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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 28, 2020 9:57:25 GMT -5
1) 2021 will be the final year of this CBA. It's possible that the Red Sox will feel less pressure to reset if the year after is the wild west. Of course, that could also go the other direction.
2) If JDM opts out, that could open up the CBT space to sign Betts.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 28, 2020 10:45:07 GMT -5
1) 2021 will be the final year of this CBA. It's possible that the Red Sox will feel less pressure to reset if the year after is the wild west. Of course, that could also go the other direction. 2) If JDM opts out, that could open up the CBT space to sign Betts. Would there be any logic whatsoever in JDM opting out after a canceled season, when he's a year older, after he chose not to last year?
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bosox
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Post by bosox on Mar 28, 2020 12:22:44 GMT -5
1) 2021 will be the final year of this CBA. It's possible that the Red Sox will feel less pressure to reset if the year after is the wild west. Of course, that could also go the other direction. 2) If JDM opts out, that could open up the CBT space to sign Betts. Would there be any logic whatsoever in JDM opting out after a canceled season, when he's a year older, after he chose not to last year? Also, will the clubs be spending big dollars in FA after a lost season?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 29, 2020 13:26:18 GMT -5
JDM: Probably not, unless there's movement that makes it seem like the NL is going to add the DH in the next CBA. I was just throwing that out there.
FA: Great point, but there's going to be a FA market either way that includes Betts, Realmuto, Semien, Bauer, Springer, and Stroman. They're going to have to sign somewhere. Even in the down markets of the two offseasons before this one, the top-of-the-market guys did eventually get paid.
As for the way the owners acted w/r/t the agreement on the 2020 season (or lack thereof), I'm really beginning to think the draft and IFA stuff was motivated in much larger part by their down-the-line goals of making it easier to eliminate minor league affiliates and instituting an international draft. The amount of money they're saving by cutting down on the draft is just so insignificant (we're talking saving what, $4 or $5 million per team on the draft and just delaying the normal amount that's being spent internationally 6 months?) that the goal can't be that simple. Just because the owners are nickel-and-diming Johnny Seniorsign and Sammy Aballfiller doesn't mean Mookie Betts isn't going to get paid.
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Post by beavertontim on Mar 30, 2020 10:15:45 GMT -5
A few things
If this season is cancelled, many smaller market teams will likely end up posting huge losses for the year. Additionally the country we will either be in or just coming out of perhaps one of the worst recessions in history impacting consumer and business disposable incomes. On top of that, many, especially baseballs core older fan base, may have an ongoing concern about going to events with large crowds in fear of getting sick since this virus will not be gone-gone for at least 18 months.
Some of these losses will be enough to put many teams finances into weak positions. Some teams already not in compliance with loan terms will need to ask for additional debt to cover current obligations. Loan covenant tests will likely be failed requiring teams to take restructure debt. Some of this restructuring will likely come with covenants limiting team payrolls. Banks are getting hammered right now. Expect banks to be eager to restructure, but expect the covenants to be very specific and air tight.
Wouldn't this have a huge impact FA spending and possibly even the 2021 CBA?
I could see a scenario where we see the current CBA extended for one to three years to allow MLB finances to come back into line.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 30, 2020 11:29:03 GMT -5
Well said. The financial implications for all sports have barely been touched on. The economy had been steaming along thanks to endless rounds of low-interest fuel. There was an enormous amount of leveraging and there will be volumes of bad debt. That will put a lot of businesses - including baseball businesses - on the ropes.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 30, 2020 13:59:43 GMT -5
Seems like there's still such a wide range of scenarios even for the 2021 season. It seems like there probably won't be a vaccine available at least for the first part of the season. But hopefully the virus will be at least somewhat under control. (I mean, it sort of has to be; either we will have brought it under control through social distancing, or we will have totally failed to do so, in which case it will have burned through the whole population.)
So in this scenario will things just be back to normal? Will we have baseball games with stadiums full of fans? Or will we have games but a population that is actively avoiding large crowds? Or will there in fact still be restrictions on large gatherings in place? And what will teams anticipate about the long-term effects - does a society that just went through this whole ordeal start to think that maybe they want to avoid crowds a little more than they used to? All of this uncertainty is on top of the massive economic uncertainty.
