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Post by manfred on Sept 8, 2020 12:57:32 GMT -5
There is some decent pitching options on the market this off season that could take one year prove it deals that the red sox could take a swing with. The lineup with jd coming back is good enough for a run at the ship. Whos to say bloom cant patch up the bullpen and rotation and catch lightning in a bottle. I doubt teams are going to be handing out big deals to pitchers in this market. Who? I see this as a bad, bad FA pitching class. |
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Post by vermontsox1 on Sept 8, 2020 13:06:11 GMT -5
FYI - I moved a lot of the discussion in the trade deadline thread re: 2021 roster building to this thread.
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Post by manfred on Sept 8, 2020 13:06:43 GMT -5
I dan’t read this article, but I wonder how much these losses are accounting tricks. I an asking from a position of ignorance, but doesn’t a sizable share of revenue come from tv? And isn’t that a fixed contract? |
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 8, 2020 13:40:26 GMT -5
Good to see that this now has its own thread.
I'm of the opinion that this winter will be crazy, and that no one knows what will happen. But as already noted, the team seem to be in an especially good position.
The Sox' year to get under the tax limit in the current 3 year cycle happens a year before the MFY's and, IIRC, a number of other big-pocket franchises. I thought that worked to our advantage before, and it could again this year.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 8, 2020 13:45:48 GMT -5
There is some decent pitching options on the market this off season that could take one year prove it deals that the red sox could take a swing with. The lineup with jd coming back is good enough for a run at the ship. Whos to say bloom cant patch up the bullpen and rotation and catch lightning in a bottle. I doubt teams are going to be handing out big deals to pitchers in this market. Who? I see this as a bad, bad FA pitching class. The list includes: Corey Kluber (club option), Trevor Bauer, Robbie Ray, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, Jake Arrieta (club option), Marcus Stroman, Jose Quintana Which indeed is not great, but the Red Sox aren't gonna sign "the free agent class"; they just need to sign one guy, really, to be a #3 starter or so. I think Stroman, Quintana, Paxton, or Tanaka could fit the bill. That would make the rotation viable until Sale returned, and pretty good after he does. If the market is weird maybe they could even sign two of them on short deals. |
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Post by manfred on Sept 8, 2020 14:08:49 GMT -5
Who? I see this as a bad, bad FA pitching class. The list includes: Corey Kluber (club option), Trevor Bauer, Robbie Ray, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, Jake Arrieta (club option), Marcus Stroman, Jose Quintana Which indeed is not great, but the Red Sox aren't gonna sign "the free agent class"; they just need to sign one guy, really, to be a #3 starter or so. I think Stroman, Quintana, Paxton, or Tanaka could fit the bill. That would make the rotation viable until Sale returned, and pretty good after he does. If the market is weird maybe they could even sign two of them on short deals. On the one hand, I son’t care what they do for one year. I don’t think they can win it all next year, but if they sign a pitcher or two to one year contracts, whatever. But that is a bad list. Arrieta is pretty finished. Paxton can’t stay healthy. Quintana has not been above 2.0 bWar since 2016... and on. Bauer is the only guy on that list I have faith would slot solidly in. I hate him, though, so it is hard for me to hope for that. But, again... I don’t care for one year. |
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Post by incandenza on Sept 8, 2020 14:29:45 GMT -5
The list includes: Corey Kluber (club option), Trevor Bauer, Robbie Ray, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, Jake Arrieta (club option), Marcus Stroman, Jose Quintana Which indeed is not great, but the Red Sox aren't gonna sign "the free agent class"; they just need to sign one guy, really, to be a #3 starter or so. I think Stroman, Quintana, Paxton, or Tanaka could fit the bill. That would make the rotation viable until Sale returned, and pretty good after he does. If the market is weird maybe they could even sign two of them on short deals. On the one hand, I son’t care what they do for one year. I don’t think they can win it all next year, but if they sign a pitcher or two to one year contracts, whatever. But that is a bad list. Arrieta is pretty finished. Paxton can’t stay healthy. Quintana has not been above 2.0 bWar since 2016... and on. Bauer is the only guy on that list I have faith would slot solidly in. I hate him, though, so it is hard for me to hope for that. But, again... I don’t care for one year. What would you do in 2022? That class has a lot of big names at the top (Verlander, Kershaw, Scherzer, Greinke, Kluber) but they're all gonna be at least 36, except Kershaw who'll be 34, and I don't know how much you want to trust him to stay healthy. After that it doesn't really look so great, and the list is likely to shrink between now and then due to guys signing extensions. |
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Post by unitspin on Sept 8, 2020 14:37:30 GMT -5
For SP if you take a flier on a guy like leake, stroman or baeur on a one year deal I think those are decent options. RP has alot more options of guys that can be had in this market like David Robertson, Kirby yates, workman, giles. Think that classifies as a decent market for pitcher not good or great, "decent". Who are the team's contending next year if the red sox do not have a shot?
