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9/3-9/6 Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Series Thread
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,261
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Post by radiohix on Sept 4, 2020 18:41:03 GMT -5
The only thing that's keeping me sane right now is picturing Jud Fabian roaming Fenway's CF as a late season callup for the playoffs push by the 2022 Red Sox. Hope is such a beautiful thing.
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Post by chrisfromnc on Sept 4, 2020 18:59:14 GMT -5
Lin busting out the whoppin stick with a ground rule double. He crushed it.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 4, 2020 19:33:10 GMT -5
Chavis is on fire lol
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Sept 4, 2020 20:00:37 GMT -5
Nats and Pirates are up.
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Post by manfred on Sept 4, 2020 20:14:03 GMT -5
JBJ is having his best season for OPS+ since 2016. CVaz is over his career average.
It is key to recognize that while there are some guys who are performing terribly, a number of guys are likely what we can expect. The offense scores at a tick under league average, and I’m not sure even better Devers and better JDM (assuming he remains in there) turn this into a powerhouse.
That is obviously independent of the bigger disaster on the pitching side. But since that is not going away next year, they don’t look like a team that score enough to overcome AAAA starters.
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Post by kevfc89 on Sept 4, 2020 20:20:43 GMT -5
JBJ is having his best season for OPS+ since 2016. CVaz is over his career average. It is key to recognize that while there are some guys who are performing terribly, a number of guys are likely what we can expect. The offense scores at a tick under league average, and I’m not sure even better Devers and better JDM (assuming he remains in there) turn this into a powerhouse. That is obviously independent of the bigger disaster on the pitching side. But since that is not going away next year, they don’t look like a team that score enough to overcome AAAA starters. Benny is out and was worse than last year, and besides JD and Devers, even Xander is a little bit below last year's performance. Regardless, I could see Bloom adding another bat to the lineup in free agency or trade.
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Post by manfred on Sept 4, 2020 21:03:55 GMT -5
JBJ is having his best season for OPS+ since 2016. CVaz is over his career average. It is key to recognize that while there are some guys who are performing terribly, a number of guys are likely what we can expect. The offense scores at a tick under league average, and I’m not sure even better Devers and better JDM (assuming he remains in there) turn this into a powerhouse. That is obviously independent of the bigger disaster on the pitching side. But since that is not going away next year, they don’t look like a team that score enough to overcome AAAA starters. Benny is out and was worse than last year, and besides JD and Devers, even Xander is a little bit below last year's performance. Regardless, I could see Bloom adding another bat to the lineup in free agency or trade. Xander is in his normal range for the last few years. I’m not saying there is no room up for the team as it is. Benny especially. But Bloom pretty much has to do something pretty big. I guess that is ultimately the point. They need at least one more near-all star level player. If they don’t resign JBJ, that could be the spot. If they do, they are still going with an outfield of Verdugo (whom we cannot ask more of), JBJ, who we hope the same from, and Benny, who was not great last year and epically awful this year. Huge potential for being bad. I am enthusiastic about Duran, but he is not the reinforcement that turns that around if Benny or JBJ don’t perform. Add: I worry about JDM. There will come time when he will decline. This may be an aberration, but if he is not back to 100%, ugh.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 4, 2020 21:08:06 GMT -5
Mazza: probably not the one in the new bunch that you expected to have success. 27th round draft choice.
Red Sox Nation likely doesn't realize he's 30. All 5 starters are age 29 to 31. This is not their youth movement.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 4, 2020 21:20:11 GMT -5
As a manager, you want to put your players in a position to succeed. Was it constructive to have Leyer throw a 38-pitch inning? With Biggio LHB leading off the 6th, Taylor could have faced one more batter. Maybe shorten the inning for Leyer.
