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Post by julyanmorley on Jun 20, 2022 17:52:04 GMT -5
Fitzgerald has done some damage against high minors pitching for two years now. He can play CF and SS, it's not like he needs to lead all of AAA in OPS to look like he's worth a bench spot in the majors.
That said, it doesn't make sense to DFA anybody so you can upgrade from Downs to Fitzgerald for one start and two bench games.
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Post by redsoxpride34 on Jun 20, 2022 17:53:44 GMT -5
Poor Fitzi gets screwed because of the 40-man. Eh, he’s maybe screwing his chances by his poor play? Ryan Fitzgerald monthly Splits:Month | OPS | April | 1.064 | May | .803 | June | .534 |
I mean, dude’s hit a bunch of homers in Spring TRAINING (like Bobby Dalbec and Sam Travis before him) and got hot for a month in AAA and everybody wants him on the 40 man roster? What am I missing here? Last time I checked he’s a 28 yo with an MiLB career OPS of .777. He's got 12 on the season and yes his numbers have dropped off but I think its more so people are tired of watching the franchy and dalbec take turns look lost and want to give fitzgerald a look to see if he can produce the way he has in spring training and for most of the season.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jun 20, 2022 18:30:43 GMT -5
Nobody is tired of Franchy and nobody will ever be tired of Franchy
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 20, 2022 19:00:27 GMT -5
LOL, Freddy you know this site is heavily populated by Boomers, right? I see him as a billigerent teen acting out. Maybe Freddy is a self absorbed teen also. Lol
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 10, 2022 3:45:40 GMT -5
We once had a prospect that was initially regarded as one of the best in the game. When he got to AA he put up a .699 OPS and fell off BA's top 100.
At age 23 in Pawtucket he hit .244 / .332 / .421. Obviously, that didn't get him reinstated. But the line was misleading. This is a cut and paste from a 1997 spreadsheet! The data was compiled from bi-weekly stat lines that appeared in BA, and excludes HB and SF from PA and OBP.
Period PA BA OBP SA weeks 1-4 80 .129 .238 .171 weeks 5- 14 243 .236 .333 .420 weeks 15-22 215 .295 .367 .513
In those days you could buy half a dozen competing season-preview mags. I had a fave but I'd always buy a second one ... that year I bought the sole other mag whose "Down on the Farm" report knew about the slow start and hot finish. The others all reported he was a bust. Nowadays, no one would make that mistake.
The next year he hit .300 / .410 / .513 in AAA and BA put him back in at #99. In his 7 year-prime he averaged 4.1 WAR per 650 PA. He played the big RF beautifully and won a ring in .04. Now, Jeter has never been as good a prospect as Trot was. But the career parallel is very strong. A .606 OPS in AA at age 22 for Jeter vs.Trot's .699, to begin with. And then it gets kind of eerie.
.198 / .315 / .363, 213 PA -- Nixon in AAA, age 23, start
.189 / .297 / .397, 222 PA (214 excluding HB and SF!) -- Downs in AAA, age 23, start
When you weight OBP double, that's a near-identical performance over a near-identical stretch of time.
And then the comp breaks down, because Trot struggled for another 4 weeks before turning on the afterburners. Jeter:
.383 / .509 / .787, 59 PA since being sent down after his 0/4 debut, including last night.
Apparently, no one has asked anyone the obvious questions: did someone fix his swing while he was in Boston for a day? Did Cora or someone else give him great advice of some sort?
I had to look up where he's ranked now ... 21! That is way too low.
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Post by chrisfromnc on Jul 10, 2022 5:54:49 GMT -5
Eric, if 21 is way too low I’m curious to know what you think a more appropriate ranking should be, or at least a range of three or so. Also, why do you double the weight of the OBP to make the Nixon comp work? Sorry if that is supposed to be intuitive, but I am missing something.
Interesting analysis as always.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jul 10, 2022 7:09:09 GMT -5
We once had a prospect that was initially regarded as one of the best in the game. When he got to AA he put up a .699 OPS and fell off BA's top 100.
At age 23 in Pawtucket he hit .244 / .332 / .421. Obviously, that didn't get him reinstated. But the line was misleading. This is a cut and paste from a 1997 spreadsheet! The data was compiled from bi-weekly stat lines that appeared in BA, and excludes HB and SF from PA and OBP.
