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2021 Lineup / Batting Order
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Post by kevfc89 on Mar 19, 2021 18:28:45 GMT -5
I too am not that excited to see Hernandez lead off, but aren't we talking about fractions of a run differences even if you put together a 'perfectly' optimized lineup? It's slightly annoying, and if it's clear he can't do the job it should be changed quickly, but I don't think it's anything to be too concerned about to start the season.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 19, 2021 19:46:23 GMT -5
If it's against lefties, okay. But he has a career .286 OBP against righties. Can someone explain how it would be anything other than insane to have him lead off against righties (i.e., in most games)? Maybe he can benefit from "being challenged" or whatever psychological tricks high-level athletes need to deploy against themselves. But I highly doubt that would be worth the 60 points of OBP it would take to make the gambit worthwhile. I'm all onboard with Cora coming up with the best way to motivate Kiké, and then not undercutting that when talking to the press. And of course, when Opening Day comes, he can tell Kiké that he almost earned the leadoff spot and bat him 5th vs. RHP. Which is still "the heart of the order" and hardly a dis.
I'll also add that as much as the front office likes not to interfere with managerial decisions, if by some unfathomable chance Cora is serious about this, I believe that Bloom would tell him "no, you can't do that." [...].
.
These delusions are actually worrisome.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 19, 2021 21:41:07 GMT -5
I'm all onboard with Cora coming up with the best way to motivate Kiké, and then not undercutting that when talking to the press. And of course, when Opening Day comes, he can tell Kiké that he almost earned the leadoff spot and bat him 5th vs. RHP. Which is still "the heart of the order" and hardly a dis. I'll also add that as much as the front office likes not to interfere with managerial decisions, if by some unfathomable chance Cora is serious about this, I believe that Bloom would tell him "no, you can't do that."
Let me point out again that pushing Verdugo down to 2 or 3 means that he and Rafael Devers are going to face a LHP instead of a RHP in the late innings of more games than not. Verdugo's platoon split is tiny (117 wRC+ v. 113 the last 3 years), but that's against the average LHP. Almost every LHR reliever in an MLB bullpen is tougher than average against LHB. Devers is 130 / 77, and 148 / 82 the last 2 years. The three-batter rule will help him hugely if he's surrounded by RHB; it'll be very iffy to being in a LHR to face him if Kiké and Dalbec (or even CV) are the next two hitters. Move Verdugo to 2, and bringing in a LHR to face him, JDM, Devers is a no-brainer.
I'll furthermore add that challenging a guy with a difficult new job for which he seems to be grossly underqualified, and which he can practice in a meaningless situation, is one thing psychologically, and actually doing it when it's important is completely different. You can erase all the progress he makes if he feels pressure as a leadoff guy and starts the season badly.
Eric, just because you (and a lot of us) think it's not exactly a great idea to bat Kiké leadoff doesn't mean that Cora isn't going through with it because he is. He's not going to tell the press Kiké is leading off just about every chance he gets and then suddenly not do it. And Bloom isn't going to micromanage the lineup for Cora. If he felt he needed to do that he wouldn't have hired Cora in the first place. And Bloom is not going to dictate lineups to Cora. It is not Bloom's job to make out a lineup order and he doesn't strike me as a guy who would do that. As a matter of fact I remember him doing a podcast with Carrabis and the subject I believe came up and he made it clear that kind of thing is not the way he does things. Nor should he, frankly. He's going to let his manager manage. I vehemently disagree with the move, but I'm realistic enough to see how it's going to go down. If and when it's clear it doesn't work Cora will adjust. I don't like that they're going to spend games doing this, but I think at some point Verdugo will take it over and then hopefully Duran will hit so damn much he'll force his way into the majors (hopefully with improved CF defense) and hopefully soon thereafter into the leadoff spot where he could be a force if he develops as hoped for (although we all know that's not a guarantee either). I should have made it clear that there would just be a discussion of the pros and cons of the move, between whoever is the Talks-to-Cora-about-analytics guy in the F.O, and Cora. But that discussion would be, there are almost no pros and a ton of cons.
BTW, the "batting order isn't that important" studies assume that guys hit the same no matter where they bat, which is hugely untrue. This lineup might turn 50 high-leverage PA for Devers from RHP to LHP, for instance. Guys do hit better or worse depending on how good the next hitter is. Guys hit better in positions they are more comfortable with. Speed is a great tool in front of hitters who hit a lot of doubles and especially singles, and is wasted in front of hitters who walk a lot and hit homers. And so on.
I admit I'm grasping at straws to try to make sense of why Cora, who had the smartest year as a manager I've ever seen in 2018, would be talking about doing something this senseless.
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Post by manfred on Mar 19, 2021 21:51:27 GMT -5
Eric, just because you (and a lot of us) think it's not exactly a great idea to bat Kiké leadoff doesn't mean that Cora isn't going through with it because he is. He's not going to tell the press Kiké is leading off just about every chance he gets and then suddenly not do it. And Bloom isn't going to micromanage the lineup for Cora. If he felt he needed to do that he wouldn't have hired Cora in the first place. And Bloom is not going to dictate lineups to Cora. It is not Bloom's job to make out a lineup order and he doesn't strike me as a guy who would do that. As a matter of fact I remember him doing a podcast with Carrabis and the subject I believe came up and he made it clear that kind of thing is not the way he does things. Nor should he, frankly. He's going to let his manager manage. I vehemently disagree with the move, but I'm realistic enough to see how it's going to go down. If and when it's clear it doesn't work Cora will adjust. I don't like that they're going to spend games doing this, but I think at some point Verdugo will take it over and then hopefully Duran will hit so damn much he'll force his way into the majors (hopefully with improved CF defense) and hopefully soon thereafter into the leadoff spot where he could be a force if he develops as hoped for (although we all know that's not a guarantee either). I should have made it clear that there would just be a discussion of the pros and cons of the move, between whoever is the Talks-to-Cora-about-analytics guy in the F.O, and Cora. But that discussion would be, there are almost no pros and a ton of cons.
