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Post by unitspin on Sept 11, 2020 14:54:50 GMT -5
What's the chance JD Martinez opts out? He's got 2 years left at $19.375 per, unlikely anyone pays him that on and AAV, but could get 3 or 4 years at more overall money? Or has this season destroyed his value completely? Another $20M to spend would be awesome. id say the chances of him opting out with his stat line is pretty close to zero.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 11, 2020 14:59:47 GMT -5
What's the chance JD Martinez opts out? He's got 2 years left at $19.375 per, unlikely anyone pays him that on and AAV, but could get 3 or 4 years at more overall money? Or has this season destroyed his value completely? Another $20M to spend would be awesome. id say the chances of him opting out with his stat line is pretty close to zero. Yeah .1 % because you never say never. Yet it's not happening.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 11, 2020 16:42:56 GMT -5
I noticed in the twitter section that people are still trying to get Pedroia to retire. There really shouldn't be a need to discuss the Pedroia contract anymore since the CBT has been reset and the Sox have shown a willingness to go over the cap until the penalty gets severe. No one should believe his salary next year will in any way affect what the Sox do this off season. It has nothing to with finance, which it won't affect at all. It's about clearing a spot on the 40-man roster when they might have a big crunch. No one's going to claim Pedey if they DFA him, and if in June he comes to the team and, miraculously, says he can play and wants to try, he can play for Worcester as the equivalent of a rehab stint. They can discuss all this with him in conjunction with bringing him into the team in some kind of coaching or front-office position.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Sept 11, 2020 18:47:43 GMT -5
I noticed in the twitter section that people are still trying to get Pedroia to retire. There really shouldn't be a need to discuss the Pedroia contract anymore since the CBT has been reset and the Sox have shown a willingness to go over the cap until the penalty gets severe. No one should believe his salary next year will in any way affect what the Sox do this off season. This discussion has to do with the 40 man roster spot and not the money I believe? Maybe I’m off on this though Edit: I should have just kept reading and seen the post above mine lol
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 11, 2020 21:32:00 GMT -5
id say the chances of him opting out with his stat line is pretty close to zero. Yeah .1 % because you never say never. Yet it's not happening. First, I think JDM will have a rebound year next year. That said, JDM at minimum wage would be one hell of a trade chip. He's sunk cost at this point and likely to opt out of his final year after next season. Lots of ways Bloom can go this offseason.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 12, 2020 1:32:29 GMT -5
I noticed in the twitter section that people are still trying to get Pedroia to retire. There really shouldn't be a need to discuss the Pedroia contract anymore since the CBT has been reset and the Sox have shown a willingness to go over the cap until the penalty gets severe. No one should believe his salary next year will in any way affect what the Sox do this off season. This discussion has to do with the 40 man roster spot and not the money I believe? Maybe I’m off on this though Edit: I should have just kept reading and seen the post above mine lol Everyone has done that! Human beings are, I think, hard-wired to correct other people.
Raw numbers:
40 men on roster + 5 on long term IL - 1 free agent + 7 prospects who need protecting + 7 or 8 necessary acquisitions* + 1 Rule 5 draftee = 59 or 60. So that's 19 or 20 players on the current 40 man or IL that need to be shed.
* Starting CF, starting 2B, 4th OFer (RHB), backup 1B (LHB), SP, Closer, 2 setup relievers. You could see 1 of the setup relievers being filled internally.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 12, 2020 5:04:24 GMT -5
Yeah .1 % because you never say never. Yet it's not happening. First, I think JDM will have a rebound year next year. That said, JDM at minimum wage would be one hell of a trade chip. He's sunk cost at this point and likely to opt out of his final year after next season. Lots of ways Bloom can go this offseason. We'll see what happens, but I'd rather extended him than trade him if he has a big 2021.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 12, 2020 5:17:47 GMT -5
First, I think JDM will have a rebound year next year. That said, JDM at minimum wage would be one hell of a trade chip. He's sunk cost at this point and likely to opt out of his final year after next season. Lots of ways Bloom can go this offseason. We'll see what happens, but I'd rather extended him than trade him if he has a big 2021. I know it didn't work out for Mookie but, if we trade him this year and he opts out next year, we could have JDM & the return for 2022. ADD: Just to be clear, I am not a proponent of blowing up the team for 2021, I believe we can be at least competitive if not flat out good. I am a proponent of upgrading. JDM at minimum wage should net 2 upgrades at weak spots. If JDM has a good year, he is likely to opt out of his last year to get a 3 or 4 year deal. If he has a bad year, he is likely to stay put and the Red Sox would have had perfect timing.
