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Patriots 2021 Offseason Thread
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 24, 2021 5:22:49 GMT -5
The thing I've noticed from the draft simulators is that the number of picks between their 2nd and 3rd pick is brutal. It could just be me being a complete novice, but it feels like an early 3rd round pick would make a huge difference in how this draft plays out. that is what got me looking at the trade-down strategy. There is quality talent out into the 80s or 90s. I played nearly 100 PFN sims now and trade-down dominates. Instead of getting 2-3 shots at a quality player, you can usually get 7-8 picks in the 45-100 range simply by trading that first pick up in small increments and trading out of picks above 100. Below is a description of PFN's trade algo in case you are wondering. "Trade Value Chart We use the Rich Hill Model Trade Chart, a modernized version of the original Jimmy Johnson Trade Chart. The chart, hosted by DraftTek.com, can be found here, and you can reference it when trying to trade up or down the board. Please note that not only have we placed a higher premium on the top 10 picks in the draft (meaning it will cost a bit more than what the trade chart suggests). But, we have also configured the algorithm so that if a team you want to trade with is eyeing a certain player in that particular simulation, it will cost more than what the trade chart suggests is a fair price . This is done to maintain PFN's 2021 NFL Mock Draft Simulator's unpredictability, ensuring that you get a different experience each time you press the play button." www.profootballnetwork.com/mockdraft/I have been looking for QB, WR, CB, OT, S guys I frequently draft, by where PFN has them ranked: 20s - using tradedown I almost never get guys that PFN has ranked in the 20s Creed Humphrey C Oklahoma - he is the only one who has fallen enough so I can get him with pick in the 40s 30s - I rarely get any of these guys either Caleb Farley CB VA Tech Ben Mason FB/TE Michigan It’s unrealistic for the Patriots or any team to make enough trades in increments to end up with that many picks in that range. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 24, 2021 5:27:23 GMT -5
Joe Tryon feels like a Patriot type player and pick. He’s risen, I can see him as a late first so if they trade down, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him or perhaps in the second round if he’s still there.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 24, 2021 7:22:24 GMT -5
The thing I've noticed from the draft simulators is that the number of picks between their 2nd and 3rd pick is brutal. It could just be me being a complete novice, but it feels like an early 3rd round pick would make a huge difference in how this draft plays out. Them losing that pick for that idiot filming in cincy is big This is obviously pure speculation but does anybody working for the Patriots do anything without BB's approval if not instruction? Seems to me that he runs a very tight ship. But yeah that hurts. |
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 24, 2021 7:26:37 GMT -5
Classic case of mortgaging the future for the present, stupid considering what you mentioned about their need for affordable players. Will they even be able to afford him on a new deal? Not sure without studying their contracts with other players but they will have a hard time competing with that top heavy cap structure. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 24, 2021 7:52:16 GMT -5
What do you see Collins as? It's mixed 3-4/4-3 ILB, 4-3 OLB or 3-4 OLB? Overall his speed isn't horrible, yet it's not close to elite either. This is all context, Collins at 15, when he's slower then both Jamie Collins and Hightower. A bunch of people see his best current skill as pass coverage, yet no 3 cone time. Which scares the crap out me. I like him, just not at 15 and frankly I want a faster guy. I'd rather a smaller LB with sideline to sideline speed. Dylan Moses didn't run, yet was projected in the high 4.4s, Jamin Davis put up massive numbers. Bill has done this complete change on what his 3-4 is for modern day football. I think the final piece is a big time speed guy at ILB. Usually that means smaller, yet Paron's gives you both. Watch Bill take him, he loves big LBers. I just wouldn't do Collins at 15, I'd trade down. If you miss him, I just move onto my other targets. He's different than Hightower but that's probably very similar to his eventual role. Hightower got a 4.62 at his combine, but that's 97.8% at his size so he set a really high standard. With Collins, his coverage grades were so off the charts that even if he's not actually *that* good he's still very likely an asset in that capacity from day one. I've really seen mostly highlights but he flashes in those clips. I think a player like Hightower or Collins will still be utilized by Bill going forward, you can only put so many Adrian Phillips/Kyle Dugger types in the box, and having one big body in the middle helps. The appeal with Collins is to avoid Belichick plugging in more Elandon Roberts/Bentley types in that role once Hightower is gone. Parsons would be a bit limited by that role given his skill set, I see Parsons fit being closer to a mix of roles held by Jamie Collins and Van Noy depending on the situation. Hopefully he'll be rushing off the edge in most passing situations, he's just too good not to. Of course, Hightower could rush/blitz too and so can Zaven, just not at the level of Parsons. Collins is not one of my top 15 prospects, but he's top 22, and a couple others probably aren't ideal system fits. Collins wouldn't be a favorite pick at #15, but there are worse possibilities in that range imo. I'm cool with trading back assuming they get value. Parsons would be a home run if they've cleared his character concerns, but ultimately I think he'll be off the board by #15. If you say so, I'm slightly skeptical that's true, maybe because most