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Patriots 2021 Offseason Thread
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 26, 2021 11:31:19 GMT -5
Every player gets picked apart this time of year, I've seen people picking apart Lawrence, Fields actually has a medical condition that any team would need to study and think on. I guess I'm just confused, like Fields hadn't been picked apart like Kyle Trask has. Everyone talks about Mac Jones magical season, yet Trask was right behind him and has gotten zero first round buzz. Trask dominated that Bama D and Fields struggled badly. This is an epic QB class and the stuff they are saying about Fields is legit. It wouldn't stop me from drafting him, yet it's not made up crap either. You ever sit back and think maybe some teams had some worries about Watson character? I'm kinda shocked that you keep using Watson as an example given what he's currently going through. People picked apart Mahomes because of his offense, didn't play under center, etc. QBs that drop are a mixed bag, look no further than Haskins. It's possible, but all accounts I remember up to when it became fully apparent he's a creep, Watson's character and leadership was better thought of than his skill. I guess the difference between Trask and Fields to me is that Trask was never thought of as a top pick; compared to this time last year his stock has only improved because of what he did on the field. He's now well into the 6th/7th QB and mid 2nd round convo, which I never heard at the start of the season. Fields meanwhile was presumptive #2, had a great season and then has lost cred since he stopped playing, due to nothing he's done now. Some additional intel on SF, from McShay: Yet Burrows and Wilson came out of no where to go top two. I know why Trask isn't a first rounder, because he's not a great athlete. People are focusing on what he can't do versus what he has done and what he can do. You wouldn't known that Tom Brady just won another superbowl given the way scouts look at QBs. Just remember NFL GMs mess up just as many QB picks as they get right. I find it hard to believe there were no red flags with Watson. Like he just wakes up one day and becomes a different person. Maybe that's what happened or maybe people just haven't highlighted them. I don't remember tons of stuff about Dwayne Haskins before he fell in the draft, it was a rather shocking draft day fall. Yet looking back now it makes perfect sense. Look at the Payton Manning crap that comes out decades later.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 26, 2021 11:46:20 GMT -5
It's looking more like either the Patriots trade up to grab Justin Fields, or the Pats grab Mac Jones if he's still around at 15 or the Pats grab a top notch receiver like Smith at 15 if both Fields and Jones are gone and grab Trask in a lower round to QB.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 26, 2021 14:36:45 GMT -5
I don't know about that, the Todd McShay piece from today says the Patriots trade talks are much more about trading down then up. Which Frankly makes sense given this draft.
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Post by GyIantosca on Apr 26, 2021 15:14:21 GMT -5
See this happens every year to me with the Pats draft I get the fever and this year its the 15th pick wow!. But I hope with the free agency they had the draft is just as exciting. All the other years Bill takes the fun out of the draft.
I feel Bill devaules the picks, based on his ability to find un drafted starters. Especially when he found Malcom Butler,a starting corner undrafted. He feels he can work the board as he sees fit and it bite him back the last few years. Just a theory.
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Post by texs31 on Apr 26, 2021 15:16:19 GMT -5
"Two separate sources within the league (not inside the Patriots organization) said New England is more likely to move back than up based on pre-draft conversations."
McShay's comments that were alluded to above
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 26, 2021 15:21:00 GMT -5
It's looking more like either the Patriots trade up to grab Justin Fields, or the Pats grab Mac Jones if he's still around at 15 or the Pats grab a top notch receiver like Smith at 15 if both Fields and Jones are gone and grab Trask in a lower round to QB. I get why they may do it for the right player, but I really hate the idea of them trading up. Most trade scenarios include the 2nd round pick as well, so if they do trade up it will be their only pick in the top 95. Even if it is for a QB, that's a lot of draft eggs in one basket. Sounds like they like Fields a lot, enough to potentially trade up for him, but then again there can be misinformation being spread.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,877
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Post by cdj on Apr 26, 2021 16:41:16 GMT -5
I wouldn’t put any stock into any reports this time of year. It’s silly season and most of the reports are likely just smokescreens
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Post by congusgambler33 on Apr 26, 2021 18:01:36 GMT -5
All I know is that Bill has been notorious in his trading down for quantity except that he made several moves in the free agent period to justify standing pat and choosing Micah Parsons (if he is still there).For him to trade up has not been his style. My guess is he will either stand pat or trade down.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 26, 2021 18:58:24 GMT -5
See this happens every year to me with the Pats draft I get the fever and this year its the 15th pick wow!. But I hope with the free agency they had the draft is just as exciting. All the other years Bill takes the fun out of the draft. I feel Bill devaules the picks, based on his ability to find un drafted starters. Especially when he found Malcom Butler,a starting corner undrafted. He feels he can work the board as he sees fit and it bite him back the last few years. Just a theory. He just sticks to his values, if he doesn't have any players graded as good enough at pick 15, he'll trade down. The good thing about being at 15, is a guy could fall or even after you trade back your still likely in the 20s, not 40s like some years. I'd be really surprised if he trades out of the first round.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Apr 26, 2021 19:18:16 GMT -5
All I know is that Bill has been notorious in his trading down for quantity except that he made several moves in the free agent period to justify standing pat and choosing Micah Parsons (if he is still there).For him to trade up has not been his style. My guess is he will either stand pat or trade down. All I know is that Bill has been notorious in his drafting of safeties with a sixth round grade in the second round.
