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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 15, 2020 12:01:41 GMT -5
There will be lots of blame to go around. Mistakes have been made in many places. So let's get back to the spread in the US and what it means for MLB, please. I'm wondering when we might see games begin again.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Mar 15, 2020 12:48:03 GMT -5
That isn't just nothing. I think, after reading your posts over the years, you live outside the US at this time. It doesn't take much to realize that the bolded couldn't even be considered in the US. I think redsoxfan was just pointing out that the differences in how much the government can directly influence the outcome, as opposed to here, where that kind of directive, pretty much couldn't be given. It definitely would not be followed. Maybe they should hold a giant protest rally. If people are going to be that stupid to not heed the warnings, they've earned what they get. In Italy, a big part of the rapid spread of the disease was because when they shut down the schools and large businesses, instead of going home, people began going to the beach and assembling in town squares. I'm pretty sure that wasn't what they had in mind. It's not an optional choice in China. It's not a "recommended" measure. While the measure is effective, I don't see how in a Democratic nation how you can physically chain people into their homes and arrest people for breaking isolation even if they're not exposed. Canceling weddings is one thing (assuming you can get your money back), but funeral canceling seems harsh. I agree with your point on Italy and it upsets me to see people continually brushing it off as "no big deal" and are starting to turn this into an R vs D debate. I think the only thing we can do right now is just close businesses and public areas like beaches and not really give people the choice of where to go.
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Post by sittingstill on Mar 15, 2020 12:55:25 GMT -5
There will be lots of blame to go around. Mistakes have been made in many places. So let's get back to the spread in the US and what it means for MLB, please. I'm wondering when we might see games begin again. Passan on ESPN: Yankees minor leaguer tests positive for coronavirusI agree with Chris's tweet today that it looks more and more like June at best for minor league ball.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Mar 15, 2020 16:06:46 GMT -5
philsbosoxfan I was curious as to how you can be 1500 miles from the nearest confirmed case of Covid-19 and looking at a map it seemed like that is really hard to do unless you're in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, Just how remote are you?
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Post by swingingbunt on Mar 15, 2020 17:37:11 GMT -5
Think vertically
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Mar 15, 2020 19:01:43 GMT -5
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Post by swingingbunt on Mar 15, 2020 19:11:25 GMT -5
That or a very impressive tree house
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 15, 2020 19:33:28 GMT -5
philsbosoxfan I was curious as to how you can be 1500 miles from the nearest confirmed case of Covid-19 and looking at a map it seemed like that is really hard to do unless you're in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, Just how remote are you? My bad, I clicked on Google for the distance from Davao to Manila, got the driving distance (1476 miles). It's 600 miles by air. Still not close. It doesn't matter much anymore, there's now a confirmed case about 50 miles from us in the city of Tagum. The patient had visited Manila 10 days ago. The mayor of Davao has imposed a block of all Tagum residents until the Tagum mayor comes up with a containment plan. Still no cases on the small island I live on, Samal.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Mar 15, 2020 19:51:06 GMT -5
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Post by wcsoxfan on Mar 15, 2020 20:04:40 GMT -5
philsbosoxfan I was curious as to how you can be 1500 miles from the nearest confirmed case of Covid-19 and looking at a map it seemed like that is really hard to do unless you're in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, Just how remote are you? My bad, I clicked on Google for the distance from Davao to Manila, got the driving distance (1476 miles). It's 600 miles by air. Still not close. It doesn't matter much anymore, there's now a confirmed case about 50 miles from us in the city of Tagum. The patient had visited Manila 10 days ago. The mayor of Davao has imposed a block of all Tagum residents until the Tagum mayor comes up with a containment plan. Still no cases on the small island I live on, Samal. I also looked up Philippines, so thanks for getting me to learn more about your country - I didn't realize just how many islands there are out there. The total confirmed cases are still only 111 as of the last WHO report, but that's an increase of 73% in cases in a single day. Hope you can keep your islands isolated as it seems to be spreading fast. Good luck. Relating to baseball, I'm curious as to how this is affecting international players - especially minor leaguers who don't have family in the US and can't afford to go home. Who's taking care of them?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 15, 2020 20:15:49 GMT -5
So far, three deaths, all elderly, one Filipino-American, all with recent trips to either China or So. Korea. There was a forth, a Chinese national who died on a cruise ship heading for Manila. This is in Taglish but you can get the drift:
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Post by incandenza on Mar 15, 2020 21:33:30 GMT -5
There will be lots of blame to go around. Mistakes have been made in many places. So let's get back to the spread in the US and what it means for MLB, please. I'm wondering when we might see games begin again. One scenario I've wondered about: suppose there is some seasonality with the virus, as there is for the flu, so that it spreads much more slowly during the warmer months but never goes away entirely. Does baseball pick up then? Or is there an imperative to limit the spread as much as possible in order to prepare ourselves for its inevitable re-emergence in the fall? In general would we be looking at 8-12 months of social distancing? I certainly think 2-3 months is the absolute minimum it would take to get through the peak threat, and that's if things move as quickly as possible - and we probably don't want things to move as quickly as possible because that would mean the virus is spreading pretty much unhindered.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 15, 2020 21:56:49 GMT -5
The mayor of the island I live on has just banned all foreigners who don't have a Samal residence and valid ID, effective immediately. This is considered a resort island with hundreds of hotels, etc. That's going to have an economic impact.