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Post by kevfc89 on Sept 4, 2020 21:24:54 GMT -5
pretty boring game, and not a very satisfying win. and a bad one for the draft hopes as Pirates won their second game and Nats winning theirs.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Sept 4, 2020 21:26:12 GMT -5
Terrible win.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 4, 2020 22:14:23 GMT -5
I'd still keep Valdez around despite his rough last outing Maybe. He fits in my 1-2. Brasier is similar. Not saying that whole group is equally bad... but they are all guys who ought not be pitching in big situations. A few will/should fill out the roster for salary reasons. But man... this is pathetic. Add: if Godley is grousing about RR taking him out, he can keep walking up the ramp, through the clubhouse, and into the parking lot. Guy is gifted a major league start despite, well, sucking. (I was interrupted writing this ...)
Godley's game, with EV. Balls that weren't hard hit in bold.
89.1, 97.2, 111.3 (barrel), K. K, K, 104.4 (barrel), BB, 102.9 (barrel), 96.7. 98.8, 106.4, 104.7, K.
There's no way he was pissed because he couldn't believe he was being taken out, as Remy guessed. Few human beings have ever been hit harder. The current roster's Barrel% is 8.5%. The odds of one of our collection of mostly castoffs (selected at random) giving up three straight barrels are 1 in 1,619. But he did reduce his average EV to 101.7 after that.
He was pissed, though. And he was pitching on 4 days rest, and I earlier pointed out that he's been killed whenever he's pitched with less than 5 and been either great or half-great (last time out) when he had extra rest.
Looking at b-Ref, there was no pattern for Godley by days rest until last year. That's when this year's pattern emerged strongly: he was annihilated on 3 or 4, merely subpar on 5, and very good as a reliever on 1 or 2. The OPS allowed splits over the last 2 years would be immense.
Last year, as a reliever he pitched three times on 1 days rest after 5 or more days rest previously, and fanned 7 in 4 IP giving up just a solo HR. He pitched twice with 1 days rest when he had pitched 2 or 3 days before that as well, and had a 5.2 5 3 3 2 2 line.
There's something going on here with his arm and the frequency with which he can throw. On 5 days rest he can throw a single side session at the midpoint, and it seems as if that allows him to keep his mechanics and not tire the arm. On four days rest, he has a choice between skipping a side, which would likely screw up his mechanics, or throwing one when either the side or the outing itself is on one day. And that's apparently not enough time to recover.
So if I had to guess, he had asked Roenicke to use him differently and been turned down. Roenicke said something to him ... his reaction was consistent with a guy who had requested different treatment, been turned down, and had failed as he feared. That's really aggravating, if you think you know how you know how you can help the team and the manager won't go along. And I find it dubious that some of this is unknown to the team.
After I finish with Pivetta, I hope to look at the Statcast data on all of this, doing some significance tests for the splits, and see if I can come up with some other insights. But right now it looks to me like they should be simply using him every three days, alternating four- and one-inning outings.
I have to mention that I think Roenicke's handling of this staff is disappointing. Your staff is thin enough on innings available that guys will need to be left in to take a pounding just to prevent overwork. But he seems to do this from the outset, and with the game still on the line, rather than waiting until the game is gone. And once it is gone, he doesn't seem to be more prone to the slow hook, which is the way you want to do it. (And I wrote that before he waited until Leyer almost loss the game before even getting Barnes to warm up.)
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Post by manfred on Sept 4, 2020 22:23:16 GMT -5
Maybe. He fits in my 1-2. Brasier is similar. Not saying that whole group is equally bad... but they are all guys who ought not be pitching in big situations. A few will/should fill out the roster for salary reasons. But man... this is pathetic. Add: if Godley is grousing about RR taking him out, he can keep walking up the ramp, through the clubhouse, and into the parking lot. Guy is gifted a major league start despite, well, sucking. (I was interrupted writing this ...)
Godley's game, with EV. Balls that weren't hard hit in bold.
89.1, 97.2, 111.3 (barrel), K. K, K, 104.4 (barrel), BB, 102.9 (barrel), 96.7. 98.8, 106.4, 104.7, K.
There's no way he was pissed because he couldn't believe he was being taken out, as Remy guessed. Few human beings have ever been hit harder. The current roster's Barrel% is 8.5%. The odds of one of our collection of mostly castoffs (selected at random) giving up three straight barrels are 1 in 1,619. But he did reduce his average EV to 101.7 after that.