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Post by manfred on Sept 8, 2020 14:52:48 GMT -5
On the one hand, I son’t care what they do for one year. I don’t think they can win it all next year, but if they sign a pitcher or two to one year contracts, whatever. But that is a bad list. Arrieta is pretty finished. Paxton can’t stay healthy. Quintana has not been above 2.0 bWar since 2016... and on. Bauer is the only guy on that list I have faith would slot solidly in. I hate him, though, so it is hard for me to hope for that. But, again... I don’t care for one year. What would you do in 2022? That class has a lot of big names at the top (Verlander, Kershaw, Scherzer, Greinke, Kluber) but they're all gonna be at least 36, except Kershaw who'll be 34, and I don't know how much you want to trust him to stay healthy. After that it doesn't really look so great, and the list is likely to shrink between now and then due to guys signing extensions. Personally, with a lot of time before then for health and age to change this view, I’d be working on getting my 2022 lineup set in stone next year, and then I’d sign Scherzer and Greinke or Verlander to big 2-year contracts if possible. I’d be all in for 2022/2023. Sale and Eovaldi have serious risk, so if I could be all in with Sale, Scherzer, x, ERod, and Eovaldi with some of the prospects in the wings? I’d be happy. Hell, maybe by then you only need Scherzer, and could do Sale, Scherzer, ERod, Groome, and Eovaldi. Or something. |
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Post by incandenza on Sept 8, 2020 15:10:18 GMT -5
What would you do in 2022? That class has a lot of big names at the top (Verlander, Kershaw, Scherzer, Greinke, Kluber) but they're all gonna be at least 36, except Kershaw who'll be 34, and I don't know how much you want to trust him to stay healthy. After that it doesn't really look so great, and the list is likely to shrink between now and then due to guys signing extensions. Personally, with a lot of time before then for health and age to change this view, I’d be working on getting my 2022 lineup set in stone next year, and then I’d sign Scherzer and Greinke or Verlander to big 2-year contracts if possible. I’d be all in for 2022/2023. Sale and Eovaldi have serious risk, so if I could be all in with Sale, Scherzer, x, ERod, and Eovaldi with some of the prospects in the wings? I’d be happy. Hell, maybe by then you only need Scherzer, and could do Sale, Scherzer, ERod, Groome, and Eovaldi. Or something. Well, it's not a terrible idea. But if you're Scherzer or Greinke don't you hold out for a 4-year deal or something? I mean, maybe they'd do 2/80 or something, but would you want to pay that? The point being that in that age range it's hard for it to not be a pretty big risk of a whole lot of money going down the toilet. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 8, 2020 15:18:39 GMT -5
I am confident that Eduardo Rodriguez, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, and Alex Verdugo will be on the team next year, and they'll eventually be joined by Sale. Throw JD Martinez in the 90% sure category.
Beyond that, I think anything is on the table. We don't even know who two PTBNLs are coming to the Red Sox, and the PTBNL going to Philly could be Yoan Aybar, who isn't on the 60-man and couldn't be traded, and whether they'll need to be on the 40-man. They legit might turn over at least 1/3 of the 40-man by the end of the calendar year.
-----
Separate point: Other than the fact that it's sort of kind of a sign of disrespect, which isn't nothing, is there a reason not to waive Pedroia at this point? I guess there's also hoping that he retires first to get the CBT relief, but I don't see why he'd do that, nor should he. I think there needs to be a very frank conversation with him before the end of the World Series, because they legit might need his 40-man spot this offseason and if he's not coming back, they'd be smart to remove him from the roster and just accept his contract as dead money.
