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Coronavirus thread tangent
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 19, 2020 7:58:20 GMT -5
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Post by greatscottcooper on Mar 19, 2020 8:27:58 GMT -5
Correction: FTR it's the screening tests that yield false positives. Confirmation tests that test directly for the virus are 100% accurate. The numbers of cases are likely much higher than is being reported. The denominator can only be the number of people who have been confirmed. The true # could be 10 fold. The problems experienced in Italy is the same problem that could happen here if we didn't take the drastic measures we are now. There just aren't enough hospital beds for everyone, if the virus spread through the states that quickly (and it may be now) we could easily be no different. |
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Mar 19, 2020 9:27:22 GMT -5
how profoundly irresponsible, that behavior. |
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Post by sdiaz1 on Mar 19, 2020 10:40:49 GMT -5
My apologies if this has already been dealt with, but can the Mods please take down any misinformation posted by users concerning the current health crisis? I love this site and do not want to see it used as vehicle to spread dangerous lies.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Mar 19, 2020 12:02:47 GMT -5
My apologies if this has already been dealt with, but can the Mods please take down any misinformation posted by users concerning the current health crisis? I love this site and do not want to see it used as vehicle to spread dangerous lies. Personally, I find it to be a bit of a slippery slope and would rather we not do this if only to encourage source sharing, not shutdown someones opinion entirely, but expose which sources might be displaying misinformation and allow for others to provide corrected information. I get what you're saying though. |
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Post by p23w on Mar 19, 2020 12:38:19 GMT -5
Correction: FTR it's the screening tests that yield false positives. Confirmation tests that test directly for the virus are 100% accurate. The numbers of cases are likely much higher than is being reported. The denominator can only be the number of people who have been confirmed. The true # could be 10 fold. The problems experienced in Italy is the same problem that could happen here if we didn't take the drastic measures we are now. There just aren't enough hospital beds for everyone, if the virus spread through the states that quickly (and it may be now) we could easily be no different. 45% false positives from a test kit issued by WHO should give one pause to question the expertise of this organization. Rating Italy #2 in the world for it's healthcare system only to watch Italy's top medical Doctors deny treatment to infected seniors so they could allocate resources elsewhere is, after all, what you could expect from the "second rated healthcare system" worldwide according to WHO. The problems in Italy were caused by cultural socializing in proximity.... once the healthcare system shut down the schools, etc. Common sense and refusing to yield to panic will "flatten the curve", stateside. Hospital beds can be set up in the shut down school auditoriums a-la hurricane season. The scariest result from the new hard science I have seen is the 6 hour "shelf life" of the virus in airborne form. The good news is the virus does not seem to thrive in higher temps (+70 F), but that needs verification because that too may change. FTR WHO also went on record saying that a covid vaccine would take a year (or more) to develop, test and dispense. And for a layered bureaucracy the likes of WHO this may be true. Only this is not true according to "experts" in the U.S. healthcare field. I'll go on record and state that Italy's experience WILL NOT be duplicated in the U.S. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2020 12:47:24 GMT -5
My apologies if this has already been dealt with, but can the Mods please take down any misinformation posted by users concerning the current health crisis? I love this site and do not want to see it used as vehicle to spread dangerous lies. Personally, I find it to be a bit of a slippery slope and would rather we not do this if only to encourage source sharing, not shutdown someones opinion entirely, but expose which sources might be displaying misinformation and allow for others to provide corrected information. I get what you're saying though. Yeah, I mean who becomes the authority on truth? I don't agree with Jimed's position on vaccines, but I'll never get one for a common flu. Am I right or wrong for that? Who decides? Group think is particularly dangerous in times of crisis, I hope we don't get too carried away with it here. |
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Mar 19, 2020 13:28:38 GMT -5