faster guys are slightly smaller. I mean look at the list I posted, there are many guys faster. It's like saying you want Harry over a smaller faster WR. The days of teams just running it all day long are gone, the NFL is changing. I want speed to match up with that, not good weight to speed ratios. You can always find guys like Bentley and Robert's late in the draft. The idea of big slower LBers is from the days where running dominated the game. There's a huge group of players bigger than safeties and smaller than the biggest ILB in football, which is what I want. We play safeties because we don't have fast LBers and it kills is when they want to run. If you see Collins as more of an OLB that could change things, I see him as an ILB. I disagree on Parsons, he's so special because there's nothing he can't do. He’s a much better Hightower, just remember Hightower went 25th in the draft. That's the point where I start liking Collins, yet frankly I'd likely still take a faster LBer. I don't care what he did at Tulsa versus that level of talent, 4.67 is slow to match up with today's NFL weapons, most TEs are faster than that. Don't let me get you down, if you love Collins pound the table for him. Not my cup of tea though and I look around and just see better athletes everywhere. Look at Paye, look at Bateman and Marshall Jr., all guys projected mid to late first. The small WRs that are unreal athletes. I don't see LBers as a massive need, it's Parsons is just a beast. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 24, 2021 8:00:45 GMT -5
Them losing that pick for that idiot filming in cincy is big This is obviously pure speculation but does anybody working for the Patriots do anything without BB's approval if not instruction? Seems to me that he runs a very tight ship. But yeah that hurts. Bill controls the team, there's tons of Patriots personal that Bill has nothing to do with. The video was part of a series for Patriots.com and an outside film crew. You really think Bill's involved in the content on Patriots.com? You really think he'd be that stupid? It was literally nothing, type of crap other teams do, yet they likely just get a fine. |
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Post by mobaz on Apr 24, 2021 9:05:31 GMT -5
I'm gonna make my prediction: Pats move up to 8-12 range if one of Lance/Fields falls, or otherwise trade down from 15 and from 46 to fill in some gaps in the sweet spot of the draft. In latter scenario they end up with a top 5/7 CB, a top 10/12 WR, and a high upside OT or guard in the top 3 rounds.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 24, 2021 10:16:46 GMT -5
This is obviously pure speculation but does anybody working for the Patriots do anything without BB's approval if not instruction? Seems to me that he runs a very tight ship. But yeah that hurts. Bill controls the team, there's tons of Patriots personal that Bill has nothing to do with. The video was part of a series for Patriots.com and an outside film crew. You really think Bill's involved in the content on Patriots.com? You really think he'd be that stupid? It was literally nothing, type of crap other teams do, yet they likely just get a fine. OK, like I said pure speculation. But answer me this; why were they doing it in the first place? |
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Post by rasimon on Apr 24, 2021 10:21:37 GMT -5
My contention has been that the Pats should trade down, trade down, trade down. As I played the PFF sim and then the PFN sim, I became more convinced that was the right strategy. But here is why: PFN uses Rich Hill model with some adjustments to figure out which trades to accept. www.profootballnetwork.com/mockdraft/ at the bottom of the page click on How To Use The PFN Mock Draft Simulator "Trade Value Chart - We use the Rich Hill Model Trade Chart, a modernized version of the original Jimmy Johnson Trade Chart. The chart, hosted by DraftTek.com, can be found here, and you can reference it when trying to trade up or down the board. Please note that not only have we placed a higher premium on the top 10 picks in the draft (meaning it will cost a bit more than what the trade chart suggests). But, we have also configured the algorithm so that if a team you want to trade with is eyeing a certain player in that particular simulation, it will cost more than what the trade chart suggests is a fair price. This is done to maintain PFN's 2021 NFL Mock Draft Simulator's unpredictability, ensuring that you get a different experience each time you press the play button." The Rich Hill (RH) model fits a curve to trades actually executed in the real world to see how teams are valuing various positions in the draft www.patspulpit.com/2018/4/21/17256758/2018-nfl-draft-value-chart-rich-hillwww.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp?RequestTeam=neRH is an estimate how teams are valuing picks, but how much value do the picks actually have ex-post? Stuart Chase at Football Perspective tracked the AV of each draft pick for the first 5 years after draft. It looks like he is using 30+ years of data to fit his curve. He then created a calculator where you can examine hypothetical trades. www.footballperspective.com/draft-pick-value-calculator/www.footballperspective.com/introducing-the-nfl-draft-pick-value-calculator/The upshot is that high picks are way over-valued relative to lower picks. But lets play a PFN and compare the value of trades offered using both the Rich Hill trade value scale (RH) and the Stuart Chase's Draft Pick Value Calculator (DPVC). I played for the Pats. First Pick = 15 Gone were: Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Sewell, Pitts, Waddle, Chase, Darrisaw, Field, Surtain, Smith, Horn, Jones, Parsons I received one trade offer Trade offer: Pats give up pick 15 for picks 20 and 52 - RH says the (scaled) trade value of pick 15 is 315 and the scaled trade value of picks 20+52 is 269+109=378. So PFN is offering me a 20% premium in trade value.
