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Post by soxin8 on Sept 9, 2020 16:21:43 GMT -5
Will there be 10 playoff teams next year or 16? Will they discuss that after the season? If it is 16, you have to believe with better health and a couple off season moves that this will only be a single off season of not competing for a playoff spot.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 9, 2020 16:59:23 GMT -5
www.spotrac.com/mlb/kansas-city-royals/payroll/2021/The Royals only have 36 million in contracts on the books for next year. They aren't a great example of a team that will be looking to just dump players for nothing due to money. I'd be shocked if they traded Merrifield to just dump money after 11.9 bwar in the three years before this one. He's owed 10.25 million for two years with the buyout included or 10 million for a third year. Heck even in this up coming bad market that should still have good value. I think it's going to be bad, yet if it's that bad Baseball is in big trouble.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 9, 2020 23:41:29 GMT -5
www.spotrac.com/mlb/kansas-city-royals/payroll/2021/The Royals only have 36 million in contracts on the books for next year. They aren't a great example of a team that will be looking to just dump players for nothing due to money. I'd be shocked if they traded Merrifield to just dump money after 11.9 bwar in the three years before this one. He's owed 10.25 million for two years with the buyout included or 10 million for a third year. Heck even in this up coming bad market that should still have good value. I think it's going to be bad, yet if it's that bad Baseball is in big trouble. The estimated Net Worth of John J Sherman is at least $16 Million dollars as of 30 July 2014. *Google Data is old but that should yield a picture of what it's like to lose money. Like most clubs, the team was purchased by a small millionaire with financial backing, in this case the purchase price was $1 billion. There will be pressure.
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cdj
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Posts: 14,149
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Post by cdj on Sept 10, 2020 0:15:34 GMT -5
Most franchises not having John Henry as an owner is the new market inefficiency
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 10, 2020 4:29:48 GMT -5
Some vague questions to ponder...
If the value of 1 WAR increased as revenues increased, what's the value of 1 WAR in a revenue collapse ? . . . If we complete this season, it's more likely we will have a full season next year but there's no guarantees of attendance. What happens in a full season when the fan rules in Mass. are likely to be different from Ohio, from California, from Minnesota, etc. . . . If we have a full season with no fans, will teams financially collapse ? . . . If teams are likely to lose more money by playing baseball than not playing baseball, what's the motivation to concede anything to the players union when the cheapest way out would be a total lockout ?
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Post by unitspin on Sept 10, 2020 4:36:34 GMT -5
I do not see any club spending big this off season. Think there will be alot of one year deals hoping the market rebounds but this could be a new age for big money deals. Most teams will be hesitant to sign that 8-10 year deal. How is San Diego staying afloat id like to know. Ive been to their park before they give tickets away.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 10, 2020 4:45:50 GMT -5
I do not see any club spending big this off season. Think there will be alot of one year deals hoping the market rebounds but this could be a new age for big money deals. Most teams will be hesitant to sign that 8-10 year deal. How is San Diego staying afloat id like to know. Ive been to their park before they give tickets away. In the past, revenue sharing but that well is getting pretty dry. In a year or two, the Dodgers and Yankees could be looking pretty dumb no matter how well their newfound studs perform.
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Post by unitspin on Sept 10, 2020 6:00:44 GMT -5
I do not see any club spending big this off season. Think there will be alot of one year deals hoping the market rebounds but this could be a new age for big money deals. Most teams will be hesitant to sign that 8-10 year deal. How is San Diego staying afloat id like to know. Ive been to their park before they give tickets away. In the past, revenue sharing but that well is getting pretty dry. In a year or two, the Dodgers and Yankees could be looking pretty dumb no matter how well their newfound studs perform. At least the dodgers are setup to contend for the foreseeable future the yanks look like a dumpster fire, and need to get under the cap next season. I agree the team dependant on a paycheck from the league will be in a tough spot next year.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 10, 2020 6:48:53 GMT -5
In the past, revenue sharing but that well is getting pretty dry. In a year or two, the Dodgers and Yankees could be looking pretty dumb no matter how well their newfound studs perform. At least the dodgers are setup to contend for the foreseeable future the yanks look like a dumpster fire, and need to get under the cap next season. I agree the team dependant on a paycheck from the league will be in a tough spot next year. True but in terms of those specific contracts, Cole was signed before anybody knew about Covid, Betts after everyone knew. The Dodgers bailed out the Red Sox on the lux tax. Who is going to bail out the Yankees ?