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Post by costpet on Sept 12, 2020 6:59:09 GMT -5
My lineup for 2021:
1B Dalbec 2B ? SS X man 3B Devers LF Verudgo CF Bradley Jr. RF Duran (I put him there because of his speed) C Vasquez DH Martinez
I think that's a pretty good lineup. Lots of candidates for 2B. And who the hell knows about Bennie. And Chavez.
So, if I'm Bloom, the only thing I'm thinking of is pitching. Sale, Rod., Evoldi, depending on their health, look good. But, the rest, including relief pitching, should be the emphasis. A good staff will win a lot of games and get them to the playoffs. Without pitching, it will be just like this year.
If he can do with the Sox like he did with the Rays (who have very little money), we will have a very good team. It just might take time time to evolve.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 12, 2020 7:19:45 GMT -5
40-man is currently at 39. + Pedroia, ERod, Sale (they all have to go back on the 40 over the offseason. There's no offseason injured list.) - JBJ, McHugh I do not project that JDM will opt out. So here's what you're working with, plus the 7 they need to add: C: Vazquez, Plawecki, WongCIF: Devers, Chavis, Dalbec, PottsMIF: Pedroia, Bogaerts, Chatham, Arauz, Peraza OF: Benintendi, Martinez, Wilson, Verdugo, RosarioUT: Lin, Munoz SP: Rodriguez, Sale, Eovaldi, Weber, Hart, Perez, Godley, Pivetta, Groome, Houck, Mata, SeaboldRP: Barnes, Walden, Brasier, Brewer, Taylor, Hernandez, Aybar, Brice, Springs, Valdez, Stock, Triggs, Leyer Swing: Mazza, Hall, Covey, Kickham So need at least 8 DFA or non-tenders. Seems clear most is coming from that stack o' pitching. So I'll guess cuts from the following list: Peraza (non-tender), Hart, Springs, Hall, Kickham, Mazza, Triggs, Covey, Walden. Could see one of Munoz or Lin gone although Munoz has an option. All that said, my guess is that trades might work some of this out. And they're going to need to add a starting CF whether it's JBJ, Duran, or someone else; potentially a bench OF if they're not comfortable having Lin fill that role; at least one SP and at least one RP. There is going to be a TON of churn this offseason, likely in the hopes that guys clear and stay, like Gonsalves and Shawaryn recently. My take on a final winter roster ... Guys who might be traded can be assumed to be replaced with an equivalent guy filling the same role.
I think you need a RHH 4th outfielder if you plan to contend, someone like Pillar.
I also think you want a LHH 1B as both an occasional platoon partner for Dalbec and a plan B in case he struggles and needs to go down. (If he could also play 2B occasionally -- a not unheard-of combo -- that would be a bonus). So that's a roster spot. If there's no DH in the NL next year, then an interesting guy named Mitch Moreland should be available in trade. MI: I think Peraza will be non-tendered and resigned as the backup MI at less than he'd make in arbitration, and given a chance to share 2B with Chavis. They liked him last winter and this year's sample is unlikely to change that. Or they'll swap him out for a new shinier toy. Or they keep Lin rather than trying to pass him through waivers. But in any case, that's one roster spot.
Arauz is exactly as expected: promising tools, but the skills need work in AAA. And while it would be nice to keep Munoz because of the option, you don't mourn if you try to pass him through waivers and he's claimed. So that's one more spot.
Is there any reason why Pedroia can't be DFA'd, if he acknowledges he can't play again? His salary would still count against the tax limit. I don't see the logic of a CBA rule that would force a team to use a winter roster spot every year on a guy who has suffered a career-ending injury while in the middle of a long-term contract. If they could do that, it would open up a roster spot. And while it's true that they liked Wilson well enough last year to protect him, that was in part because they had tons of room. So that's a second possible opening.