- DPVC says the expected AV of pick 15 is 17.4 and the expected AV of picks 20+52 is 15.5+9.4=24.9. So PFN is offering me a 43% premium in expected AV.
- this seems obvious that I should accept the trade offer. Ok lets accept the offer.
Next Pick = 20 Gone were: Slater, Tucker, Koramoah, Barmore, Newsome I received three trade offers Trade offer 1: Pats give up pick 20 for picks 37, 70, and IND 2nd in 2022 - RH says the (scaled) trade value of pick 20 is 269 and the scaled trade value of picks 37+70 is 162+70=232. IND 2nd in 2022 is somewhat speculative because we don't know exactly where that pick will be. Hill says future picks are value one round lower than this years picks, so a 2nd rounder in 2022 will be valued like a 3rd rounder in 2021. So the IND 2nd will be about 50 (midpoint of round 3 is pick 85). So PFN is offering 232+50 = 282. PFN is offering me premium of 5% in trade value.
- DPVC says the expected AV of pick 20 is 15.5 and the expected AV of picks 37+70+85 is 11.6+7.5+6.3=25.4. So PFN is offering me a 64% premium in expected AV.
Trade offer 2: Pats give up picks 20 and 177 for picks 38, 69, and CIN 2nd in 2022 - RH says the (scaled) trade value of picks 20+177 is 269+7=276 and the scaled trade value of picks 38+69+estimated 85 is 157+71+50=278 PFN is offering me basically an even trade in terms of trade value.
- DPVC says the expected AV of picks 20 and 177 is 15.5+1.6=17.1 and the expected AV of picks 38+69+estimated 85 is 11.4+7.6+6.3=25.3. So PFN is offering me a 48% premium in expected AV.
Trade offer 3: Pats give up pick 20 for picks 36, 50, and MIA 5th in 2022 - RH says the (scaled) trade value of pick 20 is 269 and the scaled trade value of picks 36+50+estimated 207 is 166+115+3=284 PFN is offering me a 5% premium in terms of trade value.
- DPVC says the expected AV of pick 20 is 15.5 and the expected AV of picks 36+50+estimated 207 is 11.8+9.7+0.6=22.1. So PFN is offering me a 43% premium in expected AV.
We should again definitely trade down and it looks like the first offer is probably the best. However, it depends where we estimate those 2nd round picks will actually be in terms of draft pick number. I assumed both would be at the midpoint of the round. If we instead used IND and CIN's 2021 draft positions to estimate their 2022 draft positions the results would change a bit. Trade offer 1 is almost unchanged but trade offer 2 changes a bit Trade offer 2:(revised) Pats give up picks 20 and 177 for picks 38, 69, and CIN 2nd in 2022 - RH says the (scaled) trade value of picks 20+177 is 269+7=276 and the scaled trade value of picks 38+69+estimated 70 is 157+71+70=298 PFN is offering me an 8% premium in terms of trade value.
- DPVC says the expected AV of picks 20 and 177 is 15.5+1.6=17.1 and the expected AV of picks 38+69+estimated 70 is 11.4+7.6+7.5=26.5. So PFN is offering me a 55% premium in expected AV.
