cdj
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Post by cdj on Apr 23, 2023 23:36:43 GMT -5
just keep steadily rounding into form, today was a step in a positive direction
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on May 31, 2023 17:14:35 GMT -5
Bello's last 4 starts. Days Rest xWOBA Str% BB% Pitc/BF 5 .284 .670 .043 4.3 6 .394 .626 .200 4.3 5 .290 .684 .000 3.6 6 .380 .629 .100 4.9 Gee, anyone see a pattern?
(Yes, those are his only 2 starts on 6 days rest.)
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Post by grandsalami on Jun 23, 2023 21:58:44 GMT -5
Bello has confirmed he is now throwing a cutter
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,097
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Post by cdj on Jun 23, 2023 23:01:59 GMT -5
he’s like The Predator, constantly adapting
Kid has a high aptitude for pitching. Great feel
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Post by taiwansox on Jun 23, 2023 23:23:20 GMT -5
he’s like The Predator, constantly adapting Kid has a high aptitude for pitching. Great feel Winter with Pedro in the DR was clutch
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Post by sam01 on Jun 24, 2023 7:52:46 GMT -5
He's probably been working on it since spring or even the off-season, probably felt most comfortable throwing it now since he mentioned his slider has been off lately. Not a overnight thing.
Still, I think one of the biggest moves this off-season with hopefully signing Yamamoto, is trying to extend Bello for as much as they can. He's going to be the face of the pitching staff soon. Actually, he probably already is.
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bigmarty58
Rookie
2011 Pancreatic Cancer Survivor - One of the lucky ones
Posts: 162
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Post by bigmarty58 on Jun 24, 2023 8:46:56 GMT -5
Looks like BB is getting some good nutritional help, his body looks larger and more mature than when he came up last year. The kid continues to impress with electric stuff. There was only one Pedro but Bello is showing similar physical and mental toughness, he is nasty.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 2, 2023 4:51:01 GMT -5
So, how good has Bello been?
I had an argument in the Yanknees series thread about Bello pitching on 6 days rest, and it was objected to. But if you toss out those games as non-predictive rather than including them, you get massively better projections. This crazy notion that players should be regarded as human beings rather than random number generators has served me well -- its success was probably 80% of why John Henry hired me personally. So .... xWOBA, with games with 6 days rest in the right column, starting with his first good outing on May 10.
.284 .394 .290 .380 .273 .237 .308 .249 .184
He was 37% "worse" his first two times on 6 days rest and cut that to 26% in his third try at it. Could this make any more sense?
If you include the three outlier outings, he's still damn impressive. He has a .287 / .251 (xwOBA / wOBA) which ranks him 15th and 9th respectively out of 124 pitchers who faced 150+ hitters from May 8 on (going back two days from his start to get guys in the same rotation cycle). That's an ace.
Admit it ... even if you're dubious about tossing out the three outliers, you want to know what happens if you do, right?
It's .253 / .237, in 153 PA.
How good is that?
In that time frame, he's only tied for 2nd in wOBA, with Blake Snell, behind only ... oops, Michael Wacha.
The .253 leads MLB in xwOBA. The runner up, Max Scherzer, at .267.
The gap between the two is as large as that between Scherzer and #11 (Eury Perez).
No, he's not going to be another Pedro. No one ever will be. But right now, he looks like a perennial CY contender.
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Post by wOBA Fett on Jul 3, 2023 19:09:40 GMT -5
Pay this man his money.
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Post by Jimmy on Jul 3, 2023 19:24:45 GMT -5
I don’t even know where to start. 10/$130M? Feels low but 5 years of team control left…
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Jul 3, 2023 20:03:34 GMT -5
Paxton won the AL pitcher of the Month for June and deserved it. It would not be hard at all to make a case for Bello being runner up for that honor. He has arrived !
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Post by wOBA Fett on Jul 3, 2023 20:13:24 GMT -5
I don’t even know where to start. 10/$130M? Feels low but 5 years of team control left… 8-90 probably gets it done
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Post by redsoxfansince94 on Jul 4, 2023 6:43:22 GMT -5
Give me an 8-10 year deal at 12-17M AAV and this fan would be ecstatic.
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Post by wOBA Fett on Jul 4, 2023 11:42:27 GMT -5
Give me an 8-10 year deal at 12-17M AAV and this fan would be ecstatic. 8 yrs should be plenty. Bello is already 24 and you sell him on collecting $100M guaranteed and hitting the market at his age 32 season. For context, Pedro came to Boston when he was 26 and left when he was 32.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 13, 2023 19:10:55 GMT -5
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Post by blizzards39 on Jul 13, 2023 23:36:22 GMT -5
A Bello extension is a must. Hope for ace, but as long as he’s a top 3 it’s still a great play. Buy 2 years. That still gives him one chance at future payday and Sox 7 years control
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 15, 2023 6:18:43 GMT -5
So, who was leading MLB in bWAR / IP, minimum 10 GS, at the All-Star break?
And Paxton was 3rd.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 17, 2023 8:51:06 GMT -5
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 19, 2023 18:14:53 GMT -5
Bello working on another pitch apparently
Brayan Bello said he's developing a new pitch to help him fare better against lefties.
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Post by orion09 on Jul 20, 2023 1:49:35 GMT -5
A cutter maybe? I’d still like to see him throw the curveball he was working on towards the end of last year, he only threw two of them but they were beautiful. He’s already got the fastball and changeup… the tripartite mantle of Pedro Martinez is his to take
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 21, 2023 16:47:58 GMT -5
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jul 22, 2023 14:36:42 GMT -5
Paxton won the AL pitcher of the Month for June and deserved it. It would not be hard at all to make a case for Bello being runner up for that honor. He has arrived ! It's extremely rare for pitcher to succeed so quicky. I know people hate the cherry picking game but if it's someones first start of the season and they were delayed starting the season for any reason or a player goes on the DL list the next start after a bad one, there SHOULD be some exceptions. Bello for the most part has pitched like an All Star from his last x amount of starts last seasonto now and it's close to his first full calender year. I'm not comparing him to anyone else but very few pitchers with instant success come to mind, after all Ted Williams said not to jusge a pitcher until he's thrown 500 IP, back in the day that was about 2 full seasons and that part still rings true even if the innings may not. Doc Gooden and Fernanda Valenzuela are some of the only pitchers I can think off having so much success so soon.
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Post by huskies15 on Aug 7, 2023 10:45:55 GMT -5
We need a good bounce back outing from Bello today. His expected stats the last few outings are not as great as they had been in May and June. His baseball savant page also paints a picture of a league average starter (still a developmental win if that's the case) rather than a front-end starter albeit with some high-end comparables for his pitch mix (ex: Luis Castillo is similar).
Getting a few more swings and misses the rest of the season would be an encouraging sign!
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zoot
Rookie
Posts: 50
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Post by zoot on Aug 8, 2023 9:34:06 GMT -5
He didn't seem to have the swing-and-misses going last night, 2 SO's on 99 pitches. Lots of ground balls, IIRC, might reflect a deliberate choice of secondary pitches if his FB wasn't working.
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Post by seamus on Aug 8, 2023 13:31:23 GMT -5
The lack of strikeouts given how nasty his changeup is seems strange to me, but it really does seem like he's deliberately pitching for groundballs and double plays. Looking forward to our first Story-to-Urias-to-Casas GIDP from a Bello sinker.
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