A year has passed without Chatham getting an opportunity to demonstrate that his last 148 PA last year weren't a fluke, which is what needs to be true if he's going to be an MLB backup. But given that Arauz is the guy you might be grooming for that role, maybe you trade him for a lottery ticket, so that's a third possible opening.
Let's count up the position players: C (3): Vazquez, Plawecki, Wong CIF (4): Devers, Dalbec, Acquisition, Potts MIF (4-6): [Pedroia], Bogaerts, Chavis, Peraza or alternative, Arauz, [Chatham] OF (6-7): Benintendi, Martinez, Verdugo, CF Acquisition, 4th OF Acquisition, Rosario, [Wilson]
That's 17 to 20. They'll leave a spot open for the Rule 5, so that's 19 to 22 pitchers. Who are definite? I agree with adding a starter and reliever.
SP (10): Rodriguez, Sale, Eovaldi, Perez, Pivetta, Acquisition; Seabold, Houck, Mata, Groome.
RP: (6) Barnes, Taylor, Valdez, Acquisition; Brasier and Brice at present, although that could change
SW: (2) Hernandez, Weber So that would leave 1 to 4 spots for Aybar and the dozen plates of lasagna that have been hurled against the wall, or this winter's versions of same. * are out of options.
Godley*, Mazza, Brewer, Kickham*, Springs, Stock, Leyer, Triggs, Walden, Covey, Hall, Hart. Obviously you hope a bunch can get through waivers. I think Godley is a keeper, as an ongoing resurrection project who has shown promise (every other appearance, in fact). I like what I've seen of Mazza, Stock, and Leyer. Covey had good results in his brief shot, so I'm not sure why he hasn't gotten another.
Now that the Sox have activated Tapia, there's pretty much no way he'd get through DFA or not being on the 40 man over the winter. Forearm strain for Godley, you can pretty much scratch him off the list.
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Post by unitspin on Sept 12, 2020 11:09:59 GMT -5
Chris sale already throwing that's a good sign. You know hes going to give it 100%, if ever there was a guy to come back the same or better its him.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 12, 2020 14:48:11 GMT -5
We'll see what happens, but I'd rather extended him than trade him if he has a big 2021. I know it didn't work out for Mookie but, if we trade him this year and he opts out next year, we could have JDM & the return for 2022. ADD: Just to be clear, I am not a proponent of blowing up the team for 2021, I believe we can be at least competitive if not flat out good. I am a proponent of upgrading. JDM at minimum wage should net 2 upgrades at weak spots. If JDM has a good year, he is likely to opt out of his last year to get a 3 or 4 year deal. If he has a bad year, he is likely to stay put and the Red Sox would have had perfect timing. I'm not sure a guy going into age 35 season who's a DH gets 3-4 years. Maybe yet that's not a given, really depends on how the 2021 season goes. He's a DH so I don't think you get a huge return and I never buy the trade and resign a guy. Still think ERod is the guy if you want a huge return.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Sept 12, 2020 14:58:26 GMT -5
My lineup for 2021: 1B Dalbec 2B ? SS X man 3B Devers LF Verudgo CF Bradley Jr. RF Duran (I put him there because of his speed) C Vasquez DH Martinez I think that's a pretty good lineup. Lots of candidates for 2B. And who the hell knows about Bennie. And Chavez. So, if I'm Bloom, the only thing I'm thinking of is pitching. Sale, Rod., Evoldi, depending on their health, look good. But, the rest, including relief pitching, should be the emphasis. A good staff will win a lot of games and get them to the playoffs. Without pitching, it will be just like this year. If he can do with the Sox like he did with the Rays (who have very little money), we will have a very good team. It just might take time time to evolve. I don’t think you put Duran, the one with the least experience in the outfield and the weakest arm of the three, in RF in Fenway.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 13, 2020 0:38:34 GMT -5
Still too SSS but this is exactly what I saw at summer camp for Domingo Tapia. High strike rate yet non existent strikes down the middle. Put another way, he uses the entire strike zone except the middle or BBs on the Black Box. This is exactly the kind of pitcher that gets taken every year in the Rule 5 - velocity reliever. Tapia sits 98-99, can hit 101. Sorry, I don't know how to make a picture of this. But watch it over time, I'll bet it doesn't change much... baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/domingo-tapia-593619?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb
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Post by jbsox on Sept 13, 2020 10:24:43 GMT -5
My take on a final winter roster ... Guys who might be traded can be assumed to be replaced with an equivalent guy filling the same role.