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Post by texs31 on Apr 26, 2021 19:31:53 GMT -5
See this happens every year to me with the Pats draft I get the fever and this year its the 15th pick wow!. But I hope with the free agency they had the draft is just as exciting. All the other years Bill takes the fun out of the draft. I feel Bill devaules the picks, based on his ability to find un drafted starters. Especially when he found Malcom Butler,a starting corner undrafted. He feels he can work the board as he sees fit and it bite him back the last few years. Just a theory. He just sticks to his values, if he doesn't have any players graded as good enough at pick 15, he'll trade down. The good thing about being at 15, is a guy could fall or even after you trade back your still likely in the 20s, not 40s like some years. I'd be really surprised if he trades out of the first round. Or multiple players with similar grades (read that somewhere but also pasees the logic test).
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 27, 2021 5:53:42 GMT -5
I feel like it’s important to note that Watson can be all the good things people said and a creep all at once. He’s a person, we are complicated. He can be a great leader, a great teammate, philanthropic, great in the community and have this other dark part of his life that’s either pure evil or something lessor that was a fetish that entitlement or whatever else caused to spiral out of control. People don’t fit into boxes or categories nearly, but we try to do it because it’s easier for us.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Apr 27, 2021 6:51:52 GMT -5
Many times I've joked about staying up late to watch the Patriots trade out of the first round and then that's exactly what happens. I'm becoming more convinced that they could trade up, and well under the right circumstances to get a QB. I think we have to throw normal BB draft habits out the window because this is the post-Brady era. Pretty much our entire sample size of BB drafts is with Tom Terrific as the QB, but the times they do a change.
What I don't think Bill will do is trade up just for the sake of getting a QB, I suspect they are in on a guy and won't take Jones over Fields, or whoever just to get a QB. And just as I'm writing this my mind is convincing me that we could just as likely trade back in the first round for more picks and go Trask/Mond/Newman in the 2nd-4th round.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 27, 2021 7:05:13 GMT -5
All I know is that Bill has been notorious in his trading down for quantity except that he made several moves in the free agent period to justify standing pat and choosing Micah Parsons (if he is still there).For him to trade up has not been his style. My guess is he will either stand pat or trade down. I wouldn't be surprised if he moved up a few spots to take Parsons if he drops and the Qb's are all gone. Once the Qb's are gone I think the cost to move up will go down as there is always a premium on them. I think Parsons is going to be that good that it's worth an extra pick to go up. At what point does it make sense to bid high in free agency on a veteran QB that has proven his value rather than paying the cost in draft capitol to get one that has a good chance of being a bust? I know in the past the good ones didn't hit the market all that often but that has been changing recently. This is something I have always wondered from afar as the Pats have been all set for so long but the strategy of trying to get THAT QB via the draft seems to be what has held so many teams back for years. They spend top picks on QB's yr after yr that don't pan out and are relegated to losing seasons. It used to be a lot worse when they paid those guys big bucks on top of the top picks, teams were doomed by the likes of Jamarcus Russell.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 27, 2021 7:22:06 GMT -5
I feel like it’s important to note that Watson can be all the good things people said and a creep all at once. He’s a person, we are complicated. He can be a great leader, a great teammate, philanthropic, great in the community and have this other dark part of his life that’s either pure evil or something lessor that was a fetish that entitlement or whatever else caused to spiral out of control. People don’t fit into boxes or categories nearly, but we try to do it because it’s easier for us. This is not meant to justify bad behavior but take this into consideration. I have heard player analysts talk about how often a top college QB, like many celebrities, can get some action multiple times a day if they want. These guys are accustomed to women throwing themselves at them constantly, thus leading them to think a bit differently about getting some action. Not to disparage massage therapists but I would bet that with minimal flirting he has been able to get what he wants frequently. One of the women he flew in from another city and rented her a suite, that to me is already planting seeds. Not that any of this is ok but he lives in a different world than the rest of us and sex doesn't mean the same to everyone. How many women did Wilt say he slept with? 15,000 or something crazy like that? And again this not to excuse his behavior as he seems to have taken it too far on many occasions.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 27, 2021 8:08:06 GMT -5