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Post by unitspin on Sept 10, 2020 9:23:17 GMT -5
Ya I do not see anyone taking on stantons contract. Unless yanks add some serious cheap talent into that trade.
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Post by jdb on Sept 10, 2020 11:17:34 GMT -5
I think with the draft position the Sox will have next year, I wonder if they will be in the market for anyone who receives a QO. I think I would prefer they not surrender a high second rounder. Maybe we could have a list of preferred players without compensation attached to them? Taijuan Walker seems to be making the comeback some here suggested he might. Ozuna looked impressive. Has he been tagged with a QO yet? Ozuna is interesting to me. He didn’t have a great market and settled on 1 and $18M from the Braves, he’s been offered the QO so he can’t get it again and I don’t know if that 4 year deal will be out there for him in the market. In my opinion one way to contend and build the farm is trade Bennitendi (Vazquez too) prospects or a young starter and sign Ozuna. I think it would jump start the pitching rebuild and it’s easier to get FA pillow deals to build value in Fenway on the position side.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 10, 2020 12:46:39 GMT -5
www.spotrac.com/mlb/kansas-city-royals/payroll/2021/The Royals only have 36 million in contracts on the books for next year. They aren't a great example of a team that will be looking to just dump players for nothing due to money. I'd be shocked if they traded Merrifield to just dump money after 11.9 bwar in the three years before this one. He's owed 10.25 million for two years with the buyout included or 10 million for a third year. Heck even in this up coming bad market that should still have good value. I think it's going to be bad, yet if it's that bad Baseball is in big trouble. The estimated Net Worth of John J Sherman is at least $16 Million dollars as of 30 July 2014. *Google Data is old but that should yield a picture of what it's like to lose money. Like most clubs, the team was purchased by a small millionaire with financial backing, in this case the purchase price was $1 billion. There will be pressure. www.monstersandcritics.com/sport/mlb/john-sherman-net-worth-how-much-money-does-the-potential-kansas-city-royals-owner-have/This says 1-1.5 Billion is his net worth. Which makes total sense. After the Dodgers mess no way the MLB sold a team to a guy for 1 billion that only had a net worth of 16 million. Heck even A-Rod and J-Lo didn't have a net worth to go up against other billionaires for the Mets and they are worth 700 million combined. Even if they wanted to trade him, you think no teams are in on him? He's basically two years 10.25 million, with a third year option. I expect a bad market, I don't expect a market where one of the best contracts in Baseball is now horrible and has no value. I hope you're right, yet if you are Baseball is in real trouble if it's that bad. Where a team like the Royals can't spend 50-60 million.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 10, 2020 13:09:32 GMT -5
The estimated Net Worth of John J Sherman is at least $16 Million dollars as of 30 July 2014. *Google Data is old but that should yield a picture of what it's like to lose money. Like most clubs, the team was purchased by a small millionaire with financial backing, in this case the purchase price was $1 billion. There will be pressure. www.monstersandcritics.com/sport/mlb/john-sherman-net-worth-how-much-money-does-the-potential-kansas-city-royals-owner-have/This says 1-1.5 Billion is his net worth. Which makes total sense. After the Dodgers mess no way the MLB sold a team to a guy for 1 billion that only had a net worth of 16 million. Heck even A-Rod and J-Lo didn't have a net worth to go up against other billionaires for the Mets and they are worth 700 million combined. Even if they wanted to trade him, you think no teams are in on him? He's basically two years 10.25 million, with a third year option. I expect a bad market, I don't expect a market where one of the best contracts in Baseball is now horrible and has no value. I hope you're right, yet if you are Baseball is in real trouble if it's that bad. Where a team like the Royals can't spend 50-60 million. According to this list, John Henry is only the 10th-wealthiest owner in MLB, and there are 18 billionaire owners. So yeah, maybe the Red Sox can leverage this situation to their advantage, but the idea that we can just scoop up any player we want from small market teams for peanuts seems like wishful thinking.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 10, 2020 13:17:52 GMT -5
