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Patriots 2021 Offseason Thread
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 3, 2021 10:25:34 GMT -5
I get why you wouldn't want to take a QB in the 2nd, I don't have any of them rated that high. My 6th guy Trask is like late second to third on just pure talent. Yet we have a mid second round pick, then don't pick again to end of the third round. You never know what will happen with QBs, yet Trask, Mund and Mills could all go off the board between our picks. The 49ers already started the run on QBs, it's all but confirmed that three will go in the first three picks.
I remember looking at past WR classes and thinking X amount of WRs can't be picked by a certain point and I was dead wrong. This isn't 20 years ago, teams draft talent.
If you really like Trask, Mund or Mills it's crazy risky to hope they fall. It might happen, it likely doesn't. So if you won't take one with our second, you need to find a way to move up to get them.
We need a QB, find the guy you want and if you can get him, go get him. Almost all QBs get overdrafted.
The only way we should play the value game is if you don't really like any of them. Who knows maybe that's the case, yet this is a very talented and deep group.
We all know Bill doesn't draft based on need, we've had these QBs debates for years. I'm almost always higher on my Notre Dame guys because that's my team. I haven't mentioned Ian Book because his arm talent limits his ceiling. He's not Trask as in his arm talent hurts his down field passing. Now basically because of that I've kinda wrote him off. His ceiling is good backup. Yet if you're looking for QBs that fit the Patriots offense, he fits like a glove. He's basically a more athletic Mac Jones, with less arm talent and had much less talent around him. He's a game manager, can make a lot of plays with his legs, very good in the short to medium range of the field. Notre Dame has had better QBs based on physical tools, yet there's a reason he has won more games than any Notre Dame QB in history. He's also one of the more pro ready QBs in the league. Heck I'd like to take him as a second QB in the draft. He's going to challenge guys and at worst he's a great guy for the practice squad to prepare for dual threat QBs. He's just a Patriot type player and if you won't bring in a veteran to challenge Stidham than Book is a good option late in the draft.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Apr 3, 2021 14:27:13 GMT -5
If the Pats project any of those QB's as the future starter, then sure, overdraft by 15-30 spots and get your guy. I'd still prefer to trade back from #46 to at least the bottom of round 2, but that's not a big deal if they pick the right guy. If the Pats wait until pick #96 they'll be in a tough spot, but they have plenty of picks to bridge the gap between #46-96, so they should be able to get one of those guys in a reasonable value range.
Ultimately, I think if they draft any of those players they'll still firmly be in the QB market moving forward. I see them all as high end backups or fringe starters, but I don't think any have the ceiling of an above average QB in today's NFL, and given the league's depth moving forward even top 20 feels very unlikely imo. They are built to win now and need a QB ASAP, but I'd rather punt the trade capital to 2022 and wait for a viable solid average to better starter than reach on a fringe option. 5+ years ago fringe starters had more value, but going forward it feels like there will be a number of those types who are readily available for minimal resources. There's value in finding system fits and getting them in your system in hopes of unlocking their ceiling, but if you buy high it'll basically mean that ceiling needs to be realized or else it's a bad pick.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 4, 2021 0:57:09 GMT -5
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Apr 5, 2021 15:01:31 GMT -5
Panthers trade for Darnold! 2021 6th and 2022 2nd and 5th. No idea if conditional. I assume this takes them out of the QB market at 8+. I honestly figured Denver would end up with Darnold (during/after the draft).
QB dominos falling.
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Post by ghostofrussgibson on Apr 5, 2021 17:30:41 GMT -5
So the top three picks are QB. Maybe Atlanta a 4 as well. There go Lawrence, Wilson, Fields, Lance. Is there another team that'll look to take a QB before NE at 15? Denver?
And if the top 5 QBs are gone, might we see NE slip down a few spots and still get a defensive stud?