I think you need a RHH 4th outfielder if you plan to contend, someone like Pillar.
I also think you want a LHH 1B as both an occasional platoon partner for Dalbec and a plan B in case he struggles and needs to go down. (If he could also play 2B occasionally -- a not unheard-of combo -- that would be a bonus). So that's a roster spot. If there's no DH in the NL next year, then an interesting guy named Mitch Moreland should be available in trade. MI: I think Peraza will be non-tendered and resigned as the backup MI at less than he'd make in arbitration, and given a chance to share 2B with Chavis. They liked him last winter and this year's sample is unlikely to change that. Or they'll swap him out for a new shinier toy. Or they keep Lin rather than trying to pass him through waivers. But in any case, that's one roster spot.
Arauz is exactly as expected: promising tools, but the skills need work in AAA. And while it would be nice to keep Munoz because of the option, you don't mourn if you try to pass him through waivers and he's claimed. So that's one more spot.
Is there any reason why Pedroia can't be DFA'd, if he acknowledges he can't play again? His salary would still count against the tax limit. I don't see the logic of a CBA rule that would force a team to use a winter roster spot every year on a guy who has suffered a career-ending injury while in the middle of a long-term contract. If they could do that, it would open up a roster spot. And while it's true that they liked Wilson well enough last year to protect him, that was in part because they had tons of room. So that's a second possible opening.
A year has passed without Chatham getting an opportunity to demonstrate that his last 148 PA last year weren't a fluke, which is what needs to be true if he's going to be an MLB backup. But given that Arauz is the guy you might be grooming for that role, maybe you trade him for a lottery ticket, so that's a third possible opening.
Let's count up the position players: C (3): Vazquez, Plawecki, Wong CIF (4): Devers, Dalbec, Acquisition, Potts MIF (4-6): [Pedroia], Bogaerts, Chavis, Peraza or alternative, Arauz, [Chatham] OF (6-7): Benintendi, Martinez, Verdugo, CF Acquisition, 4th OF Acquisition, Rosario, [Wilson]
That's 17 to 20. They'll leave a spot open for the Rule 5, so that's 19 to 22 pitchers. Who are definite? I agree with adding a starter and reliever.
SP (10): Rodriguez, Sale, Eovaldi, Perez, Pivetta, Acquisition; Seabold, Houck, Mata, Groome.
RP: (6) Barnes, Taylor, Valdez, Acquisition; Brasier and Brice at present, although that could change
SW: (2) Hernandez, Weber So that would leave 1 to 4 spots for Aybar and the dozen plates of lasagna that have been hurled against the wall, or this winter's versions of same. * are out of options.
Godley*, Mazza, Brewer, Kickham*, Springs, Stock, Leyer, Triggs, Walden, Covey, Hall, Hart. Obviously you hope a bunch can get through waivers. I think Godley is a keeper, as an ongoing resurrection project who has shown promise (every other appearance, in fact). I like what I've seen of Mazza, Stock, and Leyer. Covey had good results in his brief shot, so I'm not sure why he hasn't gotten another.
Now that the Sox have activated Tapia, there's pretty much no way he'd get through DFA or not being on the 40 man over the winter. Forearm strain for Godley, you can pretty much scratch him off the list. I wonder if will look into selling relatively high on Valdez and Braiser. Valdez has been a little shaky 2 out of his last 4 outings, and I’m not completely sold this is the Braiser we will get going forward. If they did trade them it could open more spots to get more higher upside relievers albeit more expensive but hopefully on short contracts. I also like what I’ve seen of Springs lately.
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Post by unitspin on Sept 13, 2020 11:17:25 GMT -5
I'm against trading any cost controlled relievers. Especially since there is nothing even close to as good in the pipeline. The new wave of rps we have seen have been awful I'll take brasier and valdez over any of those hacks.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 13, 2020 17:42:38 GMT -5
The fact that they didn't call Duran up this year is a signal they're not handing him a starting job going into 2021, imo. Maybe he outplays everyone by a wide margin in camp next year and forces his way on, but they're going to construct a roster that keeps him in Worcester to start the year, no question.
