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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 4, 2020 8:49:47 GMT -5
So for what it's worth, the better number is probably 19 of the now 43 guys on the 40-man and long-term IL (accounting for Pedroia, Sale, Rodriguez). And it's debatable whether the five guys they added over the winter to protect them from Rule 5 should really count.
Point stands that he's turned over at least roughly half the 40-man in less than a year.
EDIT: Or what Eric said. Didn't realize I wasn't on the last page.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 4, 2020 12:21:06 GMT -5
So we're trading prospects for fair contracts or getting fair contracts and a minor prospect for doing it? Do you have an example of what exactly you envision? A guy like Pham? What do you mean by players launching careers younger and faster? You mean teams calling up young guys quicker? Not a Pham, no long term contract. For part A, more guys that already have longer contracts at a fair fairly break even price. Say a guy that looks like he's going to generate about 2 WAR but cost $14m and has 3 or 4 more years on his contract. I don't mean a Wil Meyers here and I am not talking about significant gain or loss of prospects either. I think that small and medium financed teams are going to look to contract this year and willing to part with players just to get out of obligations. For the same reason that $$ made the trade deadline a sellers market, it will make the offseason a buyers market. I think across baseball players are generally faster tracked to the upper levels before coming into major league baseball and those players are making an immediate splash. It's not just the Acunas, Tatis and Soto's, it's also the Cronenworths and lower ranked first timers holding their own, not struggling like you would expect. I used Pham because he's Arb 3 next year, last year of contract. Made 8 million this year, he'll be around 12-14 million next year. Which way are the prospects going? Are trading them or getting them? I still think a lot of teams just non-tender guys rather than risk there is no market and they are stuck with them like Bradley this year. Pham is a very interesting case because they traded a bunch to get him, yet he hasn't been good and will be going into his age 33 season. Cronenworth is almost 27 though. He's like a Travis Shaw where he just got crazy better at an older age.
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Post by soxjim on Sept 4, 2020 15:14:02 GMT -5
With all those additions, the focus will likely change now. Here's why: Looking at 2022, a possible lineup Duran Verdugo Xander Casas Devers JDM Downs CVaz Benintendi Possible starters Sale ERod Eovaldi Groome Mata Houck Darwinzon Seabold Pivetta We also have decent bench and reliever candidates. That's a potential World Series team. My guess, he will focus on tweaking that and has a lot of time to do just that. We might take on some one year contracts to make the team at least reasonable in 2021. It's also a potential 4th or 5th place AL East team.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 4, 2020 15:44:21 GMT -5
With all those additions, the focus will likely change now. Here's why: Looking at 2022, a possible lineup Duran Verdugo Xander Casas Devers JDM Downs CVaz Benintendi Possible starters Sale ERod Eovaldi Groome Mata Houck Darwinzon Seabold Pivetta We also have decent bench and reliever candidates. That's a potential World Series team. My guess, he will focus on tweaking that and has a lot of time to do just that. We might take on some one year contracts to make the team at least reasonable in 2021. It's also a potential 4th or 5th place AL East team. I agree and I have a feeling Bloom does, too, so he'll be very busy changing what that projection looks like.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 4, 2020 16:05:58 GMT -5
Updating the projected final winter roster, with changes in bold. Remember that traded guys will have their spots filled with an equivalent, so the math should be fairly accurate regardless of churn level.
C (4): Vazquez, Plawecki; Wong, Grullon CIF (4): Devers, Dalbec, Acquisition; Potts MIF (4-6): [Pedroia], Bogaerts, Chavis, Peraza or alternative; Arauz, [Chatham] OF (7): Benintendi, Martinez, Verdugo, CF Acquisition, 4th OF Acquisition; Rosario, Wilson (added to ATS indicates he's a likely keeper)
That's 19 to 21. They'll leave a spot open for the Rule 5, so that's 18 to 20 pitchers. I agree with adding a starter and one or more relievers.
Who are definite?
SP (10): Rodriguez, Sale, Eovaldi, Perez, Pivetta, Acquisition; Seabold, Houck, Mata, Groome
RP: (6) Barnes, Taylor, Valdez, Brasier, 1 acquisition, 1 acquisition or selection from below (has to project as bullpen asset, with worst-case MLB caliber, by season's end)
SW: (1) Hernandez
So that would leave 1 to 4 spots for Aybar and the fourteen plates of lasagna that have been hurled against the wall, or this winter's versions of same.
