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Chaim Bloom and the Red Sox Rebuild
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Post by manfred on Feb 28, 2021 10:37:50 GMT -5
I honestly don’t even remember. I think I made the minor point that Richards has a long injury history and is a risk at $10 million relative to a guy like Happ at $8.5. That I followed with the what I thought was equally uncontroversial... if it works, Bloom done good, but if it doesn’t Bloom done very dumb. Lastly, we have different definitions of competitive. I said thr Sox will win 86, and they will not make the playoffs. Not competitive. (You keep saying, well, an 86 win team could be a 91 win team... if I thought they could win 91, I’d take 91. I think they *can* win 86. That is my ceiling.) So basically you're saying that you expect them to max out your ceiling projection? I mean, I have them around .500 but acknowledge there is so much volatility and risk in the kind of team Bloom put together that this team could win 90 as easily as they could lose 90. I believe this team's ceiling is higher than 86 wins but their floor is lower than 76 wins if things go south. I think the one thing that I'm seeing that points the arrow in the right direction is that if the starting pitchers like Eovaldi or Richards break down, the second half brings viable help from the farm in Houck, Mata, and Seabold, not to mention Sale. That's so much better options than they've had recently. I'd like to see them win 90 in 2021 but winning 90 plus for a sustained period of time, say 2023-2032 is a helluva lot more important than this individual season. I guess I think when someone asks for a number, I don’t say x +/-5. Why don’t we all just say somewhere between 78-93 and be one happy family?
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Post by Jimmy on Feb 28, 2021 10:59:54 GMT -5
On the Richards vs Happ issue:
I agree Richards is more risky than Happ this year, especially factoring in price. However, I think the team option combined with a higher ceiling if healthy makes it a risk worth taking. Especially if you think this is a bridge year or whatever you want to call it - he either bounces back for half a season and has additional trade value due to the option - or we keep him and he adds value in 2022.
If we were all in I think I’d prefer Happ, but I like the added long term value from Richards here.
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Post by sibbysisti on Feb 28, 2021 11:01:05 GMT -5
I really don't understand this lengthy dialogue on the health of Richards. In the first place the Red Sox, no doubt, did due diligence in assessing his physical status before committing $10m (8.5 +1.5 bo). And it did not break the bank as the team still has $5+m available before reaching the luxury tax threshold. Secondly, it's not like he is the final cog in assembling a potential WS favorite roster. If he does well and the team doesn't, he can be moved at the TDL and recoup a prospect. It's a waste of time when discussing Bloom building a system.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 28, 2021 11:12:22 GMT -5
So basically you're saying that you expect them to max out your ceiling projection? I mean, I have them around .500 but acknowledge there is so much volatility and risk in the kind of team Bloom put together that this team could win 90 as easily as they could lose 90. I believe this team's ceiling is higher than 86 wins but their floor is lower than 76 wins if things go south. I think the one thing that I'm seeing that points the arrow in the right direction is that if the starting pitchers like Eovaldi or Richards break down, the second half brings viable help from the farm in Houck, Mata, and Seabold, not to mention Sale. That's so much better options than they've had recently. I'd like to see them win 90 in 2021 but winning 90 plus for a sustained period of time, say 2023-2032 is a helluva lot more important than this individual season. I guess I think when someone asks for a number, I don’t say x +/-5. Why don’t we all just say somewhere between 78-93 and be one happy family? Well, it's that you predicted 86 wins. I think most people interpret a prediction as an estimate of the most likely outcome, not the best possible outcome. If you think the team is most likely to win 86 games, that's hard to square with a desire to tank. If you think 86 wins is the best possible outcome then it makes a little more sense. (Though it raises the question of why you are not using 'prediction' according to its normal english definition.)