Part of the calculus was service time and part was the 40-man spot this offseason (see above). But if they thought he would be on the opening day roster, my bet is they'd be getting him a look now.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 13, 2020 19:26:19 GMT -5
Now that the Sox have activated Tapia, there's pretty much no way he'd get through DFA or not being on the 40 man over the winter. Forearm strain for Godley, you can pretty much scratch him off the list. I wonder if will look into selling relatively high on Valdez and Braiser. Valdez has been a little shaky 2 out of his last 4 outings, and I’m not completely sold this is the Braiser we will get going forward. If they did trade them it could open more spots to get more higher upside relievers albeit more expensive but hopefully on short contracts. I also like what I’ve seen of Springs lately. Nobody has a good idea about whether the Good Brasier will show up next year, but the Sox far and away have the best idea, since they would have the medicals and know the entire history of tweaks to his mechanics and approach.
This is also true of any reliever. And relief pitching has become a position where each team wants to have six guys who are good.
So it's kind of impossible to "sell high" on a reliever. If you have no financial or roster reason to move a reliever, and you offer him to another team, they'll immediately think, "they know something about him."
If you do know that one of your good relievers projects to struggle next year (e.g., he's getting people out by some change in approach that people will figure out), you sit and hope that someone asks for him, and then you act reluctant to move him!
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 13, 2020 21:42:29 GMT -5
Still too SSS but this is exactly what I saw at summer camp for Domingo Tapia. High strike rate yet non existent strikes down the middle. Put another way, he uses the entire strike zone except the middle or BBs on the Black Box. This is exactly the kind of pitcher that gets taken every year in the Rule 5 - velocity reliever. Tapia sits 98-99, can hit 101. Sorry, I don't know how to make a picture of this. But watch it over time, I'll bet it doesn't change much... baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/domingo-tapia-593619?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlbThanks to Norm, here's the image from Baseballsavant I was looking to post (but I had to make it into a tweet):
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Post by jbsox on Sept 13, 2020 23:17:32 GMT -5
I wonder if will look into selling relatively high on Valdez and Braiser. Valdez has been a little shaky 2 out of his last 4 outings, and I’m not completely sold this is the Braiser we will get going forward. If they did trade them it could open more spots to get more higher upside relievers albeit more expensive but hopefully on short contracts. I also like what I’ve seen of Springs lately. Nobody has a good idea about whether the Good Brasier will show up next year, but the Sox far and away have the best idea, since they would have the medicals and know the entire history of tweaks to his mechanics and approach.
This is also true of any reliever. And relief pitching has become a position where each team wants to have six guys who are good.
So it's kind of impossible to "sell high" on a reliever. If you have no financial or roster reason to move a reliever, and you offer him to another team, they'll immediately think, "they know something about him."
If you do know that one of your good relievers projects to struggle next year (e.g., he's getting people out by some change in approach that people will figure out), you sit and hope that someone asks for him, and then you act reluctant to move him!
Thanks. I understand all of that. I could have worded it better but what I really meant is the Sox taking advantage of the financial landscape with teams losing money and the Sox having reset the tax with John Henry as our owner. Teams will want relief pitching but can’t afford it, but we on the other hand can (as long as it’s short years). So for example selling cost controlled Valdez and/or Braiser for a lottery ticket in a trade to a team desperate of cheap relief pitching, while buying Workman + similar relief pitcher (if we can get them on short years) in the FA market will yes increase our team’s salary in the short run, but will also make me feel a lot more comfortable with the back end of the bullpen with Taylor, Barnes, plus 2 FA acquisitions while simultaneously adding to our farm with a lottery ticket or 2. So maybe not necessarily selling high with someone not having a long track record as much as just taking advantage of the unique financial landscape with the Sox being possibly one of the few teams willing to spend a little this offseason. Maybe something like this wouldn’t happen just thinking outside the box. edit: Workman might not be the best example as he has declined this season, but you could add in someone else you like better. Also I’m hoping it works stretching out D Hernandez, but if not he could be a wild card at the back end of our bullpen as well.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 14, 2020 0:22:52 GMT -5
Arroyo is making things interesting. Below this is some stuff expanded from the game thread that establishes the following very unusual facts.
