SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
2021-22 International Signing Period
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 21, 2022 15:46:33 GMT -5
Jesse Sanchez has the bonuses for the 16 known signings: Fraymi De Leon, SS, Dominican Republic -- $1,200,000 Freili Encarnacion, SS, Dominican Republic -- $1,100,000 Johanfran Garcia, C, Venezuela -- $850,000 Jancel Santana, SS, Dominican Republic -- $600,000 Natanael Yuten, CF, Dominican Republic -- $400,000 Franyer Noria, SS, Venezuela -- $265,000 Willian Colmenares, RHS, Venezuela -- $125,000 Yosander Asencio, SS, Dominican Republic -- $85,000 Marvin Alcantara, SS, Venezuela -- $30,000 Natanael Eusebio, CF, Dominican Republic -- $10,000 Dennis Reguillo, RHS, Dominican Republic -- $10,000 Yohander Linarez, SS, Venezuela -- $10,000 Denison Sanchez, RHS, Venezuela -- $10,000 Inmer Lobo, LHS, Venezuela -- $10,000 Luis Cohen, RHS, Venezuela -- $10,000 Darlyn De La Cruz, RHS, Dominican Republic -- $8,000 www.mlb.com/news/red-sox-2022-international-prospectsThat leaves $524,700 in pool money for the rest of the signing period. Hmm interesting. In other years most January/July signings were 50K+, with lower figure bonuses being handed out towards the end of the signing period. Good observation. There def were more 10k signings this year than usual for the first month. Last year the VAST majority of money they spent was in January. I guess the period before they had to wait until August to sign Johnfrank Salazar for 400k, then September to get Francis Hernandez for 142k. Might be they need to wait on someone to turn 16.
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Jan 21, 2022 16:57:26 GMT -5
Hmm interesting. In other years most January/July signings were 50K+, with lower figure bonuses being handed out towards the end of the signing period. Good observation. There def were more 10k signings this year than usual for the first month. Last year the VAST majority of money they spent was in January. I guess the period before they had to wait until August to sign Johnfrank Salazar for 400k, then September to get Francis Hernandez for 142k. Might be they need to wait on someone to turn 16. Yeah I was just looking into this too. For last year's class, they spent only $162,500 after January not including $10K bonuses or less. The year before, Salazar's bonus wasn't official until August, but his agreement was announced with the rest of the July 2 guys so I would count him as part of the initial wave of signings. Liu was clearly after though and like you said Francis Hernandez and some additional $50K or less types. You'd have to think they had some idea about Liu though....I doubt they'd just leave $1M around just in case a guy like him popped up. To that end, I wonder if there is already a plan in place to spend the remaining $500k or if they figure it could work out to their advantage to outbid other teams w/ less financial flexibility for any pop-up guys between now and December.
|
|
|
Post by soxfanatic on Jan 21, 2022 17:41:39 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by lennsakata on Jan 22, 2022 0:08:55 GMT -5
Any shareable reports/snippets on Yuten, Santana or any others outside the top 50 guys from anyone yet?
|
|
|
Post by RedSoxStats on Jan 22, 2022 0:36:37 GMT -5
Any shareable reports/snippets on Yuten, Santana or any others outside the top 50 guys from anyone yet?
|
|
|
Post by jaffinator on Jan 22, 2022 20:15:39 GMT -5
Dominguez has pretty much been this year's poster boy for why I prefer spreading things around several baskets. This time last year, he was the next Acuna. Late in the season, his struggles with basic skills suggested a much longer timetable than previously thought. Post season, reports of his thickening up (read chubby) downgraded his speed from plus to average and projected position from CF to corner outfield. Additionally, for whatever reason. his plus arm suddenly became average. Now, he's in nobody's top 100 and his absolute ceiling is now everyday regular. Well put (above) Chris I think you might be overstating Dominguez's fall slightly. I know Baseball America updated recently and has him dropping to 87. Baseball Prospectus I think updated recently as well and has him out of their top 100 altogether. Also don't know if it's reasonable to say that his absolute ceiling is everyday regular, but he certainly doesn't have the shine he once had, and yes, is an example as to why it's hard to project 15 year olds.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 23, 2022 10:30:03 GMT -5
Dominguez has pretty much been this year's poster boy for why I prefer spreading things around several baskets. This time last year, he was the next Acuna. Late in the season, his struggles with basic skills suggested a much longer timetable than previously thought. Post season, reports of his thickening up (read chubby) downgraded his speed from plus to average and projected position from CF to corner outfield. Additionally, for whatever reason. his plus arm suddenly became average. Now, he's in nobody's top 100 and his absolute ceiling is now everyday regular. Well put (above) Chris I think you might be overstating Dominguez's fall slightly. I know Baseball America updated recently and has him dropping to 87. Baseball Prospectus I think updated recently as well and has him out of their top 100 altogether. Also don't know if it's reasonable to say that his absolute ceiling is everyday regular, but he certainly doesn't have the shine he once had, and yes, is an example as to why it's hard to project 15 year olds. Last November: Baseball America reports that Dominguez’s body has “changed” since he signed with the Yankees, becoming a much more “stockier” player. It adds that his running speed has already dipped from outstanding to “closer to average” and that his arm strength has also “backed up.” The publication also cites concerns that Dominguez might have to move from center field to a corner outfield position as he continues to mature.