* are out of options.
Brice*, Weber, Godley*, Mazza, Brewer, Kickham*, Springs, Stock, Leyer, Triggs, Walden, Covey, Hall, Hart. Obviously you hope a bunch can get through waivers. I just demoted Brice and Weber from the definites. I think Godley may be a better candidate than either, as an ongoing resurrection project who has shown promise (every other appearance, in fact). I like what I've seen of Mazza, Stock, and Leyer. Covey had good results in his brief shot, so I'm not sure why he hasn't gotten another.
The ultimate decision on which of these guys ends up on the roster may depend on who they can get through waivers.
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Post by soxin8 on Sept 5, 2020 13:15:34 GMT -5
I saw an article that said he can apply for the deferment again next year but after being turned down this year, it was less likely to be granted. I thought this was a huge loss this year considering the work he could have done in Pawtucket and how Groome seems to be progressing there. What is his minimum commitment if he does not get a deferment? I believe it is two years with him doing service part time after he is done with baseball. Someone can correct me if this is wrong.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 7, 2020 1:02:29 GMT -5
I was thinking about the 40 man and a couple of things come to mind.
First, we don't know if the two PTBNL need to be on the 40 man this year. That's not a given, especially the Colorado player.
Second, with all the financial turmoil, this is likely to be the year of the haves and have nots Bloom might be in a position to do enough of a rebuild to be competitive in 2021.
Third, this is also likely to be the year of the non tenders and bubble non tenders. There could be a lot of gold to be mined, especially if Bloom can identify those players that would be a good fit and reasonably priced before they actually get non tendered.
I expect massive turnover among the non stars on the team. No need for expensive free agents and no need for taking on albatross contracts. It's going to be a buyers market.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 7, 2020 3:44:05 GMT -5
I was thinking about the 40 man and a couple of things come to mind. First, we don't know if the two PTBNL need to be on the 40 man this year. That's not a given, especially the Colorado player. Second, with all the financial turmoil, this is likely to be the year of the haves and have nots Bloom might be in a position to do enough of a rebuild to be competitive in 2021. Third, this is also likely to be the year of the non tenders and bubble non tenders. There could be a lot of gold to be mined, especially if Bloom can identify those players that would be a good fit and reasonably priced before they actually get non tendered. I expect massive turnover among the non stars on the team. No need for expensive free agents and no need for taking on albatross contracts. It's going to be a buyers market. Let's just say there's a lot of talent out there that will be available just because of the bucks. Who might be traded, because we can pick up a definitely better but more expensive player (one with fewer years before free agency, too)?
Chavis and Dalbec leap out among the position players, and of course they're similar talents.
We should be rooting for both of them to have a great last three weeks.
I would have to put Taylor, Brazier, and Valdez on that list, too.
And of course we could already use a SP and relievers, and a CF and 4th Ofer, and probably a better backup MI than Munoz / Peraza / Lin.
Basically, we can ignore the non-tenders and too-expensive veteran contracts at C, SS, 3B, and probably corner OF. Everyone else will be highly interesting.
I'd love to see an analysis of which teams will seem likely to be shedding talent for financial reasons.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 7, 2020 4:39:34 GMT -5
Carrying that one step further, for someone like Peraza we could eat most of his salary for 2021 as well. So in that example, it would be Peraza plus money for a more expensive second base upgrade.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 7, 2020 12:35:54 GMT -5
Peraza is probably getting non-tendered. I can't imagine anyone wanting to trade for him at this point.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 7, 2020 13:42:00 GMT -5
Peraza is probably getting non-tendered. I can't imagine anyone wanting to trade for him at this point. Yeah, but the general idea of paying some salary in a trade is a sound one.
The only guy that would seem to be a candidate is Barnes, who could get $4M in Arb for his final year. We could help out with in the process of getting someone better but more expensive. Or just get prospects and sign Liam Hendricks (uninformed, shiny-toy opinion!).