First, he was a top 100 prospect as a 3B who could handle SS in a pinch (and hence project as a decent 2B, rather like Chavis) with enough offensive upside to be an above-average MLB hitter. According to his last BA Handbook writeup, when he was the #2 prospect in a weak (24th in MLB) Giants system, scouts saw him as a 30 2B, 10 HR guy.
There is zero doubt that beginning last year at Durham, Arroyo became a different and much better hitter. He is the ultimate example of a guy whose improvement is so extreme that it makes the apparent small sample sizes -- 134 PA in AAA followed by 75 so far in MLB -- function as perfectly big ones. (In case anyone still doesn't get this principle, that the sample size means nothing in itself and is only meaningful when combined with the size of the effect, imagine someone who's barely been able to get anyone to go out with them for years, who suddenly starts dating a supermodel. Is you reaction, "OK, something real is going on here!," or is it, "excuse me, one woman / man, small sample size"? However, because of the small sample size, we don't know how much regression to the mean he's due for. And that means he seems very likely to be a guy who would be an asset on an MLB roster, and yet handing him the starting 2B job would seem to be a huge gamble.
And he's out of options. You could write him into the reserve MI role, but that spot is currently Chavis's. You could move Chavis into the RHH 4th OFer role, but his ability to play 1B, 2B, and 3B wouldn't add much and you can almost certainly find a guy who would do the 4th OFer job better at a reasonable price (as they did this year with Pillar). Ideally, that guy can play CF, and RF in Fenway. Chavis has the foot speed to do that but not the experience getting jumps and running routes.
You could keep everyone for depth, and when every position player was healthy, either carry 12 pitchers or option Chavis to work on OF defense. But that role, true utility, good enough for MLB, but has options and can be a great up-and-down guy, looks like Munoz's right now! The safest thing to do would be to fill starting 2B and 4th OFer as planned before both of these guys emerged, and then sort out the surplus in ST. Chavis would be a great fit as a regular at 2B for a small-market ream that wasn't expecting to contend, because he does have first-division starter upside and could use the PT to help become one. If he looks too good to be sent down but needs to be, he should eb easy to trade foe solid value. And of course that could happen this winter, too.
Some context, ages: Munoz, 25.7
Arroyo, 25.3 Dalbec, 25.2
Chavis, 25.1
You guys know by now that I love to calculate the odds of splits being random. So, before 2019 Christian Arroyo had 26 professional home runs in 2006 career PA. He now has 12 in his last 209. The odds of getting that split in a random simulation based on his total career HR rate are ... wait for it .... 400,178 to 1. Continued later today in the 2021 thread, where he (and Munoz) have quickly become complicating factors of the kind you like to have.
This stat is sure leaning heavily on the fact that he had 8 homers in AAA last season. Not sure if I can quite will myself to get excited about that. Before last year his career HR rate was 8 HR / 650 PA. Consistent from year to year, too. Last year in AAA he had 8 HR in 134 PA, a rate of 39 HR / 650 PA. That got him promoted to MLB, where he would naturally be expected to have a lower rate. And that is indeed what has happened: 4 HR in 75 PA, which is a drop-off to 35 HR / 650 PA.
Obviously he'll regress to the mean, but there's no question that he has learned to hit with home run power, when he previously could not.
Starting last year, his K rate went up 43% (.162 to .231), his BB rate went up 49%, and his HR/Contact went up 3,360% (.020 to .085). It seems as if someone gave him a copy of The Science of Hitting. Admittedly, if you break it down by skills instead of results, the random-sim odds against someone having that split in going deeper into counts, and at the same time the observed split in HR/Contact, are only 145,646 to 1.