Period PA BA OBP SA weeks 1-4 80 .129 .238 .171 weeks 5- 14 243 .236 .333 .420 weeks 15-22 215 .295 .367 .513
In those days you could buy half a dozen competing season-preview mags. I had a fave but I'd always buy a second one ... that year I bought the sole other mag whose "Down on the Farm" report knew about the slow start and hot finish. The others all reported he was a bust. Nowadays, no one would make that mistake.
The next year he hit .300 / .410 / .513 in AAA and BA put him back in at #99. In his 7 year-prime he averaged 4.1 WAR per 650 PA. He played the big RF beautifully and won a ring in .04. Now, Jeter has never been as good a prospect as Trot was. But the career parallel is very strong. A .606 OPS in AA at age 22 for Jeter vs.Trot's .699, to begin with. And then it gets kind of eerie.
.198 / .315 / .363, 213 PA -- Nixon in AAA, age 23, start
.189 / .297 / .397, 222 PA (214 excluding HB and SF!) -- Downs in AAA, age 23, start
When you weight OBP double, that's a near-identical performance over a near-identical stretch of time.
And then the comp breaks down, because Trot struggled for another 4 weeks before turning on the afterburners. Jeter:
.383 / .509 / .787, 59 PA since being sent down after his 0/4 debut, including last night.
Apparently, no one has asked anyone the obvious questions: did someone fix his swing while he was in Boston for a day? Did Cora or someone else give him great advice of some sort?
I had to look up where he's ranked now ... 21! That is way too low. I remember Trot Nixon differently, in part because both he and I hurt our backs at the same time. Nixon was hampered by back injuries 2-3 years, starting about a year after the draft, and was better once he got his back under control. Everybody knew about this. John Sickels does a nice retrospective, saying how he was wary of the back but never thought he was a bust. In his 30s back and other injuries cut Trot’s career short. www.minorleagueball.com/2006/8/6/121136/7888
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 10, 2022 9:50:04 GMT -5
We once had a prospect that was initially regarded as one of the best in the game. When he got to AA he put up a .699 OPS and fell off BA's top 100.
At age 23 in Pawtucket he hit .244 / .332 / .421. Obviously, that didn't get him reinstated. But the line was misleading. This is a cut and paste from a 1997 spreadsheet! The data was compiled from bi-weekly stat lines that appeared in BA, and excludes HB and SF from PA and OBP.
Period PA BA OBP SA weeks 1-4 80 .129 .238 .171 weeks 5- 14 243 .236 .333 .420 weeks 15-22 215 .295 .367 .513
In those days you could buy half a dozen competing season-preview mags. I had a fave but I'd always buy a second one ... that year I bought the sole other mag whose "Down on the Farm" report knew about the slow start and hot finish. The others all reported he was a bust. Nowadays, no one would make that mistake.
The next year he hit .300 / .410 / .513 in AAA and BA put him back in at #99. In his 7 year-prime he averaged 4.1 WAR per 650 PA. He played the big RF beautifully and won a ring in .04. Now, Jeter has never been as good a prospect as Trot was. But the career parallel is very strong. A .606 OPS in AA at age 22 for Jeter vs.Trot's .699, to begin with. And then it gets kind of eerie.
.198 / .315 / .363, 213 PA -- Nixon in AAA, age 23, start
.189 / .297 / .397, 222 PA (214 excluding HB and SF!) -- Downs in AAA, age 23, start
When you weight OBP double, that's a near-identical performance over a near-identical stretch of time.
And then the comp breaks down, because Trot struggled for another 4 weeks before turning on the afterburners. Jeter:
.383 / .509 / .787, 59 PA since being sent down after his 0/4 debut, including last night.
Apparently, no one has asked anyone the obvious questions: did someone fix his swing while he was in Boston for a day? Did Cora or someone else give him great advice of some sort?
I had to look up where he's ranked now ... 21! That is way too low. So your argument that Downs is too low is based on someone maybe fixing his swing in late June? Or that he has similar stats to Trot Nixon in a small sample? This is like the third time Downs had looked like he might be fixed in the past year. You'll have to forgive me for wanting to see more than two weeks before I buy in. For what it's worth, Downs was probably going to be even lower, but Ian made the great point that at his age and with his skills other than the hit tool, he's still potentially got, well, this in him. And keep in mind this most recent hot stretch has happened almost entirely after we'd done most of the work on these rankings - we don't stop the presses on June 30 because a guy has had 5 good games.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 10, 2022 10:47:51 GMT -5
I've been beating this drum for a while (and good to know I'm on the same page with Ian) but Downs's youth is, I think, sorely discounted.