I feel like it’s important to note that Watson can be all the good things people said and a creep all at once. He’s a person, we are complicated. He can be a great leader, a great teammate, philanthropic, great in the community and have this other dark part of his life that’s either pure evil or something lessor that was a fetish that entitlement or whatever else caused to spiral out of control. People don’t fit into boxes or categories nearly, but we try to do it because it’s easier for us. This is not meant to justify bad behavior but take this into consideration. I have heard player analysts talk about how often a top college QB, like many celebrities, can get some action multiple times a day if they want. These guys are accustomed to women throwing themselves at them constantly, thus leading them to think a bit differently about getting some action. Not to disparage massage therapists but I would bet that with minimal flirting he has been able to get what he wants frequently. One of the women he flew in from another city and rented her a suite, that to me is already planting seeds. Not that any of this is ok but he lives in a different world than the rest of us and sex doesn't mean the same to everyone. How many women did Wilt say he slept with? 15,000 or something crazy like that? And again this not to excuse his behavior as he seems to have taken it too far on many occasions. I’m by no means an expert on all these cases but from what I’ve seen he didn’t “force” himself on anyone so I’d have to guess it started out as one thing and slowly grew as he pushed some boundaries and he probably did it in a way that he tricked himself into thinking he wasn’t doing anything wrong or overly wrong. I know that sounds like I’m excusing his behavior as ok, but I’m not. It’s wrong, I’m just trying to explain how it’s plausible an otherwise good even noble person goes down a path like this.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 27, 2021 8:12:47 GMT -5
All I know is that Bill has been notorious in his trading down for quantity except that he made several moves in the free agent period to justify standing pat and choosing Micah Parsons (if he is still there).For him to trade up has not been his style. My guess is he will either stand pat or trade down. I wouldn't be surprised if he moved up a few spots to take Parsons if he drops and the Qb's are all gone. Once the Qb's are gone I think the cost to move up will go down as there is always a premium on them. I think Parsons is going to be that good that it's worth an extra pick to go up. At what point does it make sense to bid high in free agency on a veteran QB that has proven his value rather than paying the cost in draft capitol to get one that has a good chance of being a bust? I know in the past the good ones didn't hit the market all that often but that has been changing recently. This is something I have always wondered from afar as the Pats have been all set for so long but the strategy of trying to get THAT QB via the draft seems to be what has held so many teams back for years. They spend top picks on QB's yr after yr that don't pan out and are relegated to losing seasons. It used to be a lot worse when they paid those guys big bucks on top of the top picks, teams were doomed by the likes of Jamarcus Russell. I hear you, but this also assumes that all or most of these QBs would be busts no matter who they were drafted by. I believe environment matters. Remember, a lot of these guys are being drafted into unstable environments with crappy coaches and no offensive line, then they end up playing for multiple coaches and systems in the first few years of their careers. That’s no recipe for success. Tom Brady, Mahomes, Wilson, Rogers, etc were all brought into situations with great coaches and organizations. Jamarcus Russell would have failed any where because it’s who he was, but it’s hard to say on a lot of these guys who “failed”.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 27, 2021 8:15:40 GMT -5
So I’ve been using mock draft sims for PFF, TDN and PFN and it’s crazy how different their player rankings can be. I love it and i love how unpredictable this draft will be. Some of it is COVID but I’m hoping most of it is just we have more independent scouting now and less consensus group think.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 27, 2021 8:35:45 GMT -5
Exactly!! To both of your responses. I had similar thoughts and you expressed them both well.
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 3,048
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Post by mobaz on Apr 27, 2021 11:28:36 GMT -5
Great article from Howe on picking a QB (generally and specific to the Pats) via The Athletic ($). One thing that stood out:
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 3,048
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Post by mobaz on Apr 27, 2021 11:50:55 GMT -5
Separate question: Do we think the next great Pats CB is already on the roster? Myles Bryant and Michael Jackson kept popping up during training camp last year but the CB room was deep so they didn't get much play. We've been hearing about JoeJuan Williams for 2 years. Is he a Duke Dawson (ending up worthless to the team) or a Darius Butler (took some time to develop). Is Mills ready to take a step forward in a new scheme?
