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Patriots 2021 Offseason Thread
mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Mar 19, 2021 7:20:16 GMT -5
A few interesting things from the last day.
First, the new TV deal. Rumor mill is a huge cap jump won't come until 2024; remember that the players actually took out a loan on the future cap to make sure it didn't drop further this year. The big Pats deals are in the 2-4 year range. Were the Pats smart to lock these guys in or will it be a slower market for another year or two? Probably more teams can clear their cap sheets next year so even if the cap growth is slow, more teams will be ready to play next year; the Pats were a year early. Unclear if their strategy looks like a long-term value win.
Second, with Andrews I don't see any way they can get a Jimmy G or Cousins comfortably under the cap. They don't have anymore cut candidates and their only restructure candidates of note are McCourty and Hightower. Everyone else is on a new deal or rookie deal.
Third, I do think they really misread the WR market. Despite the PEDs, wouldn't Fuller be a better option than Agholor? I liked Samuel's deal and would have rather that too for a 24 year old who is clearly ascending. Samuel and John Brown would have filled the same roles but with more upside. Golladay and JuJu are obviously facing soft markets, and if they are talking to the Bears and Giants per rumors it's not a QB thing.
QB and Gilmore are the biggest outstanding questions. I think they'll have to move up really high to get the leftover of Lance/Fields, or else they love Mac Jones and will move up for him. I just feel like Mills/Trask/Newman in the 2nd isn't a plan so much as a prayer.
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Post by rminns10 on Mar 19, 2021 8:04:50 GMT -5
Third, I do think they really misread the WR market. Despite the PEDs, wouldn't Fuller be a better option than Agholor? I liked Samuel's deal and would have rather that too for a 24 year old who is clearly ascending. Samuel and John Brown would have filled the same roles but with more upside. Golladay and JuJu are obviously facing soft markets, and if they are talking to the Bears and Giants per rumors it's not a QB thing. Fuller is super talented but hurt way too much |
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Mar 19, 2021 8:25:37 GMT -5
Handy graphic from Pats Cap.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 19, 2021 8:29:08 GMT -5
Third, I do think they really misread the WR market. Despite the PEDs, wouldn't Fuller be a better option than Agholor? I liked Samuel's deal and would have rather that too for a 24 year old who is clearly ascending. Samuel and John Brown would have filled the same roles but with more upside. Golladay and JuJu are obviously facing soft markets, and if they are talking to the Bears and Giants per rumors it's not a QB thing. Fuller is super talented but hurt way too much Also, Samuel wouldn’t fill the same role - he’s a gadget guy not a deep threat. I like him but they don’t run the same routes. Here’s the thing, Bill has a plan and he executes it and doesn’t mess around. He has a number and he offers a contract, gives players a short time to accept it and the moves on. With Agholor, it’s clear they had a very specific goal in kind and that was to get a deep threat. He also fits their profile of a high end talent who didn’t live up to it early in his career. Last year was a breakout for him. He’s just entering his prime so it’s very possible the contract ends up being a bargain. But the free agent market for receivers has been super slow and not as lucrative as people thought. It is possible they could have gotten him cheaper had they waited but it’s also possible they don’t get him or an equivalent and they clearly had a checklist and went out and wanted to fill it. Has to be mad about it. |
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Mar 19, 2021 9:21:54 GMT -5
Fuller is super talented but hurt way too much Also, Samuel wouldn’t fill the same role - he’s a gadget guy not a deep threat. I like him but they don’t run the same routes. Here’s the thing, Bill has a plan and he executes it and doesn’t mess around. He has a number and he offers a contract, gives players a short time to accept it and the moves on. With Agholor, it’s clear they had a very specific goal in kind and that was to get a deep threat. He also fits their profile of a high end talent who didn’t live up to it early in his career. Last year was a breakout for him. He’s just entering his prime so it’s very possible the contract ends up being a bargain. But the free agent market for receivers has been super slow and not as lucrative as people thought. It is possible they could have gotten him cheaper had they waited but it’s also possible they don’t get him or an equivalent and they clearly had a checklist and went out and wanted to fill it. Has to be mad about it. I was thinking John Brown = Agholor-like deep threat (which BTW Agholor has never been a field stretcher until last year) and Samuel = way better Bourne replacement |
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 19, 2021 9:34:52 GMT -5
Also, Samuel wouldn’t fill the same role - he’s a gadget guy not a deep threat. I like him but they don’t run the same routes. Here’s the thing, Bill has a plan and he executes it and doesn’t mess around. He has a number and he offers a contract, gives players a short time to accept it and the moves on. With Agholor, it’s clear they had a very specific goal in kind and that was to get a deep threat. He also fits their profile of a high end talent who didn’t live up to it early in his career. Last year was a breakout for him. He’s just entering his prime so it’s very possible the contract ends up being a bargain. But the free agent market for receivers has been super slow and not as lucrative as people thought. It is possible they could have gotten him cheaper had they waited but it’s also possible they don’t get him or an equivalent and they clearly had a checklist and went out and wanted to fill it. Has to be mad about it. I was thinking John Brown = Agholor-like deep threat (which BTW Agholor has never been a field stretcher until last year) and Samuel = way better Bourne replacement Gotcha - I’d rather the Patriots guys... The real money is very similar for both duos so I want the guys in their primes Brown is 31 and a bit smaller than Agholor. The deep threat is the bigger need so I’d rather spend more there and get the better player than at the other spot. Also, Samuel was a disappointment like Agholor was before last season. He also requires more scheming. I’m excited about Bourne, reminds me of acquire Welker before he busted out. |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 19, 2021 9:52:13 GMT -5
In my very uneducated opinion, even with all these changes, with the huge exception of the tight end positions in which they dramatically improved themselves, what can they do with the wide receiving position? They still don't look like they have a go-to-guy and Edelman has physical issues.