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Post by manfred on Feb 28, 2021 11:23:25 GMT -5
I guess I think when someone asks for a number, I don’t say x +/-5. Why don’t we all just say somewhere between 78-93 and be one happy family? Well, it's that you predicted 86 wins. I think most people interpret a prediction as an estimate of the most likely outcome, not the best possible outcome. If you think the team is most likely to win 86 games, that's hard to square with a desire to tank. If you think 86 wins is the best possible outcome then it makes a little more sense. (Though it raises the question of why you are not using 'prediction' according to its normal english definition.) They will win 86. Not 85, not 87. They will not make the playoffs. They will not dump guys at the deadline (not being totally out), thus not get younger. They will get a mid-first-round pick. At the end of the season, Chris Sale will be 32, Eovaldi 31, Richards 33, and ERod a contract question... all one year closer to problems with nothing to show for it. JD Martinez will be 34. Christian Vasquez will be 31. But none of those guys will get traded, and we will go towards 2022 with a core that is... one year older. Is that terrible? Naw. There are still the likes of Devers, X, Verdugo... maaayyybbee Dalbec. Of course Devers and X will be one more wasted year closer to contract issues, too. But I don’t think there is any real *upside* to being mediocre.
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Post by Jimmy on Feb 28, 2021 11:28:37 GMT -5
Well, it's that you predicted 86 wins. I think most people interpret a prediction as an estimate of the most likely outcome, not the best possible outcome. If you think the team is most likely to win 86 games, that's hard to square with a desire to tank. If you think 86 wins is the best possible outcome then it makes a little more sense. (Though it raises the question of why you are not using 'prediction' according to its normal english definition.) They will win 86. Not 85, not 87. They will not make the playoffs. They will not dump guys at the deadline (not being totally out), thus not get younger. They will get a mid-first-round pick. At the end of the season, Chris Sale will be 32, Eovaldi 31, Richards 33, and ERod a contract question... all one year closer to problems with nothing to show for it. JD Martinez will be 34. Christian Vasquez will be 31. But none of those guys will get traded, and we will go towards 2022 with a core that is... one year older. Is that terrible? Naw. There are still the likes of Devers, X, Verdugo... maaayyybbee Dalbec. Of course Devers and X will be one more wasted year closer to contract issues, too. But I don’t think there is any real *upside* to being mediocre. I wonder if Chaim has the balls to sell off a mediocre team at the deadline. Say Sox are 2-5 games out of a playoff spot at the deadline. Honestly I think he might.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 28, 2021 11:28:56 GMT -5
Well, it's that you predicted 86 wins. I think most people interpret a prediction as an estimate of the most likely outcome, not the best possible outcome. If you think the team is most likely to win 86 games, that's hard to square with a desire to tank. If you think 86 wins is the best possible outcome then it makes a little more sense. (Though it raises the question of why you are not using 'prediction' according to its normal english definition.) They will win 86. Not 85, not 87. They will not make the playoffs. They will not dump guys at the deadline (not being totally out), thus not get younger. They will get a mid-first-round pick. At the end of the season, Chris Sale will be 32, Eovaldi 31, Richards 33, and ERod a contract question... all one year closer to problems with nothing to show for it. JD Martinez will be 34. Christian Vasquez will be 31. But none of those guys will get traded, and we will go towards 2022 with a core that is... one year older. Is that terrible? Naw. There are still the likes of Devers, X, Verdugo... maaayyybbee Dalbec. Of course Devers and X will be one more wasted year closer to contract issues, too. But I don’t think there is any real *upside* to being mediocre. Well that squares the circle! Your prediction is also your best possible outcome because you have absolute certainty that they are an 86-win team, not any better or any worse. I'll just say again that I think that degree of certainty is unwarranted. But to avoid going around in circles I'll leave it at that.
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,966
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Post by jimoh on Feb 28, 2021 11:51:04 GMT -5
Well, it's that you predicted 86 wins. I think most people interpret a prediction as an estimate of the most likely outcome, not the best possible outcome. If you think the team is most likely to win 86 games, that's hard to square with a desire to tank. If you think 86 wins is the best possible outcome then it makes a little more sense. (Though it raises the question of why you are not using 'prediction' according to its normal english definition.) They will win 86. Not 85, not 87. They will not make the playoffs. They will not dump guys at the deadline (not being totally out), thus not get younger. They will get a mid-first-round pick. At the end of the season, Chris Sale will be 32, Eovaldi 31, Richards 33, and ERod a contract question... all one year closer to problems with nothing to show for it. JD Martinez will be 34. Christian Vasquez will be 31. But none of those guys will get traded, and we will go towards 2022 with a core that is... one year older. Is that terrible? Naw. There are still the likes of Devers, X, Verdugo... maaayyybbee Dalbec. Of course Devers and X will be one more wasted year closer to contract issues, too. But I don’t think there is any real *upside* to being mediocre. You could really save a lot of time by just saying "I chose to look at this in a more pessimistic way." You could probably set it up so that whoever anyone posts about anything, you just just automatically respond "I chose to look at this in a more pessimistic way." There are so many interesting things going on, such a complex set of unpredictable factors, so many players with high ceilings and low floors, so many trades and signings and pickups and interviews and even video of people throwing and hitting, and this site could be filled with people talking about that. Instead, half the posts on every topic are just you saying, again and again and again ad nauseam, "I chose to look at this in a more pessimistic way."