He was pissed, though. And he was pitching on 4 days rest, and I earlier pointed out that he's been killed whenever he's pitched with less than 5 and been either great or half-great (last time out) when he had extra rest.
Looking at b-Ref, there was no pattern for Godley by days rest until last year. That's when this year's pattern emerged strongly: he was annihilated on 3 or 4, merely subpar on 5, and very good as a reliever on 1 or 2. The OPS allowed splits over the last 2 years would be immense.
Last year, as a reliever he pitched three times on 1 days rest after 5 or more days rest previously, and fanned 7 in 4 IP giving up just a solo HR. He pitched twice with 1 days rest when he had pitched 2 or 3 days before that as well, and had a 5.2 5 3 3 2 2 line.
There's something going on here with his arm and the frequency with which he can throw. On 5 days rest he can throw a single side session at the midpoint, and it seems as if that allows him to keep his mechanics and not tire the arm. On four days rest, he has a choice between skipping a side, which would likely screw up his mechanics, or throwing one when either the side or the outing itself is on one day. And that's apparently not enough time to recover.
So if I had to guess, he had asked Roenicke to use him differently and been turned down. Roenicke said something to him ... his reaction was consistent with a guy who had requested different treatment, been turned down, and had failed as he feared. That's really aggravating, if you think you know how you know how you can help the team and the manager won't go along. And I find it dubious that some of this is unknown to the team.
After I finish with Pivetta, I hope to look at the Statcast data on all of this, doing some significance tests for the splits, and see if I can come up with some other insights. But right now it looks to me like they should be simply using him every three days, alternating four- and one-inning outings.
I have to mention that I think Roenicke's handling of this staff is disappointing. Your staff is thin enough on innings available that guys will need to be left in to take a pounding just to prevent overwork. But he seems to do this from the outset, and with the game still on the line, rather than waiting until the game is gone. And once it is gone, he doesn't seem to be more prone to the slow hook, which is the way you want to do it. (And I wrote that before he waited until Leyer almost loss the game before even getting Barnes to warm up.)
Is the difference starting and relieving? Not the rest? For example: how did he do on 3-5 days rest the first time through? Here is the thing: a guy who can’t succeed on 3-5 days rest can’t start. And if he can’t start, his value is... not a ton. Obviously the meaning of his reaction is speculation, but if he went to RR and said he has trouble with 4 days rest, I think RR had every right to tell him tough. Or... head to the bullpen. But... I agree that RR has been generally poor with the staff. But I don’t think he should let them dictate terms.... especially guys who are lucky to suit up as it is.
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Post by bluechip on Sept 4, 2020 22:39:54 GMT -5
So Munoz is the savior? Is that what I should take away from today’s double header?
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 4, 2020 23:12:13 GMT -5
So, with Moreland in San Diego, who is now leading the team in HardHit%?
Hint: SSS.
That's right, Yairo Munoz. He's quickly put himself into the mix for 2020 backup MI along withe Peraza and Lin.
Unfortunately, although SSS does stand for Small Sample Size, what I meant with that hint was Sucky Shortstop. A guy with his swing who was a solid infield defender wouldn't have been released.
Scouting reports from BA 2016 to 2018 Handbooks: plus-plus arm, good range and hands, plagued by inconsistency and lack of concentration.
He's been playing 2B and 3B for four years and the OF for three. His numbers in MLB, in small samples, are not pretty, except at 3B where he'd be least needed.
He's had 377 innings at SS. Statcast has him at -21 R/150, DRS at -14, and UZR at -12.
He's had 220 innings at 2B. Statcast -12, DRS -36, UZR -19.
3B, 200 innings, Statcast 0, DRS +10, UZR -4.
OF, 210 innings, Statcast -19, DRS -28, UZR -34.
When you project small, bad defensive samples like these, the rule of thumb is to cut them in half. So it's possible he's borderline acceptable at SS and 2B, and since he has the tools and is still just 25, actual improvement is possible.
