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Patriots 2020 season thread
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 9, 2020 23:12:29 GMT -5
You feel terrible because they won and terrible because you feel terrible that you wanted them to lose |
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Post by texs31 on Nov 9, 2020 23:15:05 GMT -5
Actually, it's not even about tanking or anything like that.
More that sure they won. It was at the last minute. But the Jets??
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 10, 2020 8:29:27 GMT -5
I don’t want them to tank because I don’t like creating a losing mentality in football, but I’m ok with them losing a lot of games this year as long as they are playing hard like they did last night.
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Post by costpet on Nov 10, 2020 8:54:29 GMT -5
What this game showed is that we’re not much better than the Jets. Riches to rags in only a year. Feels like crap, but I guess that’s what the rest of the league felt like the last 20 years.
I would feel better if I knew we would get a great draft pick. But BB isn’t very good at drafting (see Harry et. all). But he’s great at trading down. Whoppe
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 3,045
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Post by mobaz on Nov 10, 2020 9:26:09 GMT -5
From Dane Brugler Top 50 ($): 1. Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson (6-5, 220)* 2. Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State (6-3, 218)* 6. Zach Wilson, QB, BYU (6-2, 212)* 11. Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State (6-3, 225)* 50. Mac Jones, QB, Alabama (6-2, 215)* |
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Post by texs31 on Nov 10, 2020 9:30:14 GMT -5
Some thoughts on the Belichek isn't good at drafting narrative:
- We always talk about the Patriots failures but rarely provide the context of the failures the other teams have.
- We always talk about the misses, but never the hits (Onwenu in the 6th?)
- If a player is drafted right around where virtually ALL the experts ranked/mocked him, is that a failure in drafting or a failure by those involved in the next steps (coaching and/or the player themselves)
- When we discuss all the rookies who put up great numbers compared to the Patriots picks, how many of get more information beyond the statistics/awards? Do we watch the tape and see all the mistakes they are making? This missed assignments, etc? Is it possible that the problem with BB's drafting is that he has ZERO tolerance for errors and doesn't give the players a chance to fail.
- Even outside of drafting Brady in the 6th, the Patriots dynasty was built with draft picks (especially on D and the Offensive Line) so it's hard to say he's bad at drafting.
- One thing that APPEARS to translate from his draft history is that he seems to try and mitigate complete failure. When you look at the scouting reports of the guys he's picked, very often they have fewer question marks even if they aren't as highly skilled (taking guys who contribute on all downs, skill players with a history of solid ball protection, etc) relative to others projected in that range. When you are competing for SBs every year, that seems a solid strategy. May not get you All Pro's but you're not wasting a Brady performance with a drastic error by your top pick.
EDIT - we also always forget that UDFAs are part of the drafting process (evaluating prospects and determining when you can get them). Pretty successful there.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 10, 2020 9:39:30 GMT -5
Meyers had himself a game! From the moment Harry went down, Meyers and Newton have been money. Makes you wonder why we didn't see more of him before that injury.
I watched a couple Jets games scouting Darnold and that's not the same Jets team. The games I watched Perriman, Mims and Crowder were all out injured. Berrios was their best receiver and it was a joke how bad the weapons were. I find it funny they make a change at QB when they finally get healthy at WR. Would have loved seeing Darnold with some actual NFL WRs. That's the most talent at WR since they drafted Darnold.