“There’s quite a bit of polish still to apply, but Dominguez still could reach a ceiling of MLB regular,” Baseball America reported. www.nj.com/yankees/2021/11/martian-falling-to-earth-yankees-jasson-dominguez-slips-slightly-in-prospect-rankings.htmlI missed that he made #87 in BA. Being fair (not an IFA), the Red Sox have Jeter Downs.
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Jan 24, 2022 11:58:56 GMT -5
Franyer Noria played last year at the age of 16 in the Liga Mayor de Béisbol Profesional of Venezuela (younger than all of his teammates). I believe this is footage (here's the link if video doesn't show below) of him doubling in his first VZ pro at-bat:
|
|
|
Post by prospectlove on Jan 24, 2022 18:40:46 GMT -5
Again, they spend up to the cap and have traded for more money every year that they could, so it doesn't make sense to put Henry's name into the conversation. They're spending the money. Also, your list doesn't really make sense. Some of those guys didn't even get 1M. Some (Puason) are good arguments AGAINST the big bonus strategy because they don't look like they're going to pan out: Puason was awful last year. Erick Peña and Wilman Diaz had bad debuts too. I'm not sure anymore what your point is. You want them to be right more? They're guessing on 15-year-olds. It's a crap shoot. By the way, you're gonna want to type your post after the word "/quote" that's in brackets - it's very hard to read your posts that quote other posts. Sorry for the confusion. I wanted to respond as I like the discussion. My computer doesn't show the "/quote" marks for whatever reason and just allows me to type right after the quote from previous person that I'm responding to. I'll try to make it better on my end though. So I realize I put some players in the list who haven't done great. (Diaz and Puason). However, I still think last year for example, both of those players could have been atleast involved in trades for something of value to the Red Sox. Although we don't know for sure, I don't feel that the current list of international guys the red sox have in their system would bring any impact players to the roster via trade. I think they could be throw ins for sure, but they wouldn't add a Max Scherzer and be the headliner of the trade nor will any of them make the top 100 lists (or could be predicted to). I truly believe the red sox international program has fallen and is failing the team, given as you said they do spend all of their money. They don't have the prospects coming out of it!! The impact just isn't there, yet they continue to spend the money. So if that's the case (versus other teams) the question is why? One conclusion COULD be that the red sox aren't spending on high end talent, be that because they aren't able to identify that high end talent during the younger years, don't want to spend that much money, feel their way is better than others, or ownership mandate not to go over a set amount per player (that's what I meant by Henry). I really don't know what it is, but I don't see the talent being generated by international that once was (Moncada, Devers, Xander, Margot, Espinosa). Espinosa didn't work out but he got a quality at that time number 3 starter for him in trade (that's value). Again, I hope I know nothing. I hope the Red Sox spit out prospects like they once were. And I realize they lost some years of players when they were under restrictions AND they lost a big one due to unfortunate circumstances. But since that tragedy we have not seen the sox able to produce impact names or talent, while I would argue MANY/MOST of the other teams have been able to. (Tigers, Brewers, Reds, Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Mets, Rangers, A's, Angels, Blue Jays, Cubs) and I could keep naming the teams. Small market, medium market and large market teams are producing a lot better than the red sox, unless I'm missing something over the past 5 years. (Since Devers or Moncada) really. So then my discussion point becomes why? And what can change? Is it scouts? Is it amount of money spent?? Is it cost per player being spent?? Is it how they allocate their funds?? If you don't agree with the conclusion, then the second part is moot. I would LOVE to read where I'm wrong and what I'm missing. If you do, then that's fully where my discussion of signing "bigger" name players comes in. Again, I'M COMPLETELY open to being wrong here and off base.