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 28, 2021 11:52:17 GMT -5
If you wanted Happ I'd say you take him over Perez. Yet he's going into his age 38 season also.
Bloom is saying Richards reminds him of Kevin Brown.
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Post by manfred on Feb 28, 2021 12:15:40 GMT -5
They will win 86. Not 85, not 87. They will not make the playoffs. They will not dump guys at the deadline (not being totally out), thus not get younger. They will get a mid-first-round pick. At the end of the season, Chris Sale will be 32, Eovaldi 31, Richards 33, and ERod a contract question... all one year closer to problems with nothing to show for it. JD Martinez will be 34. Christian Vasquez will be 31. But none of those guys will get traded, and we will go towards 2022 with a core that is... one year older. Is that terrible? Naw. There are still the likes of Devers, X, Verdugo... maaayyybbee Dalbec. Of course Devers and X will be one more wasted year closer to contract issues, too. But I don’t think there is any real *upside* to being mediocre. You could really save a lot of time by just saying "I chose to look at this in a more pessimistic way." You could probably set it up so that whoever anyone posts about anything, you just just automatically respond "I chose to look at this in a more pessimistic way." There are so many interesting things going on, such a complex set of unpredictable factors, so many players with high ceilings and low floors, so many trades and signings and pickups and interviews and even video of people throwing and hitting, and this site could be filled with people talking about that. Instead, half the posts on every topic are just you saying, again and again and again ad nauseam, "I chose to look at this in a more pessimistic way." I honestly don’t know what you want. I say 86 wins, and I get attacked for not saying that could mean 91. So I say, naw, hard 86 or else it is not really a prediction at all, and I get attacked for being certain. I mean, the original question was how many games do you think they’ll win. It was a party game, and the rules kinda imply a single number. I picked one... then I get bashed for not having it be +/-5. You want to know my honest position? The cosmos is a wild place. Relativity. Spooky Action at a Distance. Cats in boxes. The Sox could win between 60 and 120 games. No, between 0 and 162 — though I must qualify even that because there could be a 1-game playoff, (163!) or cancellations. Any concrete pick between 75-95 is a blind guess and the exercise, if it goes beyond just fun, is stupid. Look back at predictions for Chris Sale the month before TJ... it was going to be a big bounce back season! Things can go very right until they go wrong. But you know what else? The cosmos also curves towards heat death. Bodies ineluctably decay. etc etc. Injury, decline, failure are absolute givens... not just chance. So when *pressed* — “pick an exact number” — “will this guy turn a corner?” I tend to take the safer option in a vacuum. You may not believe in entropy, but it believes in you.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,966
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Post by jimoh on Feb 28, 2021 13:29:51 GMT -5
You could really save a lot of time by just saying "I chose to look at this in a more pessimistic way." You could probably set it up so that whoever anyone posts about anything, you just just automatically respond "I chose to look at this in a more pessimistic way." There are so many interesting things going on, such a complex set of unpredictable factors, so many players with high ceilings and low floors, so many trades and signings and pickups and interviews and even video of people throwing and hitting, and this site could be filled with people talking about that. Instead, half the posts on every topic are just you saying, again and again and again ad nauseam, "I chose to look at this in a more pessimistic way." I honestly don’t know what you want. [..] Really? You don't think I'm asking you to post a little less incessantly, a little less repetitively, a little less predictably? You don't get that?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 28, 2021 22:51:56 GMT -5
I used to have a cockatoo which was very cool. Some of the things he learned to say were quite interesting. Unfortunately he said the same things over and over and over and over again.
