find the pod: open.spotify.com/show/0fMLXwmJ5lWykcPgYIv2sd
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 28, 2021 7:53:14 GMT -5
Just listened myself. To warn everyone, they're clearly at the field which is getting worked on, so it sort of sounds like they're building a railroad in the background.
Sounds like after the first couple months, when he struggled, they had him focusing on getting his hitting mechanics back in check because he was out of sorts, and that might've contributed to the even worse two months before he got everything figured out.
Quiet kid. I hadn't realized he's known Casas since he was 10, although that makes perfect sense.
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