But if he's actually made some non-illusory progress with the bat (which I have no idea or opinion about), a better bet for his future might be an an adequate, second-division 3B rather than a viable utility guy. Can we use another 3B in the org?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 4, 2020 23:22:47 GMT -5
So, with Moreland in San Diego, who is now leading the team in HardHit%? Hint: SSS.
That's right, Yairo Munoz. He's quickly put himself into the mix for 2020 backup MI along withe Peraza and Lin. Unfortunately, although SSS does stand for Small Sample Size, what I meant with that hint was Sucky Shortstop. A guy with his swing who was a solid infield defender wouldn't have been released. Scouting reports from BA 2016 to 2018 Handbooks: plus-plus arm, good range and hands, plagued by inconsistency and lack of concentration. He's been playing 2B and 3B for four years and the OF for three. His numbers in MLB, in small samples, are not pretty, except at 3B where he'd be least needed. He's had 377 innings at SS. Statcast has him at -21 R/150, DRS at -14, and UZR at -12.
He's had 220 innings at 2B. Statcast -12, DRS -36, UZR -19. 3B, 200 innings, Statcast 0, DRS +10, UZR -4. OF, 210 innings, Statcast -19, DRS -28, UZR -34. When you project small, bad defensive samples like these, the rule of thumb is to cut them in half. So it's possible he's borderline acceptable at SS and 2B, and since he has the tools and is still just 25, actual improvement is possible.
But if he's actually made some non-illusory progress with the bat (which I have no idea or opinion about), a better bet for his future might be an an adequate, second-division 3B rather than a viable utility guy. Can we use another 3B in the org?
Ask his mom: nesn.com/2020/09/red-sox-notes-yairo-munoz-excited-to-continue-progress-in-boston/?fbclid=IwAR3lqMjJaE--0l-rDdxWk0oTbU0r3isRTew7OOux2up0e5FbrnuI78LywpI
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 4, 2020 23:26:27 GMT -5
Munoz is interesting to follow because he was a definite hacker at alt camp. In his last game, the announcers were even speculating that he wouldn't hack as much if he got called up to the bigs.
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Post by foreverred9 on Sept 5, 2020 0:11:44 GMT -5
We were supposed to split with the city of Toronto last night...
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 5, 2020 4:48:02 GMT -5
We were supposed to split with the city of Toronto last night... Actually, both teams lost their home game.
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Post by sarasoxer on Sept 5, 2020 6:14:53 GMT -5
So Munoz is the savior? Is that what I should take away from today’s double header? Interesting that Munoz is another guy (Casas, Verdugo) that chokes up on the bat....love to see this rekindle in an age of omnipresent 'go for the downs'.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 5, 2020 7:01:51 GMT -5
(I was interrupted writing this ...)
Godley's game, with EV. Balls that weren't hard hit in bold.
89.1, 97.2, 111.3 (barrel), K. K, K, 104.4 (barrel), BB, 102.9 (barrel), 96.7. 98.8, 106.4, 104.7, K.
There's no way he was pissed because he couldn't believe he was being taken out, as Remy guessed. Few human beings have ever been hit harder. The current roster's Barrel% is 8.5%. The odds of one of our collection of mostly castoffs (selected at random) giving up three straight barrels are 1 in 1,619. But he did reduce his average EV to 101.7 after that.
He was pissed, though. And he was pitching on 4 days rest, and I earlier pointed out that he's been killed whenever he's pitched with less than 5 and been either great or half-great (last time out) when he had extra rest.
Looking at b-Ref, there was no pattern for Godley by days rest until last year. That's when this year's pattern emerged strongly: he was annihilated on 3 or 4, merely subpar on 5, and very good as a reliever on 1 or 2. The OPS allowed splits over the last 2 years would be immense.
Last year, as a reliever he pitched three times on 1 days rest after 5 or more days rest previously, and fanned 7 in 4 IP giving up just a solo HR. He pitched twice with 1 days rest when he had pitched 2 or 3 days before that as well, and had a 5.2 5 3 3 2 2 line.
