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Patriots 2021 Offseason Thread
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 8, 2021 5:30:55 GMT -5
Trying to figure out the motivation for a smokescreen though. Everything I've seen is guys giving their opinion, not that they have inside information. Even Adam Schefter was I believe in the end it will be Mac Jones at 3. Why did they feel the need to get to #3 for Mac Jones? Number 3 is the spot they had to get to in order to guarantee their guy, whoever it is. If you love a player, even if it’s Mac Jones, you have to assume someone else will love him too. We aren’t talking a second or 3rd round pick here. It’s a franchise QB, you don’t mess with that and say “oh, according to mock drafts, we should be about to get this guy between 7 and 14 so I’m not trading higher than 7. Also, you had a team in Miami willing to play ball.
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mobaz
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Posts: 3,046
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Post by mobaz on Apr 8, 2021 7:45:27 GMT -5
Via Reiss, Mike Lombardi says the Pats draft board would likely not place enough value on Lance and Fields to justify the Pats moving up. He doesn't think they can be Top 10 QBs and you would have to think they are for the Pats to see that value for moving up.
I still don't see how you splurge on FA and open a 2 to 3 year window and then have the 30th best QB in the league to run it. And there is no cap space for Jimmy G or Cousins or similar.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 8, 2021 12:49:07 GMT -5
Everything I've seen is guys giving their opinion, not that they have inside information. Even Adam Schefter was I believe in the end it will be Mac Jones at 3. Why did they feel the need to get to #3 for Mac Jones? Number 3 is the spot they had to get to in order to guarantee their guy, whoever it is. If you love a player, even if it’s Mac Jones, you have to assume someone else will love him too. We aren’t talking a second or 3rd round pick here. It’s a franchise QB, you don’t mess with that and say “oh, according to mock drafts, we should be about to get this guy between 7 and 14 so I’m not trading higher than 7. Also, you had a team in Miami willing to play ball. Willing to play ball? Lots of teams will play ball if you offer three firsts and a third round pick to move up 9 spots. No one has graded Mac Jones as an elite QB prospect. This isn't trading up to get an elite guy. For me taking Mac Jones at #3 would be crazy, trading up given what that cost, is like taking Kyle Trask at 15. I love Kyle Trask, I think he's a perfect fit for our offense. I think he has a bunch of upside left and is just getting started. I've debated if because he's a QB, is it worth it getting pick 30-32 to lock in that extra year. I can't do it, the whole way I look at the draft is based on value. I have Mac Jones closer to Trask than top 3 pick. Heck your first Mock you had us trading down to get Mac Jones, so you certainly don't see a top five talent that we'd be lucky to get at 15. I'm willing to overdraft a QB, yet not to that level. Taking Mac Jones at three with crazy high upside guys available, kinda feels like taking Trubisky over Mahomes and Watson in the 2017 Draft. The Bears got their guy, I actually don't think he's a horrible player. I think he could do well in a system like ours, kinda pissed we didn't go after him as a backup QB. Yet you passed on two guys with just more talent. I'm sure you can find some examples where that worked out. I have worries about Fields and Lance, yet both easily have top five QB upside. I don't have insider information to truly nail down these picks, I can't get inside these guys heads. So picks like Rosen, the Red Flags were there, then picks like Dwayne Haskins you didn't hear about it, yet you clearly see why he dropped. Fields and Lance have all the talent in the world, they can both do things Jones can't dream of doing. If I'm making a trade like the 49ers just made I need to be getting a guy like that. You feel strongly that Mac Jones is better today and more importantly 5-10 years from now than Fields and Lance? If it's Mac Jones, this is either going to look brilliant or be one of the bigger draft blunders in recent memory. To make matters worse for me, they have Jimmy Garoppolo who's 24-8 in his career. Sure health is an issue, yet you aren't the bears who don't have anyone. I'd go get Tom Brady's trainer and get him on that workout plan.
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Post by texs31 on Apr 8, 2021 12:55:00 GMT -5
At some point we have might have to reconcile ourselves with the idea that NFL GMs (at least some of them) MIGHT have different grades on players than the websites, magazines and, dare I say, dudes on a message board.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 8, 2021 14:33:15 GMT -5
All teams have different grades, it's a question of who's right when they differ greatly. If you go against the norm in a big way, you open yourself up to major criticism if you're wrong and major praise if you're right.
Bills last draft, he did that twice in taking Keene and the kicker who doesn't deserve to be named. Right now you'd give both picks an F. Some of Bills worst picks are him doing that crap, with most of his best picks being value picks.
Draft magazines are perfect because they are set in stone, no adjusting because of what they hear teams might do. Just the players rankings based off what they did in College. They all kinda agree mid level starter upside, compared to Goff and Andy Dalton, grades of 1st-2nd round, 2nd round and third round.