Is there somebody in free agency that can really help them. If so would they be far enough under the cap to afford the player?
I'm assuming now that they'll be trading to move up in the draft and snag their future QB as trading for Watson doesn't really look like an option now. So their 1st pick will be a QB. But will they be looking for an impact wide receiver in the draft as well? I would think they'd have one more spend in them.
But then again they were also looking for another running back as well, weren't they?
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Post by beasleyrockah on Mar 19, 2021 12:01:00 GMT -5
In my very uneducated opinion, even with all these changes, with the huge exception of the tight end positions in which they dramatically improved themselves, what can they do with the wide receiving position? They still don't look like they have a go-to-guy and Edelman has physical issues. Is there somebody in free agency that can really help them. If so would they be far enough under the cap to afford the player? I'm assuming now that they'll be trading to move up in the draft and snag their future QB as trading for Watson doesn't really look like an option now. So their 1st pick will be a QB. But will they be looking for an impact wide receiver in the draft as well? I would think they'd have one more spend in them. But then again they were also looking for another running back as well, weren't they? I doubt they'll sign a big money WR, it wouldn't make sense to give Bourne and Agholor their deals and pay two TE's top of the market money if they were still going to sign a top WR. Drafting a WR makes a lot of sense, this class is deep and they can get a future starter outside the 1st round. They also have the depth to not need the rookie to make a significant year 1 contribution. If they have a RB on the field, they can only align four other skill guys: Smith, Henry, Agholor seem like locks most plays when healthy, so only one of Meyers, Bourne, Edelman, Harry, etc. would join them on the field. Depth matters and having the ability to utilize 4 WR sets in certain matchups is nice, but if they plan to sign a Golladay type or trade for OBJ they should've passed on one of Agholor or Bourne (or one of the TE's). |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 19, 2021 12:05:42 GMT -5
I kinda hate the draft a QB and let him sit approach to a backup QB given Newton is the starter. If you're drafting a guy to sit for a year, you need an NFL ready backup also. I'm 100% on board drafting a QB, we need Cam Newton insurance though. The theme for QBs in this draft is limited starts and going after a QB in the draft is risky when you sit at pick 15. There's no guarantee you can get your guy. So either you think Stidham is that guy or you need one. I love Stidham, yet even my trust is gone after last year. QBs just flew off the market, Mariota is the only guy left unless Jimmy becomes available. I guess your goal could be trade up to pick #3/4 to make sure you get your guy. I still have big doubts if they'll do that, nevermind that's how crazy bidding wars start. This really has to be the #1 priority. Otherwise you might have just built a great team without having a good QB. Bills got a steal with Mitch Trubisky for one year 2.5 million, who last year looked better than Newton.
The NFL cap is going to spike next year. Yeah it's going to take years to get the full amount of the new TV deal given the borrowing of cap space. That just means you won't see 250-260 million till then, which is possible based off this year's numbers and the new TV deal. You will still see a huge jump to somewhere around $210 million.
I have to believe they think Edelman can come back 100% next year. Otherwise they would have targeted more than Bourne at the slot. They were in on Green, an outside guy. I like where the group is, leaves you room to draft a guy which they really need to do.
I see Mills as a safety, not a CB. He was just used like Chung last year and got a big payday. I'm sure Bill loves his versatility and he'll be used all over, yet in a Chung type role. So you can really use another CB.