The mayors here are the power. Technically we have a similar govt structure to the USA but legislators and governors have little power. My speculation but I would put the real power chain as President, Mayor of Manila, Mayor of Davao, Mayor of Cebu. Everyone else has a much lower impact. Tax structure pretty much tells the story. The two forms of taxes here are the Bureau of Internal Revenue and sales taxes. Sales taxes are the lions share and they go to the local government not the Federal government.
So, it begins....
ADD: By the way, there are about 1100 inhabitable islands in the Philippines. 7 are considered mainland islands, 1500 if you include rocks. It makes for a fascinating pre-western history and you can pretty easily see the differences in physical appearance as well as the similarities in dialects on the various islands. There are 15 primary dialects with about 100 sub dialects. Tagalog is the national language but Cebuano is the most spoken on a daily basis. Most Filipinos are fluent in at least 3 languages.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Mar 16, 2020 0:06:28 GMT -5
There will be lots of blame to go around. Mistakes have been made in many places. So let's get back to the spread in the US and what it means for MLB, please. I'm wondering when we might see games begin again. One scenario I've wondered about: suppose there is some seasonality with the virus, as there is for the flu, so that it spreads much more slowly during the warmer months but never goes away entirely. Does baseball pick up then? Or is there an imperative to limit the spread as much as possible in order to prepare ourselves for its inevitable re-emergence in the fall? In general would we be looking at 8-12 months of social distancing? I certainly think 2-3 months is the absolute minimum it would take to get through the peak threat, and that's if things move as quickly as possible - and we probably don't want things to move as quickly as possible because that would mean the virus is spreading pretty much unhindered. Based on everything I've read your judgement would be correct. There are some who believe they could create a cure, but that would be a 2021 fix. Best case scenario is that we all isolate so well that it runs its course and is gone with a couple of months, but far more likely it slows and comes back big again toward the end of the year, as you mentioned.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 16, 2020 2:41:31 GMT -5
Massachusetts:
"Baker closes Mass. public schools, prohibits gatherings of 25 people or more, bans on-premise consumption at bars, restaurants"
Per the Boston Globe
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Mar 16, 2020 4:39:08 GMT -5
There will be lots of blame to go around. Mistakes have been made in many places. So let's get back to the spread in the US and what it means for MLB, please. I'm wondering when we might see games begin again. The number of known people with the virus in the U.S. increased by 10 times in the last week, from 300 to 3,000. As of today you cannot get a drink or a restaurant meal in New York City. The top expert we have suggested today that we may have to have a massive nationwide quarantine like what has occurred in Italy with virtually everything shut down. On Sunday, the CDC said no gatherings of more than 50 should be permitted. I went to the Safeway in King City, OR today and there wasn't a single roll of toilet paper and many other shelves were nearly empty. Every prediction I have read or heard in the past several days is that this is going to get a lot worse before it gets any better and we aren't doing anywhere near what we need to do to slow it down. Trump has destroyed most of the competence in the federal government because he can't stand to have anyone around him who is smarter, or knows more, than he, and that is most of the competent people in the government. Consequently, the people he put in charge of things have no idea how to handle this. The few experts are afraid to tell him the truth. The stock market is going to crash again this morning. It is an incredible situation. So, are we going to have baseball this season? I seriously doubt it. I hope we have it next year and haven't lost some players to the disease.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 16, 2020 4:45:37 GMT -5
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Mar 16, 2020 6:47:19 GMT -5
I don't know why Italy wouldn't close down beaches and public areas? They couldn't put a couple police officers in various public gatherings to ensure people wouldn't group? It still sounds somewhat the fault of the government. Though, I continue to argue with people here who seem to not care or understand the need to isolate for awhile and think because they'll be fine that it's ok to spread it. The CDC recommending all public gatherings of more than 50 people for 8 weeks means it's going to be awhile before we get things going again. If the virus spreads in Africa and South America then I think it's wishful thinking that summer time is going to help.
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Post by costpet on Mar 16, 2020 7:39:00 GMT -5
The only way to stop this thing is to come up with a vaccine. They are working hard to get one. In fact trials are starting today. Once they figure it out, everyone will have to get the shot. Then we can play ball again. Not before.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Mar 16, 2020 7:44:52 GMT -5
The only way to stop this thing is to come up with a vaccine. They are working hard to get one. In fact trials are starting today. Once they figure it out, everyone will have to get the shot. Then we can play ball again. Not before. Not familiar with the source, but I've seen this a few times. apnews.com/8089a3d0ec8f9fde971bddd7b3aa2ba1
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Post by awall on Mar 16, 2020 8:44:01 GMT -5
There will be lots of blame to go around. Mistakes have been made in many places. So let's get back to the spread in the US and what it means for MLB, please. I'm wondering when we might see games begin again. 2021 if I had to place a bet.
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Post by jbuttah on Mar 16, 2020 10:30:33 GMT -5
I think the timing of everything will depend on the availability of testing. My favorite line from Apollo 13, "Power is everything. We have to shut everything down now." Of course in this case, it's testing is everything.
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Post by kevfc89 on Mar 16, 2020 12:21:26 GMT -5
wow. If July is now best case, we may be headed towards a cancelled season, no?
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Post by Don Caballero on Mar 16, 2020 12:26:41 GMT -5
Snow baseball! I have waited too long for this, make it happen Manfred you genius.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 16, 2020 12:53:36 GMT -5
A whole lost season sure seems more likely than not at this point. Makes me sad that it deprives us of a peak year of Trout, Mookie, et al., and will keep them from reaching their full potential for career stats, like what happened with Ted Williams (though not to that degree, obviously).
I also wonder what a lost season of revenue would do to the owners' purse strings, and the free agent market. What kind of deal does Betts get if no games are played at all in 2020?
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