We should do a poll on how many people think Mac Jones is a top three talent in this class and worth what they traded. Just to get it on record. I'll have no problem admitting if I'm wrong. We're just talking about a guy going top three that I had doubts if he was worth the 15 pick.
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Post by texs31 on Apr 8, 2021 15:13:48 GMT -5
But I think the point is that it doesn't matter how many people think Jones is rated that high (I don't for sure). It only matters that 1 person thinks that. And if he (Shanahan) does, you don't mess around. You go get him.
The mags (and sites) are imperfect bc they attempt to form a consensus using data that doesn't come from the most important collectors of said data. Namely, the 32 teams and their decision makers.
Sure, they are the best proxy we have but they don't do well to answer these types of questions bc "it only takes 1"
To be honest, I'd rather have insight on what people are hearing (absorb enough information and versions of the truth start to come out) than insight on what Lindy's (or Kiper or McShay or Miller or . . . ) WOULD do.
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Post by texs31 on Apr 8, 2021 15:23:57 GMT -5
And to be clear, I'm not suggesting you're wrong for thinking Jones isn't worth the 3rd pick. I'm suggesting that your reasoning for the "rumor" being bogus is based on information that lacks the most important element. The rumors, while potentially being a smokescreen, at least suggest the possibility Shanahan is thinking this way and that is what matters.
That being said, I did come up with a stretch of an explanation for why a smokescreen might have value for SF. Maybe Shanahan knows/feels that BB is deciding between Mac Jones and a trade for Jimmy G. BB might be more willing to meet the Niners price if he thinks his other option isn't really an option.
Yes, it's a stretch.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 8, 2021 15:51:52 GMT -5
I don't think I agree with that. I have issues with Fields advanced things, like how quickly he reads plays and reacts. Yet I've never even seen how Mac Jones handles big time pressure or getting hit a lot, things that will happen in the NFL. That's a huge thing in the NFL. I've seen some people really like Jones, yet I've seen a bunch question how much was him and his much was just that crazy talented team. Unless Fields has IQ issues or something like that, I'd say his dual threat ability gives him a higher floor. I could be wrong. I barely watch college football, but I caught the Alabama vs Ohio State game because I wanted to see the QBs in action. Lots of other factors in play, but from that game it was hard for me to see Fields as the superior QB. I'm not a scout by any means, so is there anything I'm missing or am I just putting too much stock in to one game? One question - isn't "poor processing speed" code for "he's dumb"? Are there players who overcome or fix processing speed issues? That's kinda of the million dollar question with Fields. Was it the offense or does he have major issues? I have no clue without interviewing him and having more details. I'd kill to know his Wonderlic score for example. It's not like he can't get threw his reads, he can. There's just times were it gets slow or he takes the wrong read because it was safer. Seen some people say they think it was the Ohio State offense and how they placed a premium on not throwing interceptions. Here's the thing with Mac Jones, he had the best talent and coaching in College. Everything was so easy for him. He didn't have games with his guys not wide open, where he was under constant pressure or when they couldn't dominate the game running the football. I don't know how you scout a QB that has it that easy. His top two WRs are projected top 15 picks and his RB is also projected to go in the first. Bama has like 8-9 guys that could go in the top two rounds. Heck last year Mac Jones played with another first round WR. So he's had more weapons and talent than any other QB in College over the last two years and it's not even close. You wanna watch two game tapes that will blow your mind, go watch Fields versus Clemson and then Bama. A bunch of QBs can get better at the advanced stuff, if they are smart enough.
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Post by texs31 on Apr 8, 2021 16:08:34 GMT -5
Based on a piece with Chris Simms, BB has gone against his scouts on multiple occasions. Successfully with Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins. Unsuccessfully with N'Keal Harry.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 8, 2021 16:55:34 GMT -5
And to be clear, I'm not suggesting you're wrong for thinking Jones isn't worth the 3rd pick. I'm suggesting that your reasoning for the "rumor" being bogus is based on information that lacks the most important element. The rumors, while potentially being a smokescreen, at least suggest the possibility Shanahan is thinking this way and that is what matters. That being said, I did come up with a stretch of an explanation for why a smokescreen might have value for SF. Maybe Shanahan knows/feels that BB is deciding between Mac Jones and a trade for Jimmy G. BB might be more willing to meet the Niners price if he thinks his other option isn't really an option. Yes, it's a stretch. What rumors are coming from the 49ers? They made the big trade and every expect gave their opinion on who they were moving up for. Everything I've seen is people taking guesses based off of fit or who they think they will pick. Are there rumors that cite 49er sources? Everything I've seen says the 49ers haven't said or leaked anything about who they are taking. This isn't the Jets waited on Wilson's physical before trading Darnold, that was from a Jets source, not an opinion. So I don't see this as some sort of smoke screen from the 49ers because I haven't seen anything that's been linked to them. Rumors are a dime a dozen this time of year. Some are legit and some are just opinions. This 49ers one is being treated like legit, yet everything I read is just opinion based. Now maybe it's just some big smokescreen and trying to leverage Jimmy makes sense.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 8, 2021 17:37:34 GMT -5
A few things...
