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Patriots 2021 Offseason Thread
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 8, 2021 12:37:31 GMT -5
The only way to avoid that is drafting well, you need explosive weapons in today's NFL. If your Bill, are you trying to build another dynasty or go for one more championship? Today’s NFL as in the last 2 years? Because they won 3 and went to 4 the 5 years before that so unless you’re using a one year period plus a COViD season as the New NFL I’ll have to disagree and even then, that’s a small sample size to say that’s what you need. So you expect them to find the next Brady? It literally needs to be the next Brady too, not just a good QB for that system to work. For me, we are much more like the rest of the NFL now and you need to adjust. Look at your Boy Watson after they traded Hopkins, put up good numbers yet wasn't close to clutch like Brady and couldn't win games. Now even if you find the next Brady, is he take team friendly deals Brady? You still need to find the best NFL TE ever, one of the best slot WRs ever and they all need to take team friendly deals. Look at the Chiefs, great talent, great QB, WR and TE, yet they also all got paid crazy money. Unless you find the next Brady, I think the formula needs to change. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 8, 2021 13:32:38 GMT -5
Maybe it does - I’m just not buying this New NFL argument. I’m not saying a great receiver doesn’t help or you don’t want one but I don’t buy you need a top WR to win in the NFL and I think if you pay 20m for a receiver you actually hurt your chances by subtracting too much elsewhere.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 8, 2021 13:43:59 GMT -5
Today’s NFL as in the last 2 years? Because they won 3 and went to 4 the 5 years before that so unless you’re using a one year period plus a COViD season as the New NFL I’ll have to disagree and even then, that’s a small sample size to say that’s what you need. Let's not overlook the fact that the Pats had the greatest QB in the history of the NFL, the greatest TE in the history of the NFL, and did the bulk of their passing to the TE, RB and slot receiver positions. They made the situation work, but they didn't win because of their mediocre WR core. This team needs offensive weapons because the only thing they did well in 2020 was run the ball. Brady and Gronk aren't walking (back) through the door, so the WR group is going to have to do their fair share of the work from now on or the team will stink. I’m not but you can’t tell me there’s a New NFL and this how you have to win and then cut 5 years out of it and give no evidence of teams that win this way. There are multiple ways to win. Listen, right now the Chiefs obviously are the best team and have a dominant receiving core but let’s see how that team is in a year or two once Mahomes and Hill are getting huge cap charges together. Manhomes cap jumps up 19m next year to 25m then goes over 31m. Maybe I’m missing it but who are the teams with highly paid QBs and WRs that have sustained success year after year? |
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 8, 2021 14:17:23 GMT -5
There are 5 teams in the NFL who have over 30m in cap space tied to the WR position:
Bengals
Chiefs
Bills
Browns
Eagles
That’s a pretty good list - 2 of the teams are SB favorites and the Browns are a strong team. The issue is all 3 of those teams have cheap QBs on rookie deals.
There are 8 more over 20m
Falcons
Bears
Giants
Cardinals
Texans (dead money tho)
Titans
Packers
Jets
The Packers are the only SB contender there (16.4 of the 20.5 is Adams). If you want to count the Titans as contenders that’s fair - just wait though as next year RB cap hits jump from 8m to 15m and they are going to lose Corey Davis.