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Apr 5, 2021 21:15:06 GMT -5
So the top three picks are QB. Maybe Atlanta a 4 as well. There go Lawrence, Wilson, Fields, Lance. Is there another team that'll look to take a QB before NE at 15? Denver? And if the top 5 QBs are gone, might we see NE slip down a few spots and still get a defensive stud? Idk if Atlanta goes QB quite yet There also seems to be smoke about Mac Jones jumping 1 or 2 of those guys If there is no QB I wouldn’t hate a trade down provided no premium talent falls |
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 5, 2021 21:56:50 GMT -5
So the top three picks are QB. Maybe Atlanta a 4 as well. There go Lawrence, Wilson, Fields, Lance. Is there another team that'll look to take a QB before NE at 15? Denver? And if the top 5 QBs are gone, might we see NE slip down a few spots and still get a defensive stud? The talk is that Jones is the #3 pick with SF taking him, behind Wilson at #2 and Lawrence at #1. So you figure one of Fields or Lance is sure to go soon thereafter. I don't know that all 5 make it down to 15. Maybe the Patriots can trade up - some writer suggested #11 in a trade with NYG. Maybe they can go there and still nab Fields? He might be the #5 guy as far as QBs go. I'm still worried the Patriots won't wind up with one of those 5 guys if they don't trade up. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 6, 2021 6:10:30 GMT -5
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Apr 6, 2021 7:12:29 GMT -5
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Apr 6, 2021 7:21:47 GMT -5
Nice! A lot of things have settled themselves long before the draft. 49ers are in, Miami, Philly, Carolina are likely out. Below the Pats you still need to consider Las Vegas, WFT and Chicago, whose QB moves are "dating but not marriage" level. Still a little worried about Minny, Atlanta and Detroit. Given all the early moves, I wonder whether 2 of Jones/Fields/Lance have really lost their luster for some teams. Doesn't matter; if the Pats can get either of Lance or Fields for a reasonable move up, they should/have to do it. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 6, 2021 10:47:29 GMT -5
I don't know about that, I mean first round QBs bust at about a 50% clip. What's the rate in the 2nd to 4th round 75%? What's the most important thing a QB has to do? According to the so called experts it's be a dual threat guy. Yet I'd say it's still being a good passer. Perfect world you get both, non-perfect world which do you pick? Now Bill recently has done a ton of things he hasn't before, yet he's still never drafted a QB that wasn't a four year college guy. Mills, Mund and Trask are four year College guys. Tom Brady was a 23 year old rookie. I do find it kinda funny everyone picks on Trask for being non mobile, yet they don't seem to have that problem with Jones or Mills, guys that just like Trask didn't even have a 100 yards rushing in their College careers. Trask easily had the most rushing TDs of the three and is kinda of a big weapon given his size in those short yardage areas. If that's how the NFL guys look at Trask, Mund and Mills, it's crystal clear who the best value is for the Patriots offense. I like Mills, yet second round seems crazy from a value point of view. Who are the 49ers taking? If it's Mac Jones, I'd consider moving up for Fields. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 6, 2021 13:19:31 GMT -5
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 6, 2021 18:04:02 GMT -5
Nice! A lot of things have settled themselves long before the draft. 49ers are in, Miami, Philly, Carolina are likely out. Below the Pats you still need to consider Las Vegas, WFT and Chicago, whose QB moves are "dating but not marriage" level. Still a little worried about Minny, Atlanta and Detroit. Given all the early moves, I wonder whether 2 of Jones/Fields/Lance have really lost their luster for some teams. Doesn't matter; if the Pats can get either of Lance or Fields for a reasonable move up, they should/have to do it. I don't know, with SF moving up for a QB Garoppolo is going to be available next year. If one of the big 4/5 QBs fall out of the top 10 then I think they have to find a way to get him, otherwise I could easily see the Pats trade back in the first round for extra picks and use a 2nd on Trask/Mond type with the idea that if nobody steps up Garoppolo will be there next year. I really feel like I’d hate a trade back. It certainly depends how the draft falls but based on the way I’ve seen some of these mocks fall, the guys available at 15 are too good to pass up in my opinion. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 7, 2021 6:48:47 GMT -5
Are we buying the Mac Jones to the 49ers at 3?
Reports that both the coach and GM never even talked to Nick Saban about him at the pro day.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 7, 2021 10:14:40 GMT -5
I really feel like I’d hate a trade back. It certainly depends how the draft falls but based on the way I’ve seen some of these mocks fall, the guys available at 15 are too good to pass up in my opinion. Yeah, I go back and forth between trading up half a dozen spots and trading back half a dozen spots and it changes every time I look at a new mock draft. Totally depends on how the draft plays out too. I really like the idea of a QB or WR if one gets in a reasonable range. I can also see a CB. Kind of luke warm on other options, but that's just me and I'm no expert. If Parsons off field and locker room stuff is not real then him at 15 is a steal. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 7, 2021 10:23:13 GMT -5
Are we buying the Mac Jones to the 49ers at 3? Reports that both the coach and GM never even talked to Nick Saban about him at the pro day. I buy it as a legit possibility - but I’m not setting it in stone... I think one of Lance or Fields or Jones will fall. Carolina getting Darnold and Detroit Goff is big. If Atlanta doesn’t take a QB then that leaves Denver ahead of the Pats. Obviously there can be a trade up from someone like Chicago or Washington. Right now, I lean towards Lance falling which makes the most sense. I also lean towards Lance being at the bottom of Bills wish list. |
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Post by beasleyrockah on Apr 7, 2021 12:30:13 GMT -5
I buy Jones to SF after Schefter mentioned it. It doesn't feel like a lock in the same way Lawrence and Wilson do at 1-2, but all the smoke is around Jones right now. SF doesn't have much incentive to leak misinformation, the top two picks are locked in. If the pick is Jones, most fans and media will criticize it, so it makes some sense to leak how much they like Jones now to shift the expectations and take away the shock on draft night.