Personally, I find it to be a bit of a slippery slope and would rather we not do this if only to encourage source sharing, not shutdown someones opinion entirely, but expose which sources might be displaying misinformation and allow for others to provide corrected information. I get what you're saying though. Yeah, I mean who becomes the authority on truth? I don't agree with Jimed's position on vaccines, but I'll never get one for a common flu. Am I right or wrong for that? Who decides? Group think is particularly dangerous in times of crisis, I hope we don't get too carried away with it here. Plus, what else am I going to come on here and argue about? |
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Mar 19, 2020 13:32:18 GMT -5
Correction: FTR it's the screening tests that yield false positives. Confirmation tests that test directly for the virus are 100% accurate. The numbers of cases are likely much higher than is being reported. The denominator can only be the number of people who have been confirmed. The true # could be 10 fold. The problems experienced in Italy is the same problem that could happen here if we didn't take the drastic measures we are now. There just aren't enough hospital beds for everyone, if the virus spread through the states that quickly (and it may be now) we could easily be no different. 45% false positives from a test kit issued by WHO should give one pause to question the expertise of this organization. Rating Italy #2 in the world for it's healthcare system only to watch Italy's top medical Doctors deny treatment to infected seniors so they could allocate resources elsewhere is, after all, what you could expect from the "second rated healthcare system" worldwide according to WHO. The problems in Italy were caused by cultural socializing in proximity.... once the healthcare system shut down the schools, etc. Common sense and refusing to yield to panic will "flatten the curve", stateside. Hospital beds can be set up in the shut down school auditoriums a-la hurricane season. The scariest result from the new hard science I have seen is the 6 hour "shelf life" of the virus in airborne form. The good news is the virus does not seem to thrive in higher temps (+70 F), but that needs verification because that too may change. FTR WHO also went on record saying that a covid vaccine would take a year (or more) to develop, test and dispense. And for a layered bureaucracy the likes of WHO this may be true. Only this is not true according to "experts" in the U.S. healthcare field. I'll go on record and state that Italy's experience WILL NOT be duplicated in the U.S. I have no idea if that's false or not, but this doesn't seem encouraging. www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-51949125My assumption is that it's hot in South Africa? That's not snide, I'm really just assuming. Edit: Hmmm this article is more to the point. www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/south-africas-coronavirus-cases-nearly-double-in-explosive-rate-local-transmissions-diagnosed/ar-BB11n74o |
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Post by incandenza on Mar 19, 2020 13:47:13 GMT -5
45% false positives from a test kit issued by WHO should give one pause to question the expertise of this organization. Rating Italy #2 in the world for it's healthcare system only to watch Italy's top medical Doctors deny treatment to infected seniors so they could allocate resources elsewhere is, after all, what you could expect from the "second rated healthcare system" worldwide according to WHO. The problems in Italy were caused by cultural socializing in proximity.... once the healthcare system shut down the schools, etc. Common sense and refusing to yield to panic will "flatten the curve", stateside. Hospital beds can be set up in the shut down school auditoriums a-la hurricane season. The scariest result from the new hard science I have seen is the 6 hour "shelf life" of the virus in airborne form. The good news is the virus does not seem to thrive in higher temps (+70 F), but that needs verification because that too may change. FTR WHO also went on record saying that a covid vaccine would take a year (or more) to develop, test and dispense. And for a layered bureaucracy the likes of WHO this may be true. Only this is not true according to "experts" in the U.S. healthcare field. I'll go on record and state that Italy's experience WILL NOT be duplicated in the U.S. I have no idea if that's false or not, but this doesn't seem encouraging. www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-51949125My assumption is that it's hot in South Africa? That's not snide, I'm really just assuming. Edit: Hmmm this article is more to the point. www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/south-africas-coronavirus-cases-nearly-double-in-explosive-rate-local-transmissions-diagnosed/ar-BB11n74oIt's been spreading in Brazil, Australia, and other places in the tropics and southern hemisphere (where it's late summer now). There has also been rapid spread in Florida and Louisiana. We can hope that it spreads more slowly in warmer weather, but it sure doesn't seem like it just goes away entirely. |
