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6/8-6/10 Red Sox vs. Astros Series Thread
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jun 9, 2021 21:26:58 GMT -5
Home sweet home. this is why you shouldn't get carried away with a couple of sweeps because the next one could be right at your doorstep. Dusty Baker is very good manager. Houston has our number so far. Sox are a streaky team so far - stretches of wins and stretches of losses (thankfully those are shorter so far).
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jun 9, 2021 21:47:14 GMT -5
Welp, I think I've seen enough of Danny Santana. Santana is even worse than Franchy.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jun 9, 2021 22:06:55 GMT -5
Just heard a stat - Sox are worst in baseball at swinging at balls out of the zone - 35% - also last at walks....so a very undisciplined team at the plate so far.
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Post by congusgambler33 on Jun 9, 2021 22:25:18 GMT -5
Just heard a stat - Sox are worst in baseball at swinging at balls out of the zone - 35% - also last at walks....so a very undisciplined team at the plate so far. That should be the hitting coach job to keep them in the zone. Lunging at sliders away and trying to hit fastballs shoulder high and way inside. it doesn't hurt to draw a walk. I am turning a little bit sour on Hyers.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 9, 2021 23:15:05 GMT -5
Just heard a stat - Sox are worst in baseball at swinging at balls out of the zone - 35% - also last at walks....so a very undisciplined team at the plate so far. That should be the hitting coach job to keep them in the zone. Lunging at sliders away and trying to hit fastballs shoulder high and way inside. it doesn't hurt to draw a walk. I am turning a little bit sour on Hyers. It's one of those things that if you acquire players who have a long history of undisciplined hacking and they go out there and hack away at bad pitches, that's more on the GM than the hitting coach. It's crazy. You look at the records and you'd think the Astros would have a better record than the Red Sox. Their pythag record is better and I suspect shortly they will overtake Oakland and have a better record than the Sox, too, and it wouldn't shock me to see Houston have a better record than Tampa Bay, too. We talk about how strong the #2 - #5 spots are for the Red Sox, but seriously the Astros have seven spots in the lineup that are very above average. Their catching and CF is below average, but if Castro gets healthy that could fix some of their catching issues. The bottom line is that their offense takes their walks and doesn't strike out much and their offense is flat out better than the Sox. And their pitching is better, too. Like the Sox are missing Sale, so too is Houston with Verlander, but when Odorizzi is your worst starter, that's a pretty good staff. Between Valdez, Garcia, Javier, McCullers, and Greinke, that's one helluva staff. They have a solid closer in Pressley. Their middle relief is so-so, but all in all I'd say they have better pitching. The Sox are a very good team but they're no match for Houston and it plays out when the two teams face each other. The Sox would be very fortunate not to get swept and frankly it wouldn't surprise me at all if they do get swept at Fenway. I don't know if Houston is still cheating, but if so, they haven't been caught this year yet, but I think they're the class of the league. I think the White Sox should be, but LaRussa will mess them up and the injury to Luis Robert hurts them as well, but they're on the way up if LaRussa doesn't get in the way. I shouldn't dismiss Tampa and we'll get a better look at them, but I think of them as the classic overachiever and without the talent Houston has. In the playoffs anything can happen, but at this point I think the Astros look like the strongest team.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 9, 2021 23:51:46 GMT -5
Home sweet home. this is why you shouldn't get carried away with a couple of sweeps because the next one could be right at your doorstep. Dusty Baker is very good manager. Houston has our number so far. Sox are a streaky team so far - stretches of wins and stretches of losses (thankfully those are shorter so far). They're streaky in little 3-4 game chunks but very consistent overall. Dividing the season into 10-game stretches they've gone:
7-3 5-5 6-4 6-4 6-4 7-3
And now they've started 0-2 on their next stretch, but I figure that just means they'll go 6-2 in their next eight. I actually find it interesting how consistent they've been. Compare to the Yankees or Rays for instance.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 10, 2021 1:08:42 GMT -5