|
|
|
Post by greatscottcooper on Jan 25, 2022 8:05:26 GMT -5
Again, they spend up to the cap and have traded for more money every year that they could, so it doesn't make sense to put Henry's name into the conversation. They're spending the money. Also, your list doesn't really make sense. Some of those guys didn't even get 1M. Some (Puason) are good arguments AGAINST the big bonus strategy because they don't look like they're going to pan out: Puason was awful last year. Erick Peña and Wilman Diaz had bad debuts too. I'm not sure anymore what your point is. You want them to be right more? They're guessing on 15-year-olds. It's a crap shoot. By the way, you're gonna want to type your post after the word "/quote" that's in brackets - it's very hard to read your posts that quote other posts. Sorry for the confusion. I wanted to respond as I like the discussion. My computer doesn't show the "/quote" marks for whatever reason and just allows me to type right after the quote from previous person that I'm responding to. I'll try to make it better on my end though. So I realize I put some players in the list who haven't done great. (Diaz and Puason). However, I still think last year for example, both of those players could have been atleast involved in trades for something of value to the Red Sox. Although we don't know for sure, I don't feel that the current list of international guys the red sox have in their system would bring any impact players to the roster via trade. I think they could be throw ins for sure, but they wouldn't add a Max Scherzer and be the headliner of the trade nor will any of them make the top 100 lists (or could be predicted to). I truly believe the red sox international program has fallen and is failing the team, given as you said they do spend all of their money. They don't have the prospects coming out of it!! The impact just isn't there, yet they continue to spend the money. So if that's the case (versus other teams) the question is why? One conclusion COULD be that the red sox aren't spending on high end talent, be that because they aren't able to identify that high end talent during the younger years, don't want to spend that much money, feel their way is better than others, or ownership mandate not to go over a set amount per player (that's what I meant by Henry). I really don't know what it is, but I don't see the talent being generated by international that once was (Moncada, Devers, Xander, Margot, Espinosa). Espinosa didn't work out but he got a quality at that time number 3 starter for him in trade (that's value). Again, I hope I know nothing. I hope the Red Sox spit out prospects like they once were. And I realize they lost some years of players when they were under restrictions AND they lost a big one due to unfortunate circumstances. But since that tragedy we have not seen the sox able to produce impact names or talent, while I would argue MANY/MOST of the other teams have been able to. (Tigers, Brewers, Reds, Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Mets, Rangers, A's, Angels, Blue Jays, Cubs) and I could keep naming the teams. Small market, medium market and large market teams are producing a lot better than the red sox, unless I'm missing something over the past 5 years. (Since Devers or Moncada) really. So then my discussion point becomes why? And what can change? Is it scouts? Is it amount of money spent?? Is it cost per player being spent?? Is it how they allocate their funds?? If you don't agree with the conclusion, then the second part is moot. I would LOVE to read where I'm wrong and what I'm missing. If you do, then that's fully where my discussion of signing "bigger" name players comes in. Again, I'M COMPLETELY open to being wrong here and off base. If you take out the year the Sox lost the ability to sign anyone due to penalities, which is fair because.....they couldn't actually sign anyone, you're left with the the 2018 period. Those 2018 kids were around 20 years old last season, 20 with a lost year of development. Just because the Sox don't have a 20 year old phenom on their team right now doesn't mean their system is failing them, FAR from it. And the next year brought them Bello and Jimenez who look like pretty darn good prospets and the best player signed that year died tragically. That was a pretty darn good haul, so we are looking forward to 2019 and beyond? 16 year old kids who have played a year in an orgnizaition maybe 1.5, players who will be 18 maybe 19 this year??? We are going to call the Sox system a failure because we don't have the next Harper swinging his way into the majors at 19? If you want to work backwards from when they were penalized their record is absolutely stellar so we can just leave that at that. No offense, but your post just screams I'm a spoiled Sox fan who expects star caliber players being brought into the team every year. I don't mean that as an insult, because I am literally the same exact way. Full disclosure, I'm a spoiled Sox fan I'm just fully aware of it my friend. "A fisherman always recognizes another fisherman from afar"
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 25, 2022 9:43:27 GMT -5
prospectlove, with all due respect, I do think you're off-base. Three things I'd say in response: 1) As previously mentioned, there's a prospect "bubble" of sorts for the two years they were restricted because they'd gone bonkers the previous year and then were punished for package deals. Honestly, the fact that they got Mata in that first class is something of a miracle. If you want to ding them a bit for getting punished, then fine, but based on what I've heard, they were made an example of when they did something most teams were doing. 2) I think you're overestimating the trade value of the large bonus guys who stunk last year. It's not like teams aren't sending scouts to see these guys and are just going to be impressed by their bonus. Would you also think that Antoni Flores would've been a useful trade chip during the 2019 season when he was struggling so mightily in Lowell? I would say no. 3) I can tell you that other teams like some of the IFAs who are percolating in the low-minors right now. Ian's Scout Chatter pieces on a lot of those guys are required reading. Bleis getting called "the real deal" for example. Lira, Lopez, Vaughan, Wilkelman Gonzalez, Paulino, Chacon, Garcia, and some of the other arms who will come stateside are some who come to mind. You just need to be patient, particularly considering how hard these guys were particularly hit by losing the 2020 season (consider that not being able to work out at the Academy would've been particularly hard for guys abroad, as compared to draftees in the U.S. who might've had access to top-notch training facilities on their own. I'm not saying that the Red Sox IFA program is infallible and is above critique. But "the red sox international program has fallen and is failing the team" is nonsense. As multiple folks have now pointed out, you're failing entirely to account for two seasons in which they were first essentially, then literally banned from signing anyone, the first part of that being part of the cost of going all-in to get Moncada, precisely the sort of impact talent you're talking about. I also think you need to show your work when talking about all of these organizations that are churning out international talent in a way the Red Sox aren't, because I don't think you're comparing the organizations apples-to-apples here.
