Iâts just a guess but this could be the lineup Bloom, Cora & company vision vs RH/LH to get through August?
Kiki
Schwarber
Bogaerts
Devers
Martinez
Verdugo
Renfroe
Vazquez
Cordero/Dalbec
Bench
Plawecki
Arroyo
Duran
Back in September
Gonzalez
Chavis
Santana
I hope there are more moves to be made. 9 hrs till the deadline!
I have the same first 8 guys. They pretty much seem to write themselves.
But I don't think they go to 13 pitchers, so after adding Plawecki and Arroyo, there are only two spots left for Franchy, Duran, and Dalbec if everyone is healthy. More on that in a moment.
Now, the more I look at this trade, the more I think it really works only if Schwarber plays 1B. And I think that's very likely. I can't imagine a former catcher who has become a LF not taking some infield at 1B, even if just out of curiosity. But it's being a good teammate, too, covering for an oddball situation. And I don't think Maddon puts him at 1B in a crucial situation unless he has had some familiarity there.
The reason you want this alignment is simple: the OF defense with Schwarber in LF vs. RHP is really bad. You have to play Verdugo in CF (or in RF with Renfroe in CF), and you're below average at two positions. And OF defense is really important ... you're talking about turning outs into doubles or vice versa.
If Schwarber is at first, you have the option of playing Arroyo at 2B, Kiké in CF, and Verduo in LF, and that's a tremendous defensive alignment. The offensive downgrade -- from Franchy or, less likely, Duran, to Arroyo -- is often going to be less than the defensive upgrade.
So I think that the 9 hole vs. RHP is a platoon between Arroyo and Franchy (or less likely, Duran).
But the big question is who plays against LHP. Subtract Schwarber and Verdugo from the top 8 and add Arroyo, so you are looking at 2 of:
Schwarber
Verdugo
Franchy
Duran
Dalbec
with the joker in the deck being that it's likely that either Duran or Dalbec is in AAA.
Now, Schwarber this year has a .340 xwOBA vs. LHP. .347 in his hot streak / transformation. He's .320 over the last 3 years. So he stays (as you'd expect, but I wanted to run the numbers).
Verdugo in 2019 and 2020 had a .279 xwOBA with a crazy .351 wOBA. This year he's at .285 xwOBA with a backwards crazy .228 wOBA. But overall he's .288 expected, .299 actual. He really should be sitting against most LHP.
The problem, of course, is that we have very little data for the other three options ... but Dalbec has 162 PA this year and is .327 expected, .347 actual. So I think he stays up and plays 1B against LHP:
Kiké, CF
Schwarber, LF
Bogaerts
Devers
Martinez
Renfroe
Arroyo, 2B
Vazquez
Dalbec, 1B
Franchy and Duran are somewhat redundant, so Duran being the odd man out, just for a couple of weeks, is OK.
So the two platoons would be:
Franchy (LF) and Arroyo (2B), with Kiké switching between 2B and CF, and Verdugo switching from CF to LF versus RHP. They might try Renfroe in CF and Verdugo in RF in the Franchy, bat-heavy lineup vs. RHP.
Verdugo (OF) and Dalbec (1B), with Schwarber moving to LF.
Once Duran returns on 9/1 you have even more tasty options.