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Post by texs31 on Mar 19, 2021 12:18:29 GMT -5
Raekwon Mcmillan signed for 1 yr. Desmond Trufant was also visiting to we'll see where that ends up.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Mar 19, 2021 12:33:44 GMT -5
Had a feeling they would look at Trufant- I figured with his play style and the Patricia connection they would at least kick the tires
Raekwon McMillan flashed as a rookie from what I remember. Not sure what happened in his second year or in Vegas
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Mar 19, 2021 12:34:40 GMT -5
In my very uneducated opinion, even with all these changes, with the huge exception of the tight end positions in which they dramatically improved themselves, what can they do with the wide receiving position? They still don't look like they have a go-to-guy and Edelman has physical issues. Is there somebody in free agency that can really help them. If so would they be far enough under the cap to afford the player? I'm assuming now that they'll be trading to move up in the draft and snag their future QB as trading for Watson doesn't really look like an option now. So their 1st pick will be a QB. But will they be looking for an impact wide receiver in the draft as well? I would think they'd have one more spend in them. But then again they were also looking for another running back as well, weren't they? I think you’ll see Henry + Smith be the “go-to” guys Wouldn’t shock me if you see Henry isolated on the outside a whole bunch. They’ll use him like Gronk They may not have a true dominant pass catcher but they have a ton of guys that need to be accounted for. Last year the only threat was Meyers and he’s got zero YAC ability so he’s not scaring people in a big way. I like him as a possession guy Lazar seems to think they’re building a team that’s perfect for Trey Lance |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 19, 2021 13:31:06 GMT -5
McMillan looks like competition for Bentley. Same type of player, issues guarding the pass in space, he's just a quicker version of that type of player. 4.61 versus 4.78.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 19, 2021 13:41:08 GMT -5
I’m not sure what you mean by “go to” receiver, but I don’t think they need guys other than what they have in theory here already.
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Post by texs31 on Mar 19, 2021 14:04:01 GMT -5
Looks like McMillan played mostly on special teams for LV after being a "starter".
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 19, 2021 15:12:02 GMT -5
I’m not sure what you mean by “go to” receiver, but I don’t think they need guys other than what they have in theory here already. I meant #1 receiver, primary receiver, a guy that other teams worry about covering. |
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Post by texs31 on Mar 19, 2021 15:45:59 GMT -5
I would just point out that Welker and Edelman weren't #1 until they were.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 19, 2021 16:13:37 GMT -5
I would just point out that Welker and Edelman weren't #1 until they were. Understood. Just not sure they have somebody that can do what those guys did. I'm assuming Edelman isn't 100%. I know their tight ends will be extremely busy. Just wondered if any of their receivers could be one of those guys catching 50 plus and getting near 1000 yards receiving, not that those numbers are the be-all, end-all. |
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Post by wildsox on Mar 19, 2021 16:29:23 GMT -5
Have to think they look at Receiver at #15 now. Unless a QB falls to them
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 19, 2021 16:40:10 GMT -5
Have to think they look at Receiver at #15 now. Unless a QB falls to them I think they are in the enviable spot of being able to pick any position at 15 |
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Post by ramireja on Mar 19, 2021 16:51:46 GMT -5
So I'm hoping someone who understands this stuff better can confirm for me: Seeing the substantial increases in cap hits in 2022 relative to 2021....it seems like we'll be able to absorb this through a combo of 1) an anticipated increase in salary cap for 2022, and 2) some degree of contract restructuring for players under contract. Is that correct? That said, I imagine even with those factors accounted for that we'll still likely not have as much financial flexibility next offseason right?
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Post by texs31 on Mar 19, 2021 17:22:07 GMT -5
Speaking of the draft, despite earlier reports, it looks like NE WAS awarded a 5th rd compensatory pick.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 19, 2021 22:37:26 GMT -5
Okay a little lower than the original 4th predicted, you get the first 5th round comp pick. It didn't make sense, we easily should have got one for Brady, Van Noy and Collins.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 20, 2021 6:41:22 GMT -5
So I'm hoping someone who understands this stuff better can confirm for me: Seeing the substantial increases in cap hits in 2022 relative to 2021....it seems like we'll be able to absorb this through a combo of 1) an anticipated increase in salary cap for 2022, and 2) some degree of contract restructuring for players under contract. Is that correct? That said, I imagine even with those factors accounted for that we'll still likely not have as much financial flexibility next offseason right? Correct, there will be restructures and or cuts. But the increase in cap will help that as well. They also have some big contracts coming off the books that will come with lower cap hits if redone. |
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Mar 20, 2021 7:00:04 GMT -5
With all these holes filled, BB might just use his draft picks to trade up for his future QB. Let Newton train him for a year. I think BB got his genius back. He never lost it, he was severely hindered last year with the cap, players opting out due to Covid and the Goat all leaving at once. He gamed the entire league as the cap space decreased which left more scrambling teams than ever cutting players in their prime. As much space as the Pats had they made a few trades which also opened up considerable cap space too. Perfect storm in our favor, now we just need to find a good QB. |
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