The 10 teams who have QB cap hits over 24m are as follows with WR cap spending in parenthesis:
Colts (19.6)
Cowboys (18.1)
Seahawks (16.4)
Raiders (18.2)
Rams (16.4)
Saints (15.8)
9ers (11.2)
Bucs (13.9)
Steelers (5.9)
Packers (20.5)
Next year the Cowboys hit jumps to 27m, Seattle drops 2m, Rams number almost doubts to 31.2m, Saints number does double to 32.3m, bucs number jumps to 20.2m and it doesn’t include Godwin or Brown. Packers are about the same, 9ers and Steelers guys are on rookie deals and the Colts are basically at a reset with both QB and WR groups next year.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 8, 2021 15:27:40 GMT -5
Let's not overlook the fact that the Pats had the greatest QB in the history of the NFL, the greatest TE in the history of the NFL, and did the bulk of their passing to the TE, RB and slot receiver positions. They made the situation work, but they didn't win because of their mediocre WR core. This team needs offensive weapons because the only thing they did well in 2020 was run the ball. Brady and Gronk aren't walking (back) through the door, so the WR group is going to have to do their fair share of the work from now on or the team will stink. I’m not but you can’t tell me there’s a New NFL and this how you have to win and then cut 5 years out of it and give no evidence of teams that win this way. There are multiple ways to win. Listen, right now the Chiefs obviously are the best team and have a dominant receiving core but let’s see how that team is in a year or two once Mahomes and Hill are getting huge cap charges together. Manhomes cap jumps up 19m next year to 25m then goes over 31m. Maybe I’m missing it but who are the teams with highly paid QBs and WRs that have sustained success year after year? Only one team has maintained success year after year and that's the Patriots with Brady. Every other teams goes through cycles. Our down years were 11-13 wins because of Brady and even our recent run with him in today's NFL was best QB ever, best TE ever, fringe HOF WR and great depth. Who's the last team besides the Patriots to win without a very good WR? They don't have to cost 20 million, no one said they did. Yet you have to have them. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 8, 2021 16:21:03 GMT -5
I don’t have issues investing, especially draft capital, into the position.
It’s also a passing league largely because of the rules that protect QB and don’t let DBs touch WRs which makes it easier for receivers so it theoretically shouldn’t be a difficult problem to fix.
I feel the goal posts are starting to get moved slightly to “very good” (I’m not saying you can have trash and we need to be better).
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Post by philarhody on Jan 8, 2021 18:05:59 GMT -5
Watson.... 2021 first 2022 first 2023 first 2021 4th JC Jackson Justin Herron Stidham Maybe you get a pick back like a 2023 3rd If that should happen, what would be the difference between the 2021 Pats and the 2020 Texans? Cap space and coaching |
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 8, 2021 18:15:58 GMT -5
There are 5 teams in the NFL who have over 30m in cap space tied to the WR position: Bengals Chiefs Bills Browns Eagles That’s a pretty good list - 2 of the teams are SB favorites and the Browns are a strong team. The issue is all 3 of those teams have cheap QBs on rookie deals. There are 8 more over 20m Falcons Bears Giants Cardinals Texans (dead money tho) Titans Packers Jets The Packers are the only SB contender there (16.4 of the 20.5 is Adams). If you want to count the Titans as contenders that’s fair - just wait though as next year RB cap hits jump from 8m to 15m and they are going to lose Corey Davis. The 10 teams who have QB cap hits over 24m are as follows with WR cap spending in parenthesis: Colts (19.6) Cowboys (18.1) Seahawks (16.4) Raiders (18.2) Rams (16.4) Saints (15.8) 9ers (11.2) Bucs (13.9) Steelers (5.9) Packers (20.5) Next year the Cowboys hit jumps to 27m, Seattle drops 2m, Rams number almost doubts to 31.2m, Saints number does double to 32.3m, bucs number jumps to 20.2m and it doesn’t include Godwin or Brown. Packers are about the same, 9ers and Steelers guys are on rookie deals and the Colts are basically at a reset with both QB and WR groups next year. This doesn't add anything to the conversation but the eagles having over 30 million in cap tied up in WRs is hilarious. Their best WR this year was a practice squad callup in Fulgham. |
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 8, 2021 18:19:23 GMT -5
If that should happen, what would be the difference between the 2021 Pats and the 2020 Texans? Cap space and coaching The patriots should sell out for Watson. How many more years is belicheck going to coach for? Maybe 5 if they are lucky. The pats have a good to great oline a good running game and cap space to go out and get some wrs. Hopefully the TEs take a step forward this year which is entirely possible since TE is generally one of the hardest positions to acclimate to in the NFL. The defense has some solid players. With Watson theyd be right back in the super bowl contenders list. Edit: there's probably next to 0 percent chance Watson gets traded though. 25 year old qb locked up long term. Texans be better off to take their lumps for the next year or two and will come out of it with a good team with a great qb if they do it right. |