The estimated Net Worth of John J Sherman is at least $16 Million dollars as of 30 July 2014. *Google Data is old but that should yield a picture of what it's like to lose money. Like most clubs, the team was purchased by a small millionaire with financial backing, in this case the purchase price was $1 billion. There will be pressure. www.monstersandcritics.com/sport/mlb/john-sherman-net-worth-how-much-money-does-the-potential-kansas-city-royals-owner-have/This says 1-1.5 Billion is his net worth. Which makes total sense. After the Dodgers mess no way the MLB sold a team to a guy for 1 billion that only had a net worth of 16 million. Heck even A-Rod and J-Lo didn't have a net worth to go up against other billionaires for the Mets and they are worth 700 million combined. Even if they wanted to trade him, you think no teams are in on him? He's basically two years 10.25 million, with a third year option. I expect a bad market, I don't expect a market where one of the best contracts in Baseball is now horrible and has no value. I hope you're right, yet if you are Baseball is in real trouble if it's that bad. Where a team like the Royals can't spend 50-60 million. A couple random thoughts. Merrifield was floated at the trade deadline, no takers. We can't know what went on behind closed doors though. The issue for next year isn't the known, it's the unknown. There's no way to know about fan attendance and therefore no way to know what can be expected for revenues. The loses could potentially be 2.7 times what the loses are this year. How many marbles will be on the table in an unknown situation ? ARoid and JaLo had two problems. First, if they were the winning bidders, it's unlikely they would get the 23 votes needed for confirmation after all the drug issues and threats to sue MLB. Second, they were competing with someone that has more money than any of the current owners.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 10, 2020 13:34:08 GMT -5
www.monstersandcritics.com/sport/mlb/john-sherman-net-worth-how-much-money-does-the-potential-kansas-city-royals-owner-have/This says 1-1.5 Billion is his net worth. Which makes total sense. After the Dodgers mess no way the MLB sold a team to a guy for 1 billion that only had a net worth of 16 million. Heck even A-Rod and J-Lo didn't have a net worth to go up against other billionaires for the Mets and they are worth 700 million combined. Even if they wanted to trade him, you think no teams are in on him? He's basically two years 10.25 million, with a third year option. I expect a bad market, I don't expect a market where one of the best contracts in Baseball is now horrible and has no value. I hope you're right, yet if you are Baseball is in real trouble if it's that bad. Where a team like the Royals can't spend 50-60 million. A couple random thoughts. Merrifield was floated at the trade deadline, no takers. We can't know what went on behind closed doors though. The issue for next year isn't the known, it's the unknown. There's no way to know about fan attendance and therefore no way to know what can be expected for revenues. The loses could potentially be 2.7 times what the loses are this year. How many marbles will be on the table in an unknown situation ? ARoid and JaLo had two problems. First, if they were the winning bidders, it's unlikely they would get the 23 votes needed for confirmation after all the drug issues and threats to sue MLB. Second, they were competing with someone that has more money than any of the current owners. So you think he wasn't traded because no one wanted his salary or they couldn't get what they were asking? Vazquez was floated at the deadline, lots of guys are. If they just wanted to unload his salary he wouldn't be with the Royals right now. Money talks, I don't for a second think the owners wouldn't have approved the sale if it increased there values. They couldn't make the best bid. I actually think they'd want star owners. If anything it would be the worry about them breaking up and what that could do. Look at the Dodgers. The unknowns are big, yet you likely act like no fans and be surprised if you can have them. Which will make for a bad market and lots of trades. It's just the level you are going to, a guy on a team friendly deal making peanuts who averaged over 3 bwar the last three years with three years of control. Compared to a guy like Pham having a bad season and going to make 12-14 million next year in arb three.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 10, 2020 13:40:51 GMT -5