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 19, 2020 16:38:28 GMT -5
Got an email from a friend in Ecuador. They're locking towns down there. He will be allowed in to the nearest one because he, his wife, and their staff are nearby residents. That will only be three days a week. No one traveling will be able to pass through. They're just about on the equator.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 19, 2020 22:34:14 GMT -5
For the faked conspiracy theorists:  |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 20, 2020 6:29:56 GMT -5
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Mar 20, 2020 16:02:09 GMT -5
Correction: FTR it's the screening tests that yield false positives. Confirmation tests that test directly for the virus are 100% accurate. The numbers of cases are likely much higher than is being reported. The denominator can only be the number of people who have been confirmed. The true # could be 10 fold. The problems experienced in Italy is the same problem that could happen here if we didn't take the drastic measures we are now. There just aren't enough hospital beds for everyone, if the virus spread through the states that quickly (and it may be now) we could easily be no different. 45% false positives from a test kit issued by WHO should give one pause to question the expertise of this organization. Rating Italy #2 in the world for it's healthcare system only to watch Italy's top medical Doctors deny treatment to infected seniors so they could allocate resources elsewhere is, after all, what you could expect from the "second rated healthcare system" worldwide according to WHO. The problems in Italy were caused by cultural socializing in proximity.... once the healthcare system shut down the schools, etc. Common sense and refusing to yield to panic will "flatten the curve", stateside. Hospital beds can be set up in the shut down school auditoriums a-la hurricane season. The scariest result from the new hard science I have seen is the 6 hour "shelf life" of the virus in airborne form. The good news is the virus does not seem to thrive in higher temps (+70 F), but that needs verification because that too may change. FTR WHO also went on record saying that a covid vaccine would take a year (or more) to develop, test and dispense. And for a layered bureaucracy the likes of WHO this may be true. Only this is not true according to "experts" in the U.S. healthcare field. I'll go on record and state that Italy's experience WILL NOT be duplicated in the U.S. Fauci, the leading expert we have, said a year to a year and a half. So... there’s that. I live in Washington and our “beautiful” healthcare system is already making plans to select who gets healthcare, just as Italy had to. The US has far too few ventilators and beds for projected need. What do you think will happen when there are more severe cases than rooms? Choices will be made here, too. So I’ll go on record as saying you are wrong unless something dramatic happens to flatten the curve. Given that under 40% of Republicans believe this is serious (and our neighbor Idaho has done nothing to isolate people... at all), I don’t expect good outcomes. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 20, 2020 19:00:30 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 21, 2020 4:17:11 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 21, 2020 22:44:40 GMT -5
This sobering piece was well written so I will post it:
This is from a ICU nurse in Texas.
Good evening. If you are tagged in this you are family, or very close to my family. I hope that you will take my words to heart and listen.
I have been in healthcare all my life, and now, over 30 years in I am now an ICU nurse practitioner dealing with critical illness and life support issues. Those of you who have come to me for advice in the past know that I am a straight shooter and i have never bullshitted you on matters of health. With that in mind....here we go.
COVID19 is here. In America. NOW. Circulating in communities, both detected and undetected. There is no stopping it. COVID19 is a respiratory illness caused by SARS-CoV2, a new (novel is the scientific word) strain of coronavirus that has emerged in humans since December 2019. It is related to the SARS virus that circulated in 2002-3. We got lucky then. Our luck is not so good this time.
It is not the flu. It doesn't feel like the flu. And it is deadlier than the flu by every measure we have undertaken in affected countries. It will make the rounds and many of us will catch it. Most of us wont have a problem with it however... a significant number of us will get fairly sick and may need hospitalization... of those about half of those hospitalized will likely end up in the ICU and possibly on breathing machines... and of those sickest, there will be deaths. COVID19 at its best is showing a 0.8% mortality rate, which is 3x worse than the flu. That is in countries that have extensive testing and detected both the well AND unwell who are positive for the SARS-CoV2 virus, which causes the COVID19 illness.