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Post by seanleary001 on Mar 31, 2020 12:38:32 GMT -5
I gotta say the worst part about the coronavirus from a Sox farm standpoint is Jay Groome losing out on more playing time. I just looked and he threw 6.2 innings after being drafted in 2016, then threw 55.1 in 2017, spent all of 2018 recovering from TJ and most of 2019 throwing 4 innings in August. If they don’t play this year he could be 22 and not have pitched above a ball. Makes me wonder how long it’s gonna be until we see him, if at all.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Mar 31, 2020 17:03:08 GMT -5
I gotta say the worst part about the coronavirus from a Sox farm standpoint is Jay Groome losing out on more playing time. I just looked and he threw 6.2 innings after being drafted in 2016, then threw 55.1 in 2017, spent all of 2018 recovering from TJ and most of 2019 throwing 4 innings in August. If they don’t play this year he could be 22 and not have pitched above a ball. Makes me wonder how long it’s gonna be until we see him, if at all. Half full: Noah Song's military obligation clock ticks by faster with little lost development time compare to peers.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 31, 2020 17:20:50 GMT -5
A few things If this season is cancelled, many smaller market teams will likely end up posting huge losses for the year. Additionally the country we will either be in or just coming out of perhaps one of the worst recessions in history impacting consumer and business disposable incomes. On top of that, many, especially baseballs core older fan base, may have an ongoing concern about going to events with large crowds in fear of getting sick since this virus will not be gone-gone for at least 18 months. Some of these losses will be enough to put many teams finances into weak positions. Some teams already not in compliance with loan terms will need to ask for additional debt to cover current obligations. Loan covenant tests will likely be failed requiring teams to take restructure debt. Some of this restructuring will likely come with covenants limiting team payrolls. Banks are getting hammered right now. Expect banks to be eager to restructure, but expect the covenants to be very specific and air tight. Wouldn't this have a huge impact FA spending and possibly even the 2021 CBA? I could see a scenario where we see the current CBA extended for one to three years to allow MLB finances to come back into line. Yeah who even knows. It's all speculation at this point.
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Post by dirtdog on Mar 31, 2020 20:26:12 GMT -5
Thought I just heard Toronto was shutting down through the end of June. If all travel has to be open that would be July baseball soonest. 81 game season maybe similar to the 1981 season?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 1, 2020 1:20:50 GMT -5
Thought I just heard Toronto was shutting down through the end of June. If all travel has to be open that would be July baseball soonest. 81 game season maybe similar to the 1981 season? That's now a very optimistic best case scenario.
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danr
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Post by danr on Apr 1, 2020 4:06:33 GMT -5
Thought I just heard Toronto was shutting down through the end of June. If all travel has to be open that would be July baseball soonest. 81 game season maybe similar to the 1981 season? Not a chance. This season is gone. The virus hasn't hit its peak and if you buy what the experts are saying the other side of the peak is longer than this side. Then, there is the chance it will start back up as it is doing in China now. We will be lucky to see baseball in 2021. The world will be much different then.
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Post by Smittyw on Apr 1, 2020 16:43:13 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 1, 2020 23:17:00 GMT -5
One dim bright spot. According to Dr. Fauci, "I would bet a lot that people who survive Covid-19 are immune to it." If that's the case, which seems logical, survivors could become caretakers caregivers for those struggling with it.
EDIT: Egregious mistake.
Note: caregivers in this case would be pretty much what we called 'candy stripers' in days gone by. In this case, there wouldn't be much training. In the Philippines and most countries, caregiver is a classification just below nurse. They are quite often used as live in nurses for the elderly. My wife took the course when she first became pregnant, 6 months. They are trained to administer medicine including injections and care for babies and specialties like Down Syndrome and Alzheimer's.
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Post by sarasoxer on Apr 1, 2020 23:19:10 GMT -5
Thought I just heard Toronto was shutting down through the end of June. If all travel has to be open that would be July baseball soonest. 81 game season maybe similar to the 1981 season? Not a chance. This season is gone. The virus hasn't hit its peak and if you buy what the experts are saying the other side of the peak is longer than this side. Then, there is the chance it will start back up as it is doing in China now. We will be lucky to see baseball in 2021. The world will be much different then. Agreed. Let's hope for 2021! We are currently at 5100+ U.S. deaths with a current projection of 100-240,000 fatalities. So at best, we are only 5% of the way there. After the projected mortality peak within 2 weeks, there will obviously be an extended period of slow mortality downturn. Like all SP sports fans, I feel great loss in not being able to watch baseball, or basketball or maybe even football. While it seems popular to disparage conventional medicine, here we are in supplication hoping for remedy..chloroquine, remsdesivir, plasma, vaccine? and championing those on the front line!! While we wait, hope everyone takes precautions and stays healthy!