I obviously wouldn't bank on any of these guys, but if the team believes one or more of them are competent or better, it could affect whether they chase Surtain or Horn in the 1st round or wait a few round for CB. Obviously Bill has been STELLAR at finding secondary diamonds in late draft/UDFA, fully counter to as bad as he's been at IDing DBs in the 2nd/3rd.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 27, 2021 12:22:00 GMT -5
This is not meant to justify bad behavior but take this into consideration. I have heard player analysts talk about how often a top college QB, like many celebrities, can get some action multiple times a day if they want. These guys are accustomed to women throwing themselves at them constantly, thus leading them to think a bit differently about getting some action. Not to disparage massage therapists but I would bet that with minimal flirting he has been able to get what he wants frequently. One of the women he flew in from another city and rented her a suite, that to me is already planting seeds. Not that any of this is ok but he lives in a different world than the rest of us and sex doesn't mean the same to everyone. How many women did Wilt say he slept with? 15,000 or something crazy like that? And again this not to excuse his behavior as he seems to have taken it too far on many occasions. I’m by no means an expert on all these cases but from what I’ve seen he didn’t “force” himself on anyone so I’d have to guess it started out as one thing and slowly grew as he pushed some boundaries and he probably did it in a way that he tricked himself into thinking he wasn’t doing anything wrong or overly wrong. I know that sounds like I’m excusing his behavior as ok, but I’m not. It’s wrong, I’m just trying to explain how it’s plausible an otherwise good even noble person goes down a path like this. I think you need to go do a little more research, multiple women claim he forced them into sexual acts. The whole thing with every women is Watson trying to force himself on these women. He treats them like they are sex workers. You can say he's things like a good leader, etc, you can't say he's noble or has good character or even a good person unless you think all these women are just lying and making things up. Yet the SI investigation turned up women that haven't filed that backed up the same story. These weren't women that came onto him like in a bar or at the club, he targeted women based off of looks. He was preying off of women trying to have a career in a legit business. I'd almost buy what you're saying if he did the same thing across the board. Yet you seem to have the way he acted with professionals that were licensed versus the unlicenced ones he targeted. Which shows he knew exactly what he was doing.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 27, 2021 12:42:46 GMT -5
Separate question: Do we think the next great Pats CB is already on the roster? Myles Bryant and Michael Jackson kept popping up during training camp last year but the CB room was deep so they didn't get much play. We've been hearing about JoeJuan Williams for 2 years. Is he a Duke Dawson (ending up worthless to the team) or a Darius Butler (took some time to develop). Is Mills ready to take a step forward in a new scheme? I obviously wouldn't bank on any of these guys, but if the team believes one or more of them are competent or better, it could affect whether they chase Surtain or Horn in the 1st round or wait a few round for CB. Obviously Bill has been STELLAR at finding secondary diamonds in late draft/UDFA, fully counter to as bad as he's been at IDing DBs in the 2nd/3rd. Bryant is too small to be a great corner (doesn’t mean he can’t be a good part of the backfield though), Michael Jackson - i don’t see it... I bet JoJuan doesn’t make the team this year. JC Jackson may be their next great corner yet. I’m guessing you already consider him that, but I don’t.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 27, 2021 12:48:18 GMT -5
Separate question: Do we think the next great Pats CB is already on the roster? Myles Bryant and Michael Jackson kept popping up during training camp last year but the CB room was deep so they didn't get much play. We've been hearing about JoeJuan Williams for 2 years. Is he a Duke Dawson (ending up worthless to the team) or a Darius Butler (took some time to develop). Is Mills ready to take a step forward in a new scheme? I obviously wouldn't bank on any of these guys, but if the team believes one or more of them are competent or better, it could affect whether they chase Surtain or Horn in the 1st round or wait a few round for CB. Obviously Bill has been STELLAR at finding secondary diamonds in late draft/UDFA, fully counter to as bad as he's been at IDing DBs in the 2nd/3rd. Yes his name is J.C. Jackson, he's the next great CB in my opinion. Williams isn't Dawson because they actually play him. Outside of that it's crazy hard to tell because he's had so many good CBs above him. It's his make or break year because the third CB slot is currently open. I'll talk about Bryant because he actually played, Michael Jackson basically didn't. Bryant is small and slow, yet good three cone time. So he could be a decent slot guy. Which we could need given how teams are starting to pick on Jonthan Jones. I don't know how Jones still has a good PFF grade, when he's allowing 65% completion percentage. He gets beat deep all the time even though he's crazy fast, yet he has a horrible 3 cone time which likely explains it. Back to Bryant I don't see how he's great given his size and 4.62 40 time in today's NFL. It's why I'm targeting taking two CBs given how great this class is.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 27, 2021 14:52:24 GMT -5
Slot corner is the hardest position on the field to play.
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