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 8, 2021 19:46:57 GMT -5
Yeah, no cap space. Watson's cap hits are: 2021 - $15.9M 2022 - $40.4M 2023 - $42.4M 2024 - $34.7M 2025 - $32M You can’t trade for him, pay him like that, and fill in enough of the remaining holes to be competitive. Patriots have 60+ million in cap space and that's before moving contracts around and cutting people to create space. Pretty sure they'd be fine. Its probably a moot point because the texans would have to be dumb to trade Watson. Maybe if Bill Obrien was still there though haha. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 8, 2021 19:57:14 GMT -5
Yeah, no cap space. Watson's cap hits are: 2021 - $15.9M 2022 - $40.4M 2023 - $42.4M 2024 - $34.7M 2025 - $32M You can’t trade for him, pay him like that, and fill in enough of the remaining holes to be competitive. Subtract 5.4m from those cap hits for the team that trades for him as they are part of the signing bonus proration that Houston will take as dead cap space. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 9, 2021 0:29:12 GMT -5
I don’t have issues investing, especially draft capital, into the position. It’s also a passing league largely because of the rules that protect QB and don’t let DBs touch WRs which makes it easier for receivers so it theoretically shouldn’t be a difficult problem to fix. I feel the goal posts are starting to get moved slightly to “very good” (I’m not saying you can have trash and we need to be better). Here I thought you were trying to argue against goal posts no one set. I don't see where anyone said we had to have elite WRs or guys making 20 million. You do need a top 15-20 type guy at minimum, a game changer type. The rule changes brought on the new modern day NFL and it's not crazy hard to find those guys in the draft. You do need to invest a lot of draft capital though, most aren't low round picks and the bust rate is rather high. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 9, 2021 0:30:32 GMT -5
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,854 
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Post by cdj on Jan 9, 2021 1:08:21 GMT -5
Everything I’ve read has the dead cap charge at $21 million if traded |
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 9, 2021 5:55:40 GMT -5
Everything I’ve read has the dead cap charge at $21 million if traded Yea it’s 67m if cut - 21m if traded. That being said Cassario isn’t trading him unless he had zero choice. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 9, 2021 5:58:43 GMT -5
I don’t have issues investing, especially draft capital, into the position. It’s also a passing league largely because of the rules that protect QB and don’t let DBs touch WRs which makes it easier for receivers so it theoretically shouldn’t be a difficult problem to fix. I feel the goal posts are starting to get moved slightly to “very good” (I’m not saying you can have trash and we need to be better). Here I thought you were trying to argue against goal posts no one set. I don't see where anyone said we had to have elite WRs or guys making 20 million. You do need a top 15-20 type guy at minimum, a game changer type. The rule changes brought on the new modern day NFL and it's not crazy hard to find those guys in the draft. You do need to invest a lot of draft capital though, most aren't low round picks and the bust rate is rather high. Perhaps, I misunderstood you... obviously you need a solid functional WR core. It can’t be trash. They’ve never really been trash before, except maybe 2006 so I guess i don’t get the point now. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 9, 2021 11:47:19 GMT -5
Here I thought you were trying to argue against goal posts no one set. I don't see where anyone said we had to have elite WRs or guys making 20 million. You do need a top 15-20 type guy at minimum, a game changer type. The rule changes brought on the new modern day NFL and it's not crazy hard to find those guys in the draft. You do need to invest a lot of draft capital though, most aren't low round picks and the bust rate is rather high. Perhaps, I misunderstood you... obviously you need a solid functional WR core. It can’t be trash. They’ve never really been trash before, except maybe 2006 so I guess i don’t get the point now. Solid functional isn't going to win you a championship without Brady and Gronk, you need much more than that. That's been our point since the start, without those two, Edelman and Hogan isn't going to do it. That worked because of Brady and Gronk, just look at last year without Gronk. It's why they gambled on Gordon and Brown. If you don't want to have to spend big money, Bill is going to have to start drafting a lot more WRs and start hitting on them. I say WR because they are a lot easier to get than TEs and even now very few are anything like what Gronk was. Finding the next Gronk is like finding the next Brady. So I'd focus on WRs. I see only one year where the Patriots had a good group of WRs by current NFL standards and that's when they had Cooks for one year. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 9, 2021 12:39:03 GMT -5
Curious, when was the last time a team won a SB while spending a lot on a QB and receiving core? I don’t think that’s a winning combination.