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 2, 2020 13:45:30 GMT -5
Yeah, as someone who gives blood regularly, part of me almost wants to get covid and recover so that I can donate blood with antibodies.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 2, 2020 14:08:31 GMT -5
Yeah, as someone who gives blood regularly, part of me almost wants to get covid and recover so that I can donate blood with antibodies. LOL, no part of me wants it but if it happens and I survive, I'll be donating my time. An advantage of retirement.
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danr
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Post by danr on Apr 3, 2020 3:12:42 GMT -5
Yeah, as someone who gives blood regularly, part of me almost wants to get covid and recover so that I can donate blood with antibodies. Read some descriptions of what this virus can do and you will not want to be a victim. But what is weird is that many people contract it and hardly know it and others are dead in just a few days. They have no idea why this is happening. I had an outbreak of what I thought were spring allergies last week but it kept on and on. No fever or headaches but big problems with my eyes - which is a symptom of COVID. The Internal Medicine Clinic of Oregon Health and Science University sent me to have a COVID test. The test is not very comfortable as they shove the stick inside your left nose almost to your left eyeball. The test came out negative.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 3, 2020 3:21:43 GMT -5
Yeah, as someone who gives blood regularly, part of me almost wants to get covid and recover so that I can donate blood with antibodies. Read some descriptions of what this virus can do and you will not want to be a victim. But what is weird is that many people contract it and hardly know it and others are dead in just a few days. They have no idea why this is happening. I had an outbreak of what I thought were spring allergies last week but it kept on and on. No fever or headaches but big problems with my eyes - which is a symptom of COVID. The Internal Medicine Clinic of Oregon Health and Science University sent me to have a COVID test. The test is not very comfortable as they shove the stick inside your left nose almost to your left eyeball. The test came out negative. That's good news.
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danr
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Post by danr on Apr 3, 2020 4:55:59 GMT -5
I should have added that OHSU administered the test to its patients on a meandering route through the parking lot of the Hillsboro Hops, a short season affiliate of the Arizona Diamondbacks. It is a very attractive stadium and it made me realize how much I miss baseball this year
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 3, 2020 6:20:32 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 3, 2020 9:07:24 GMT -5
Yeah I should have made clear that this is a thing. Should have also made clear that I do not actually want to get coronavirus. Just that as someone who generally wants to help, sitting at home feels rather unhelpful (although it is).
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Post by sarasoxer on Apr 3, 2020 17:16:52 GMT -5
Yeah, as someone who gives blood regularly, part of me almost wants to get covid and recover so that I can donate blood with antibodies. Read some descriptions of what this virus can do and you will not want to be a victim. But what is weird is that many people contract it and hardly know it and others are dead in just a few days. They have no idea why this is happening. I had an outbreak of what I thought were spring allergies last week but it kept on and on. No fever or headaches but big problems with my eyes - which is a symptom of COVID. The Internal Medicine Clinic of Oregon Health and Science University sent me to have a COVID test. The test is not very comfortable as they shove the stick inside your left nose almost to your left eyeball. The test came out negative. Good for you. Having had surgery on all 8 sinuses, I am well familiar with nasal swabs....a helluva foreign feeling...Following surgery I twice went back to have surgical debris sucked out. A long suction tube was inserted way up both sides. An anesthetic spray was supposedly administered. Couldn't tell by me. You wouldn't do this for entertainment.
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Post by libertine on Apr 3, 2020 22:13:14 GMT -5
Yeah, as someone who gives blood regularly, part of me almost wants to get covid and recover so that I can donate blood with antibodies. Read some descriptions of what this virus can do and you will not want to be a victim. But what is weird is that many people contract it and hardly know it and others are dead in just a few days. They have no idea why this is happening. I had an outbreak of what I thought were spring allergies last week but it kept on and on. No fever or headaches but big problems with my eyes - which is a symptom of COVID. The Internal Medicine Clinic of Oregon Health and Science University sent me to have a COVID test. The test is not very comfortable as they shove the stick inside your left nose almost to your left eyeball. The test came out negative. I suffer from severe seasonal allergies. It kicked in early back east because of the mild Winter. My nose has been running and burning non stop for two weeks straight. Constant dull sinus headache. A few sneezes mixed in. And on top of it a cough (I'm a fairly heavy smoker). No congestion. No fever. No muscle aches. So I'll only get concerned if that stuff shows up (hopefully it won't). If I get it I am guessing with my pre-existing conditions , being in my late 50's and being a smoker I'll be one of the people gone in a matter of days.
Very glad to hear the test came back negative for you.
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