BTW, the "batting order isn't that important" studies assume that guys hit the same no matter where they bat, which is hugely untrue. This lineup might turn 50 high-leverage PA for Devers from RHP to LHP, for instance. Guys do hit better or worse depending on how good the next hitter is. Guys hit better in positions they are more comfortable with. Speed is a great tool in front of hitters who hit a lot of doubles and especially singles, and is wasted in front of hitters who walk a lot and hit homers. And so on.
I admit I'm grasping at straws to try to make sense of why Cora, who had the smartest year as a manager I've ever seen in 2018, would be talking about doing something this senseless.
This is something that is so key and gets lost in math at times: there are subjective factors that can’t be controlled for in abstract studies. Some guys simply don’t thrive in positions. Yes, as Eric notes, that is likely largely due to how it shifts in-game situations (his Devers example). It is also just mental: some guys have it in their heads that one slot is best for them. I don’t buy that there is a marginal difference in restructuring a lineup. Maybe some small tweaks make no difference, but it is not pickup sticks. And I also think you can change a guy’s season by putting him in the wrong place.
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Post by soxinjersey on Mar 19, 2021 22:19:21 GMT -5
So far, justifications for Cora's possible choice to have Kiké bat lead-off have emphasized the potential motivational advantages for him, but is it possible that he might actually add something tangible, albeit unmeasurable now, to the Sox? I've seen him play a fair amount, and he brings great energy to the game. Verdugo does so as well. An old-school mind-set tells me that those two together at the top of the line-up have the potential to put a dynamic charge into the beginning of games. Your numbers say it is unlikely this would happen, but I don't think it would surprise AC if it did. (If this experiment doesn't work out, it might make sense to have Kiké hit 9th and thus still in front of Verdugo.)
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 20, 2021 14:27:36 GMT -5
It makes me laugh that every offseason there's so much consternation and hand-wringing about the lineup when it's going to continue to change throughout the season.
Fun to discuss and pore over but what's wrong with an experiment of Hernandez at the top spot? Hell, seems to be working out fine in camp. Let's see if it carries over into the season. If it doesn't the great thing is you can then, in fact, change the lineup.
They added three new regulars this offseason and need to figure out where Dalbec fits. I'd be stunned if the lineup out of the gate doesn't get tweaked a bunch over the first month.
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Post by soxinsf on Mar 20, 2021 15:20:40 GMT -5
Thanks, Chris. Now maybe we can draw a line under the comments like insane and absurd, and let the experiment play out a little longer. It is not like there are a lot of really good options on the roster.
However, when it comes to consternation and handwringing, it needs to be remembered that you are dealing with the Red Sox Nation. It is what we do.
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Post by GyIantosca on Mar 20, 2021 19:38:48 GMT -5
Me personally am happy that the FO did not tie up a big contract in the outfield. I feel also that there waiting for Duran . Every time I see him I like him more and more. It’s like they come once in a while a prospect like this one . He just is coming to take his spot on the team.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Mar 22, 2021 17:06:19 GMT -5
*except impress Eric
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 22, 2021 22:29:02 GMT -5
So, Alex Cora and the F.O. know things we can't dream of. Is there a reasonable hypothesis that explains Kiké as #1?
Do folks remember Kevin Millar dramatically opening his stance (on 7/21/04) and hitting .563 / .600 / 1.756 in his first 8 games, including a 3-homer game the day before the A-Rod / 'Tek / Mo / Mueller game? The new stance apparently turned his old cold zones into hot zones. They had no idea how to pitch to him. Once they figured him out, the results were no better than the old stance, so he reverted.
A more relevant example is the one I found for Marwin Gonzalez in 2017, which is somewhere in these pages (search doesn't work between 12/20 and 2/27). But the short version is that he had a 101 wRC+ in his three previous seasons, had a 166 in 2017 through July 18, and 109 the rest of the way.
Guys who change their approach can become dramatically better hitters, for at least a while until the league figures them out.
Now, we know that they have Kiké working on his approach, hunting fastballs earlier in the count and chasing less often when ahead. Neither of those are outside-the-box ideas. But let's hypothesize that they have another idea for him, that he's working on, that is creative, which is to say it's something the Dodgers never thought of.
They wouldn't talk about it. It's outside the box, so it's not something other teams could figure out by essentially guessing and then looking. If it's subtle, it's going to be hard to pick up just by watching him. It could be, for instance, a slight swing adjustment that closes some existing holes in the zone. An adjustment like that might take the opposition, say, nearly four months to figure out.
Yup. Marwin Gonzalez was the second best hitter on the Astros through July 28th, after Altuve (176) and ahead of Springer and Correa (161, 158). Really! So we know this can happen. And that's ignoring Cora's presence in Houston in 2017.
This has to be it, right? These guys are not crazy or stupid. Kiké has 8 BB and 5 SO this spring; the rest of the regulars have 26 BB and 70 SO. He may not be able to sustain this -- Marwin didn't -- but in the short term, it makes solid sense.
So a guess at the order vs. RHP as it currently stands. The first 5 guys are from Sunday:
1. Hernandez, the New Thing 2. Verdugo, down 1 spot from expectation 3. Martinez, where you'd expect 4. Bogaerts, excellent spot for him 5. Devers, moved down 1, which puts 2 lefty-killers between him and Verdugo, solving the biggest thing that bugged me. Also not a bad idea as he's been a slow starter. 6. Vazquez? Cora said 7th earlier. He hit here on Saturday, but that with Devers 4th. 7. Dalbec? process of elimination. He hasn't hit as high as 6th on a day with mostly regulars, I don't think.
8. Cordero (or if he's on the IL, Gonzalez or Renfroe). Hit 7th on Saturday when Devers hit 4th. Keeps the 2 RHB between them.