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Post by unitspin on Sept 7, 2020 17:48:24 GMT -5
The fun part talking about the 2021 and 2022 seasons is the fact the red sox will have some talented cheap talent filling in the roster and the red sox will be in a strong position to add substantial free agents. If bloom hits on a couple key pieces in the next two seasons this team could easily be a title contender.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 8, 2020 5:14:11 GMT -5
I was thinking about the 40 man and a couple of things come to mind. First, we don't know if the two PTBNL need to be on the 40 man this year. That's not a given, especially the Colorado player. Second, with all the financial turmoil, this is likely to be the year of the haves and have nots Bloom might be in a position to do enough of a rebuild to be competitive in 2021. Third, this is also likely to be the year of the non tenders and bubble non tenders. There could be a lot of gold to be mined, especially if Bloom can identify those players that would be a good fit and reasonably priced before they actually get non tendered. I expect massive turnover among the non stars on the team. No need for expensive free agents and no need for taking on albatross contracts. It's going to be a buyers market. Let's just say there's a lot of talent out there that will be available just because of the bucks. Who might be traded, because we can pick up a definitely better but more expensive player (one with fewer years before free agency, too)? Chavis and Dalbec leap out among the position players, and of course they're similar talents. We should be rooting for both of them to have a great last three weeks. I would have to put Taylor, Brazier, and Valdez on that list, too.
And of course we could already use a SP and relievers, and a CF and 4th Ofer, and probably a better backup MI than Munoz / Peraza / Lin.
Basically, we can ignore the non-tenders and too-expensive veteran contracts at C, SS, 3B, and probably corner OF. Everyone else will be highly interesting. I'd love to see an analysis of which teams will seem likely to be shedding talent for financial reasons.
Do you remember the scene in Monty Python and The Holy Grail where the girls were pleading 'spank me, spank me' ? Seems like Detroit, Kansas City, Miami, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, Colorado, Arizona & Seattle among others are going to be asking to be spanked. It's one think for billionaires to lose millions, another thing for millionaires to lose millions.
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Post by jdb on Sept 8, 2020 7:43:52 GMT -5
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 8, 2020 8:22:44 GMT -5
Apart from taking on existing contracts, the Sox can acquire free agents to be who will cost too much. The reverse Mookie. Now they have the reset to do it, and the market has softened. With that preface, and ignoring the X duplication, how much would Lindor command? Just for giggles, if you sent Verdugo and Jeter to Cleveland and signed Lindor for 8/200, did you come out ahead?
Just a conceptual discussion. You can do same with others like Arrenado who fits better positionally and maybe only 6/130.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Sept 8, 2020 8:57:39 GMT -5
Apart from taking on existing contracts, the Sox can acquire free agents to be who will cost too much. The reverse Mookie. Now they have the reset to do it, and the market has softened. With that preface, and ignoring the X duplication, how much would Lindor command? Just for giggles, if you sent Verdugo and Jeter to Cleveland and signed Lindor for 8/200, did you come out ahead? Just a conceptual discussion. You can do same with others like Arrenado who fits better positionally and maybe only 6/130. No... if you send Verdugo and Downs to Cleveland for Lindor you do not come out ahead. Keep the young cheap guys. Don’t basically trade Mookie and Price for a guy who plays in the spot of your best remaining player for not that much of a discount.
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Post by RedSoxStats on Sept 8, 2020 9:04:57 GMT -5
Verdugo's career: 649 PA, 4.8 WAR.
Lindor averages 5.3 WAR per 649 PA.
Lindor's 7.8 in 2018 is probably better than a Verdugo peak, but giving him up for 1 year of Lindor and a "signing promise" is insane.
See if Lindor will take your money when Betts wouldn't.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Sept 8, 2020 9:29:07 GMT -5
Why is Lindor even an option? I heard the Sox have this really good Shortstop on the team. But I've been known to be wrong from time to time.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 8, 2020 9:43:07 GMT -5
Why is Lindor even an option? I heard the Sox have this really good Shortstop on the team. But I've been known to be wrong from time to time. I'm not saying "Go get Lindor" but there is the possibility that Xander's range, while adequate, could deteriorate over the next couple of seasons to force a move. Of course the flipside of this is if you sign Lindor, it's going to be long-term and how long will he last as a SS? Like Bogaerts, he's a wonderful offensive player, but if you have to move off of the SS position, then you lose value. Honestly if they eventually have to move Bogaerts off of SS down the road, then I hope it's for somebody that's young, in the farm system, has a promising stick - I hope Matthew Lugo develops, and can be at SS for awhile. It also brings up an interesting question. If X opts out or wants his deal renegotiated what happens if his range at SS is becoming inadequate? We're not there now. X is a capable defensive SS. Reliable with ok (but not good) range. But it is a question for the future. I have trouble penciling him in at SS up thru the 2026 season.