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Post by manfred on Mar 1, 2021 10:26:35 GMT -5
Point taken gents. In the future, I will make my point and ignore “what-abouts” follow ups.
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Post by stevedillard on Mar 1, 2021 16:40:00 GMT -5
Excited about the 2024 infield of 1B Devers 2b Yorke, SS Mayer and 3b Bogaerts?
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Mar 1, 2021 17:44:06 GMT -5
On the Richards vs Happ issue: I agree Richards is more risky than Happ this year, especially factoring in price. However, I think the team option combined with a higher ceiling if healthy makes it a risk worth taking. Especially if you think this is a bridge year or whatever you want to call it - he either bounces back for half a season and has additional trade value due to the option - or we keep him and he adds value in 2022. If we were all in I think I’d prefer Happ, but I like the added long term value from Richards here. Agree, there are way too many factors estimate the number of wins a team will get before the season. The biggest factor is injuries! I would agree with somewhere between 78-93 wins. Does that makes the playoffs? The RS probably do not make the playoffs, but they definitely have a better idea of who plays where going into 2022, and that is what I am excited to see....
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Mar 1, 2021 18:00:00 GMT -5
They will win 86. Not 85, not 87. They will not make the playoffs. They will not dump guys at the deadline (not being totally out), thus not get younger. They will get a mid-first-round pick. At the end of the season, Chris Sale will be 32, Eovaldi 31, Richards 33, and ERod a contract question... all one year closer to problems with nothing to show for it. JD Martinez will be 34. Christian Vasquez will be 31. But none of those guys will get traded, and we will go towards 2022 with a core that is... one year older. Is that terrible? Naw. There are still the likes of Devers, X, Verdugo... maaayyybbee Dalbec. Of course Devers and X will be one more wasted year closer to contract issues, too. But I don’t think there is any real *upside* to being mediocre. I wonder if Chaim has the balls to sell off a mediocre team at the deadline. Say Sox are 2-5 games out of a playoff spot at the deadline. Honestly I think he might. Yes, Bloom will sell off pieces at the trading deadline if the RS around .500, because TB, NYY, and Tor will all be slightly ahead of the RS. If Bloom can add valuable pieces he will...
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nomar
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Posts: 10,787
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Post by nomar on Mar 1, 2021 20:06:26 GMT -5
Can we put a spoiler tag on this thread? I didn’t realize I was going to find out how many games we’d win this year.
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Post by dirtdog on Mar 1, 2021 21:29:12 GMT -5
Excited about the 2024 infield of 1B Devers 2b Yorke, SS Mayer and 3b Bogaerts? Jet Downs? Cassas?
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Mar 1, 2021 21:36:21 GMT -5
They will win 86. Not 85, not 87. They will not make the playoffs. They will not dump guys at the deadline (not being totally out), thus not get younger. They will get a mid-first-round pick. At the end of the season, Chris Sale will be 32, Eovaldi 31, Richards 33, and ERod a contract question... all one year closer to problems with nothing to show for it. JD Martinez will be 34. Christian Vasquez will be 31. But none of those guys will get traded, and we will go towards 2022 with a core that is... one year older. Is that terrible? Naw. There are still the likes of Devers, X, Verdugo... maaayyybbee Dalbec. Of course Devers and X will be one more wasted year closer to contract issues, too. But I don’t think there is any real *upside* to being mediocre. You could really save a lot of time by just saying "I chose to look at this in a more pessimistic way." You could probably set it up so that whoever anyone posts about anything, you just just automatically respond "I chose to look at this in a more pessimistic way." There are so many interesting things going on, such a complex set of unpredictable factors, so many players with high ceilings and low floors, so many trades and signings and pickups and interviews and even video of people throwing and hitting, and this site could be filled with people talking about that. Instead, half the posts on every topic are just you saying, again and again and again ad nauseam, "I chose to look at this in a more pessimistic way." It is usually Manfred and a small handful of Red Sox “fans” that can not get over Mookie being traded that are pessimistic. Bloom and Co. will assess what they have this year and spend big money on the glaring weaknesses when it is right player and the right fit. IMO the RS in 2022 will be competitive. Last year people forget that the Red Sox won 8 of their last 13 and were playing much better at the end of the season once they were able to filter through who was good and who was not. If the season had gone the full 162 IMO the RS would have ended up at .500, at least. The Godley, Kickham, Springs, Hall, Hart,... had already been replaced by Houck, Pivetta, and Eovaldi (after his IL stint) as well as more productive guys in the bullpen. Between DD trading way a ton of players and the lost international draft class of the 2016-2017 offseason. Bloom has had to overcome what Cherington and DD did not. Bloom has restocked amazingly quick and some of the benefits will start to arrive. If someone choose to be negative that is their choice, and my response is to skip reading there opinions as I simply do not agree with their pessimistic views.