That should be the hitting coach job to keep them in the zone. Lunging at sliders away and trying to hit fastballs shoulder high and way inside. it doesn't hurt to draw a walk. I am turning a little bit sour on Hyers. It's one of those things that if you acquire players who have a long history of undisciplined hacking and they go out there and hack away at bad pitches, that's more on the GM than the hitting coach. It's crazy. You look at the records and you'd think the Astros would have a better record than the Red Sox. Their pythag record is better and I suspect shortly they will overtake Oakland and have a better record than the Sox, too, and it wouldn't shock me to see Houston have a better record than Tampa Bay, too. We talk about how strong the #2 - #5 spots are for the Red Sox, but seriously the Astros have seven spots in the lineup that are very above average. Their catching and CF is below average, but if Castro gets healthy that could fix some of their catching issues. The bottom line is that their offense takes their walks and doesn't strike out much and their offense is flat out better than the Sox. And their pitching is better, too. Like the Sox are missing Sale, so too is Houston with Verlander, but when Odorizzi is your worst starter, that's a pretty good staff. Between Valdez, Garcia, Javier, McCullers, and Greinke, that's one helluva staff. They have a solid closer in Pressley. Their middle relief is so-so, but all in all I'd say they have better pitching. The Sox are a very good team but they're no match for Houston and it plays out when the two teams face each other. The Sox would be very fortunate not to get swept and frankly it wouldn't surprise me at all if they do get swept at Fenway. I don't know if Houston is still cheating, but if so, they haven't been caught this year yet, but I think they're the class of the league. I think the White Sox should be, but LaRussa will mess them up and the injury to Luis Robert hurts them as well, but they're on the way up if LaRussa doesn't get in the way. I shouldn't dismiss Tampa and we'll get a better look at them, but I think of them as the classic overachiever and without the talent Houston has. In the playoffs anything can happen, but at this point I think the Astros look like the strongest team. An improvement I’ve been arguing for all year. Whenever I do several people here point out how well the Sox are doing by wRC+ or wOBA or WAR. When I point out other high achieving Sox teams had all of those at high levels spread through at seven player (and sometimes nine) people circle back to other stats or say things like, “they’re top 4/5 in MLB right now”, a first or second place team, etc. Everyone is right but quoting these facts does not negate the reality that most of their offense is tied up in 4 guys. That works enough (so far) to keep them in contention, but it won’t win the Division or get them to the World Series without tremendous good luck for the Sox and equal bad luck for Tampa, Houston, Chicago, Oakland and maybe Toronto. If they’re building for a core in the future, what core will be better than Xander, JD and Devers - with Verdugo as a great complementary piece. I see two potentially nice pieces in the minors - Casas and Duran (with Downs to determined), but by the time Casas is up, JD is likely gone and maybe even Xander, too.The core is now. If they really want to win they need at least two more solid contributors to spread out the potential for success.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 10, 2021 7:17:55 GMT -5
It's one of those things that if you acquire players who have a long history of undisciplined hacking and they go out there and hack away at bad pitches, that's more on the GM than the hitting coach. It's crazy. You look at the records and you'd think the Astros would have a better record than the Red Sox. Their pythag record is better and I suspect shortly they will overtake Oakland and have a better record than the Sox, too, and it wouldn't shock me to see Houston have a better record than Tampa Bay, too. We talk about how strong the #2 - #5 spots are for the Red Sox, but seriously the Astros have seven spots in the lineup that are very above average. Their catching and CF is below average, but if Castro gets healthy that could fix some of their catching issues. The bottom line is that their offense takes their walks and doesn't strike out much and their offense is flat out better than the Sox. And their pitching is better, too. Like the Sox are missing Sale, so too is Houston with Verlander, but when Odorizzi is your worst starter, that's a pretty good staff. Between Valdez, Garcia, Javier, McCullers, and Greinke, that's one helluva staff. They have a solid closer in Pressley. Their middle relief is so-so, but all in all I'd say they have better pitching. The Sox are a very good team but they're no match for Houston and it plays out when the two teams face each other. The Sox would be very fortunate not to get swept and frankly it wouldn't surprise me at all if they do get swept at Fenway. I don't know if Houston is still cheating, but if so, they haven't been caught this year yet, but I think they're the class of the league. I think the White Sox should be, but LaRussa will mess them up and the injury to Luis Robert hurts them as well, but they're on the way up if LaRussa doesn't get in the way. I shouldn't dismiss Tampa and we'll get a better look at them, but I think of them as the classic overachiever and without the talent Houston has. In the playoffs anything can happen, but at this point I think the Astros look like the strongest team. An improvement Iâve been arguing for all year. Whenever I do several people here point out how well the Sox are doing by wRC+ or wOBA or WAR. When I point out other high achieving Sox teams had all of those at high levels spread through at