There's something going on here with his arm and the frequency with which he can throw. On 5 days rest he can throw a single side session at the midpoint, and it seems as if that allows him to keep his mechanics and not tire the arm. On four days rest, he has a choice between skipping a side, which would likely screw up his mechanics, or throwing one when either the side or the outing itself is on one day. And that's apparently not enough time to recover.
So if I had to guess, he had asked Roenicke to use him differently and been turned down. Roenicke said something to him ... his reaction was consistent with a guy who had requested different treatment, been turned down, and had failed as he feared. That's really aggravating, if you think you know how you know how you can help the team and the manager won't go along. And I find it dubious that some of this is unknown to the team.
After I finish with Pivetta, I hope to look at the Statcast data on all of this, doing some significance tests for the splits, and see if I can come up with some other insights. But right now it looks to me like they should be simply using him every three days, alternating four- and one-inning outings.
I have to mention that I think Roenicke's handling of this staff is disappointing. Your staff is thin enough on innings available that guys will need to be left in to take a pounding just to prevent overwork. But he seems to do this from the outset, and with the game still on the line, rather than waiting until the game is gone. And once it is gone, he doesn't seem to be more prone to the slow hook, which is the way you want to do it. (And I wrote that before he waited until Leyer almost loss the game before even getting Barnes to warm up.)
Is the difference starting and relieving? Not the rest? For example: how did he do on 3-5 days rest the first time through? Here is the thing: a guy who can’t succeed on 3-5 days rest can’t start. And if he can’t start, his value is... not a ton. Obviously the meaning of his reaction is speculation, but if he went to RR and said he has trouble with 4 days rest, I think RR had every right to tell him tough. Or... head to the bullpen. But... I agree that RR has been generally poor with the staff. But I don’t think he should let them dictate terms.... especially guys who are lucky to suit up as it is. Last time I checked 5 was not less than 5. And 5 days is extra rest.
If he pitched an average of 2 innings every three days he'd pitch 122 innings. If he pitched as well as he has this year on 5 days rest (the theory being that in those cases he throws a side midway), he's be worth a ton. Or if you go to a 6 man rotation to protect Sale, he might end up starting and be even more valuable.
Oh, you think that if an employee tells his boss that he doesn't believe he can help the company doing X but could be very useful doing Y, and can explain why, and if they asked the big boss he'd agree ... the boss should just tell him "tough"? Saying "I think you're setting me up to fail here, while I could excel if you gave me an extra day of rest" is not exactly dictating terms.
Meanwhile, the best game of Brewer's life was on 2 days rest. Subsequently, as a starter on 4 days he's been hammered twice. He could have gone on 3 days yesterday to give Godley 5.
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Post by jbsox on Sept 5, 2020 8:06:16 GMT -5
Is the difference starting and relieving? Not the rest? For example: how did he do on 3-5 days rest the first time through? Here is the thing: a guy who can’t succeed on 3-5 days rest can’t start. And if he can’t start, his value is... not a ton. Obviously the meaning of his reaction is speculation, but if he went to RR and said he has trouble with 4 days rest, I think RR had every right to tell him tough. Or... head to the bullpen. But... I agree that RR has been generally poor with the staff. But I don’t think he should let them dictate terms.... especially guys who are lucky to suit up as it is. Last time I checked 5 was not less than 5. And 5 days is extra rest.
If he pitched an average of 2 innings every three days he'd pitch 122 innings. If he pitched as well as he has this year on 5 days rest (the theory being that in those cases he throws a side midway), he's be worth a ton. Or if you go to a 6 man rotation to protect Sale, he might end up starting and be even more valuable.
Oh, you think that if an employee tells his boss that he doesn't believe he can help the company doing X but could be very useful doing Y, and can explain why, and if they asked the big boss he'd agree ... the boss should just tell him "tough"? Saying "I think you're setting me up to fail here, while I could excel if you gave me an extra day of rest" is not exactly dictating terms.
Meanwhile, the best game of Brewer's life was on 2 days rest. Subsequently, as a starter on 4 days he's been hammered twice. He could have gone on 3 days yesterday to give Godley 5.