In this context, I would note that Nixon was never as young for a minor league as Downs has been the last TWO years in AAA. Also, Nixon played 148 games in Trenton to prepare himself for AAA, whereas Downs didn't even unpack his suitcase in Tulsa (12 AA games with LAD), while bypassing Portland on his way to Worcester. I'm not saying that he's going to hit like Nixon did in the Show, just saying that Downs's minor league numbers have some pretty important caveats.
I'm encouraged by his recent post-Boston surge (which I idly speculate has something to do with Xander Bogaerts and perhaps also crab legs - h/t @sitting) and agree with @eric that 21 is too low for this young man. I would put him in the 13-15 range, above a bunch of (also flawed) prospects who are a lot farther from the bigs.
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Post by bosoxnation on Jul 10, 2022 19:52:52 GMT -5
I've been beating this drum for a while (and good to know I'm on the same page with Ian) but Downs's youth is, I think, sorely discounted. In this context, I would note that Nixon was never as young for a minor league as Downs has been the last TWO years in AAA. Also, Nixon played 148 games in Trenton to prepare himself for AAA, whereas Downs didn't even unpack his suitcase in Tulsa (12 AA games with LAD), while bypassing Portland on his way to Worcester. I'm not saying that he's going to hit like Nixon did in the Show, just saying that Downs's minor league numbers have some pretty important caveats. I'm encouraged by his recent post-Boston surge (which I idly speculate has something to do with Xander Bogaerts and perhaps also crab legs - h/t @sitting) and agree with @eric that 21 is too low for this young man. I would put him in the 13-15 range, above a bunch of (also flawed) prospects who are a lot farther from the bigs. How come I’m always agreeing with you!? lol
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 11, 2022 16:20:05 GMT -5
We once had a prospect that was initially regarded as one of the best in the game. When he got to AA he put up a .699 OPS and fell off BA's top 100.
At age 23 in Pawtucket he hit .244 / .332 / .421. Obviously, that didn't get him reinstated. But the line was misleading. This is a cut and paste from a 1997 spreadsheet! The data was compiled from bi-weekly stat lines that appeared in BA, and excludes HB and SF from PA and OBP.
Period PA BA OBP SA weeks 1-4 80 .129 .238 .171 weeks 5- 14 243 .236 .333 .420 weeks 15-22 215 .295 .367 .513
In those days you could buy half a dozen competing season-preview mags. I had a fave but I'd always buy a second one ... that year I bought the sole other mag whose "Down on the Farm" report knew about the slow start and hot finish. The others all reported he was a bust. Nowadays, no one would make that mistake.
The next year he hit .300 / .410 / .513 in AAA and BA put him back in at #99. In his 7 year-prime he averaged 4.1 WAR per 650 PA. He played the big RF beautifully and won a ring in .04. Now, Jeter has never been as good a prospect as Trot was. But the career parallel is very strong. A .606 OPS in AA at age 22 for Jeter vs.Trot's .699, to begin with. And then it gets kind of eerie.
.198 / .315 / .363, 213 PA -- Nixon in AAA, age 23, start
.189 / .297 / .397, 222 PA (214 excluding HB and SF!) -- Downs in AAA, age 23, start
When you weight OBP double, that's a near-identical performance over a near-identical stretch of time.
And then the comp breaks down, because Trot struggled for another 4 weeks before turning on the afterburners. Jeter:
.383 / .509 / .787, 59 PA since being sent down after his 0/4 debut, including last night.
Apparently, no one has asked anyone the obvious questions: did someone fix his swing while he was in Boston for a day? Did Cora or someone else give him great advice of some sort?