9. Arroyo. Good no-pressure spot for him. You don't want him 6 or 7 because of his reverse split.
Now, this can be shuffled with 1 through 5 being Verdugo, Xander, Kiké, Devers, JDM. That would move Franchy up to 7 and Vazquez or Dalbec down to 8. Kiké still gets to bat in the first inning per his preference, only now he gets to size up, from the on-deck circle, the SP working on Xander. I wouldn't mind seeing that shuffle as soon as Devers finds his groove. But in the meantime, the Trust Bloom and Trust Cora principles say this actually makes sense. And that they've been planning on Kiké as leadoff from the beginning suggests that there is some clever analysis behind that, e.g., a generic tendency for pitchers to [redacted] that Kiké is ideally suited to exploit.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 22, 2021 23:36:33 GMT -5
So, Alex Cora and the F.O. know things we can't dream of. Is there a reasonable hypothesis that explains Kiké as #1? Do folks remember Kevin Millar dramatically opening his stance (on 7/21/04) and hitting .563 / .600 / 1.756 in his first 8 games, including a 3-homer game the day before the A-Rod / 'Tek / Mo / Mueller game? The new stance apparently turned his old cold zones into hot zones. They had no idea how to pitch to him. Once they figured him out, the results were no better than the old stance, so he reverted. A more relevant example is the one I found for Marwin Gonzalez in 2017, which is somewhere in these pages (search doesn't work between 12/20 and 2/27). But the short version is that he had a 101 wRC+ in his three previous seasons, had a 166 in 2017 through July 18, and 109 the rest of the way. Guys who change their approach can become dramatically better hitters, for at least a while until the league figures them out. Now, we know that they have Kiké working on his approach, hunting fastballs earlier in the count and chasing less often when ahead. Neither of those are outside-the-box ideas. But let's hypothesize that they have another idea for him, that he's working on, that is creative, which is to say it's something the Dodgers never thought of. They wouldn't talk about it. It's outside the box, so it's not something other teams could figure out by essentially guessing and then looking. If it's subtle, it's going to be hard to pick up just by watching him. It could be, for instance, a slight swing adjustment that closes some existing holes in the zone. An adjustment like that might take the opposition, say, nearly four months to figure out.
Yup. Marwin Gonzalez was the second best hitter on the Astros through July 28th, after Altuve (176) and ahead of Springer and Correa (161, 158). Really! So we know this can happen. And that's ignoring Cora's presence in Houston in 2017. This has to be it, right? These guys are not crazy or stupid. Kiké has 8 BB and 5 SO this spring; the rest of the regulars have 26 BB and 70 SO. He may not be able to sustain this -- Marwin didn't -- but in the short term, it makes solid sense.
So a guess at the order vs. RHP as it currently stands. The first 5 guys are from Sunday: 1. Hernandez, the New Thing 2. Verdugo, down 1 spot from expectation 3. Martinez, where you'd expect 4. Bogaerts, excellent spot for him 5. Devers, moved down 1, which puts 2 lefty-killers between him and Verdugo, solving the biggest thing that bugged me. Also not a bad idea as he's been a slow starter. 6. Vazquez? Cora said 7th earlier. He hit here on Saturday, but that with Devers 4th. 7. Dalbec? process of elimination. He hasn't hit as high as 6th on a day with mostly regulars, I don't think.
8. Cordero (or if he's on the IL, Gonzalez or Renfroe). Hit 7th on Saturday when Devers hit 4th. Keeps the 2 RHB between them.
9. Arroyo. Good no-pressure spot for him. You don't want him 6 or 7 because of his reverse split.
Now, this can be shuffled with 1 through 5 being Verdugo, Xander, Kiké, Devers, JDM. That would move Franchy up to 7 and Vazquez or Dalbec down to 8. Kiké still gets to bat in the first inning per his preference, only now he gets to size up, from the on-deck circle, the SP working on Xander. I wouldn't mind seeing that shuffle as soon as Devers finds his groove. But in the meantime, the Trust Bloom and Trust Cora principles say this actually makes sense. And that they've been planning on Kiké as leadoff from the beginning suggests that there is some clever analysis behind that, e.g., a generic tendency for pitchers to [redacted] that Kiké is ideally suited to exploit.
Perhaps he had Hunter Renfroe in mind for #6 in the order. That's a possibility, as bad as that sounds. Hernandez is probably the starting 2b and Renfroe right now is probably the starting RF, even against righties as much as it pains me to type that. My guess is that he has Renfroe 6th, Vazquez 7th, Cordero 8th (Gonzalez will probably start the season in LF batting 8th), and then Dalbec 9th. I wouldn't expect that order to hold up for long. I would anticipate as Dalbec is crushing homers (and striking out), he'll be elevated to the #6 spot. Frankly I wouldn't be completely shocked if he wound up 4th at some point in the season should JDM fail to rebound (with X batting 3rd). I would think that eventually Duran forces his way up and the days of Renfroe starting against righties finally go away (and yes there could be some days where Arroyo is playing 2b and Kiké either CF or RF if/when Renfroe struggles against righties. That's probably when Dalbec gets elevated in the order, probably batting 6th, if not sooner.
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shagworthy
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Post by shagworthy on Mar 23, 2021 7:02:12 GMT -5
I love that there is a concentrated, heated discussion over the lineup as if it is the difference between this team being a contender versus a middling team. I'm far more concerned with starters 2-5 and what follows them out from the pen than any lineup configuration. This team is going to hit, and it's going to score runs, the defense is going to be not as good as we are accustomed to in the outfield, and the pitching can't be much worse than it was last year (knock on wood). There's going to be a lot of 8-5 games this year, hopefully we end up on the 8 side more often than not.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 23, 2021 7:18:28 GMT -5
So, Alex Cora and the F.O. know things we can't dream of. Is there a reasonable hypothesis that explains Kiké as #1?
[...]
"We don't have anyone better (for now) and this guy seems like he might hit better there than he would anywhere else."
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 23, 2021 7:49:32 GMT -5
I love that there is a concentrated, heated discussion over the lineup as if it is the difference between this team being a contender versus a middling team. I'm far more concerned with starters 2-5 and what follows them out from the pen than any lineup configuration. This team is going to hit, and it's going to score runs, the defense is going to be not as good as we are accustomed to in the outfield, and the pitching can't be much worse than it was last year (knock on wood). There's going to be a lot of 8-5 games this year, hopefully we end up on the 8 side more often than not. That's the nature of the site and our fandom, think of anything that might give them even any edge at all. But the bottom line is exactly what you say it is. We can talk about the edges a lineup order will bring (and we do), but yeah as you said, the fate of this season's team is tied to how well the questionable starting pitchers hold up and if the bullpen (which kind of terrifies me given that I can't stand excessive walks from bullpen guys - is it any surprise that Koji is my favorite Sox reliever of all-time?) can hold leads.