There are 350 million folks in america, roughly. People are throwing around this number of "less than one percent". Well let me tell you: Do the math. A very small percentage of a very large number is STILL a large number.
Symptoms of the Flu involve your body feeling like everything hurts, and you got run over by a mack truck and you just feel awful.. in addition to upper respiratory symptoms.
COVID19 is different. You may or may not have a runny nose and fever. A sore throat becomes a major common finding.. then it gets in the lungs. A dry, nonproductive cough is common, followed or accompanied by shortness of breath. The shortness of breath is what is triggering hospital visits, and the folks presenting to the hospitals show low oxygen levels (oxygen saturations) and chest imaging typically shows a bilateral diffuse pneumonia (Double pneumonia for the laypeople).
The only proven effective therapies are supportive- Oxygen, and positive pressure ventilation... either with a cpap/bipap machine or with a mechanical ventilator attached to a breathing tube. There is no cure. Your body has to fight it off and it has to run its course. There is no Tamiflu equivalent that works for this. There are some smart medical folks out there spitballing some ideas, but nothing is proven to work. So like every other viral illness you have gotten, you have to ride it out and hope your body is strong enough.
Babies and children are making out fairly Ok.. even if they test positive they havent been dying of it in China, in Italy... however healthy young adults, even athletic types, in their 30's-50's are coming in very sick and some are dying. From there, the older one is, the higher the hospitalization rates and the mortality rates.
Information out of China shows that it was killing men more than women, but one thing to note is that in China, older men are invariably tobacco smokers. Information out of Italy appears to show the obese are having a worse time with it. In general, blood pressure and diabetes are associated with higher rates of severe illness and death. In particular, people takeing ACE Inhibitors or ARB's for their blood pressure (the drugs ending in "pril" like lisinopril, or "sartan" like valsartan) seem to be having a worse time. This makes sense since both of these classes of medicine affect cells in the lungs, which SARS CoV2 is thought to also affect.
The biggest danger right now, and the reason why I am writing this, and tagging you... is that this will "explode" here like it has in Italy, Iran and how it did in China.
We only have so many hospital beds. We only have so many ICU beds. We only have so many ventilators.. and we only have so many trained staff who can care for the patients. If this blows up massively beyond the ability of the health care system to treat and rescue patients, people who COULD have lived will simply die.
In italy they have an excellent national healthcare system with about 5000 ICU beds, and per capita have more doctors and hospital beds than we do here in the US. Of course, the US is bigger and has more total beds, and ventilators... but again.. less per capita. In italy, in Lombardy (the state/province) and in Milan... they have simply run out of ventilators. Doctors are faced with having too many people who cant breathe anymore, and not enough breathing machines to put them on. They are literally deciding on the spot who might live and who will die. They aren't doing CPR or anything else futile for the COVID patients. They dont have the staff or capacity to do so.
There's a lot more horrible stuff I could tell you about whats happening, but the short version is this - if we exceed the capacity to manage this, people who should have lived will die.
Which brings us to here, now, in the US. COVID is here. It WILL sweep the nation. There was never anything we could have done to stop it because of the way we live and conduct business. BUT what we have to do is SLOW IT DOWN.
IF we SLOW IT DOWN, so that the number of unwell and critically ill dont explode, and overwhelm the system, then everyone has a fighting chance. Give time for flu season to end and get flu patients out of the hospital. Give time for the first wave of Covid patients to get well enough to get out of the hospital.
So.. to SLOW IT DOWN... practice frequent handwashing. Dont touch your face, nose or eyes without washing your hands first. Frequently disinfect common surfaces.