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ianrs
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Post by ianrs on Mar 2, 2021 4:48:50 GMT -5
Excited about the 2024 infield of 1B Devers 2b Yorke, SS Mayer and 3b Bogaerts? Add DH Blaze Jordan and you have yourself a hell of an offense. But also Casas at 1st
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Mar 2, 2021 6:48:01 GMT -5
Excited about the 2024 infield of 1B Devers 2b Yorke, SS Mayer and 3b Bogaerts? Add DH Blaze Jordan and you have yourself a hell of an offense. But also Casas at 1st Is our Left Fielder of the future currently playing infield?
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Post by incandenza on Mar 2, 2021 19:27:45 GMT -5
The return for Springs and Mazza, and even the return for Osich, does make me wonder if we might be pleasantly surprised by the KC putbanills in this trade.
By the way, I must say I am a big fan of how Bloom has traded away relievers who promptly belly-flopped* for an increasingly impressive pile of talent (Pivetta, Seabold, Hernandez, Bryant) rather than that thing the Red Sox used to do of trading a pile of talent for relievers who promptly belly-flopped.
*TBD on Springs and Mazza's belly-flopping potential, obviously
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Post by manfred on Mar 2, 2021 20:11:23 GMT -5
The return for Springs and Mazza, and even the return for Osich, does make me wonder if we might be pleasantly surprised by the KC putbanills in this trade. By the way, I must say I am a big fan of how Bloom has traded away relievers who promptly belly-flopped* for an increasingly impressive pile of talent (Pivetta, Seabold, Hernandez, Bryant) rather than that thing the Red Sox used to do of trading a pile of talent for relievers who promptly belly-flopped. *TBD on Springs and Mazza's belly-flopping potential, obviously As painful as the Anderson-Bagwell trade was, it is a model that doesn’t seem to age. Near the deadline, even mediocre arms suddenly seem to be made of gold. I still understand being on the Anderson (or Hembree/Workman) side... you never want to be just short... but it is certainly awesome to be on the Bagwell (Seabold/Pivetta?) side.
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Post by ramireja on Mar 4, 2021 12:28:26 GMT -5
I moved the PTBNL speculation to the Benintendi thread and created a new thread for the analysis of Red Sox reliever trades.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 5, 2021 9:48:07 GMT -5
I hadn't seen a thread for Chaim Bloom, but wanted to discuss the job he is doing so far.
Personally speaking, I think he's doing a very good job despite the fact that since he has taken over the team finished in last and this year's team is already living up the expectations of being mediocre.
1. He was given a zero depth and one of the worst farm systems in baseball. 2. He was told he had to trade Mookie Betts and all indications were he wasn't allowed to spend when he first got here. 3. The Mookie Betts trade I feel like was a win for what he was forced to do. I love Verdugo, Downs is a good prospect, and getting half of Price's contract off the books was a win (more so now that he's a reliever). 4. Nick Yorke was thought to be a reach in the draft, but so far in extremely limited samples have seen that he has been impressive (I believe going 7/10 last year at the alternate site?) 5. I like the Andrew Benintendi trade. (2/13 .368 OPS and now looks to be hurt) 6. Like his Rule 5 pickups for Jonathan Araúz and now Garrett Whitlock. 7. Loved the Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree for Nick Pivetta and Connor Seabold trade. 8. Hirokazu Sawamura seems like a good pickup from Japan. 9. No "buy-low" free agents have seemed to work out thus far, but I do like the idea of buying into guys like Richards and Renfroe as potential assets to flip on a rebuilding team.
I don't think winning is this team's first priority. It's rebuilding and it's doing so with guys who underperformed (Benintendi), bad contracts (JD Martinez, Chris Sale), and no real farm system.
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