|
|
|
Post by prospectlove on Jan 25, 2022 11:35:23 GMT -5
Sorry for the confusion. I wanted to respond as I like the discussion. My computer doesn't show the "/quote" marks for whatever reason and just allows me to type right after the quote from previous person that I'm responding to. I'll try to make it better on my end though. So I realize I put some players in the list who haven't done great. (Diaz and Puason). However, I still think last year for example, both of those players could have been atleast involved in trades for something of value to the Red Sox. Although we don't know for sure, I don't feel that the current list of international guys the red sox have in their system would bring any impact players to the roster via trade. I think they could be throw ins for sure, but they wouldn't add a Max Scherzer and be the headliner of the trade nor will any of them make the top 100 lists (or could be predicted to). I truly believe the red sox international program has fallen and is failing the team, given as you said they do spend all of their money. They don't have the prospects coming out of it!! The impact just isn't there, yet they continue to spend the money. So if that's the case (versus other teams) the question is why? One conclusion COULD be that the red sox aren't spending on high end talent, be that because they aren't able to identify that high end talent during the younger years, don't want to spend that much money, feel their way is better than others, or ownership mandate not to go over a set amount per player (that's what I meant by Henry). I really don't know what it is, but I don't see the talent being generated by international that once was (Moncada, Devers, Xander, Margot, Espinosa). Espinosa didn't work out but he got a quality at that time number 3 starter for him in trade (that's value). Again, I hope I know nothing. I hope the Red Sox spit out prospects like they once were. And I realize they lost some years of players when they were under restrictions AND they lost a big one due to unfortunate circumstances. But since that tragedy we have not seen the sox able to produce impact names or talent, while I would argue MANY/MOST of the other teams have been able to. (Tigers, Brewers, Reds, Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Mets, Rangers, A's, Angels, Blue Jays, Cubs) and I could keep naming the teams. Small market, medium market and large market teams are producing a lot better than the red sox, unless I'm missing something over the past 5 years. (Since Devers or Moncada) really. So then my discussion point becomes why? And what can change? Is it scouts? Is it amount of money spent?? Is it cost per player being spent?? Is it how they allocate their funds?? If you don't agree with the conclusion, then the second part is moot. I would LOVE to read where I'm wrong and what I'm missing. If you do, then that's fully where my discussion of signing "bigger" name players comes in. Again, I'M COMPLETELY open to being wrong here and off base. If you take out the year the Sox lost the ability to sign anyone due to penalities, which is fair because.....they couldn't actually sign anyone, you're left with the the 2018 period. Those 2018 kids were around 20 years old last season, 20 with a lost year of development. Just because the Sox don't have a 20 year old phenom on their team right now doesn't mean their system is failing them, FAR from it. And the next year brought them Bello and Jimenez who look like pretty darn good prospets and the best player signed that year died tragically. That was a pretty darn good haul, so we are looking forward to 2019 and beyond? 16 year old kids who have played a year in an orgnizaition maybe 1.5, players who will be 18 maybe 19 this year??? We are going to call the Sox system a failure because we don't have the next Harper swinging his way into the majors at 19? If you want to work backwards from when they were penalized their record is absolutely stellar so we can just leave that at that. No offense, but your post just screams I'm a spoiled Sox fan who expects star caliber players being brought into the team every year. I don't mean that as an insult, because I am literally the same exact way. Full disclosure, I'm a spoiled Sox fan I'm just fully aware of it my friend. "A fisherman always recognizes another fisherman from afar" -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Couple points and I don't want to keep beating around the same bush. Jimenez wasn't even protected by Red Sox this year. Bello is ranked as a possible reliever. (possible starter but not definite starter). That's NOT what I hope for them to get out of a class. But I'm not just looking at one class and I honestly dug through every single teams top 10 prospects. Literally every single one. In that I looked at international signings and when they had signed. I don't want to use space, but we just don't measure up to roughly 75-80% of the other teams out there in regards to where their international guys rank, from small market to mid market to large market. Now in doing this I understand I used a site that isn't as well known as say fangraphs (because they don't have all their teams posted yet). But if we look at fangraphs and the teams they have posted here are the teams and players who would top our top international guy: Phillies- Rojas Brewers- Jeferson Quero, Felix Valero, Hedbert Perez (not in top 10) Cubs- Cristian Hernadez Arizona- Gerald Perdoma, Deyvious De Los Santos Toronto- Ornelvis Martinez, Gabriel Moreno, Oakland- Pedro Pineda (Blies might compare to him) Angels- Arol Vera (is he really that good?) Tigers- Christian Santana Yankees- Pereza, Medina, Dominguez, Vargas, etc etc So these are the teams fangraphs has done for their top 10's. I highlight them because every single one of those teams accept Angels, I would argue have better international prospects than the red sox. I used Razzball again to look at all of the teams. We just don't stack up. (Please look yourself and tell me I'm wrong or how I'm wrong). So NO I'm not trying to be all spoiled on Red Sox...and I'm trying to look at several ranking sources (both industry based and because all of teams are shown non industry based). I just don't see it. We spend the money but don't turn out prospects (buy yeah again right now today I don't see Bello or Jimenez as definitions of players I would want to hang my international hat on over the past 5 years). We should be able to do better.