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 3,045
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Post by mobaz on Nov 10, 2020 10:00:58 GMT -5
From Dane Brugler Top 50 ($): 1. Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson (6-5, 220)* 2. Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State (6-3, 218)* 6. Zach Wilson, QB, BYU (6-2, 212)* 11. Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State (6-3, 225)* 50. Mac Jones, QB, Alabama (6-2, 215)* ADD in the comments on Kyle Trask: "I do really like Trask - he was my QB4 and top SR QB in my summer preview. But I grade him as a day 2 pick. Love his timing and touch as a passer, but the below average mobility is an issue. He doesn't have the foot quickness to easily avoid pressure, which becomes more of a problem vs. NFL speed." |
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 3,045
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Post by mobaz on Nov 10, 2020 10:30:53 GMT -5
Some thoughts on the Belichek isn't good at drafting narrative: - We always talk about the Patriots failures but rarely provide the context of the failures the other teams have. - We always talk about the misses, but never the hits (Onwenu in the 6th?) - If a player is drafted right around where virtually ALL the experts ranked/mocked him, is that a failure in drafting or a failure by those involved in the next steps (coaching and/or the player themselves) - When we discuss all the rookies who put up great numbers compared to the Patriots picks, how many of get more information beyond the statistics/awards? Do we watch the tape and see all the mistakes they are making? This missed assignments, etc? Is it possible that the problem with BB's drafting is that he has ZERO tolerance for errors and doesn't give the players a chance to fail. - Even outside of drafting Brady in the 6th, the Patriots dynasty was built with draft picks (especially on D and the Offensive Line) so it's hard to say he's bad at drafting. - One thing that APPEARS to translate from his draft history is that he seems to try and mitigate complete failure. When you look at the scouting reports of the guys he's picked, very often they have fewer question marks even if they aren't as highly skilled (taking guys who contribute on all downs, skill players with a history of solid ball protection, etc) relative to others projected in that range. When you are competing for SBs every year, that seems a solid strategy. May not get you All Pro's but you're not wasting a Brady performance with a drastic error by your top pick. EDIT - we also always forget that UDFAs are part of the drafting process (evaluating prospects and determining when you can get them). Pretty successful there. I think my problem with recent drafting (particularly Round 1-2) is that the "safe" picks didn't turn out that safely, and the high risk picks haven't panned out at all (with likely Wynn as an exception going forward). For years, Bill avoided offensive skill at the top, and when he invested in Sony Michel and N'Keal Harry, their flaws (poor health and lack of burst) have overcome their strengths (size and toughness). Malcolm Brown was fine but anonymous and not worthy of a 5th year option. Dominique Easley was a stretch at the time and HUGE failure. JoJuan Williams, Duke Dawson, and Cyrus Jones were no-impact 2nd round secondary picks, and Jordan Richards. In Rounds 3-5 and UDFA, his track record is stellar, but two meaningful starters (Wynn and Brown) out of twelve Rd 1-2 picks since 2014 is a problem (duggar and Uche are pending, but little S1 impact). Bill has definitely set up the OL and secondary well with low draft investment, but hitting on a WR and a meaningful player or two in the front 7 would have made the current team far more competitive. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 10, 2020 11:12:36 GMT -5
You have to count Michel as a good pick, you likely don't win a championship without him. Let's also not forget Garopolo was one of those 2nd round picks. A guy like Williams has hardly played because we have the deepest CB talent in the league.
Take out the recent guys, you have eight picks and four busts Dawson, Jones, Richards and Easley. That's not bad, it's not great either. Yet that's likely above average. No team nails tons of picks over two decades. It always goes in stretches. I'd also point out Bill traded down in a ton of drafts, which helps give him more picks in 3-7 to hit on.
The one thing Bill does need to do is actually take WRs high. Who knows if Harry can become okay in time. Yet a true deep threat will help open up things for him. He didn't look horrible before Cam got Covid and I'm very interested in how he does now that Cam is back to being the guy we saw early in the season. Meyers is helping open up the middle, yet Edelman and Harry are out
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 10, 2020 11:37:43 GMT -5
Meyers had himself a game! From the moment Harry went down, Meyers and Newton have been money. Makes you wonder why we didn't see more of him before that injury. I watched a couple Jets games scouting Darnold and that's not the same Jets team. The games I watched Perriman, Mims and Crowder were all out injured. Berrios was their best receiver and it was a joke how bad the weapons were. I find it funny they make a change at QB when they finally get healthy at WR. Would have loved seeing Darnold with some actual NFL WRs. That's the most talent at WR since they drafted Darnold. Darnold missed the game due to injury |
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 10, 2020 11:40:53 GMT -5
You have to count Michel as a good pick, you likely don't win a championship without him. Let's also not forget Garopolo was one of those 2nd round picks. A guy like Williams has hardly played because we have the deepest CB talent in the league. Take out the recent guys, you have eight picks and four busts Dawson, Jones, Richards and Easley. That's not bad, it's not great either. Yet that's likely above average. No team nails tons of picks over two decades. It always goes in stretches. I'd also point out Bill traded down in a ton of drafts, which helps give him more picks in 3-7 to hit on. The one thing Bill does need to do is actually take WRs high. Who knows if Harry can become okay in time. Yet a true deep threat will help open up things for him. He didn't look horrible before Cam got Covid and I'm very interested in how he does now that Cam is back to being the guy we saw early in the season. Meyers is helping open up the middle, yet Edelman and Harry are out Saying they don’t win a title without Sony is a massive stretch. He’s a product of game plan and great blocking. He gets what’s there - that’s about it. Which means he’s very replaceable. |
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Post by texs31 on Nov 10, 2020 11:48:22 GMT -5
Just to be clear, when I'm saying "safe" I'm not thinking in terms of the low floor/high ceiling conversation. Instead, I'm thinking "safer positions" (not specialists who can only contribute on early OR late downs); skill guys that don't have "turnover concerns" in their report, etc.