Yes i think they need to draft good receivers.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 9, 2021 12:57:41 GMT -5
Also worth noting that they won in 2016 without Gronk.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 9, 2021 18:05:53 GMT -5
Curious, when was the last time a team won a SB while spending a lot on a QB and receiving core? I don’t think that’s a winning combination. Yes i think they need to draft good receivers. If you're curious go look it up, but since nobody said you had to do this to win you are again just debating with yourself so it's probably not worth the effort. The point was, again, that the Pat's WR group is very bad and that the team hasn't invested enough (draft, trade, or FA) to compete in the future. The other point was that Brady and Gronk have covered up how bad the Pat's WR groups have been and the the WR group will have to be much better in the future. For context, over the last 8 years there have been only two seasons where the team had at least two WR's with more than 700 receiving yards (2014 and 2018) and in 2015 they didn't have any WR clear that mark. Edelman is the only WR to clear that very modest mark more than once in that time period. That simply will not cut it moving forward because you don't have the greatest QB and TE of all time picking up the slack. I’ve already agreed they need to invest more in the group than they currently are. I originally read the argument to be you need a great receiving core in the “New NFL” to win. They certainly need a better one than they have currently. |
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Post by costpet on Jan 10, 2021 7:51:10 GMT -5
The old saying is that Defense wins championships. That was before all the rules changes to help the offense. Now, you'd better be able to score a lot of points if you want to win anything. That means a QB who can throw and receivers who can not only catch, but stretch the field. 3rd and 18 isn't impossible anymore. I know the Pats SB win in 2018 is an exception, but the Rams got there with the most points in the league that year.
Watching Brady and Gronk and Brown makes me both sad and happy at the same time. Weird feeling.
Coaching and draft picking are very different things. Remember, we chose Sony over Lamar in the first round.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jan 10, 2021 8:39:07 GMT -5
Last night Taylor Heinicke looked better in all aspects of QB play than Newton did at any point this past season for the Pats. If not for dropped passes the WFT may have upset the Bucs. I really don't remember more than a couple throws that weren't very catchable, guy played lights out. And that is after only one month from being signed to the practice squad.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 10, 2021 10:17:35 GMT -5
Last night Taylor Heinicke looked better in all aspects of QB play than Newton did at any point this past season for the Pats. If not for dropped passes the WFT may have upset the Bucs. I really don't remember more than a couple throws that weren't very catchable, guy played lights out. And that is after only one month from being signed to the practice squad. Former Patriot |
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Post by voiceofreason on Jan 10, 2021 13:38:02 GMT -5
YUP, what 10 days on the practice squad. He throws a nice ball, of course that is after watching Cam throw all season. He looked better than Cam has in any game, made himself millions.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 10, 2021 13:56:29 GMT -5
YUP, what 10 days on the practice squad. He throws a nice ball, of course that is after watching Cam throw all season. He looked better than Cam has in any game, made himself millions. Back up QB is the second best position in football - only surpassed by punter. |
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