|
|
|
Post by prospectlove on Jan 25, 2022 11:40:01 GMT -5
prospectlove , with all due respect, I do think you're off-base. Three things I'd say in response: 1) As previously mentioned, there's a prospect "bubble" of sorts for the two years they were restricted because they'd gone bonkers the previous year and then were punished for package deals. Honestly, the fact that they got Mata in that first class is something of a miracle. If you want to ding them a bit for getting punished, then fine, but based on what I've heard, they were made an example of when they did something most teams were doing. 2) I think you're overestimating the trade value of the large bonus guys who stunk last year. It's not like teams aren't sending scouts to see these guys and are just going to be impressed by their bonus. Would you also think that Antoni Flores would've been a useful trade chip during the 2019 season when he was struggling so mightily in Lowell? I would say no. 3) I can tell you that other teams like some of the IFAs who are percolating in the low-minors right now. Ian's Scout Chatter pieces on a lot of those guys are required reading. Bleis getting called "the real deal" for example. Lira, Lopez, Vaughan, Wilkelman Gonzalez, Paulino, Chacon, Garcia, and some of the other arms who will come stateside are some who come to mind. You just need to be patient, particularly considering how hard these guys were particularly hit by losing the 2020 season (consider that not being able to work out at the Academy would've been particularly hard for guys abroad, as compared to draftees in the U.S. who might've had access to top-notch training facilities on their own. I'm not saying that the Red Sox IFA program is infallible and is above critique. But "the red sox international program has fallen and is failing the team" is nonsense. As multiple folks have now pointed out, you're failing entirely to account for two seasons in which they were first essentially, then literally banned from signing anyone, the first part of that being part of the cost of going all-in to get Moncada, precisely the sort of impact talent you're talking about. I also think you need to show your work when talking about all of these organizations that are churning out international talent in a way the Red Sox aren't, because I don't think you're comparing the organizations apples-to-apples here. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Chris: Please know I mean this discussion in all respect and NOT defensive or saying hey I know all I'm all right type mentality. The bold faced statement above...I AGREE WITH. That's why I say right now I'm more concerned; but hope I'm proven wrong this year. And make no mistake I've spent my own coin in the arguement (I collect cards and have invested in many Bleis cards to tune of $500 plus so I think he could be the guy to prove my concern wrong). As for the showing...please see my above post. I tried to show where I dig this information from without taking time to list every team and player and how I see atleast one player above Red Sox rankings over this time period.
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Jan 25, 2022 13:12:39 GMT -5
I'll weigh in a little bit. ProspectLove -- first let me say that I think a discussion as to whether its best to spread around a capped bonus pool or allocate something like 60% or more to a single player is a totally valid discussion to have. I honestly don't have a strong opinion as to what's the better approach although I probably lean toward spreading it. That said, there are some points brought up by others that aren't quite making it into your side of the debate.
First -- in terms of the prospects you named via Fangraphs....a number of them (Gabriel Moreno, Luis Medina, Oswald Peraza, Geraldo Perdomo, etc.) were signed as early as 2016 and even 2015. Those are the years for which we were under the penalty so that doesn't seem quite like a fair comparison.
Second -- are these groups of prospects better than our own once you limit the prospect pool to those from the 2017-2018 class or newer? Also, I hate to bring up the tragedy....but say we had a stud catcher in Daniel Flores in the system....is a grouping of Flores, Bello, Wilkelman, Bleis, Jimenez clearly below those groups? It doesn't seem that clear to me.
Third -- you bring up trade value quite a bit. I'd point out that Aldo Ramirez on his own just netted us the most productive offensive acquisition of this past trade deadline so that has to count for something no? Again, he was the only guy in that trade (not just a 3rd piece) so thats pretty valuable. A number of others (Noelberth Romero, Elio Prado, Angeudis Santos to name a few) have been involved in smaller, and yes sometimes inconsequential trades....but its still value and it still brings back a return even if that return is Andrew Cashner. If you only want to talk about trades for the Max Scherzers of the world, I mean the list of international guys who could warrant that type of return is pretty small.
|
|
|
Post by myleskennefick on Jan 25, 2022 13:36:12 GMT -5
If you take out the year the Sox lost the ability to sign anyone due to penalities, which is fair because.....they couldn't actually sign anyone, you're left with the the 2018 period. Those 2018 kids were around 20 years old last season, 20 with a lost year of development. Just because the Sox don't have a 20 year old phenom on their team right now doesn't mean their system is failing them, FAR from it. And the next year brought them Bello and Jimenez who look like pretty darn good prospets and the best player signed that year died tragically. That was a pretty darn good haul, so we are looking forward to 2019 and beyond? 