PRACTICE SOCIAL DISTANCING. COVID LOVES A CROWD. If you are gonna spread this disease around lets spread it to only one or two people not 100 people at a time. Stay away from large groups. Lets lay off the rodeos, the ball games, the big parties, the night clubs. Do small groups.. or stay home. If you go out, and touch common surfaces, clean your hands before touching your face. On a bus in china, one person gave it to 8 other people, including one who got on 30 mins after the index case left the bus.
If you are sick, stay home. Dont visit other vulnerable folks. If it gets in your household, accept that its there and try not to give it to your aunts, uncles and grandparents. Stay home, dont go to school.
For the elders reading this. I need you to stay home as if your life depends on it. Because it very well does. Your age group is the one having the worst time with this. And if it gets bad, all I can say is that in Italy this week, if you were crashing and over 60, they didn't even consider offering a vent to them. So please, elders, Stay home, skip church, avoid visiting large numbers of people. Skip the lodge meeting. Skip the casino. And if you are adamant that your wings will not be clipped, then please make sure your will is updated, and you've given a copy to your kids.
Now.. none of this says "panic" or "buy bottled water and toilet paper". I'm asking for everyone to take a deep breath and be smart.
Quit caring about your 401k. In a year or two it will be back. The airlines and cruise lines will get bailed out. The economy is going to tank no matter what, so quit worrying about it. Right now the decision is do we want a tanked economy with a low body count or a high body count.
We are all in this together. Wash your hands. Cover your mouth. Practice social distancing. Stay away from large crowds. Be smart. Stay home if sick. Dont hoard or steal medical supplies. We need them desperately at the hospital.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 22, 2020 1:35:57 GMT -5
There is no pandemic. Corona virus has a lower death rate than any flu. There are more people who have recovered from it than now have it. The media, government and big pharma has gone insane in their crying wolf. If you are between the ages of 10 and 50 and are not immunocompromised , you have a 0.2% chance of dying if you get it and that number is probably high. Also, please don't get the vaccine, which is one of the new ones that permanently alter your DNA and is not going to be tested nearly enough before it's released. Once people get bored with the nonstop coverage, the news will let it go and it'll just be the normal viral cold that it is. Usually we agree on baseball, but I’ll tell you that from a viral immunology/epidemiology standpoint, basically every single thing you’ve said here is wrong. Except the low risk under 50, although 40-49 is more like 0.5% and mortality across the range will go up as case volume exceeds ICU capacity (about 800k-1M cases nationally). Right now 20% require hospitalization and 5-6% critical care. Once the beds are full, all critical cases will die, because they require blood pressure support and especially, high levels of supplemental oxygen. Best-case case fatality from South Korea (broad testing) is about 0.8%, and that’s with an intact healthcare system. This is more akin to the 1918 flu, which had mortality rates around 2-4% (as high as 10% in India), and a global attack rate around 30-35%. Humanity has no immunity. There is no vaccine; the only one currently in testing is from Moderna in Cambridge MA and uses non-replicative viral RNA. It most certainly does not alter your genetics in any way. That’s silly. In any case, that’s 14 months away best-case. Active cases are doubling every 2.5 days in the US, portending 120,000 by April 1 and >25 million by April 21. Non of my friends still working in clinical medicine have any clean protective gear. Some have to reuse the same mask all day, others have to bring it home and disinfect it themselves. The whole situation was and is being, badly botched. US led the world yesterday in new cases. Yay, we’re #1. |
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Post by telson13 on Mar 22, 2020 1:43:47 GMT -5
Sooo, question. If Ebola and SARS were far more deadly and if the Swine Flu killed 12,000 Americans, why was there so much less media and panic ? Ebola has never gotten out in the US. There have been under a dozen cases, all contained. I can guarantee a mass panic if it got out the way COVID-19 has. Similarly, SARS only infected 8,000 people worldwide. This is already far more widespread. Also, Ebola requires direct contact for spread. It has minimal pandemic potential. This virus is on pace for 2 billion cases worldwide by the end of May, with between 20 and 100 million deaths. Swine flu was aggressively thwarted in 2009...I know because I did 3 ICU months that winter. Oseltamivir, immediate low-threshold testing, reporting to public health, negative pressure rooms. Flu usually kills about 50K annually, most from secondary bacterial pneumonia in very young or old. I’ve done both clinical medicine and years of virus research, and this scared the shit out of me back around New Years when there were first reports of a “new viral pneumonia” in China. It is exactly what I feared with a slightly lower case fatality rate that is still quite high. People shouldn’t be panicking but they sure as hell should get that this is heart-attack serious. |