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Post by Smittyw on Sept 8, 2020 11:20:42 GMT -5
While acknowledging that we're just shooting the breeze here, trading multiple young controllable pieces (Verdugo and Downs were mentioned) for a guy you then have to sign for $200 or 300 million just feels like...the opposite of where the Bloom regime is going with all of this. I would rather they had just given Mookie a blank check than go that route.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Sept 8, 2020 11:26:46 GMT -5
Yeah, I ‘m not dredging up Mookie stuff, but once you say you are going to go huge contract, it really ought to have been him. That move makes sense only in the context of going young and cheap and spreading resources.
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 8, 2020 11:36:33 GMT -5
Since I brought it up, let me explain my thinking more. First, all of this is premised in wanting to be competitive next year. Without an impact FA you will have to do a reverse Mookie. My question was whether you would essentially trade Mookie at 12/360 for Lindor at a market reset 7/200 or so. You get a market reset, but also a better priced guy both in years and cost. Recognizing he’s not Mookie, he’s close to half the commitment. Again, just in concept that if the 360 range is too pricy, you still play in the 200 range. Maybe I’m undeestimating the market correction,
Second, if they are not needing to be competitive next year, they can wait for the free agents and hold on to the cost controlled chips. Maybe the better route is to shop not for free agents to be, but past free agents now too pricey
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Sept 8, 2020 11:45:13 GMT -5
Since I brought it up, let me explain my thinking more. First, all of this is premised in wanting to be competitive next year. Without an impact FA you will have to do a reverse Mookie. My question was whether you would essentially trade Mookie at 12/360 for Lindor at a market reset 7/200 or so. You get a market reset, but also a better priced guy both in years and cost. Recognizing he’s not Mookie, he’s close to half the commitment. Again, just in concept that if the 360 range is too pricy, you still play in the 200 range. Maybe I’m undeestimating the market correction, Second, if they are not needing to be competitive next year, they can wait for the free agents and hold on to the cost controlled chips. Maybe the better route is to shop not for free agents to be, but past free agents now too pricey The competitive problem for next year is first and foremost pitching — so Lindor (minus Verdugo, which means they’d have only Benny signed in the OF for next year) doesn’t help. Verdugo will likely be close enough to Lindor that the improvement is minimal — but Verdugo is in a position of greater need. Unless Benny gets it together, AV is basically the only OF who can be counted on to hit water from a boat.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 8, 2020 12:15:55 GMT -5
Since I brought it up, let me explain my thinking more. First, all of this is premised in wanting to be competitive next year. Without an impact FA you will have to do a reverse Mookie. My question was whether you would essentially trade Mookie at 12/360 for Lindor at a market reset 7/200 or so. You get a market reset, but also a better priced guy both in years and cost. Recognizing he’s not Mookie, he’s close to half the commitment. Again, just in concept that if the 360 range is too pricy, you still play in the 200 range. Maybe I’m undeestimating the market correction, Second, if they are not needing to be competitive next year, they can wait for the free agents and hold on to the cost controlled chips. Maybe the better route is to shop not for free agents to be, but past free agents now too pricey The competitive problem for next year is first and foremost pitching — so Lindor (minus Verdugo, which means they’d have only Benny signed in the OF for next year) doesn’t help. Verdugo will likely be close enough to Lindor that the improvement is minimal — but Verdugo is in a position of greater need. Unless Benny gets it together, AV is basically the only OF who can be counted on to hit water from a boat. Yep. Considering that you'd lose Verdugo, and you'd move Bogaerts to a position where he has less value (1B?), and you'd therefore lose the ability to make additions at that position, I think the trade would literally make the team worse in the very first year while also making the payroll situation worse and sacrificing future value as well.
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Post by unitspin on Sept 8, 2020 12:44:32 GMT -5
There is some decent pitching options on the market this off season that could take one year prove it deals that the red sox could take a swing with. The lineup with jd coming back is good enough for a run at the ship. Whos to say bloom cant patch up the bullpen and rotation and catch lightning in a bottle. I doubt teams are going to be handing out big deals to pitchers in this market.
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