I had to look up where he's ranked now ... 21! That is way too low. So your argument that Downs is too low is based on someone maybe fixing his swing in late June? Or that he has similar stats to Trot Nixon in a small sample? This is like the third time Downs had looked like he might be fixed in the past year. You'll have to forgive me for wanting to see more than two weeks before I buy in. For what it's worth, Downs was probably going to be even lower, but Ian made the great point that at his age and with his skills other than the hit tool, he's still potentially got, well, this in him. And keep in mind this most recent hot stretch has happened almost entirely after we'd done most of the work on these rankings - we don't stop the presses on June 30 because a guy has had 5 good games. I certainly didn't mean to suggest that you had him ranked too low, any more than Rafaela etc.. were ranked too low before the latest update. (When I do think that, I say so, q.v. Christian Vazquez and Steven Wright in the past). I was well aware that the timing of the update did not include most of the turnaround. It's just that it's clear that he can't possibly be ranked behind Groome when he's long been regarded as the better prospect and is now having a better year in AAA and MLB than Groome is in AA, at the same age. Turns out that, per Speier in today's Globe, he did change his swing when he was sent down, getting rid of his leg lift. The crazy numbers he had down there may in part be to a change in the way he's best pitched to, i.e., the adjustment (which he apparently has made before) may have turned cold zones into hot ones.
The Nixon thing was 70% for amusement and 30% a very simple reminder not to give to too soon on prospect of his caliber. The specific comparison has no predictive value. I can't find a third hot stretch in the last two seasons. .355/ .400 / .581 (last 35 PA at Worcester last year, then .228 / .389 / .491 (72 PA) in the AFL.
The other thing here is that you never look at just the sample size; the size of the effect is equally as important.
.370 / .500 / .753 in 58 PA ... that's a a lot more extreme.
Here's his before and after rates: PA K% BB% HRC BABIP 222 .311 .113 .091 .209 58 .172 .155 .139 .387
A set of splits like has a 1 in 2,894 chance of showing up at random in a simulation (one that first rolled the dice on SO / BB / Contact, then on HR or not, then on Hit or not).
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Post by adamgregory81 on Jul 12, 2022 18:43:32 GMT -5
Although his batting average and K rate are not ideal, he does walk a lot (his OBP is well above the MLB average this year). If you pair an above-average OBP with the 30/30 pace he's on, that's pretty solid for a guy that can (at least passably?) play SS.
Without intending sounds like a Monday morning quarterback here (for the avoidance of doubt, I really appreciate all the work that is put into this site year after year) I did think the drop out of the top 20 was a little reactionary. Especially considering a number of those guys are the same or similar age to Downs, playing at lower levels, and haven't been all that much better.
Put another way, his hitting line is better than Trevor Story.
I do wonder how the view would have changed had he spent enough time at AA to put up numbers that suggested a deserved promotion to Worcester.
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Post by bosoxnation on Sept 8, 2022 0:26:56 GMT -5
Ok i want to let everyone know you heard it here first!!!! Downs is going to have a breakout season next year!
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Post by manfred on Sept 8, 2022 8:53:06 GMT -5
Although his batting average and K rate are not ideal, he does walk a lot (his OBP is well above the MLB average this year). If you pair an above-average OBP with the 30/30 pace he's on, that's pretty solid for a guy that can (at least passably?) play SS. Without intending sounds like a Monday morning quarterback here (for the avoidance of doubt, I really appreciate all the work that is put into this site year after year) I did think the drop out of the top 20 was a little reactionary. Especially considering a number of those guys are the same or similar age to Downs, playing at lower levels, and haven't been all that much better. Put another way, his hitting line is better than Trevor Story. I do wonder how the view would have changed had he spent enough time at AA to put up numbers that suggested a deserved promotion to Worcester. MLB OBP avg: .311 Downs at AAA: .316 Not exactly the Greek God of Walks. His hitting line is not even close to Story, and he’s doing it at a lower level. He is still young, so there is a lot of time. He has played 180 AAA games and been bad thus far. And he looked hopeless in his cup of coffee. Again… a lot of time. But I’m less optimistic about him than, say, Duran, on whom many have quit.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 8, 2022 9:00:47 GMT -5
Although his batting average and K rate are not ideal, he does walk a lot (his OBP is well above the MLB average this year). If you pair an above-average OBP with the 30/30 pace he's on, that's pretty solid for a guy that can (at least passably?) play SS. Without intending sounds like a Monday morning quarterback here (for the avoidance of doubt, I really appreciate all the work that is put into this site year after year) I did think the drop out of the top 20 was a little reactionary. Especially considering a number of those guys are the same or similar age to Downs, playing at lower levels, and haven't been all that much better. Put another way, his hitting line is better than Trevor Story. I do wonder how the view would have changed had he spent enough time at AA to put up numbers that suggested a deserved promotion to Worcester. MLB OBP avg: .311 Downs at AAA: .316 Not exactly the Greek God of Walks. His hitting line is not even close to Story, and he’s doing it at a lower level. He is still young, so there is a lot of time. He has played 180 AAA games and been bad thus far. And he looked hopeless in his cup of coffee. Again… a lot of time. But I’m less optimistic about him than, say, Duran, on whom many have quit. Fair points regarding the bat. However Duran has shown he can't field his position. The reports on downs are that he can be a potential plus defender at 2nd and can handle SS adequately. I'm not bullish on either of them by any means but just my 2 cents on how Downs may have a better path to a major league career than Duran.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Sept 8, 2022 10:35:22 GMT -5
I bet Downs will eventually get established as a utility guy in the league, maybe here maybe elsewhere. He can pick it at SS and has the athleticism to play all over. He can run. He has pop. If he can get to 75-80 wRC+ at the big league level he’ll have a spot on a bench
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 8, 2022 10:52:22 GMT -5
Maybe I'm crazy yet I'd try Downs at CF and Duran at 2B.