Might get you to the same place but I wanted to make that distinction in this context.
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Post by costpet on Nov 10, 2020 12:43:58 GMT -5
Wherever we pick next year, he’d better have one good pick...at QB.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 10, 2020 13:32:19 GMT -5
You have to count Michel as a good pick, you likely don't win a championship without him. Let's also not forget Garopolo was one of those 2nd round picks. A guy like Williams has hardly played because we have the deepest CB talent in the league. Take out the recent guys, you have eight picks and four busts Dawson, Jones, Richards and Easley. That's not bad, it's not great either. Yet that's likely above average. No team nails tons of picks over two decades. It always goes in stretches. I'd also point out Bill traded down in a ton of drafts, which helps give him more picks in 3-7 to hit on. The one thing Bill does need to do is actually take WRs high. Who knows if Harry can become okay in time. Yet a true deep threat will help open up things for him. He didn't look horrible before Cam got Covid and I'm very interested in how he does now that Cam is back to being the guy we saw early in the season. Meyers is helping open up the middle, yet Edelman and Harry are out Saying they don’t win a title without Sony is a massive stretch. He’s a product of game plan and great blocking. He gets what’s there - that’s about it. Which means he’s very replaceable. When Michel is healthy, which isn't often he's a crazy good RB. Heck he's one of the better ones in the NFL. He was crazy good during the playoffs, when Brady wasn't that good. Three games 336 yards, 112 yards a game, 4.7 yards per attempt and six TDs. Compare that to last year when he still had a good OL, yet wasn't very good because he wasn't healthy. So I don't buy the narrative it was game plan and blocking. Like any RB could do what he did in those three games. That makes zero sense. You act like we have RBs do that all the time and that's just not true. Even Corey Dillon in 2004 with his great season didn't have a post season like that. |
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Post by texs31 on Nov 10, 2020 13:34:55 GMT -5
Wherever we pick next year, he’d better have one good pick...at QB. Hope that QB can stop the run bc THAT is what is killing them this year. |
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 3,045
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Post by mobaz on Nov 10, 2020 13:49:25 GMT -5
You have to count Michel as a good pick, you likely don't win a championship without him. Let's also not forget Garopolo was one of those 2nd round picks. A guy like Williams has hardly played because we have the deepest CB talent in the league. Michel had knee problems that have followed him into the pros. And he's basically in the LeGarrette Blount role, which can usually be replaced in free agency for 1-2M. He has no passing game participation or threat. Whether they were good or not, Garoppolo and Williams have contributed minimally on game day, which is a bust for a 2nd round pick. I'll give Jimmy G a bit of a pass. |
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Post by texs31 on Nov 10, 2020 14:13:21 GMT -5
But is a bust always a failure by the guy making the picks? What if the narrative should be "Bill isn't great at developing young talent"?
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 10, 2020 14:29:36 GMT -5
Saying they don’t win a title without Sony is a massive stretch. He’s a product of game plan and great blocking. He gets what’s there - that’s about it. Which means he’s very replaceable. When Michel is healthy, which isn't often he's a crazy good RB. Heck he's one of the better ones in the NFL. He was crazy good during the playoffs, when Brady wasn't that good. Three games 336 yards, 112 yards a game, 4.7 yards per attempt and six TDs. Compare that to last year when he still had a good OL, yet wasn't very good because he wasn't healthy. So I don't buy the narrative it was game plan and blocking. Like any RB could do what he did in those three games. That makes zero sense. You act like we have RBs do that all the time and that's just not true. Even Corey Dillon in 2004 with his great season didn't have a post season like that. He’s a solid back, he’s no where near one of the best in the league. Sony’s biggest problem is he doesn’t have burst thus he lacks big play ability. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 10, 2020 14:32:52 GMT -5
You have to count Michel as a good pick, you likely don't win a championship without him. Let's also not forget Garopolo was one of those 2nd round picks. A guy like Williams has hardly played because we have the deepest CB talent in the league. Michel had knee problems that have followed him into the pros. And he's basically in the LeGarrette Blount role, which can usually be replaced in free agency for 1-2M. He has no passing game participation or threat. Whether they were good or not, Garoppolo and Williams have contributed minimally on game day, which is a bust for a 2nd round pick. I'll give Jimmy G a bit of a pass. ,43%20overall). We traded Dawson and a 7th for the pick that turned into Herron. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 10, 2020 14:39:29 GMT -5