I’m not a scout - i did a mock draft weeks ago before Mac climbed up boards and I played the game on the site. That same site now has him ranked so sometimes you can get him at 15 and sometimes you can’t. I was saying I’d take Mac Jones at 15 when people were saying he was a second rounder. I like him more than most - i said Fields was going to be a bust months ago - but I’m not a scout so I wouldn’t put a lot stock in me.
Some rumors come from nowhere but Jones is now a consensus top half of the first round pick so it’s really not hard to see teams ranking him above Fields and Lance. I mean Lance is a division1 AA guy who’s barely played.
Not sure what a top 3 talent means. Also it’s irrelevant what we think. We are just acknowledging it’s entirely possible multiple teams value Jones as the 3rd best QB.
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Post by texs31 on Apr 8, 2021 17:55:35 GMT -5
So, again, Matt Miller (formerly of Bleacher Report now on his own) sites sources. Breer supposedly did as well.
I would also suggest that this isnt the type of thing Schefter guesses on. While he hasn't used the word source, the man's whole job is based on credibility. I cant imagine a scenario where he throws it out there without some substance (even if it's the tupe of intentional leaks that we often see).
Let me ask you. How are you so sure that none of this is coming from the Niners?
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,874
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Post by cdj on Apr 8, 2021 18:21:36 GMT -5
Based on a piece with Chris Simms, BB has gone against his scouts on multiple occasions. Successfully with Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins. Unsuccessfully with N'Keal Harry. I thought I had read that Caserio had liked Harry. I could be mistaken tho It does seem like he’s deferring more to the scouts this year so hopefully we have a great draft
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 8, 2021 18:31:37 GMT -5
The biggest mistake teams make in trying to get that QB that makes it all happen is over drafting and giving up years of top picks to move up. Just look at the history of top pick QBs and it is easy to correlate that to a failing team. The list is long so I won't bother but the easy answer is don't reach and don't goo all in. Build a great team and the dominoes will fall.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 8, 2021 18:37:32 GMT -5
This won’t happen - Collins could go 15 to the Patriots and it wouldn’t shock me, but he fell here so I traded back up for him. I wanted to use this to make a point I’ve been thinking about. I feel like tackle is a pretty big need. Onwenu, played well there but he played amazing at guard. Having to move him off guard won’t be ideal. He could literally be one of the best guards in football next year.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 8, 2021 18:37:52 GMT -5
So, again, Matt Miller (formerly of Bleacher Report now on his own) sites sources. Breer supposedly did as well. I would also suggest that this isnt the type of thing Schefter guesses on. While he hasn't used the word source, the man's whole job is based on credibility. I cant imagine a scenario where he throws it out there without some substance (even if it's the tupe of intentional leaks that we often see). Let me ask you. How are you so sure that none of this is coming from the Niners? The best I see from Matt Miller is talking to an EX 49er employee who says he thinks it's 95% Mac Jones. The 49ers are known as a club that doesn't leak anything and they just had Fields schedule a second pro day so they could see him in person. They didn't ask Nick Saban a single thing about Mac Jones at his pro day. Let me ask you this, why leak information that you won't back up? If you're taking Mac Jones and want to leak that, then leak it. What's the benefit of leaking information, yet doing it in a way that isn't 100%?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 8, 2021 18:43:21 GMT -5
This won’t happen - Collins could go 15 to the Patriots and it wouldn’t shock me, but he fell here so I traded back up for him. I wanted to use this to make a point I’ve been thinking about. I feel like tackle is a pretty big need. Onwenu, played well there but he played amazing at guard. Having to move him off guard won’t be ideal. He could literally be one of the best guards in football next year. So you're moving on from Wynn?