www.monstersandcritics.com/sport/mlb/john-sherman-net-worth-how-much-money-does-the-potential-kansas-city-royals-owner-have/This says 1-1.5 Billion is his net worth. Which makes total sense. After the Dodgers mess no way the MLB sold a team to a guy for 1 billion that only had a net worth of 16 million. Heck even A-Rod and J-Lo didn't have a net worth to go up against other billionaires for the Mets and they are worth 700 million combined. Even if they wanted to trade him, you think no teams are in on him? He's basically two years 10.25 million, with a third year option. I expect a bad market, I don't expect a market where one of the best contracts in Baseball is now horrible and has no value. I hope you're right, yet if you are Baseball is in real trouble if it's that bad. Where a team like the Royals can't spend 50-60 million. According to this list, John Henry is only the 10th-wealthiest owner in MLB, and there are 18 billionaire owners. So yeah, maybe the Red Sox can leverage this situation to their advantage, but the idea that we can just scoop up any player we want from small market teams for peanuts seems like wishful thinking. Interesting article. A couple of things I am really surprised about is the net worth of owners whose teams never approach the lux tax limits like the Twins, Tigers and Indians. In the opening paragraph, it says MLB is losing $75 million a day. That's more than I would have thought. There's actually a fairly tight cluster moneywise near the top. The winning bidder for the Mets is worth 4 times the richest owner.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 10, 2020 13:56:51 GMT -5
A couple random thoughts. Merrifield was floated at the trade deadline, no takers. We can't know what went on behind closed doors though. The issue for next year isn't the known, it's the unknown. There's no way to know about fan attendance and therefore no way to know what can be expected for revenues. The loses could potentially be 2.7 times what the loses are this year. How many marbles will be on the table in an unknown situation ? ARoid and JaLo had two problems. First, if they were the winning bidders, it's unlikely they would get the 23 votes needed for confirmation after all the drug issues and threats to sue MLB. Second, they were competing with someone that has more money than any of the current owners. So you think he wasn't traded because no one wanted his salary or they couldn't get what they were asking? Vazquez was floated at the deadline, lots of guys are. If they just wanted to unload his salary he wouldn't be with the Royals right now. Money talks, I don't for a second think the owners wouldn't have approved the sale if it increased there values. They couldn't make the best bid. I actually think they'd want star owners. If anything it would be the worry about them breaking up and what that could do. Look at the Dodgers. The unknowns are big, yet you likely act like no fans and be surprised if you can have them. Which will make for a bad market and lots of trades. It's just the level you are going to, a guy on a team friendly deal making peanuts who averaged over 3 bwar the last three years with three years of control. Compared to a guy like Pham having a bad season and going to make 12-14 million next year in arb three. I think his not being traded was a combination of both. Look at the entire mass of trades, the only one I see where a team took on significant future money was Clevinger but the return the Indians got was nowhere near what the Padres gave up for a cost controlled catcher with less value than Clevinger. The trade deadline is heat of battle, the off season isn't. It may or may not deteriorate to the level of the Merrifields of the world but that remains to be seen. Again though, what is the value of 1 WAR with negative revenues ?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 10, 2020 14:26:20 GMT -5
If the numbers in the article above are correct and we have no fans next year...
$75 million/day = 14 billion over a 187 day season. That's more than the net worth of the three largest owners combined. $75 million/day = on average $2.5m per team per day or $467m per team on average for a season.
Exactly how long do we expect no changes ?
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 10, 2020 14:33:37 GMT -5
According to this list, John Henry is only the 10th-wealthiest owner in MLB, and there are 18 billionaire owners. So yeah, maybe the Red Sox can leverage this situation to their advantage, but the idea that we can just scoop up any player we want from small market teams for peanuts seems like wishful thinking. Interesting article. A couple of things I am really surprised about is the net worth of owners whose teams never approach the lux tax limits like the Twins, Tigers and Indians. In the opening paragraph, it says MLB is losing $75 million a day. That's more than I would have thought. There's actually a fairly tight cluster moneywise near the top. The winning bidder for the Mets is worth 4 times the richest owner. That's because super-rich guys fall into two categories, those whose goal in life was to get as wealthy as possible (often by being ruthless, e.g., paying employees as little as imaginable), and guys who made a fortune doing something they loved that happened to make them super-rich. Basically Sam Walton versus Warren Buffet.
The latter type are less common and Henry seems to be one. He basically got into investment analytics, and for certain minds, any kind of analytics is fun. I did some stock analytics at my brother's request and it was definitely fun.