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Post by telson13 on Mar 22, 2020 1:46:11 GMT -5
Correction: FTR it's the screening tests that yield false positives. Confirmation tests that test directly for the virus are 100% accurate. The numbers of cases are likely much higher than is being reported. The denominator can only be the number of people who have been confirmed. The true # could be 10 fold. The problems experienced in Italy is the same problem that could happen here if we didn't take the drastic measures we are now. There just aren't enough hospital beds for everyone, if the virus spread through the states that quickly (and it may be now) we could easily be no different. See South Korea and the Diamond Princess where there was wholesale testing on a massive scale. Yeah, there are def more cases than reported, which means true case-fatality is lower than current, but it’s more widespread. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 22, 2020 2:47:15 GMT -5
And then there's the unknown. We have three cases in Davao where the patients died apparently from other causes yet, they are in the process of running labs to see if there is a contributing factor. Until it's ruled out, the three are listed as deaths under Covid19. All three recently traveled to infected areas.
The Philippines now has 307 cases, 20 deaths.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 23, 2020 21:18:22 GMT -5
The Philippines is now up to 462 cases with 33 deaths. That number expected to rise because of the 100,000 test kits from China. 6 cases in Davao, the closest city to me and none on the island I am on, Samal, population about 100,000. The island has closed all sports arenas, resorts and beaches. They have also evicted all non-resident foreigners. Masks are required in all markets and larger stores as well as the town centers. All stores have a 2 meter spacing, most have hand sanitizer and shoe bath as you enter and some have gun thermometers as you enter. LOL, to whatever idiot said to tell my family not to wear masks. There's a Covid candidate, I feel sorry for his family. ncovtracker.doh.gov.ph/ |
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 24, 2020 6:27:52 GMT -5
There is no pandemic. Corona virus has a lower death rate than any flu. There are more people who have recovered from it than now have it. The media, government and big pharma has gone insane in their crying wolf. If you are between the ages of 10 and 50 and are not immunocompromised , you have a 0.2% chance of dying if you get it and that number is probably high. Also, please don't get the vaccine, which is one of the new ones that permanently alter your DNA and is not going to be tested nearly enough before it's released. Once people get bored with the nonstop coverage, the news will let it go and it'll just be the normal viral cold that it is. Just opened up this thread and this is the first post. We can call this Exhibit A of just how wrong and misguided people can be, that's the nice way of putting it. I know we aren't supposed to get political on here but I have a pretty good idea where this thought originated. My daughter is a critical care nurse and she calls me crying every day with worry about how badly prepared they are for this. Not enough ventilaters, not enough masks, spreading the virus in the hospital because of a lack of supplies. If I get going I might just get kicked off this site. All I know is that proper leadership and fore thought from the beginning would have helped a lot more than the lies. You mean to tell me that the Great America couldn't produce these things in less than a month. Yup we are making America great again for sure. And now all they can say is stop pointing fingers. I for one will not stop pointing fingers, the man has literally cost many many lives and they still support him as he said they would. November is coming and I don't plan on being quiet. |
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Mar 24, 2020 8:14:49 GMT -5
Nobody has heard from Jimed since he called out coronavirus...
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 24, 2020 8:41:25 GMT -5
He hasn't been banned if that's what you're getting at.
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