So trade offer 1 is still the best. I would have guessed offer 3 was the best. ok lets go with offer 1. I won't bore you with playing out the rest of the sim. But this is why the trade down strategy appears to dominate. There is a significant difference between trade value and expected future AV. In math terms (Trade Value of High Draft Slot / Trade Value of Low Draft Slot) >> (Expected AV of High Draft Slot / Expected AV of Low Draft Slot). Saying it a different way, if you construct trades where each side gets an equal RH Trade Value, then on average the side who trades down will be a big winner in terms of Expected AV. Of course that does not reference any particular trade. Maybe in some situations trading up gets you some really special player who exactly fits your needs. But on average, if you trade up, you will give away a lot of Expected AV. |
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Post by beasleyrockah on Apr 24, 2021 10:26:21 GMT -5
If you say so, I'm slightly skeptical that's true, maybe because most faster guys are slightly smaller. I mean look at the list I posted, there are many guys faster. It's like saying you want Harry over a smaller faster WR. The days of teams just running it all day long are gone, the NFL is changing. I want speed to match up with that, not good weight to speed ratios. You can always find guys like Bentley and Robert's late in the draft. The idea of big slower LBers is from the days where running dominated the game. There's a huge group of players bigger than safeties and smaller than the biggest ILB in football, which is what I want. We play safeties because we don't have fast LBers and it kills is when they want to run. If you see Collins as more of an OLB that could change things, I see him as an ILB. I disagree on Parsons, he's so special because there's nothing he can't do. He’s a much better Hightower, just remember Hightower went 25th in the draft. That's the point where I start liking Collins, yet frankly I'd likely still take a faster LBer. I don't care what he did at Tulsa versus that level of talent, 4.67 is slow to match up with today's NFL weapons, most TEs are faster than that. Don't let me get you down, if you love Collins pound the table for him. Not my cup of tea though and I look around and just see better athletes everywhere. Look at Paye, look at Bateman and Marshall Jr., all guys projected mid to late first. The small WRs that are unreal athletes. I don't see LBers as a massive need, it's Parsons is just a beast. Speed is important but you don't simply draft the fastest players and have a track meet, it's much more nuanced than that. Plenty of WR's with speed have busted too, and plenty of WR's without elite speed have been pro bowlers. If Harry had elite releases instead of below average he'd be a more viable WR. As far as Collins, objectively speaking, RAS rates his 40 time in the "good" range, but you seem to be talking about him as a liability in that area when that doesn't feel accurate. He's certainly not Parsons, but few linebackers are, and Collins is still a good athlete in his own right. Plenty of LB's with elite speed aren't going to be able to do what the Pats are looking for. Collins isn't going to be the TE coverage chess piece, they have other guys for that, but he's certainly not going to be a liability in coverage in space either. Hightower went 25th, but if you redraft that draft he'd go higher, and the goal isn't to get the best players based on pre-draft rankings it's to get the best pros. Hightower has been an all time great Patriot, and the defense has always been much weaker without him. I've clearly said I don't consider Collins a top 15 prospect but still really like him as a fit here overall. There's a difference between liking a prospect in his projected range and pounding the table for him at #15. I'd do that for Surtain or Pitts or Fields, but those guys will likely be gone. I'd prefer other guys at 15, but I'd prefer Collins to say Barmore, so he's not the worst case realistic scenario at #15 either. If the Pats traded back from #15 and landed Collins in the 20s or if they traded up from #46 and landed him in the 30s I'd be very happy. I've also been pretty clear I consider Parsons a better prospect, but you seem to ignore the possibility that the Patriots won't consider Parsons a culture fit. Again, I know nothing about Parsons character to say either way, but some people have suggested it goes beyond the hazing scandal. Part of the reason the Patriots have a notoriously small draft board is the way they evaluate culture fits. Also, I believe it's more likely than not he'll be off the board before #15, and that's part of the conversation too. I'm also trying to protect in terms of how Belichick views fits/needs. For example, I love Owusu-Koramoah as a player, but I have a harder time seeing him as a Patriot given his size. You may want a bunch of speed LB's at the expense of size, but I doubt Belichick goes that route entirely. Last year they lacked his prototypical linebackers and their run defense was atrocious, and he's arguably overspent trying to improve the run defense this offseason. I think Bill will adjust his LB size standards a bit, but it'll be a more modest shift. I also don't think Bill will say *we need X position*, he'll look for the best value and system fit and draft accordingly. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 24, 2021 14:04:46 GMT -5
Bill controls the team, there's tons of Patriots personal that Bill has nothing to do with. The video was part of a series for Patriots.com and an outside film crew. You really think Bill's involved in the content on Patriots.com? You really think he'd be that stupid? It was literally nothing, type of crap other teams do, yet they likely just get a fine. OK, like I said pure speculation. But answer me this; why were they doing it in the first place? Go read the statement they put out, it isn't some secret. I already said, a piece for Patriots.com. The NFL cleared them, as in finding nothing that your hinting at. Which is saying something given deflate gate and Brady's punishment for nothing. Yet an independent video crew they hired broke the rules, given our history we lost a pick. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 24, 2021 14:51:01 GMT -5