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Post by texs31 on Apr 8, 2021 18:59:54 GMT -5
So, again, Matt Miller (formerly of Bleacher Report now on his own) sites sources. Breer supposedly did as well. I would also suggest that this isnt the type of thing Schefter guesses on. While he hasn't used the word source, the man's whole job is based on credibility. I cant imagine a scenario where he throws it out there without some substance (even if it's the tupe of intentional leaks that we often see). Let me ask you. How are you so sure that none of this is coming from the Niners? The best I see from Matt Miller is talking to an EX 49er employee who says he thinks it's 95% Mac Jones. The 49ers are known as a club that doesn't leak anything and they just had Fields schedule a second pro day so they could see him in person. They didn't ask Nick Saban a single thing about Mac Jones at his pro day. Let me ask you this, why leak information that you won't back up? If you're taking Mac Jones and want to leak that, then leak it. What's the benefit of leaking information, yet doing it in a way that isn't 100%? You're assuming the leak was intentional.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 8, 2021 19:21:18 GMT -5
This won’t happen - Collins could go 15 to the Patriots and it wouldn’t shock me, but he fell here so I traded back up for him. I wanted to use this to make a point I’ve been thinking about. I feel like tackle is a pretty big need. Onwenu, played well there but he played amazing at guard. Having to move him off guard won’t be ideal. He could literally be one of the best guards in football next year. So you're moving on from Wynn? Brown is also a free agent and I’m not paying him a big contract over multi years. I’m considering moving on from Wynn if he can’t get thru a year healthy and gets paid huge dollars. But basically,
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 8, 2021 23:08:44 GMT -5
The best I see from Matt Miller is talking to an EX 49er employee who says he thinks it's 95% Mac Jones. The 49ers are known as a club that doesn't leak anything and they just had Fields schedule a second pro day so they could see him in person. They didn't ask Nick Saban a single thing about Mac Jones at his pro day. Let me ask you this, why leak information that you won't back up? If you're taking Mac Jones and want to leak that, then leak it. What's the benefit of leaking information, yet doing it in a way that isn't 100%? You're assuming the leak was intentional. So a team with a long history of not leaking stuff, makes it biggest move in years and the leak is by accident? This just keeps getting crazier if you believe that.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,874
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Post by cdj on Apr 8, 2021 23:27:36 GMT -5
They’re totally taking Zaven Collins at 15
I wouldn’t despise it
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 8, 2021 23:29:14 GMT -5
So you're moving on from Wynn? Brown is also a free agent and I’m not paying him a big contract over multi years. I’m considering moving on from Wynn if he can’t get thru a year healthy and gets paid huge dollars. But basically, Like you said before, you're not taking a RT at 15, that's not good value. Wynn is moving in the right direction lol. I just feel he deserves another year, given that when he's healthy he's darn good. If you want to look a year out, I still see bigger needs. You have to be considering CB right? LB? WR?
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 9, 2021 5:04:47 GMT -5
Brown is also a free agent and I’m not paying him a big contract over multi years. I’m considering moving on from Wynn if he can’t get thru a year healthy and gets paid huge dollars. But basically, Like you said before, you're not taking a RT at 15, that's not good value. Wynn is moving in the right direction lol. I just feel he deserves another year, given that when he's healthy he's darn good. If you want to look a year out, I still see bigger needs. You have to be considering CB right? LB? WR? Yea, I’m looking at CB and LB, definitely and if a top 3 receiver falls I’ll look at him too, but this is how this particular board fell. Darrisaw isn’t simply a right tackle - he’s a great tackle prospect at left tackle. The point was an exercise in discussing the tackle position in general. It’s a legit need, in my opinion, up there with corner and linebacker. Wynn deserves nothing at this point. Of course he’s getting another year but I’m not waiting on him, plus we know they need at least one new starting tackle next year but it could be 2. Leaving yourself in a spot where you need to replace 2 tackles would be awful. I’m not saying you have to take one in the first. However, if the board falls a certain way, I won’t hate taking a top tackle.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 9, 2021 6:39:05 GMT -5
Pretty sure statistically tackle is the safest position to draft and it isn't very close. Unless of course you are unlucky and injuries come in to play, aka Wynn.
With the statements Brown has made about loving NE I wouldn't be surprised if he plays great and gets a good enough contract offer from BB to sign LT deal. That would be ideal given his age and Pro Bowl level of play. He has already runoff for the money once, I don't think he will do it again. One can hope. We can also hope for a healthy Wynn for once.
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Post by texs31 on Apr 9, 2021 8:32:55 GMT -5
You're assuming the leak was intentional. So a team with a long history of not leaking stuff, makes it biggest move in years and the leak is by accident? This just keeps getting crazier if you believe that. What history? How long has their management been in place? Lynch has only been the GM for 4 years? Also, it's not me who is saying there are leaks. The likes of Breer and others are talking about the leaks (whether it be this pick or how they have or will handle Jimmy G). The rabbit holes I get into just bc I'm willing to consider other possibilities and your refusal to consider anything that doesn't support your opinion is what is crazy. This has been a trend ever since we've started interacting. If you read it or hear it AND it supports your opinion, we're to take it as law. If it doesn't, it's crazy and people are just guessing. Why I continue to fall for it is also pretty crazy.
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