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Post by manfred on Sept 8, 2022 11:47:52 GMT -5
I bet Downs will eventually get established as a utility guy in the league, maybe here maybe elsewhere. He can pick it at SS and has the athleticism to play all over. He can run. He has pop. If he can get to 75-80 wRC+ at the big league level he’ll have a spot on a bench That sounds like an awesome return for Mitch Moreland.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Sept 8, 2022 12:09:46 GMT -5
I bet Downs will eventually get established as a utility guy in the league, maybe here maybe elsewhere. He can pick it at SS and has the athleticism to play all over. He can run. He has pop. If he can get to 75-80 wRC+ at the big league level he’ll have a spot on a bench That sounds like an awesome return for Mitch Moreland. Good thing they got 6 years of control on a good major league hitter and a catcher that’s been looking pretty good lately on top of that
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Sept 8, 2022 12:36:27 GMT -5
I bet Downs will eventually get established as a utility guy in the league, maybe here maybe elsewhere. He can pick it at SS and has the athleticism to play all over. He can run. He has pop. If he can get to 75-80 wRC+ at the big league level he’ll have a spot on a bench That sounds like an awesome return for Mitch Moreland. Mr. $420,000,000 was not going to re-sign. Verdugo, Wong, and Downs is still better than a draft pick!
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 8, 2022 12:44:49 GMT -5
That sounds like an awesome return for Mitch Moreland. Mr. $420,000,000 was not going to re-sign. Verdugo, Wong, and Downs is still better than a draft pick! Also for the life of me I don't get why people seem to not want to acknowledge that attaching Price to the deal severely sapped the return they would got back rather than if they had traded just Mookie.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 8, 2022 12:45:12 GMT -5
Holy god. Stop.
We can discuss Jeter Downs without constantly having to go back to the trade.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Sept 8, 2022 14:08:41 GMT -5
Manfred’s law is the longer an internet discussion is allowed to grow (regardless of topic or scope), the probability of circling the conversation back to the Mookie trade approaches 1
Now, if we can find this kid a damned hit tool…
Even if we don’t I do think there can be a valuable guy in there. He’ll just have some unfulfilled potential given the other ability he has
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Post by manfred on Sept 8, 2022 15:05:30 GMT -5
Ok, independent of other things: he does not look good.
And… when the Sox signed Story, I took that to mean they think he is not very good either. It is interesting that in all the X scenarios people have discussed, there has been no push for Story back to SS and Downs to 2b. If they resign X, or if they sign a different SS, Downs is done in Boston. And that seems likely to me.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 8, 2022 15:41:50 GMT -5
Ok, independent of other things: he does not look good. And… when the Sox signed Story, I took that to mean they think he is not very good either. It is interesting that in all the X scenarios people have discussed, there has been no push for Story back to SS and Downs to 2b. If they resign X, or if they sign a different SS, Downs is done in Boston. And that seems likely to me. They'd still need a utility infielder, and if that's what Downs projects to it's Arroyo blocking him, not Story and Xander.
Relatedly, I've wondered if Arroyo might be the guy Bloom moves this offseason in his annual gambit to grab a couple mid-tier prospects via trade...
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