My contention has been that the Pats should trade down, trade down, trade down. As I played the PFF sim and then the PFN sim, I became more convinced that was the right strategy. But here is why: PFN uses Rich Hill model with some adjustments to figure out which trades to accept. www.profootballnetwork.com/mockdraft/ at the bottom of the page click on How To Use The PFN Mock Draft Simulator "Trade Value Chart - We use the Rich Hill Model Trade Chart, a modernized version of the original Jimmy Johnson Trade Chart. The chart, hosted by DraftTek.com, can be found here, and you can reference it when trying to trade up or down the board. Please note that not only have we placed a higher premium on the top 10 picks in the draft (meaning it will cost a bit more than what the trade chart suggests). But, we have also configured the algorithm so that if a team you want to trade with is eyeing a certain player in that particular simulation, it will cost more than what the trade chart suggests is a fair price. This is done to maintain PFN's 2021 NFL Mock Draft Simulator's unpredictability, ensuring that you get a different experience each time you press the play button." The Rich Hill (RH) model fits a curve to trades actually executed in the real world to see how teams are valuing various positions in the draft www.patspulpit.com/2018/4/21/17256758/2018-nfl-draft-value-chart-rich-hillwww.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp?RequestTeam=neRH is an estimate how teams are valuing picks, but how much value do the picks actually have ex-post? Stuart Chase at Football Perspective tracked the AV of each draft pick for the first 5 years after draft. It looks like he is using 30+ years of data to fit his curve. He then created a calculator where you can examine hypothetical trades. www.footballperspective.com/draft-pick-value-calculator/www.footballperspective.com/introducing-the-nfl-draft-pick-value-calculator/The upshot is that high picks are way over-valued relative to lower picks. But lets play a PFN and compare the value of trades offered using both the Rich Hill trade value scale (RH) and the Stuart Chase's Draft Pick Value Calculator (DPVC). I played for the Pats. First Pick = 15 Gone were: Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Sewell, Pitts, Waddle, Chase, Darrisaw, Field, Surtain, Smith, Horn, Jones, Parsons I received one trade offer Trade offer: Pats give up pick 15 for picks 20 and 52 - RH says the (scaled) trade value of pick 15 is 315 and the scaled trade value of picks 20+52 is 269+109=378. So PFN is offering me a 20% premium in trade value.
- DPVC says the expected AV of pick 15 is 17.4 and the expected AV of picks 20+52 is 15.5+9.4=24.9. So PFN is offering me a 43% premium in expected AV.
- this seems obvious that I should accept the trade offer. Ok lets accept the offer.
Next Pick = 20 Gone were: Slater, Tucker, Koramoah, Barmore, Newsome I received three trade offers Trade offer 1: Pats give up pick 20 for picks 37, 70, and IND 2nd in 2022 - RH says the (scaled) trade value of pick 20 is 269 and the scaled trade value of picks 37+70 is 162+70=232. IND 2nd in 2022 is somewhat speculative because we don't know exactly where that pick will be. Hill says future picks are value one round lower than this years picks, so a 2nd rounder in 2022 will be valued like a 3rd rounder in 2021. So the IND 2nd will be about 50 (midpoint of round 3 is pick 85). So PFN is offering 232+50 = 282. PFN is offering me premium of 5% in trade value.
- DPVC says the expected AV of pick 20 is 15.5 and the expected AV of picks 37+70+85 is 11.6+7.5+6.3=25.4. So PFN is offering me a 64% premium in expected AV.
Trade offer 2: Pats give up picks 20 and 177 for picks 38, 69, and CIN 2nd in 2022 - RH says the (scaled) trade value of picks 20+177 is 269+7=276 and the scaled trade value of picks 38+69+estimated 85 is 157+71+50=278 PFN is offering me basically an even trade in terms of trade value.
- DPVC says the expected AV of picks 20 and 177 is 15.5+1.6=17.1 and the expected AV of picks 38+69+estimated 85 is 11.4+7.6+6.3=25.3. So PFN is offering me a 48% premium in expected AV.
Trade offer 3: Pats give up pick 20 for picks 36, 50, and MIA 5th in 2022 - RH says the (scaled) trade value of pick 20 is 269 and the scaled trade value of picks 36+50+estimated 207 is 166+115+3=284 PFN is offering me a 5% premium in terms of trade value.
- DPVC says the expected AV of pick 20 is 15.5 and the expected AV of picks 36+50+estimated 207 is 11.8+9.7+0.6=22.1. So PFN is offering me a 43% premium in expected AV.
We should again definitely trade down and it looks like the first offer is probably the best. However, it depends where we estimate those 2nd round picks will actually be in terms of draft pick number. I assumed both would be at the midpoint of the round. If we instead used IND and CIN's 2021 draft positions to estimate their 2022 draft positions the results would change a bit. Trade offer 1 is almost unchanged but trade offer 2 changes a bit Trade offer 2:(revised) Pats give up picks 20 and 177 for picks 38, 69, and CIN 2nd in 2022 - RH says the (scaled) trade value of picks 20+177 is 269+7=276 and the scaled trade value of picks 38+69+estimated 70 is 157+71+70=298 PFN is offering me an 8% premium in terms of trade value.
- DPVC says the expected AV of picks 20 and 177 is 15.5+1.6=17.1 and the expected AV of picks 38+69+estimated 70 is 11.4+7.6+7.5=26.5. So PFN is offering me a 55% premium in expected AV.