But all these numbers are skewed by his MLB struggles in his first two call-ups. If you compare his 134 PA breakout at Durham last year to his previous 1797 PA* in the minors, the odds that the depth-in-count and HR/C splits were random are 962,883 to 1. You'd have to simulate his entire minor league career once a day for 1,829 years before it became likelier than not that you'd see splits like those at random. And he's kept it up in MLB! Different hitter. His career by Davenport Peak Translations: Age Lvl PA EqA 18 R 209 .278 19 A-/(A) 392 .260 20 A+ 409 .264 21 AA 517 .250 22 AAA/MLB 237 .271 23 AAA/(MLB) 241 .237 24 AAA/(MLB) 191 .287
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Post by incandenza on Sept 14, 2020 0:47:42 GMT -5
Well, it's intriguing at least. I'd like to know why Cleveland felt they had no use for him, and why the Rays didn't think enough of his AAA homer breakout last season to hold onto him. (Hadn't realized the Rays had gotten him in the Evan Longoria trade. I reckon Bloom's kept his eye on him for a while...)
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 14, 2020 0:53:29 GMT -5
Nobody has a good idea about whether the Good Brasier will show up next year, but the Sox far and away have the best idea, since they would have the medicals and know the entire history of tweaks to his mechanics and approach.
This is also true of any reliever. And relief pitching has become a position where each team wants to have six guys who are good.
So it's kind of impossible to "sell high" on a reliever. If you have no financial or roster reason to move a reliever, and you offer him to another team, they'll immediately think, "they know something about him."
If you do know that one of your good relievers projects to struggle next year (e.g., he's getting people out by some change in approach that people will figure out), you sit and hope that someone asks for him, and then you act reluctant to move him!
Thanks. I understand all of that. I could have worded it better but what I really meant is the Sox taking advantage of the financial landscape with teams losing money and the Sox having reset the tax with John Henry as our owner. Teams will want relief pitching but can’t afford it, but we on the other hand can (as long as it’s short years). So for example selling cost controlled Valdez and/or Braiser for a lottery ticket in a trade to a team desperate of cheap relief pitching, while buying Workman + similar relief pitcher (if we can get them on short years) in the FA market will yes increase our team’s salary in the short run, but will also make me feel a lot more comfortable with the back end of the bullpen with Taylor, Barnes, plus 2 FA acquisitions while simultaneously adding to our farm with a lottery ticket or 2. So maybe not necessarily selling high with someone not having a long track record as much as just taking advantage of the unique financial landscape with the Sox being possibly one of the few teams willing to spend a little this offseason. Maybe something like this wouldn’t happen just thinking outside the box. edit: Workman might not be the best example as he has declined this season, but you could add in someone else you like better. Also I’m hoping it works stretching out D Hernandez, but if not he could be a wild card at the back end of our bullpen as well. Oh, that does make sense. Some cash-starved contender that really needs a 7th/8th inning guy might offer you a solid return for Brasier.
Then, say your plan had been to sign a closer; Barnes, Brasier, and Darwinzon were going to handle the 7th and 8th; and you were going to sign two reliable 6th-inning types to push Valdez into the last spot in the pen along with Taylor (who's been hurt and terrible) and some other candidates. (That's what I'd do!) You should be able to replace Brasier with a FA that's as good or even better, so you are essentially buying the prospect. This only works because you were only shopping for one late-inning addition. Even in a weak market, you're unlikely to land three of those guys.
Of course, this is all in theory! I haven't looked at the FA relievers yet. But it's a very good example of how the strange market conditions might play to our advantage. The fact that every team wants 4 guys who can pitch in high-leverage from the 7th on works in your favor here, if there are multiple teams that need one but would rather not pay a FA price.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 14, 2020 1:20:06 GMT -5
A couple of random thoughts...
With the current mix (who know what it will end up being), the potential Rule 5 pick seems more likely to be a reliever than a position player although, a RHH outfielder might also work.
Munoz somewhat mitigates the need for a RHH 4th outfielder like Pillar.
With the current mix, Ockimey seems like a better fit than Chavis. Both have options and Ockimey has seen some practice time in corner outfield.
Duran is a likely callup after April 16th.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 14, 2020 1:32:52 GMT -5
(Sorry, won't quote the above for some reason!)
I hadn't looked at what the Davenport Translations say about Ockimey. .271 (R) .265 (A-) .286 (A) .270 (A+, some AA) .279 (AA, some AAA) .278 (AAA) That's definitely a guy who can hit MLB RHP next year. Of course, he's still apparently subpar defensively, and can't hit lefties at all.
He may project to hit RHP better than Chavis, but Chavis has little platoon split, and can play a decent 2B. There's no way Ockimey is a better bench piece.
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