I'm hoping not to start the same tired conversation we've had before about whether he should retire, but I've just kind of assumed he'd be on the 40-man and I'm realizing that's kind of silly if he's indeed done, and frankly, we might be past the point where it matters.
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Post by manfred on Sept 8, 2020 15:22:37 GMT -5
I am confident that Eduardo Rodriguez, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, and Alex Verdugo will be on the team next year, and they'll eventually be joined by Sale. Throw JD Martinez in the 90% sure category. Beyond that, I think anything is on the table. We don't even know who three PTBNLs are coming to the Red Sox (I keep forgetting there was one in the Phillies trade in addition to the Colorado and Chicago PTBNLs) and whether they'll need to be on the 40-man. They legit might turn over at least 1/3 of the 40-man by the end of the calendar year. ----- Separate point: Other than the fact that it's sort of kind of a sign of disrespect, which isn't nothing, is there a reason not to waive Pedroia at this point? I guess there's also hoping that he retires first to get the CBT relief, but I don't see why he'd do that, nor should he. I think there needs to be a very frank conversation with him before the end of the World Series, because they legit might need his 40-man spot this offseason and if he's not coming back, they'd be smart to remove him from the roster and just accept his contract as dead money. I'm hoping not to start the same tired conversation we've had before about whether he should retire, but I've just kind of assumed he'd be on the 40-man and I'm realizing that's kind of silly if he's indeed done, and frankly, we might be past the point where it matters. I am a big respect guy, but they have “respectfully” carried him for a long time. He is obviously finished. There comes a point when they don’t have to enable delusion. If they go to him and warn him it is coming, they have done their duty. He can retire with a flourish or keep dreaming he’ll play again. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 8, 2020 15:22:42 GMT -5
I thought we were sending the Phillies a PTBNL or cash?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 8, 2020 15:24:21 GMT -5
I thought we were sending the Phillies a PTBNL or cash? Fixed. Thanks. Still matters because there's a chance it's Yoan Aybar, which would free a 40-man slot. |
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Post by manfred on Sept 8, 2020 15:25:43 GMT -5
Personally, with a lot of time before then for health and age to change this view, I’d be working on getting my 2022 lineup set in stone next year, and then I’d sign Scherzer and Greinke or Verlander to big 2-year contracts if possible. I’d be all in for 2022/2023. Sale and Eovaldi have serious risk, so if I could be all in with Sale, Scherzer, x, ERod, and Eovaldi with some of the prospects in the wings? I’d be happy. Hell, maybe by then you only need Scherzer, and could do Sale, Scherzer, ERod, Groome, and Eovaldi. Or something. Well, it's not a terrible idea. But if you're Scherzer or Greinke don't you hold out for a 4-year deal or something? I mean, maybe they'd do 2/80 or something, but would you want to pay that? The point being that in that age range it's hard for it to not be a pretty big risk of a whole lot of money going down the toilet. All true, so this is speculation. And with their age, again, we are talking about a very fluid situation. They could be done with a pitch. But if Scherzer carries on with his stuff, I’d consider 3 years. Especially if I only need one (Groome or Mata is ready; a cheaper Perez-type is available etc). But yeah, I’m not psyched about a pitcher getting a contract nearly his mid-40s. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 8, 2020 15:36:36 GMT -5
Do we offer ERod an extension? If you have him in the 2022 rotation what are you paying him?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 9, 2020 13:33:15 GMT -5
Is there is a good 2B with 1 or 2 years left before free agency, who would be available for the right combination of reasons? Either his replacement is on hand, or his team is not a projected 2021 contender, and/or his team will be looking to shed salary. That's your bridge to Downs, and it puts Chavis into the 10th player role. Much deeper roster.
I'm going to gather the candidates now and then take a deeper look (including getting accurate WAR figures using Statcast defense instead of UZR and DRS) at some later point.