So trade offer 1 is still the best. I would have guessed offer 3 was the best. ok lets go with offer 1. I won't bore you with playing out the rest of the sim. But this is why the trade down strategy appears to dominate. There is a significant difference between trade value and expected future AV. In math terms (Trade Value of High Draft Slot / Trade Value of Low Draft Slot) >> (Expected AV of High Draft Slot / Expected AV of Low Draft Slot). Saying it a different way, if you construct trades where each side gets an equal RH Trade Value, then on average the side who trades down will be a big winner in terms of Expected AV. Of course that does not reference any particular trade. Maybe in some situations trading up gets you some really special player who exactly fits your needs. But on average, if you trade up, you will give away a lot of Expected AV. Most of the posters on this site have advanced knowledge of the NFL draft. You're talking to sport junkies that spend way too much time studying hundreds of prospects. This is a very informed group. That being said you're taking a mock simulator and exploiting it. You've moved closer to reality using the PFN one, yet you're still missing one crazy important piece. What you're talking about has never been done. Like in theory anyone of the PFN trades makes sense, they aren't crazy like PFF. Yet you overlook that you need four teams or however many trades your making to all love a certain player and make big offers. In reality you'll always get trade offers, they won't always be HR offers. Example PFN offers you tons of future picks, how many of those trades have been made in recent years? According to PFN you have 15 teams willing to trade future picks in crazy value deals, that doesn't match reality. Overall teams aren't stupid, they understand the value of the draft is the top 100. You can certainly get teams making stupid trades. You won't get teams making stupid trade after stupid trade. There's also limits, the team already has ten picks and a good roster. You can only have 90 players before cutdown day. You only get to keep 53 players, which is why teams will make stupid trades. It's crazy fun to do what you're doing, I've done the same thing a bunch of times. It won't happen though. Do you think the Patriots even have that many players with draft grades to pick in those spots? Remember they have maybe the smallest board of draftable players in the league. Do what you propose and Bills taking players like Onwenu in the 2nd and 3rd round versus the 6th round, which just makes no sense. Just go look at history, show me where a team ever turned the 15th pick into eight top 100 picks in a single draft. Then traded off all of their lower picks. I don't disagree with the trade down strategy, that's basically Bills overall draft strategy for the past 20 plus years. The draft is a crap shoot, the more picks the better. You just need to apply reality to a mock draft simulator, you just keep exploiting it. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 24, 2021 15:32:17 GMT -5
I’ve been using the Draft Network Mock lately, I like it more - paid $10 for a one month subscription to get me thru the draft. I like doing that and the PFN.
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Post by rasimon on Apr 24, 2021 15:36:48 GMT -5
Most of the posters on this site have advanced knowledge of the NFL draft. You're talking to sport junkies that spend way too much time studying hundreds of prospects. This is a very informed group. That being said you're taking a mock simulator and exploiting it. You've moved closer to reality using the PFN one, yet you're still missing one crazy important piece. What you're talking about has never been done. Like in theory anyone of the PFN trades makes sense, they aren't crazy like PFF. Yet you overlook that you need four teams or however many trades your making to all love a certain player and make big offers. In reality you'll always get trade offers, they won't always be HR offers. Example PFN offers you tons of future picks, how many of those trades have been made in recent years? According to PFN you have 15 teams willing to trade future picks in crazy value deals, that doesn't match reality. Overall teams aren't stupid, they understand the value of the draft is the top 100. You can certainly get teams making stupid trades. You won't get teams making stupid trade after stupid trade. There's also limits, the team already has ten picks and a good roster. You can only have 90 players before cutdown day. You only get to keep 53 players, which is why teams will make stupid trades. It's crazy fun to do what you're doing, I've done the same thing a bunch of times. It won't happen though. Do you think the Patriots even have that many players with draft grades to pick in those spots? Remember they have maybe the smallest board of draftable players in the league. Do what you propose and Bills taking players like Onwenu in the 2nd and 3rd round versus the 6th round, which just makes no sense. Just go look at history, show me where a team ever turned the 15th pick into eight top 100 picks in a single draft. Then traded off all of their lower picks. I don't disagree with the trade down strategy, that's basically Bills overall draft strategy for the past 20 plus years. The draft is a crap shoot, the more picks the better. You just need to apply reality to a mock draft simulator, you just keep