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shagworthy
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Post by shagworthy on Mar 23, 2021 8:33:43 GMT -5
I love that there is a concentrated, heated discussion over the lineup as if it is the difference between this team being a contender versus a middling team. I'm far more concerned with starters 2-5 and what follows them out from the pen than any lineup configuration. This team is going to hit, and it's going to score runs, the defense is going to be not as good as we are accustomed to in the outfield, and the pitching can't be much worse than it was last year (knock on wood). There's going to be a lot of 8-5 games this year, hopefully we end up on the 8 side more often than not. That's the nature of the site and our fandom, think of anything that might give them even any edge at all. But the bottom line is exactly what you say it is. We can talk about the edges a lineup order will bring (and we do), but yeah as you said, the fate of this season's team is tied to how well the questionable starting pitchers hold up and if the bullpen (which kind of terrifies me given that I can't stand excessive walks from bullpen guys - is it any surprise that Koji is my favorite Sox reliever of all-time?) can hold leads. I likewise can't stand walks from bullpen arms, and the rotation while better, concerns me greatly. I am not a big Erod proponent, nor do I hold Eovaldi in very high esteem. Granted, Erod has been better when healthy the last few years. We talk about health a lot with this staff, but even taking health out of the equation, a guy like Eovaldi for example has one card, velocity, and I've seen his velocity hit very hard, and very far. They aren't an ideal 1-2, and who knows what we get from Richards or Pivetta? The only guy really who we can write in permanent ink is Perez, he'll have a 4ish ERA, throw about 175 innings, and make all of his starts, not groundbreaking, a prototypical #5.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 23, 2021 9:00:27 GMT -5
That's the nature of the site and our fandom, think of anything that might give them even any edge at all. But the bottom line is exactly what you say it is. We can talk about the edges a lineup order will bring (and we do), but yeah as you said, the fate of this season's team is tied to how well the questionable starting pitchers hold up and if the bullpen (which kind of terrifies me given that I can't stand excessive walks from bullpen guys - is it any surprise that Koji is my favorite Sox reliever of all-time?) can hold leads. I likewise can't stand walks from bullpen arms, and the rotation while better, concerns me greatly. I am not a big Erod proponent, nor do I hold Eovaldi in very high esteem. Granted, Erod has been better when healthy the last few years. We talk about health a lot with this staff, but even taking health out of the equation, a guy like Eovaldi for example has one card, velocity, and I've seen his velocity hit very hard, and very far. They aren't an ideal 1-2, and who knows what we get from Richards or Pivetta? The only guy really who we can write in permanent ink is Perez, he'll have a 4ish ERA, throw about 175 innings, and make all of his starts, not groundbreaking, a prototypical #5. I share your concerns. The E-Rod over the final 3/4 of 2019 was truly an ace. His ERA was practically the same in 2019 as it was in 2018, but he got off to a really lousy start in 2019 and then pitched like an ace for a long stretch. We know he has the stuff to be an ace or at least a very good #2. I feel like I haven't heard much about Eovaldi's cutter. When he was at his best, he had a nasty cutter to go with his fastball. And when he's at his best his K/BB ratio is extremely good. I'll always be thankful to Eovaldi simply because no matter what happens he saved his best for when it mattered the most. That said, I'm uneasy about relying on him. Richards' control worries me. I get the idea behind him. He could be a really sneaky good signing. That said, I really wished they had been able to snag Kluber. I have more faith that Kluber rebounds than I do that Richards can stay healthy and be effective. The Richards of 2014 or so was pretty good, but boy was that a long time ago. Pivetta is boom or bust. I think if the Red Sox rotation winds up being decent this year it'll be because Pivetta finally took the big step forward. I know that sometimes a change of scenery is a big deal but I always feel better when I hear a pitcher is making changes in what he does because that would make me think there's a better chance that he can improve than simply by changing teams. Perez is what he is, although I wouldn't be surprised if his ERA wound up in the 5s. I've never been too high on him. The above is why I think the biggest impacts will see will come from Garrett Whitlock and Connor Seabold. I think they will come up at some point when Eovaldi and Richards inevitably miss time and I can see them pitch reasonably well, not dominating or anything like that, but good enough where you want to see more and they provide you hope for better seasons from them. It's a shame Mata got hurt. I would have been curious as to what he could have added, although I think this season he could have wound up in the pen if/when the pen needs help. And then there's Houck. I honestly think Seabold and Whitlock will help them more than Houck this season. His lack of control worries me, which means he'd fit that bullpen just fine. And then there's the Chris Sale factor. I know some feel he can pick up where he left off, but I think he'll be treated with kid gloves. I wouldn't even be surprised if there were some minor setbacks along the way. Honestly it wouldn't shock me to see him start out in the pen if the pen is struggling and in need of a devastating late inning arm. Sale as a closer could be scary good. Note that I'm not saying the Sox should take their 29 million dollar pitcher and make a closer out of him. I'm just saying it's not hard to imagine a scenario where the pen struggles as nobody can throw strikes consistently and if the Sox are vying for a wild card spot, they could turn to Sale to occasionally pitch high leverage for short stints (obviously back-to-back days wouldn't happen), and try to build him back up to start next season. I just remember the Dodgers having zero chance at hitting Sale's slider in that 9th inning, so I could see him being effective in a role like that temporarily if the need is there from the Sox and his need to keep his innings low as he slowly builds up. Kind of like when Schilling came back from his injury after the 04 season or when Eovaldi came back from his injury in 2019 (and neither of those worked out at all!).