16 year old kids who have played a year in an orgnizaition maybe 1.5, players who will be 18 maybe 19 this year??? We are going to call the Sox system a failure because we don't have the next Harper swinging his way into the majors at 19? If you want to work backwards from when they were penalized their record is absolutely stellar so we can just leave that at that. No offense, but your post just screams I'm a spoiled Sox fan who expects star caliber players being brought into the team every year. I don't mean that as an insult, because I am literally the same exact way. Full disclosure, I'm a spoiled Sox fan I'm just fully aware of it my friend. "A fisherman always recognizes another fisherman from afar" -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Couple points and I don't want to keep beating around the same bush. Jimenez wasn't even protected by Red Sox this year. Bello is ranked as a possible reliever. (possible starter but not definite starter). That's NOT what I hope for them to get out of a class. But I'm not just looking at one class and I honestly dug through every single teams top 10 prospects. Literally every single one. In that I looked at international signings and when they had signed. I don't want to use space, but we just don't measure up to roughly 75-80% of the other teams out there in regards to where their international guys rank, from small market to mid market to large market. Now in doing this I understand I used a site that isn't as well known as say fangraphs (because they don't have all their teams posted yet). But if we look at fangraphs and the teams they have posted here are the teams and players who would top our top international guy: Phillies- Rojas Brewers- Jeferson Quero, Felix Valero, Hedbert Perez (not in top 10) Cubs- Cristian Hernadez Arizona- Gerald Perdoma, Deyvious De Los Santos Toronto- Ornelvis Martinez, Gabriel Moreno, Oakland- Pedro Pineda (Blies might compare to him) Angels- Arol Vera (is he really that good?) Tigers- Christian Santana Yankees- Pereza, Medina, Dominguez, Vargas, etc etc So these are the teams fangraphs has done for their top 10's. I highlight them because every single one of those teams accept Angels, I would argue have better international prospects than the red sox. I used Razzball again to look at all of the teams. We just don't stack up. (Please look yourself and tell me I'm wrong or how I'm wrong). So NO I'm not trying to be all spoiled on Red Sox...and I'm trying to look at several ranking sources (both industry based and because all of teams are shown non industry based). I just don't see it. We spend the money but don't turn out prospects (buy yeah again right now today I don't see Bello or Jimenez as definitions of players I would want to hang my international hat on over the past 5 years). We should be able to do better. Razzball is a fantasy sports website and ranks prospects through that lens. Case in point, their write up of Gilerto: 8. OF Gilberto Jimenez | 21 | A | 2024 Bit of a surprise this week as Jimenez was left off the 40-man roster and exposed to the Rule 5 draft. Click here to read more about Bloom’s thinking on that front. For the time being, we’ll leave Jimenez on the Red Sox, where he has to crack the top ten for fantasy purposes. The lost year cost him some of his age-to-level advantage, so he’ll be near the average when he opens 2022 in A+. In 96 games this year, the 5’11” 212 lb centerfielder slashed .306/.346/.405 with 3 HR and 13 SB. He also hit 16 doubles and six triples, but those numbers and his slash line are a little inflated by his double plus speed and opposite-field approach. He still needs to learn how to incorporate his base into every swing, but that makes sense. He’s a young switch hitter who only started hitting lefty a few years ago. Lots of growth potential here. Probably worth your while to check in and find out if the Rule 5 situation has created a little buying opportunity in your leagues. Link: razzball.com/boston-red-sox-top-10-prospects-for-2022-fantasy-baseball/
|
|
|
Post by prospectlove on Jan 25, 2022 17:36:31 GMT -5
I'll weigh in a little bit. ProspectLove -- first let me say that I think a discussion as to whether its best to spread around a capped bonus pool or allocate something like 60% or more to a single player is a totally valid discussion to have. I honestly don't have a strong opinion as to what's the better approach although I probably lean toward spreading it. That said, there are some points brought up by others that aren't quite making it into your side of the debate. First -- in terms of the prospects you named via Fangraphs....a number of them (Gabriel Moreno, Luis Medina, Oswald Peraza, Geraldo Perdomo, etc.) were signed as early as 2016 and even 2015. Those are the years for which we were under the penalty so that doesn't seem quite like a fair comparison. Second -- are these groups of prospects better than our own once you limit the prospect pool to those from the 2017-2018 class or newer? Also, I hate to bring up the tragedy....but say we had a stud catcher in Daniel Flores in the system....is a grouping of Flores, Bello, Wilkelman, Bleis, Jimenez clearly below those groups? It doesn't seem that clear to me. Third -- you bring up trade value quite a bit. I'd point out that Aldo Ramirez on his own just netted us the most productive offensive acquisition of this past trade deadline so that has to count for something no? Again, he was the only guy in that trade (not just a 3rd piece) so thats pretty valuable. A number of others (Noelberth Romero, Elio Prado, Angeudis Santos to name a few) have been involved in smaller, and yes sometimes inconsequential trades....but its still value and it still brings back a return even if that return is Andrew Cashner. If you only want to talk about trades for the Max Scherzers of the world, I mean the list of international guys who could warrant that type of return is pretty small. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Second Point- It would all depend on Flores, I don't feel like the others in this group RIGHT NOW are highly ranked. Jimenez wasn't even protected in their 40 man roster. Again, this can change this year for sure. Third point- Yes Ramirez was used as the only piece to acquire a nice piece at the trade deadline. Ruiz (the catcher from the Nationals) was the centerpiece of that trade for Max. Aldo Ramirez after the entirety of the season is the 20th ranked prospect for the Nationals. We don't know who else was interested and that traded player was going to be a free agent with no compensation eligible back. (Ie he didn't hold a ton of value ). Now we scouted that player well and it was a great trade, but who we traded for him wasn't a hot shot international guy. To put this another way: Could any of our international guys be used as the centerpiece to acquire any of the Oakland A's guys who could be traded or some of the Reds players who might be dealt this off season?? I certainly would argue no, not as the centerpiece. Jimenez isn't going to make any team move us to the front of the line because we are offering our top international prospect to them. Again- I'm not so sure that this year couldn't make all of this a moot concern. And it's simply an observation and concern and why I argue we should be do something different.