exploiting it. They only need to add an additional 5 draft slots to get to 8 in the top 100. Looking at the last three years it appears each team on average is involved in 2 to 2.5 trades during the three-day draft window. That is on average. In 2018 the Pats were involved in 8 trades (below). I didn't check every teams so its possible someone was involved in more. 2018 draft www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2018/draft.htmApr 27, 2018: Patriots traded 2018 2nd round pick (43rd overall, Kerryon Johnson) to Lions for 2018 2nd round pick (51st overall subsequently traded, Anthony Miller) and 2018 4th round pick (117th overall subsequently traded, Jordan Whitehead) Apr 27, 2018: Patriots traded 2018 2nd round pick (51st overall, Anthony Miller) to Bears for 2018 4th round pick (105th overall subsequently traded, Antonio Callaway) and 2019 2nd round pick (56th overall subsequently traded, Mecole Hardman) Apr 27, 2018: Buccaneers traded 2018 2nd round pick (56th overall, Duke Dawson) to Patriots for 2018 2nd round pick (63rd overall, Carlton Davis) and 2018 4th round pick (117th overall, Jordan Whitehead) Apr 27, 2018: Patriots traded 2018 3rd round pick (95th overall, Tarvarius Moore) to 49ers for Trenton Brown and 2018 5th round pick (143rd overall, Ja'Whaun Bentley) Apr 28, 2018: Patriots traded 2018 4th round pick (105th overall, Antonio Callaway) to Browns for 2018 4th round pick (114th overall subsequently traded, Da'Shawn Hand) and 2018 6th round pick (178th overall, Christian Sam) Apr 28, 2018: Patriots traded 2018 4th round pick (114th overall, Da'Shawn Hand) to Lions for 2019 3rd round pick (73rd overall subsequently traded, David Montgomery) Apr 28, 2018: Patriots traded 2018 6th round pick (198th overall, Kahlil McKenzie) to Chiefs for 2018 7th round pick (233rd overall subsequently traded, Jordan Mailata) and 2018 7th round pick (243rd overall, Keion Crossen) Apr 28, 2018: Patriots traded 2018 7th round pick (233rd overall, Jordan Mailata) to Eagles for 2018 7th round pick (250th overall, Ryan Izzo) and 2019 7th round pick (239th overall subsequently traded, Dillon Mitchell) I agree with you on the cut-down, so may be there is additional value in concentrating one's talent in a small number of players. Maybe that is what the Rich Hill table is showing with the extreme trade values for the highest draft slots. 1 1000 2 717 3 514 4 491 5 468 10 366 25 230 50 115 100 36 150 13 200 4 250 1 Even so, assuming the calibration is correct, Hill says that based on the trades which have been made, a team should be willing to swap 9 #50s for one #1. That seems ridiculous. But it is apparently where the trade market is. In expected AV terms the ratio is a bit over 3:1. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 24, 2021 17:52:28 GMT -5
Where are the examples of a team taking a first round pick and turning it into six top 100 selections?
Bill makes a ton of trades, I don't recall anything like that.
I basically see Rich Hills draft guide as one for trading up for QBs. Wanna know the cost of doing that, use Hills chart. For everything else I use Jimmy Johnson's upgraded value chart. It does a great job with almost every trade yet those crazy QB ones.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 24, 2021 17:53:18 GMT -5
I’ve been using the Draft Network Mock lately, I like it more - paid $10 for a one month subscription to get me thru the draft. I like doing that and the PFN. What are the big differences? |
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 24, 2021 18:26:39 GMT -5
I’ve been using the Draft Network Mock lately, I like it more - paid $10 for a one month subscription to get me thru the draft. I like doing that and the PFN. What are the big differences? I wouldn’t say there are major differences - they both work pretty well but they have different player rankings. Like draft network, you can’t get Elijah Moore at 46 he’s ranked higher and often a first round pick, which is how I’ve seen a lot of mocks ranking him. Which sucks because I’d love to get him at 46. That being said Marshall can slip there sometimes - his ranking has been dropping - late injury concern maybe? They also have teams offer you trades when you aren’t on the clock, when it’s their pick which is kind of neat. Like any of them you can manipulate trades by doing a million but they are pretty decent about what’s fairly realistic. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 25, 2021 8:33:58 GMT -5
That's not surprising I have seven WRs that I'd consider in the first, Chase, Smith, Waddle,Bateman, Marshall, R. Moore and E. Moore. That doesn't included Toney which some mocks have going in the first. I have some pause with Rondale Moore given his injury and size, yet his talent is first round. That's followed up by another big group of 2nd and third round guys. With good depth that should last into the 5th round.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 25, 2021 9:28:25 GMT -5
They do not buy Mac Jones at 3 at all... he usually falls to the Pats at 15. They have Toney and Rondel Moore ranked differently than other sites. Moore is 45 and Toney 37 with Marshall at 40... they usually all get picked higher tho. Marshall had some medical red flags pop up - no idea what they are.
They have Dylan Moses ranked down at 136 and Walker Little down at 156... two guys I’d be happy to see the Pats get later if they really do fall down there.