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shagworthy
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Post by shagworthy on Mar 23, 2021 9:55:07 GMT -5
I likewise can't stand walks from bullpen arms, and the rotation while better, concerns me greatly. I am not a big Erod proponent, nor do I hold Eovaldi in very high esteem. Granted, Erod has been better when healthy the last few years. We talk about health a lot with this staff, but even taking health out of the equation, a guy like Eovaldi for example has one card, velocity, and I've seen his velocity hit very hard, and very far. They aren't an ideal 1-2, and who knows what we get from Richards or Pivetta? The only guy really who we can write in permanent ink is Perez, he'll have a 4ish ERA, throw about 175 innings, and make all of his starts, not groundbreaking, a prototypical #5. I share your concerns. The E-Rod over the final 3/4 of 2019 was truly an ace. His ERA was practically the same in 2019 as it was in 2018, but he got off to a really lousy start in 2019 and then pitched like an ace for a long stretch. We know he has the stuff to be an ace or at least a very good #2. I feel like I haven't heard much about Eovaldi's cutter. When he was at his best, he had a nasty cutter to go with his fastball. And when he's at his best his K/BB ratio is extremely good. I'll always be thankful to Eovaldi simply because no matter what happens he saved his best for when it mattered the most. That said, I'm uneasy about relying on him. Richards' control worries me. I get the idea behind him. He could be a really sneaky good signing. That said, I really wished they had been able to snag Kluber. I have more faith that Kluber rebounds than I do that Richards can stay healthy and be effective. The Richards of 2014 or so was pretty good, but boy was that a long time ago. Pivetta is boom or bust. I think if the Red Sox rotation winds up being decent this year it'll be because Pivetta finally took the big step forward. I know that sometimes a change of scenery is a big deal but I always feel better when I hear a pitcher is making changes in what he does because that would make me think there's a better chance that he can improve than simply by changing teams. Perez is what he is, although I wouldn't be surprised if his ERA wound up in the 5s. I've never been too high on him. The above is why I think the biggest impacts will see will come from Garrett Whitlock and Connor Seabold. I think they will come up at some point when Eovaldi and Richards inevitably miss time and I can see them pitch reasonably well, not dominating or anything like that, but good enough where you want to see more and they provide you hope for better seasons from them. It's a shame Mata got hurt. I would have been curious as to what he could have added, although I think this season he could have wound up in the pen if/when the pen needs help. And then there's Houck. I honestly think Seabold and Whitlock will help them more than Houck this season. His lack of control worries me, which means he'd fit that bullpen just fine. And then there's the Chris Sale factor. I know some feel he can pick up where he left off, but I think he'll be treated with kid gloves. I wouldn't even be surprised if there were some minor setbacks along the way. Honestly it wouldn't shock me to see him start out in the pen if the pen is struggling and in need of a devastating late inning arm. Sale as a closer could be scary good. Note that I'm not saying the Sox should take their 29 million dollar pitcher and make a closer out of him. I'm just saying it's not hard to imagine a scenario where the pen struggles as nobody can throw strikes consistently and if the Sox are vying for a wild card spot, they could turn to Sale to occasionally pitch high leverage for short stints (obviously back-to-back days wouldn't happen), and try to build him back up to start next season. I just remember the Dodgers having zero chance at hitting Sale's slider in that 9th inning, so I could see him being effective in a role like that temporarily if the need is there from the Sox and his need to keep his innings low as he slowly builds up. Kind of like when Schilling came back from his injury after the 04 season or when Eovaldi came back from his injury in 2019 (and neither of those worked out at all!). Sale as a closer/high leverage reliever is intriguing for 2021. I agree, I'd much rather have had Kluber, who aside from two freak injuries was a CY contender not that long ago, I don't mind taking a chance on Richards, but I'd rather be taking a chance with him as your 4th or 5th option, not your 3rd. I'm still floored that the Sox didn't immediately claim Hand when he was gifted to everyone, I'm actually shocked no one claimed him, weirdest bit of Covid theatre I've seen. I'm interested to see what Houck does in the minors, I think all the negativity and doubt from pundits that he couldn't be successful long term got in his head a bit this spring, what I saw was a kid trying too hard and getting out of his game. I'm not saying he's the next ace, but he's got such deception on his pitches that he can get away with being less precise in the zone as long as he is in it. I see Whitlock as being a very valuable swing/long relief arm, and I think Andriese will get first dibs at the rotation if someone goes down, I admittedly haven't seen enough of Seibold yet to make anything of what he could be, but the reports are a solid guy who knows the zone and pitch sequencing. Of course, we've heard that a few times before about other prospects who didn't have amazing stuff, and the results haven't always been great, so I'll reserve judgement until I see it. It's not out of the realm of possibility there is another trade for this team to acquire pitching during the season. At some point I expect Duran to force his way onto the roster, and in a perfect world everyone is playing ok when that happens and the Sox have an embarrassment of riches from which to deal with to get some more pitching depth. I'm not sure I really look forward to having this many moving parts in the infield and outfield. Hard to get consistent defense when 1/2 of your outfield and infield can be inversed every day Kiké/Marwin could be going back and forth between the infield and outfield a lot. Will also be interesting to see what other two pieces come from the Beni trade (when they make that decision). I had mixed feelings on that trade, I've admittedly peeked at Beni's spring numbers a few times, thankfully he's not hitting .800 with 9 home runs and 5 sb. I don't really anticipate much from the Franchy era, but with guys like Duran and Jimenez coming, I don't think he's much more than a placeholder right now. If Jimenez can figure some things out one can dream on those two setting the table and making pitchers extremely nervous for a few years, they both can jet. 2022 Could feature two guys with elite speed, (Jimenez, Duran) and Jeter Downs. When was the last time the Sox had two burners on their team?