If Jones is the 49ers pick as rumored, I think Jimmy will be gone by this trade deadline, if not before week 1. Jones isn't a guy that should need a redshirt year. If Jimmy is such a big upgrade over Jones next year that it's worth carrying Jimmy's huge cap number, that's a really bad sign considering the prospect's profile and acquisition cost. Jones isn't a toolsy but raw prospect like Lance, his appeal is being polished and NFL ready. If the 49ers like Jones enough to give up a draft pick haul, they should trust him to be at least comparable to Jimmy in year one. Even if they put him on Tua's path from last year, it's a poor use of resources to pay Jimmy to start ~6 games or so. His salary could significantly upgrade the roster at other spots. They could easily grab a Mariota type to maintain veteran insurance at a much lower rate.
The 49ers have no incentive to admit they'll be moving Jimmy right now. Maybe some team (Patriots?) strikes out at the draft and gets desperate for a competent veteran QB. Jimmy can provide important competition for Mac and serve as injury insurance during camp and preseason, and cutting him just before week 1 is an option. Also, it buys the 49ers time to see if another team's starter gets injured before week 1. If Lance or Fields is the pick it'd make more sense to keep Jimmy.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 7, 2021 15:08:49 GMT -5
I buy Jones to SF after Schefter mentioned it. It doesn't feel like a lock in the same way Lawrence and Wilson do at 1-2, but all the smoke is around Jones right now. SF doesn't have much incentive to leak misinformation, the top two picks are locked in. If the pick is Jones, most fans and media will criticize it, so it makes some sense to leak how much they like Jones now to shift the expectations and take away the shock on draft night. If Jones is the 49ers pick as rumored, I think Jimmy will be gone by this trade deadline, if not before week 1. Jones isn't a guy that should need a redshirt year. If Jimmy is such a big upgrade over Jones next year that it's worth carrying Jimmy's huge cap number, that's a really bad sign considering the prospect's profile and acquisition cost. Jones isn't a toolsy but raw prospect like Lance, his appeal is being polished and NFL ready. If the 49ers like Jones enough to give up a draft pick haul, they should trust him to be at least comparable to Jimmy in year one. Even if they put him on Tua's path from last year, it's a poor use of resources to pay Jimmy to start ~6 games or so. His salary could significantly upgrade the roster at other spots. They could easily grab a Mariota type to maintain veteran insurance at a much lower rate. The 49ers have no incentive to admit they'll be moving Jimmy right now. Maybe some team (Patriots?) strikes out at the draft and gets desperate for a competent veteran QB. Jimmy can provide important competition for Mac and serve as injury insurance during camp and preseason, and cutting him just before week 1 is an option. Also, it buys the 49ers time to see if another team's starter gets injured before week 1. If Lance or Fields is the pick it'd make more sense to keep Jimmy. Cutting Jimmy would be a disaster for San Fran... i don’t see them doing that. But perhaps they will. |
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Post by texs31 on Apr 7, 2021 16:14:35 GMT -5
Dustin Woodard was reinstated from the retired list. Many thought he was a roster lock (despite the low draft spot) last year prior to his retirement.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 7, 2021 20:05:08 GMT -5
Dustin Woodard was reinstated from the retired list. Many thought he was a roster lock (despite the low draft spot) last year prior to his retirement. Who thought he was a roster lock before he even practiced? |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 7, 2021 20:28:11 GMT -5
Are we buying the Mac Jones to the 49ers at 3? Reports that both the coach and GM never even talked to Nick Saban about him at the pro day. From what I've read, Jones seems to have a relatively high floor where Fields and especially Lance are bigger gambles with more upside. So if you're a risk averse GM I could see an argument to go with the safer pick in Jones. I don't think I agree with that. I have issues with Fields advanced things, like how quickly he reads plays and reacts. Yet I've never even seen how Mac Jones handles big time pressure or getting hit a lot, things that will happen in the NFL. That's a huge thing in the NFL. I've seen some people really like Jones, yet I've seen a bunch question how much was him and his much was just that crazy talented team. Unless Fields has IQ issues or something like that, I'd say his dual threat ability gives him a higher floor. |
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Post by texs31 on Apr 7, 2021 20:36:15 GMT -5
Dustin Woodard was reinstated from the retired list. Many thought he was a roster lock (despite the low draft spot) last year prior to his retirement. Who thought he was a roster lock before he even practiced? That was lazy of me. Picked shorthand for the fact that the 1st wave of roster projections from the local writers all seemed to had him on it. |
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Post by texs31 on Apr 7, 2021 20:38:34 GMT -5
Are we buying the Mac Jones to the 49ers at 3? Reports that both the coach and GM never even talked to Nick Saban about him at the pro day. Trying to figure out the motivation for a smokescreen though. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 7, 2021 21:23:34 GMT -5
Are we buying the Mac Jones to the 49ers at 3? Reports that both the coach and GM never even talked to Nick Saban about him at the pro day. Trying to figure out the motivation for a smokescreen though. Everything I've seen is guys giving their opinion, not that they have inside information. Even Adam Schefter was I believe in the end it will be Mac Jones at 3. Why did they feel the need to get to #3 for Mac Jones? |
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Post by texs31 on Apr 7, 2021 21:54:49 GMT -5
Matt Miller is one that said his sources are saying it but that's just 1 guy.
If you really believe hes the guy, dont play the value game. You go get him.
Now I dont know why they think hes the guy but . . .
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