I think this is going to be an weird draft over all.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 25, 2021 15:17:55 GMT -5
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Apr 26, 2021 8:22:14 GMT -5
Latest hub-bub is that the 49ers are still high on Mac Jones but Lance is in play at 3 as well. One analyst said 60% Jones 35% Lance probability.
Also the Patriots are talking about moving into the Top 10 for a falling Fields, per Pelissero.
This whole Fields thing seems so much like DeShaun Watson to me. He's been so picked apart about what he isn't that people forget how good he really is. I was fully convinced the Watson low throw velocity issue was a real thing. Turns out he played just as well as he did in college.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Apr 26, 2021 10:08:02 GMT -5
www.pff.com/news/draft-10-undervalued-2021-nfl-draft-prospectsSome down-draft sleepers from PFF, including cornerbacks and OL; I don't follow those prospects well but love the idea getting a future starter at both positions groups (as I indicated above, my highest priorities outside QB). Still don't get the love for Toney; that type of receiver fails like 90% of the time in the NFL. Tyreek Hill has ruined everyone's evaluations; and though character concerns contributed, Hill was taken in the 5th round, not Top 20. I also hate breakouts by Seniors. Definitely a believer in Breakout Age theory of receivers, especially high picks.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 26, 2021 10:36:50 GMT -5
Every player gets picked apart this time of year, I've seen people picking apart Lawrence, Fields actually has a medical condition that any team would need to study and think on.
I guess I'm just confused, like Fields hadn't been picked apart like Kyle Trask has. Everyone talks about Mac Jones magical season, yet Trask was right behind him and has gotten zero first round buzz. Trask dominated that Bama D and Fields struggled badly.
This is an epic QB class and the stuff they are saying about Fields is legit. It wouldn't stop me from drafting him, yet it's not made up crap either.
You ever sit back and think maybe some teams had some worries about Watson character? I'm kinda shocked that you keep using Watson as an example given what he's currently going through. People picked apart Mahomes because of his offense, didn't play under center, etc. QBs that drop are a mixed bag, look no further than Haskins.
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Post by mobaz on Apr 26, 2021 11:07:34 GMT -5
Every player gets picked apart this time of year, I've seen people picking apart Lawrence, Fields actually has a medical condition that any team would need to study and think on. I guess I'm just confused, like Fields hadn't been picked apart like Kyle Trask has. Everyone talks about Mac Jones magical season, yet Trask was right behind him and has gotten zero first round buzz. Trask dominated that Bama D and Fields struggled badly. This is an epic QB class and the stuff they are saying about Fields is legit. It wouldn't stop me from drafting him, yet it's not made up crap either. You ever sit back and think maybe some teams had some worries about Watson character? I'm kinda shocked that you keep using Watson as an example given what he's currently going through. People picked apart Mahomes because of his offense, didn't play under center, etc. QBs that drop are a mixed bag, look no further than Haskins. It's possible, but all accounts I remember up to when it became fully apparent he's a creep, Watson's character and leadership was better thought of than his skill. I guess the difference between Trask and Fields to me is that Trask was never thought of as a top pick; compared to this time last year his stock has only improved because of what he did on the field. He's now well into the 6th/7th QB and mid 2nd round convo, which I never heard at the start of the season. Fields meanwhile was presumptive #2, had a great season and then has lost cred since he stopped playing, due to nothing he's done now. Some additional intel on SF, from McShay: |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 26, 2021 11:09:24 GMT -5
www.pff.com/news/draft-10-undervalued-2021-nfl-draft-prospectsSome down-draft sleepers from PFF, including cornerbacks and OL; I don't follow those prospects well but love the idea getting a future starter at both positions groups (as I indicated above, my highest priorities outside QB). Still don't get the love for Toney; that type of receiver fails like 90% of the time in the NFL. Tyreek Hill has ruined everyone's evaluations; and though character concerns contributed, Hill was taken in the 5th round, not Top 20. I also hate breakouts by Seniors. Definitely a believer in Breakout Age theory of receivers, especially high picks. I have to laugh at Hainsey being the #5 ranked OT given what I saw on tape watching Book run for his life all year long. Yet his versatility is exactly the type of player Bill loves. Toney isn't Hill, that's a horrible comparison. He wasn't used that way in College, the two Moore's are much more like Hill. Toney just like that article says is all about YAC, not just using his speed to get open and make big plays. I worry about him, you worry about any receiver that's not a great route runner, yet he's kinda a different type of WR. He's not Dorsett, Patterson or that Baylor WR who's name eludes me. I'm not taking him in the first given this WR class. Yet it's not hard to envision him being a huge weapon in today's NFL in the right system. Look at Patterson drafted as an X WR and he was never that, yet look at what he did for the Patriots when used a different way. Toney is a slot WR in my book, not an X WR like Hill. If you draft him as an outside guy, you're going to be very disappointed. Grimes played the X for Florida. |
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