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Post by manfred on Mar 23, 2021 10:03:38 GMT -5
I share your concerns. The E-Rod over the final 3/4 of 2019 was truly an ace. His ERA was practically the same in 2019 as it was in 2018, but he got off to a really lousy start in 2019 and then pitched like an ace for a long stretch. We know he has the stuff to be an ace or at least a very good #2. I feel like I haven't heard much about Eovaldi's cutter. When he was at his best, he had a nasty cutter to go with his fastball. And when he's at his best his K/BB ratio is extremely good. I'll always be thankful to Eovaldi simply because no matter what happens he saved his best for when it mattered the most. That said, I'm uneasy about relying on him. Richards' control worries me. I get the idea behind him. He could be a really sneaky good signing. That said, I really wished they had been able to snag Kluber. I have more faith that Kluber rebounds than I do that Richards can stay healthy and be effective. The Richards of 2014 or so was pretty good, but boy was that a long time ago. Pivetta is boom or bust. I think if the Red Sox rotation winds up being decent this year it'll be because Pivetta finally took the big step forward. I know that sometimes a change of scenery is a big deal but I always feel better when I hear a pitcher is making changes in what he does because that would make me think there's a better chance that he can improve than simply by changing teams. Perez is what he is, although I wouldn't be surprised if his ERA wound up in the 5s. I've never been too high on him. The above is why I think the biggest impacts will see will come from Garrett Whitlock and Connor Seabold. I think they will come up at some point when Eovaldi and Richards inevitably miss time and I can see them pitch reasonably well, not dominating or anything like that, but good enough where you want to see more and they provide you hope for better seasons from them. It's a shame Mata got hurt. I would have been curious as to what he could have added, although I think this season he could have wound up in the pen if/when the pen needs help. And then there's Houck. I honestly think Seabold and Whitlock will help them more than Houck this season. His lack of control worries me, which means he'd fit that bullpen just fine. And then there's the Chris Sale factor. I know some feel he can pick up where he left off, but I think he'll be treated with kid gloves. I wouldn't even be surprised if there were some minor setbacks along the way. Honestly it wouldn't shock me to see him start out in the pen if the pen is struggling and in need of a devastating late inning arm. Sale as a closer could be scary good. Note that I'm not saying the Sox should take their 29 million dollar pitcher and make a closer out of him. I'm just saying it's not hard to imagine a scenario where the pen struggles as nobody can throw strikes consistently and if the Sox are vying for a wild card spot, they could turn to Sale to occasionally pitch high leverage for short stints (obviously back-to-back days wouldn't happen), and try to build him back up to start next season. I just remember the Dodgers having zero chance at hitting Sale's slider in that 9th inning, so I could see him being effective in a role like that temporarily if the need is there from the Sox and his need to keep his innings low as he slowly builds up. Kind of like when Schilling came back from his injury after the 04 season or when Eovaldi came back from his injury in 2019 (and neither of those worked out at all!). Sale as a closer/high leverage reliever is intriguing for 2021. I agree, I'd much rather have had Kluber, who aside from two freak injuries was a CY contender not that long ago, I don't mind taking a chance on Richards, but I'd rather be taking a chance with him as your 4th or 5th option, not your 3rd. I'm still floored that the Sox didn't immediately claim Hand when he was gifted to everyone, I'm actually shocked no one claimed him, weirdest bit of Covid theatre I've seen. I'm interested to see what Houck does in the minors, I think all the negativity and doubt from pundits that he couldn't be successful long term got in his head a bit this spring, what I saw was a kid trying too hard and getting out of his game. I'm not saying he's the next ace, but he's got such deception on his pitches that he can get away with being less precise in the zone as long as he is in it. I see Whitlock as being a very valuable swing/long relief arm, and I think Andriese will get first dibs at the rotation if someone goes down, I admittedly haven't seen enough of Seibold yet to make anything of what he could be, but the reports are a solid guy who knows the zone and pitch sequencing. Of course, we've heard that a few times before about other prospects who didn't have amazing stuff, and the results haven't always been great, so I'll reserve judgement until I see it. It's not out of the realm of possibility there is another trade for this team to acquire pitching during the season. At some point I expect Duran to force his way onto the roster, and in a perfect world everyone is playing ok when that happens and the Sox have an embarrassment of riches from which to deal with to get some more pitching depth. I'm not sure I really look forward to having this many moving parts in the infield and outfield. Hard to get consistent defense when 1/2 of your outfield and infield can be inversed every day Kiké/Marwin could be going back and forth between the infield and outfield a lot. Will also be interesting to see what other two pieces come from the Beni trade (when they make that decision). I had mixed feelings on that trade, I've admittedly peeked at Beni's spring numbers a few times, thankfully he's not hitting .800 with 9 home runs and 5 sb. I don't really anticipate much from the Franchy era, but with guys like Duran and Jimenez coming, I don't think he's much more than a placeholder right now. If Jimenez can figure some things out one can dream on those two setting the table and making pitchers extremely nervous for a few years, they both can jet. 2022 Could feature two guys with elite speed, (Jimenez, Duran) and Jeter Downs. When was the last time the Sox had two burners on their team? Small note, and Chris et al can correct me but... I don’t think there is much chance Jimenez is up in 2022. He is a raw 20-year old. Maybe he makes a huge jump, but I would be stunned if that was the plan right now.