Only the latter type is willing to go all-in on team spending to pursue a championship. They're guys who love baseball and always dreamed of owning a team that won the WS. The first type are guys who like baseball, and see owning a team as another good investment. Some of them, I think, also like the idea of being fewer degrees of separation from famous people.
So any ranking opf likely behavior this winter needs to mix ownership wealth (and expected future revenue) with known spending.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 10, 2020 14:46:59 GMT -5
So you think he wasn't traded because no one wanted his salary or they couldn't get what they were asking? Vazquez was floated at the deadline, lots of guys are. If they just wanted to unload his salary he wouldn't be with the Royals right now. Money talks, I don't for a second think the owners wouldn't have approved the sale if it increased there values. They couldn't make the best bid. I actually think they'd want star owners. If anything it would be the worry about them breaking up and what that could do. Look at the Dodgers. The unknowns are big, yet you likely act like no fans and be surprised if you can have them. Which will make for a bad market and lots of trades. It's just the level you are going to, a guy on a team friendly deal making peanuts who averaged over 3 bwar the last three years with three years of control. Compared to a guy like Pham having a bad season and going to make 12-14 million next year in arb three. I think his not being traded was a combination of both. Look at the entire mass of trades, the only one I see where a team took on significant future money was Clevinger but the return the Indians got was nowhere near what the Padres gave up for a cost controlled catcher with less value than Clevinger. The trade deadline is heat of battle, the off season isn't. It may or may not deteriorate to the level of the Merrifields of the world but that remains to be seen. Again though, what is the value of 1 WAR with negative revenues ? Well that's the million dollar question, who knows frankly. I just don't think it's 1-2 million, which is the level you'd need to make Merrifield have almost no value.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 10, 2020 14:52:01 GMT -5
If the numbers in the article above are correct and we have no fans next year... $75 million/day = 14 billion over a 187 day season. That's more than the net worth of the three largest owners combined. $75 million/day = on average $2.5m per team per day or $467m per team on average for a season. Exactly how long do we expect no changes ? 2019 MLB revenue was 10.7 Billion. Everyone says fan revenue is around 50%, so losses can't equal almost 50% more than total revenue in 2019. Those are crazy numbers. Yet they also expanded playoffs to bring in more TV revenue, so it's likely we'll below 50% now and going forward.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 10, 2020 16:28:09 GMT -5
According to this list, John Henry is only the 10th-wealthiest owner in MLB, and there are 18 billionaire owners. So yeah, maybe the Red Sox can leverage this situation to their advantage, but the idea that we can just scoop up any player we want from small market teams for peanuts seems like wishful thinking. Interesting article. A couple of things I am really surprised about is the net worth of owners whose teams never approach the lux tax limits like the Twins, Tigers and Indians. In the opening paragraph, it says MLB is losing $75 million a day. That's more than I would have thought.
There's actually a fairly tight cluster moneywise near the top. The winning bidder for the Mets is worth 4 times the richest owner. The article is from May; those were the losses when they weren't playing games at all. Presumably they make some amount of it back when games are being televised, though I have no idea what the breakdown in revenue is between TV and fans in the seats.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 10, 2020 17:10:21 GMT -5
I take that 75 million to mean they are losing 75 million in revenue per day, not that they are running a negative debt of 75 million per day. That works out and comes close to the projected 2020 total revenue. Some of that was likely the negative debt because it's higher, yet no way in hell that was all actual debt. Something like 70 million in lost revenue and five million in debt or 65/10. There is no way they were running a 2.3 billion monthly debt with no games being played. They only advanced the players 170 million over two months.
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Post by soxin8 on Sept 11, 2020 9:56:20 GMT -5
I noticed in the twitter section that people are still trying to get Pedroia to retire. There really shouldn't be a need to discuss the Pedroia contract anymore since the CBT has been reset and the Sox have shown a willingness to go over the cap until the penalty gets severe. No one should believe his salary next year will in any way affect what the Sox do this off season.
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Post by brendan98 on Sept 11, 2020 14:40:22 GMT -5
What's the chance JD Martinez opts out? He's got 2 years left at $19.375 per, unlikely anyone pays him that on and AAV, but could get 3 or 4 years at more overall money? Or has this season destroyed his value completely? Another $20M to spend would be awesome.
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