When Michel is healthy, which isn't often he's a crazy good RB. Heck he's one of the better ones in the NFL. He was crazy good during the playoffs, when Brady wasn't that good. Three games 336 yards, 112 yards a game, 4.7 yards per attempt and six TDs. Compare that to last year when he still had a good OL, yet wasn't very good because he wasn't healthy. So I don't buy the narrative it was game plan and blocking. Like any RB could do what he did in those three games. That makes zero sense. You act like we have RBs do that all the time and that's just not true. Even Corey Dillon in 2004 with his great season didn't have a post season like that. He’s a solid back, he’s no where near one of the best in the league. Sony’s biggest problem is he doesn’t have burst thus he lacks big play ability. When healthy he's a darn good RB, he's just always banged up. When he's good he makes people miss and rips off big runs. When he's not 100% he looks like crap. My point is I don't think we've had a RB do more over three playoff games on the way to a Championship than he did. Long-term it's likely not great value, yet I wouldn't change anything given what he did during those playoffs. You can't just say any old RB could have done what he did. The problem is you don't see that guy much, like we've seen him once over the last two years. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 10, 2020 18:22:39 GMT -5
From Dane Brugler Top 50 ($): 1. Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson (6-5, 220)* 2. Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State (6-3, 218)* 6. Zach Wilson, QB, BYU (6-2, 212)* 11. Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State (6-3, 225)* 50. Mac Jones, QB, Alabama (6-2, 215)* I’m really likely Zach Wilson, but I think he’s going to rise too far up boards. Trey Lance though is someone we could get lucky with his lack or playing this year so he goes lower letting the Pats grab him. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 10, 2020 20:53:14 GMT -5
Only two RBs have 2,000 yards from that draft, Michel and Chubb. Sure you want Chubb, yet talk about holding them to a crazy high standard. It's a bad pick because they passed on one guy. Taking the second best RB isn't good enough, we demand you be perfect. It's certainly not like Harry where like eight guys have done better.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 11, 2020 7:00:48 GMT -5
Drafting a RB in the first round is a questionable move to begin with as there is value to be had later. Sony basically got a 4 year 10m (9.6m) deal. That’s ok, but you lose a lot of the rookie value on the deal because running backs are found cheaper than most positions. Moving off Sony, the running backs taken higher are usually even worse picks.
Check out the first round backs:
2010: CJ Spiller (no)
2011: Mark Ingram (no)
2012: Trent Richardson (no)
2015: Gurley (maybe - I guess yes because he was so good for a couple years but he didn’t make it to a second contract.)
2015: Gordon (no - if you don’t want to resign your first rd pick it’s not good)
2016: Elliott (yes because he was so great but his second contract is already an albatross and it just started)
2017: Fournette (no already on another team)
2017: McCaffrey (looks great so far but he’s piling up injuries this year so let’s see in a few years)
2018: Barkley (blew out his knee but has been special - let’s see next contract and production post injury)
2018: Penny (no)
2018: Michel (no)
So with these backs, most of the teams wouldn’t redraft if they were given the chance. Guys like Gurley and Elliott get yes because they were so good for a couple years but that’s sort of the conundrum with a back. To be worth the first round they need to be super special on the rookie deal. Then once they are, you pay them a ridiculous contract that they can’t live up to or you lose them. It’s a loss now or down the road.
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 3,045
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Post by mobaz on Nov 11, 2020 9:29:14 GMT -5
Normally I don't gibe with Mel Kiper, but here's where he's at as of today:
Quarterbacks
1. Trevor Lawrence, Clemson
2. Justin Fields, Ohio State
3. Trey Lance, North Dakota State
4. Zach Wilson, BYU
5. Mac Jones, Alabama
6. Kyle Trask, Florida
7. Kellen Mond, Texas A&M
8. Jamie Newman, Georgia
9. Kenny Pickett, Pitt
10. Sam Ehlinger, Texas
And WR will be crazy deep this year again. I'd add Amon-Ra St. Brown to the bottom of that list (PFF actually has him in the 1st round), with lots of other intriguing options not pictured.
Wide receivers
1. DeVonta Smith, Alabama
2. Ja'Marr Chase, LSU
3. Jaylen Waddle, Alabama
4. Terrace Marshall Jr., LSU
5. Rondale Moore, Purdue
6. Rashod Bateman, Minnesota
7. Chris Olave, Ohio State
8. Kadarius Toney, Florida
9. Tylan Wallace, Oklahoma State
10. Nico Collins, Michigan
As of today, I'd prioritize one of the top 6 QBs, a front seven starter in the 2nd round, and a 3rd round WR that might be 2nd-round-worthy in shallower years.
(I told you I've moved on to the draft!)
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