|
|
|
Post by prospectlove on Jan 25, 2022 17:58:34 GMT -5
Razzball is a fantasy sports website and ranks prospects through that lens. Case in point, their write up of Gilerto: 8. OF Gilberto Jimenez | 21 | A | 2024 Bit of a surprise this week as Jimenez was left off the 40-man roster and exposed to the Rule 5 draft. Click here to read more about Bloom’s thinking on that front. For the time being, we’ll leave Jimenez on the Red Sox, where he has to crack the top ten for fantasy purposes. The lost year cost him some of his age-to-level advantage, so he’ll be near the average when he opens 2022 in A+. In 96 games this year, the 5’11” 212 lb centerfielder slashed .306/.346/.405 with 3 HR and 13 SB. He also hit 16 doubles and six triples, but those numbers and his slash line are a little inflated by his double plus speed and opposite-field approach. He still needs to learn how to incorporate his base into every swing, but that makes sense. He’s a young switch hitter who only started hitting lefty a few years ago. Lots of growth potential here. Probably worth your while to check in and find out if the Rule 5 situation has created a little buying opportunity in your leagues. Link: razzball.com/boston-red-sox-top-10-prospects-for-2022-fantasy-baseball/------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ I agree Razzball isn't the best use. But they have ranked all teams in MLB right now and you can look at those lists. Fantasy sports lists and fangraphs often have players ranked close (not perfectly the same) but close. You can get a feel for what prospects are higher ranked....and they also only list the top 10. If you go through all teams, (which nobody has done and disagreed) you will find most teams have an international player higher ranked than the Red Sox.I looked at Fantrax (again not the best ) which lists the top 400 prospects in baseball. Jimenez is ranked 168 (and is so good they didn't protect him). The next ranked prospect is Bleis (262). So if Jimenez is picked in the rule 5 (if there is one) our top international prospect would be #262 in the game?? I believe again, given the money we are spending (it's agreed we are spending all that we can), the Red Sox should be expected to do better than the #262 prospect in the game. I realize that we had 2 seasons of penalties. That ended 5 seasons ago (counting this seasons signings). No they haven't played yet, but we weren't in on the top 20 depending on what list you look at this year either. And we have only the top 262 prospect out of our international signings?? Again, I'm not trying to look at the red sox solely. I'm judging them based on the results of all other MLB teams. Hopefully Bleis and some of the other players change this opinion and results (they aren't my rankings..they are others). But again, it's why I argue something needs to change OR this year needs to show better results; because other teams are passing us up on the international front for one reason or another. Anyways, I don't want to steal space. I appreciate the discussion and hope I'm wrong. This is simply why I feel something changed over the past 4-5 years. (that's outside the penalty years). But we aren't spitting out the Espinosa/Devers/Xander/Margot level we once were.
|
|
|
Post by greatscottcooper on Jan 26, 2022 7:58:08 GMT -5
Hi Prospectlove, in the spirit of not quoting long paragraphs and keeping things short and easy to read I'll just respond directly to your point. In regards to listing the prospects ranked by other teams, you're taking a snapshot during ONE year. You can't judge the Sox ability and track record of turning out international talent based on such a small period of time, especially when that period of time is specifically several years AFTER they effectively lost 2 years of ability to sign players.
You don't have to sign a Rafael Devers every single year, and when you don't that doesn't mean your system has failed. Look at what they've done historically, look at the players on this current team that came to the international route, and look at the pipeline that Chris laid out that is coming up behind them. Just because some of those guys aren't top 100 prospects now, doesn't mean they might not be one day, and could even end up being everyday staples on this team down the road.
The kids are alright, enjoy the show.
|
|
|
Post by greatscottcooper on Jan 26, 2022 8:00:56 GMT -5
Let me reiterate my point. Yes, the Sox don't have a top 100 highly regarded prospect RIGHT NOW when other teams do. Other teams also don't have Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers in their lineup. That situation could flip flop 2 years from now, many of those teams might not have any and the Sox could have 2-3.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 26, 2022 11:32:32 GMT -5
Using Fangraphs' midyear update, IFA prospects with FV 55 or higher, by signing org (it's old, but as a snapshot in time, it's just as useful I think):
ATL: 1 (Pache, 2015) CIN: 1 (Barrero, 2016) LAD: 1 (Ruiz, 2014) NYM: 2 (Alvarez, 2018; Mauricio, 2017) SEA: 2 (Rodriguez, 2017; Marte, 2018) SF: 1 (Luciano, 2018) TB: 1 (Brujan, 2014)
And here's the 50s with just years: ARI: 4 ('14, '15, '17, '17) BOS: 1 (Gregory Santos, 2015) CIN: 1 ('18) CLE: 3 ('16, '17, '17) LAD: 3 ('15, '17, '18) MIA: 1 ('15) NYY: 9 ('14, '15, '15, '16, '16, '16, '18, '18, '19) PHI: 1 ('14) SD: 2 ('16, '19) SF: 1 ('18) STL: 1 ('16) TEX: 1 ('17) TOR: 2 ('16, '18)
So, some conclusions: - If there are roughly 9 elite IFA prospects in the game, there's a 31% chance that the Red Sox should have signed one of them (I'm using 29 as the denominator because the Orioles used to sit out the IFA market). - If there are roughly 30 50-grade IFA prospects in the game, the Red Sox on average should have signed one. And they did - they just happened to trade him for Eduardo Nunez before we knew much about him.