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shagworthy
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Post by shagworthy on Mar 23, 2021 10:06:27 GMT -5
Sale as a closer/high leverage reliever is intriguing for 2021. I agree, I'd much rather have had Kluber, who aside from two freak injuries was a CY contender not that long ago, I don't mind taking a chance on Richards, but I'd rather be taking a chance with him as your 4th or 5th option, not your 3rd. I'm still floored that the Sox didn't immediately claim Hand when he was gifted to everyone, I'm actually shocked no one claimed him, weirdest bit of Covid theatre I've seen. I'm interested to see what Houck does in the minors, I think all the negativity and doubt from pundits that he couldn't be successful long term got in his head a bit this spring, what I saw was a kid trying too hard and getting out of his game. I'm not saying he's the next ace, but he's got such deception on his pitches that he can get away with being less precise in the zone as long as he is in it. I see Whitlock as being a very valuable swing/long relief arm, and I think Andriese will get first dibs at the rotation if someone goes down, I admittedly haven't seen enough of Seibold yet to make anything of what he could be, but the reports are a solid guy who knows the zone and pitch sequencing. Of course, we've heard that a few times before about other prospects who didn't have amazing stuff, and the results haven't always been great, so I'll reserve judgement until I see it. It's not out of the realm of possibility there is another trade for this team to acquire pitching during the season. At some point I expect Duran to force his way onto the roster, and in a perfect world everyone is playing ok when that happens and the Sox have an embarrassment of riches from which to deal with to get some more pitching depth. I'm not sure I really look forward to having this many moving parts in the infield and outfield. Hard to get consistent defense when 1/2 of your outfield and infield can be inversed every day Kiké/Marwin could be going back and forth between the infield and outfield a lot. Will also be interesting to see what other two pieces come from the Beni trade (when they make that decision). I had mixed feelings on that trade, I've admittedly peeked at Beni's spring numbers a few times, thankfully he's not hitting .800 with 9 home runs and 5 sb. I don't really anticipate much from the Franchy era, but with guys like Duran and Jimenez coming, I don't think he's much more than a placeholder right now. If Jimenez can figure some things out one can dream on those two setting the table and making pitchers extremely nervous for a few years, they both can jet. 2022 Could feature two guys with elite speed, (Jimenez, Duran) and Jeter Downs. When was the last time the Sox had two burners on their team? Small note, and Chris et al can correct me but... I don’t think there is much chance Jimenez is up in 2022. He is a raw 20-year old. Maybe he makes a huge jump, but I would be stunned if that was the plan right now. Fair.. maybe getting ahead of myself, but I like Jimenez a lot, and he's held his own this spring. Be interested to see where he lands in the minors this year, might be instructive on how far the Sox think he is away from the majors.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 23, 2021 10:09:11 GMT -5
Sale as a closer/high leverage reliever is intriguing for 2021. I agree, I'd much rather have had Kluber, who aside from two freak injuries was a CY contender not that long ago, I don't mind taking a chance on Richards, but I'd rather be taking a chance with him as your 4th or 5th option, not your 3rd. I'm still floored that the Sox didn't immediately claim Hand when he was gifted to everyone, I'm actually shocked no one claimed him, weirdest bit of Covid theatre I've seen. I'm interested to see what Houck does in the minors, I think all the negativity and doubt from pundits that he couldn't be successful long term got in his head a bit this spring, what I saw was a kid trying too hard and getting out of his game. I'm not saying he's the next ace, but he's got such deception on his pitches that he can get away with being less precise in the zone as long as he is in it. I see Whitlock as being a very valuable swing/long relief arm, and I think Andriese will get first dibs at the rotation if someone goes down, I admittedly haven't seen enough of Seibold yet to make anything of what he could be, but the reports are a solid guy who knows the zone and pitch sequencing. Of course, we've heard that a few times before about other prospects who didn't have amazing stuff, and the results haven't always been great, so I'll reserve judgement until I see it. It's not out of the realm of possibility there is another trade for this team to acquire pitching during the season. At some point I expect Duran to force his way onto the roster, and in a perfect world everyone is playing ok when that happens and the Sox have an embarrassment of riches from which to deal with to get some more pitching depth. I'm not sure I really look forward to having this many moving parts in the infield and outfield. Hard to get consistent defense when 1/2 of your outfield and infield can be inversed every day Kiké/Marwin could be going back and forth between the infield and outfield a lot. Will also be interesting to see what other two pieces come from the Beni trade (when they make that decision). I had mixed feelings on that trade, I've admittedly peeked at Beni's spring numbers a few times, thankfully he's not hitting .800 with 9 home runs and 5 sb. I don't really anticipate much from the Franchy era, but with guys like Duran and Jimenez coming, I don't think he's much more than a placeholder right now. If Jimenez can figure some things out one can dream on those two setting the table and making pitchers extremely nervous for a few years, they both can jet. 2022 Could feature two guys with elite speed, (Jimenez, Duran) and Jeter Downs. When was the last time the Sox had two burners on their team? Small note, and Chris et al can correct me but... I don’t think there is much chance Jimenez is up in 2022. He is a raw 20-year old. Maybe he makes a huge jump, but I would be stunned if that was the plan right now. 2023 or even 2024 is more likely for Jimenez. I am excited to see how he progresses this season. He could be that "blue chipper" that the Sox farm system is lacking right now. I do think he is the future of CF. That said, I am looking forward to seeing Duran, who can be shifted to an outfield corner if his bat proves to be solid, along with power and his blazing speed.
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rasimon
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Post by rasimon on Mar 23, 2021 10:28:24 GMT -5
2022 Could feature two guys with elite speed, (Jimenez, Duran) and Jeter Downs. When was the last time the Sox had two burners on their team? 2008-2013 they had Ellsbury + Pedrioa and a few supporting cast members. 2008 Ellsbury, Pedroia, Crisp 2011 Ellsbury, Pedrioa, Crawford 2013 Ellsbury, Pedrioa, Victorino
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 23, 2021 10:45:46 GMT -5
Never say never but it would be stunning if Jimenez debuted next year. He'd have to have a Betts-like explosion.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 23, 2021 10:48:02 GMT -5
2008-2013 they had Ellsbury + Pedrioa and a few supporting cast members. 2008 Ellsbury, Pedroia, Crisp 2011 Ellsbury, Pedrioa, Crawford 2013 Ellsbury, Pedrioa, Victorino The 2018 Red Sox outfield had Mookie with 30 steals, Benintendi stole 21 bases, and JBJ had 17 stolen bases. The thing about the 2013 and 2018 Red Sox teams that I remember is that those teams were excellent baserunning teams, they were aggressive, took the extra base, forced the action on the basepaths and had a good ratio for being safe as opposed to getting thrown out on the basepaths. I think that the 2013 Sox were great in that way all year, but the 2018 Red Sox were sloppy in that regard early on, but by midyear for the remainder of the year they were a really great baserunning team. I always point to that 8 run explosion they had against the Yankees in that key 4 game series sweep where they ran in a way that I've never been more proud of them in that regard. They totally flustered the Yankees that inning. It was a clinic. If they re-show that game, I highly recommend watching that inning. Yes, it was the Steve Pearce 3 HR game, but it was the base running that was eye opening. I mean, they literally took it to the Yankees. So when Alex Cora talks about being more athletic and the speed of the game, I know EXACTLY what he's talking about. The Red Sox simply weren't that way in 2019 and he knew it. He wants the Red Sox of the future to own the basepaths the way the 2018 Sox did. And that's where speed and athleticism come in. Duran and Jimenez down the road perhaps. Downs can move, too.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 23, 2021 15:02:52 GMT -5
So, Alex Cora and the F.O. know things we can't dream of. Is there a reasonable hypothesis that explains Kiké as #1?