Well, Ketel Marte is an obvious one, and would double as your 4th OFer and your backup SS. He was 7.1 fWAR last year and is the equivalent of 1.5 this year (projecting to the same # of PA). He has two years left on his contract at $6M and $8M, then options for $10M ($1M buyout) and $12M. You'd be buying low both on him and because of the weak market, and if he returns to form you can deal him for probably more talent than you give up. The Snakes know all that and will ask for a lot, and if his age 25 season was a fluke, it's not a win. They have no replacement on hand.
This is the obvious bold move. Is there a safe one?
Kolten Wong has a $5.1M option that the Cardinals will pick up. He was 3.7 fWAR last year and is a 3.5 equivalent this year. Not sure why they'd deal him, though.
The contract Whit Merrifeld signed with KC after his out-of-nowhere age 29 season is not looking particularly good, and the Royals are terrible. He has 2 years left at a total of $10.25 including an option buyout. Before and after that year he looks like a consistent 2.5 WAR / 650 sort of guy, so this is interesting but not exciting. He'd cost nothing, I think.
I know I have to mention Robinson Cano.
Joey Wendle is weirdly similar to Merrifield, with a fluke season at age 28 in 2018. He'll be arb-eligible for the first time and could be non-tendered by the Rays. Worth looking at.
The Pirates' Adam Frazier had a fluke good season in 2018 at age 26. What was in the Gatorade that year, and why would they have a special flavor just for second basemen? Not worth a look, I think.
I'll also take a look at the FA Jonathans, Schoop and Villar.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 9, 2020 14:18:24 GMT -5
Of those, I'd be partial to Merrifield. I know the Royals tried to move him at the deadline and couldn't find a taker. Peraza and $$ should do it,(or Chavis straight up), instant upgrade.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 9, 2020 14:48:01 GMT -5
I'm not so sure that being able to go over the tax limit means they will go over, this year at least. The free agents are old or aren't very good and the two best aren't exactly the kind of personalities teams look to spend money on.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 9, 2020 15:11:05 GMT -5
Of those, I'd be partial to Merrif ield. I know the Royals tried to move him at the deadline and couldn't find a taker. Peraza and $$ should do it,(or Chavis straight up), instant upgrade. I would trade Chavis straight up for Merrifield without flinching. By the same token, I doubt KC would go for it. Maybe Chavis + $$ + a prospect in the 20-30 range? But if it's true that they tried to trade him and couldn't find a taker I don't know why that would be. He's cheap and an above-average player even if you discount his 2018 season as a fluke. ADD: Actually, I need someone to explain this to me. eric and phils both say he'd cost basically nothing. But he's a 2.5 WAR player who's only being paid $5 million a year. Essentially 3 years of control. How is that not great value? What am I missing? |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 9, 2020 15:52:21 GMT -5
Of those, I'd be partial to Merrif ield. I know the Royals tried to move him at the deadline and couldn't find a taker. Peraza and $$ should do it,(or Chavis straight up), instant upgrade. I would trade Chavis straight up for Merrifield without flinching. By the same token, I doubt KC would go for it. Maybe Chavis + $$ + a prospect in the 20-30 range? But if it's true that they tried to trade him and couldn't find a taker I don't know why that would be. He's cheap and an above-average player even if you discount his 2018 season as a fluke. ADD: Actually, I need someone to explain this to me. eric and phils both say he'd cost basically nothing. But he's a 2.5 WAR player who's only being paid $5 million a year. Essentially 3 years of control. How is that not great value? What am I missing? You are missing the fact that there are several millionaires losing millions. Merrifield is worth the money to a team that has money but this year those are few and far between. He's good but you are still talking $5 million dollars. This year is looking like it is going to be far different than any we have seen. ADD: Think of it this way. Every team in baseball is going to lose $100m plus this year. How do you think John Henry feels about losing 100m compared to how Derek Jeter feels. |
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Post by soxin8 on Sept 9, 2020 16:01:42 GMT -5
I think with the draft position the Sox will have next year, I wonder if they will be in the market for anyone who receives a QO. I think I would prefer they not surrender a high second rounder. Maybe we could have a list of preferred players without compensation attached to them? Taijuan Walker seems to be making the comeback some here suggested he might. Ozuna looked impressive. Has he been tagged with a QO yet?