The 39 IFAs broken down by signing year: 2014: 5 2015: 7 (Red Sox limited to $300,000 bonuses after balling out for Moncada the prior year - very worth it, and still get Santos) 2016: 8 (Red Sox banned from signing IFAs) -------- 2017: 8 2018: 9 2019: 2
More conclusions: - In a universe of 39 guys spread over 6 signing periods, the Red Sox were limited or banned in the periods from which ~38% of them came. - It's a shade disappointing that they haven't gotten any in the most recent three classes, but there's only like a 66% chance (again, 29 teams) that they would have even one of them (if my math is right?), and the fact they had a $3.1M bonus guy who died certainly hurts there, big time.
In other words, based on the numbers, I think you can certainly say it's a shade disappointing the last 50FV (as currently ranked) they signed as an IFA was from 2015, but based on the numbers, that's within the realm of expectations considering the limitations in '15 and '16, and even would've been without those limitations.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 26, 2022 11:37:33 GMT -5
And for what it's worth, IFAs in teams' top 10s is a poor way of looking at it, as that doesn't account for how good the players are except for within their farm systems. You need to look at grades across the game. Being a top 10 prospect for the White Sox is very different than being a top 10 prospect for the Rays.
|
|
|
Post by GyIantosca on Jan 26, 2022 11:53:59 GMT -5
For me, I believe the Sox do a good job graduating there prospects. 2018 team was very impressive. I take more stock in that. Some teams have a ton of high grade prospects but for all the minor league accolades, they get no major league production.
|
|
|
Post by prospectlove on Jan 26, 2022 14:21:16 GMT -5
Using Fangraphs' midyear update, IFA prospects with FV 55 or higher, by signing org (it's old, but as a snapshot in time, it's just as useful I think): ATL: 1 (Pache, 2015) CIN: 1 (Barrero, 2016) LAD: 1 (Ruiz, 2014) NYM: 2 (Alvarez, 2018; Mauricio, 2017) SEA: 2 (Rodriguez, 2017; Marte, 2018) SF: 1 (Luciano, 2018) TB: 1 (Brujan, 2014) And here's the 50s with just years: ARI: 4 ('14, '15, '17, '17) BOS: 1 (Gregory Santos, 2015) CIN: 1 ('18) CLE: 3 ('16, '17, '17) LAD: 3 ('15, '17, '18) MIA: 1 ('15) NYY: 9 ('14, '15, '15, '16, '16, '16, '18, '18, '19) PHI: 1 ('14) SD: 2 ('16, '19) SF: 1 ('18) STL: 1 ('16) TEX: 1 ('17) TOR: 2 ('16, '18) So, some conclusions: - If there are roughly 9 elite IFA prospects in the game, there's a 31% chance that the Red Sox should have signed one of them (I'm using 29 as the denominator because the Orioles used to sit out the IFA market). - If there are roughly 30 50-grade IFA prospects in the game, the Red Sox on average should have signed one. And they did - they just happened to trade him for Eduardo Nunez before we knew much about him. The 39 IFAs broken down by signing year: 2014: 5 2015: 7 (Red Sox limited to $300,000 bonuses after balling out for Moncada the prior year - very worth it, and still get Santos) 2016: 8 (Red Sox banned from signing IFAs) -------- 2017: 8 2018: 9 2019: 2 More conclusions: - In a universe of 39 guys spread over 6 signing periods, the Red Sox were limited or banned in the periods from which ~38% of them came. - It's a shade disappointing that they haven't gotten any in the most recent three classes, but there's only like a 66% chance (again, 29 teams) that they would have even one of them (if my math is right?), and the fact they had a $3.1M bonus guy who died certainly hurts there, big time. In other words, based on the numbers, I think you can certainly say it's a shade disappointing the last 50FV (as currently ranked) they signed as an IFA was from 2015, but based on the numbers, that's within the realm of expectations considering the limitations in '15 and '16, and even would've been without those limitations. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Thank you for your research. I neither want to take up space to list some of thoughts I have or be boring in thoughts (or upset people in thoughts). So what I'm trying to say was kinda proven in your research. I'm saying Since the accident year it seems our scouting or signing or something has went down. You have our last 50 prospect as signed during 2015. I respect we were under penalties, but I'm concerned SOMETHING changed after the accident year and it has been having a profound impact on our system. So the years since both the banning and passing of our top prospect signed have not been producing the same type of prospects we were before it. Furthermore I openly express that last years signing and this years signing is yet to be determined because they haven't played stateside and usually fangraphs 50 grade prospects are ones who have played stateside. Thank you again for your research on this. Let's hope I'm completely off base in my concern.
|
|
|
Post by vmoss on Jan 26, 2022 21:10:11 GMT -5
Who are nyy 9 50 prospects? How many do they currently still have and how highly are they ranked?
Thanks.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 26, 2022 21:50:52 GMT -5
Who are nyy 9 50 prospects? How many do they currently still have and how highly are they ranked? Thanks. They've traded like 5 of them. You can look on Fangraphs' "The Board" and sort it by signing team to see.
|
|
|