[...]
"We don't have anyone better (for now) and this guy seems like he might hit better there than he would anywhere else." Except the part in bold is laughably, ludicrously untrue. I mean, their incumbent leadoff hitter had a .367 OBP and led the team in bWAR. You knew that, and yet you typed that anyway.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 23, 2021 15:24:12 GMT -5
So, Alex Cora and the F.O. know things we can't dream of. Is there a reasonable hypothesis that explains Kiké as #1? Do folks remember Kevin Millar dramatically opening his stance (on 7/21/04) and hitting .563 / .600 / 1.756 in his first 8 games, including a 3-homer game the day before the A-Rod / 'Tek / Mo / Mueller game? The new stance apparently turned his old cold zones into hot zones. They had no idea how to pitch to him. Once they figured him out, the results were no better than the old stance, so he reverted. A more relevant example is the one I found for Marwin Gonzalez in 2017, which is somewhere in these pages (search doesn't work between 12/20 and 2/27). But the short version is that he had a 101 wRC+ in his three previous seasons, had a 166 in 2017 through July 18, and 109 the rest of the way. Guys who change their approach can become dramatically better hitters, for at least a while until the league figures them out. Now, we know that they have Kiké working on his approach, hunting fastballs earlier in the count and chasing less often when ahead. Neither of those are outside-the-box ideas. But let's hypothesize that they have another idea for him, that he's working on, that is creative, which is to say it's something the Dodgers never thought of. They wouldn't talk about it. It's outside the box, so it's not something other teams could figure out by essentially guessing and then looking. If it's subtle, it's going to be hard to pick up just by watching him. It could be, for instance, a slight swing adjustment that closes some existing holes in the zone. An adjustment like that might take the opposition, say, nearly four months to figure out.
Yup. Marwin Gonzalez was the second best hitter on the Astros through July 28th, after Altuve (176) and ahead of Springer and Correa (161, 158). Really! So we know this can happen. And that's ignoring Cora's presence in Houston in 2017. This has to be it, right? These guys are not crazy or stupid. Kiké has 8 BB and 5 SO this spring; the rest of the regulars have 26 BB and 70 SO. He may not be able to sustain this -- Marwin didn't -- but in the short term, it makes solid sense.
So a guess at the order vs. RHP as it currently stands. The first 5 guys are from Sunday: 1. Hernandez, the New Thing 2. Verdugo, down 1 spot from expectation 3. Martinez, where you'd expect 4. Bogaerts, excellent spot for him 5. Devers, moved down 1, which puts 2 lefty-killers between him and Verdugo, solving the biggest thing that bugged me. Also not a bad idea as he's been a slow starter. 6. Vazquez? Cora said 7th earlier. He hit here on Saturday, but that with Devers 4th. 7. Dalbec? process of elimination. He hasn't hit as high as 6th on a day with mostly regulars, I don't think.
8. Cordero (or if he's on the IL, Gonzalez or Renfroe). Hit 7th on Saturday when Devers hit 4th. Keeps the 2 RHB between them.
9. Arroyo. Good no-pressure spot for him. You don't want him 6 or 7 because of his reverse split.
Now, this can be shuffled with 1 through 5 being Verdugo, Xander, Kiké, Devers, JDM. That would move Franchy up to 7 and Vazquez or Dalbec down to 8. Kiké still gets to bat in the first inning per his preference, only now he gets to size up, from the on-deck circle, the SP working on Xander. I wouldn't mind seeing that shuffle as soon as Devers finds his groove. But in the meantime, the Trust Bloom and Trust Cora principles say this actually makes sense. And that they've been planning on Kiké as leadoff from the beginning suggests that there is some clever analysis behind that, e.g., a generic tendency for pitchers to [redacted] that Kiké is ideally suited to exploit.
Perhaps he had Hunter Renfroe in mind for #6 in the order. That's a possibility, as bad as that sounds. Hernandez is probably the starting 2b and Renfroe right now is probably the starting RF, even against righties as much as it pains me to type that. My guess is that he has Renfroe 6th, Vazquez 7th, Cordero 8th (Gonzalez will probably start the season in LF batting 8th), and then Dalbec 9th. I wouldn't expect that order to hold up for long. I would anticipate as Dalbec is crushing homers (and striking out), he'll be elevated to the #6 spot. Frankly I wouldn't be completely shocked if he wound up 4th at some point in the season should JDM fail to rebound (with X batting 3rd). I would think that eventually Duran forces his way up and the days of Renfroe starting against righties finally go away (and yes there could be some days where Arroyo is playing 2b and Kiké either CF or RF if/when Renfroe struggles against righties. That's probably when Dalbec gets elevated in the order, probably batting 6th, if not sooner. First ... can we refrain from people replying in a thread about X that X doesn't worry them, but Y does, so that the thread gets completely hijacked? If that thought occurs to you ... just go to the proper thread and say the exact same thing.
As for a replying to an off-topic post, hit quote / reply, highlight the whole thing, cut it, and paste it into a reply on the proper thread. It's six extra keystrokes (including one to kill the now-empty reply in the incorrect thread).
To go back on topic, I looked at the previous 8 games. Including today, Kiké has started at 2B 5 times and in CF twice. But I don't think they're quite in the stage where they treat ST like the regular season, as opposed to sometimes playing guys at positions where they want to get a look, or the player has something to work on, or just guys the day off.
They've started Kiké in CF, Arroyo at 2B or SS (when X was out), and Renfroe on the bench twice. They've started Kiké at 2B, Renfroe in RF, and Arroyo on the bench twice. So that's equal usage of the two competing configurations.
Kiké's gotten 7 starts, Renfroe 6 (including 1 at DH), and Arroyo 5. I don't think that keeping Arroyo on the roster when they have Santana in the wings and Chavis as an alternative makes sense unless he gets at least as much PT vs. RHP as Renfroe does, and so far, there's no strong trend away from 50/50.
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