It may be true he is better on 5 days rest, but it’s tough to experiment with that this season as we are short on starting pitchers and pitchers eating up innings as it is. Pitching 2 innings every 3 days sounds good in theory but if it’s on a day where a traditional starter (hopefully more of that next season) goes 6 in a close game I think we would want to pitch our 7th through 9th innings more reliable relievers at that point. Who knows maybe we can make it work somehow. I am disappointed with RR though.
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Post by manfred on Sept 5, 2020 8:07:58 GMT -5
Is the difference starting and relieving? Not the rest? For example: how did he do on 3-5 days rest the first time through? Here is the thing: a guy who can’t succeed on 3-5 days rest can’t start. And if he can’t start, his value is... not a ton. Obviously the meaning of his reaction is speculation, but if he went to RR and said he has trouble with 4 days rest, I think RR had every right to tell him tough. Or... head to the bullpen. But... I agree that RR has been generally poor with the staff. But I don’t think he should let them dictate terms.... especially guys who are lucky to suit up as it is. Last time I checked 5 was not less than 5. And 5 days is extra rest.
If he pitched an average of 2 innings every three days he'd pitch 122 innings. If he pitched as well as he has this year on 5 days rest (the theory being that in those cases he throws a side midway), he's be worth a ton. Or if you go to a 6 man rotation to protect Sale, he might end up starting and be even more valuable.
Oh, you think that if an employee tells his boss that he doesn't believe he can help the company doing X but could be very useful doing Y, and can explain why, and if they asked the big boss he'd agree ... the boss should just tell him "tough"? Saying "I think you're setting me up to fail here, while I could excel if you gave me an extra day of rest" is not exactly dictating terms.
Meanwhile, the best game of Brewer's life was on 2 days rest. Subsequently, as a starter on 4 days he's been hammered twice. He could have gone on 3 days yesterday to give Godley 5.
Yeah, I am saying I don’t rearrange my rotation to accommodate a 6th starter. If he requires “the Godley Rules” to perform, he is not special enough to keep. Now your Sale scenario is slightly different. Sale has earned “Sale rules.” But that isn’t what is happening here. Add: and, as often happens, you ignore the legitimate questions and jump straight to the arrogant sniping. As I asked: how does he do the first time around in those bad starts? And here is the other thing: the Red Sox have one major league starter on their roster. A guy who says he functions best in a six man rotation is not exactly helpful this point. I don’t imagine Godley has done any breakdown of his rest that the organization is unaware of. But when the team asks you to throw, you throw unless you are hurt. That is pretty basic team sport ethic.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 5, 2020 9:13:16 GMT -5
Great win!
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Sept 5, 2020 11:03:08 GMT -5
part of effective managing requires the manager to fully understand the staff, their strengths and weaknesses. Not just in baseball, in any endeavor. Knowing (and accepting) what makes each player excell or fail in specific circumstances on a daily basis, and using their skills accordingly is managing 101. That’s what stats are all about, an important tool for managing a team. If Player “x” can’t hit lefties, don’t start him against a lefty pitcher if you want The team to perform maximally. Right?
A 25 member baseball team is not that hard to figure out, especially with several specialty coaches and FO specialists constantly feeding you information. If a pitcher quantifiably pitches best on a certain schedule, I would think it is the manager’s responsibility to insure the team benefits from using him, and all players, optimally wherever possible.
If Godly can generally give 5 good innings on a certain schedule, this both enhances a chance to win while actually saving the bullpen. The Charge of the Light Brigade is generally regarded as a stupid military move, despite the literary excellence. Demanding a player perform optimally under verifiably poor of circumstances is not good managing. Baseball is neither the military nor a monastery (or grade school) in which obedience is of utmost importance. Those days are, thankfully, gone.
Of course the players don’t run the team and Godly wasn’t trying to. I always listened to my staff and incorporated their suggestions into the programs which I ran. My good bosses listened to me and the other managers and succeeded. My bad bosses, wearing blinders and earplugs, laid down the law and expected obedience and both they and staff underperformed consistently. I would have listened to Godley and found a way to accomodate. If he succeeded, we all win.
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