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Post by incandenza on Sept 9, 2020 16:04:27 GMT -5
I would trade Chavis straight up for Merrifield without flinching. By the same token, I doubt KC would go for it. Maybe Chavis + $$ + a prospect in the 20-30 range? But if it's true that they tried to trade him and couldn't find a taker I don't know why that would be. He's cheap and an above-average player even if you discount his 2018 season as a fluke. ADD: Actually, I need someone to explain this to me. eric and phils both say he'd cost basically nothing. But he's a 2.5 WAR player who's only being paid $5 million a year. Essentially 3 years of control. How is that not great value? What am I missing? You are missing the fact that there are several millionaires losing millions. Merrifield is worth the money to a team that has money but this year those are few and far between. He's good but you are still talking $5 million dollars. This year is looking like it is going to be far different than any we have seen. ADD: Think of it this way. Every team in baseball is going to lose $100m plus this year. How do you think John Henry feels about losing 100m compared to how Derek Jeter feels. This would be great if you're right! This deal specifically would be an excellent opportunity to use the situation to the Sox' advantage. Still seems a bit speculative to me - I just don't know how much we really know about the calculations team owners will be making. And that would include the Sox' owners; I'm sure John Henry isn't thrilled about losing $100 million... But in pure value terms, picking up Merrifield for a song seems like a no-brainer, for the reasons that eric mentioned him on his list in the first place. |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 9, 2020 16:06:55 GMT -5
I would trade Chavis straight up for Merrifield without flinching. By the same token, I doubt KC would go for it. Maybe Chavis + $$ + a prospect in the 20-30 range? But if it's true that they tried to trade him and couldn't find a taker I don't know why that would be. He's cheap and an above-average player even if you discount his 2018 season as a fluke. ADD: Actually, I need someone to explain this to me. eric and phils both say he'd cost basically nothing. But he's a 2.5 WAR player who's only being paid $5 million a year. Essentially 3 years of control. How is that not great value? What am I missing? You are missing the fact that there are several millionaires losing millions. Merrifield is worth the money to a team that has money but this year those are few and far between. He's good but you are still talking $5 million dollars. This year is looking like it is going to be far different than any we have seen. ADD: Think of it this way. Every team in baseball is going to lose $100m plus this year. How do you think John Henry feels about losing 100m compared to how Derek Jeter feels.I was waiting for somebody to make this point. Yes, the Sox will spend some money, but the thought that Henry is going to open the vault is misguided I think. The Red Sox aren't getting fans in the seats any more than any other teams. And at this point, I'd say a select few are watching Red Sox games on NESN. I guess I just don't see the Red Sox suddenly becoming the Yawkey Red Sox who bought up the guys Connie Mack couldn't afford in the mid 30s or bought (traded) for the guys the Browns didn't want to pay in the late 40s. If eventually fans come back and the Red Sox start to play better next season as Bloom tinkers, then yeah, I can see the Red Sox really spending money under normal circumstances come 2022, especially if they start becoming more competitive. While I can see them spending some money this winter, I just don't think they're going to spend a heckuva lot this offseason. What will be interesting is how players react when the money is not being doled out this offseason and all they receive is lowball offers. Can't wait for the first Boras quote. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 9, 2020 16:09:15 GMT -5
You are missing the fact that there are several millionaires losing millions. Merrifield is worth the money to a team that has money but this year those are few and far between. He's good but you are still talking $5 million dollars. This year is looking like it is going to be far different than any we have seen. ADD: Think of it this way. Every team in baseball is going to lose $100m plus this year. How do you think John Henry feels about losing 100m compared to how Derek Jeter feels. This would be great if you're right! This deal specifically would be an excellent opportunity to use the situation to the Sox' advantage. Still seems a bit speculative to me - I just don't know how much we really know about the calculations team owners will be making. And that would include the Sox' owners; I'm sure John Henry isn't thrilled about losing $100 million... But in pure value terms, picking up Merrifield for a song seems like a no-brainer, for the reasons that eric mentioned him on his list in the first place. LOL, John Henry is a commodities broker. Last year was time to short the market, this year time to long the market. If unit is correct that the Yankees will have to reset this coming year, they are pretty much screwed. |
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