seven player (and sometimes nine) people circle back to other stats or say things like, âtheyâre top 4/5 in MLB right nowâ, a first or second place team, etc. Everyone is right but quoting these facts does not negate the reality that most of their offense is tied up in 4 guys. That works enough (so far) to keep them in contention, but it wonât win the Division or get them to the World Series without tremendous good luck for the Sox and equal bad luck for Tampa, Houston, Chicago, Oakland and maybe Toronto. If theyâre building for a core in the future, what core will be better than Xander, JD and Devers - with Verdugo as a great complementary piece. I see two potentially nice pieces in the minors - Casas and Duran (with Downs to determined), but by the time Casas is up, JD is likely gone and maybe even Xander, too.The core is now. If they really want to win they need at least two more solid contributors to spread out the potential for success. I think 1b is a given. They can't keep going on with what they have. They can audition Dalbec for two more months and see if he can stay hot for more than a week or two, because what good is it if he gets hot for a week or two and stops hitting for the next month afterward? By July he will be where he's at - which is most likely "failed the audition, but had a chance". We knew with his strikeout rate, that being a Mendoza line type hitter could be the potential outcome and his power output hasn't nearly offset that at all. Yes, those 460 foot bombs are impressive, but it's not necessarily how far you hit them rather than you often you hit them. And Santana is failing his chance right now and doesn't seem like a better option at 1b. Chavis has already failed a couple of times. He can't catch up to a high fastball nor can he lay off. It seems to me unless you rush Casas, which doesn't seem like a good idea - I mean he'd have to continue to crush AA pitching, get called up to AAA by next month and continue to rake without any signs of drop-off and then you'd have to hope that he can continue to rake once he got called up to the show. While possible, that's a lot to put on him. So a trade for a 1b is the most likely outcome. I'm not sure who's out there. I can guess that Aguilar is and he could be a good fit. The question is how much is Bloom willing to send back? Does he take a chance on a AAA 1b blocked by somebody on the major league roster? And no, I don't think Josh Ockimey is the guy as I don't think his defense would cut it and he can't handle lefties. And an outfield spot would need to be upgraded. The hope is Duran gets called up by July 1st and shows us whether he's ready. At this point I would think the Sox would sink or swim with him because he is about 25 and it is getting close to that time for him. Of course the idea is that Renfroe will continue to hit. I love what he's been doing but don't know if he can keep that up. Christian Vazquez got a ton of accolades in April for being among the best catchers in baseball and then stopped hitting. His lack of power has been surprising. He would have to pick up the pace some. And Christian Arroyo would have to continue to hit well, too. I think that's how the Sox "fix" their lineup. No, it wouldn't be the Astros' lineup as those guys are pretty much all-stars. I mean their whole infield mashes. Alvarez is scary good. Brantley is a solid hitter and Tucker is a guy the Sox cannot get out, but he's overall becoming a good player. But at least Sox would have a better chance because right now they have four good hitters, Renfroe on a hot streak, Arroyo doing some hitting, and that's it. They won't go far if they have guaranteed outs in Marwin Gonzalez, Kiké Hernandez, Danny Santana, and Bobby Dalbec playing. Way too many outs for a good pitching staff to exploit in October. And the way they're looking right now, October is a 50-50 proposition. I figure the most likely outcome at the moment is that the Sox meet the A's in the Wild Card game as I figure Houston will eventually pass Oakland. And the other thing is that the Sox would have to be better than NY and Cleveland to even make the wild card game and I think they can do that, although that's hardly a guarantee but I am more bullish on that possibility. Of course the desired outcome would be to get and stay ahead of Tampa to avoid the coin toss game. And it's kind of the same thing with their pitching staff. They have solid starting pitching but nobody that separates themselves and can be scary to face twice in a five game series. That is unless Chris Sale comes back as Chris Sale and I think it would be unfair to expect that. I think 2021 is a wonderful season where a lot of things have gone right. I don't think they have the horses to pull off the ultimate victory, but then again teams that are better than the Sox this year will have the same fate as only one team can win it all. The fact that the Sox could gel and Bloom could do enough sneaky good stuff to help them succeed is a good sign for their future. Guidas, I know you don't see much high end on the future Red Sox and I do see your point, but I think it can still work. Say the Sox draft Davis - well there's your catcher. Maybe the Sox splurge big bucks on Correa or somebody down the road who can play SS, so Bogaerts, if they keep him, shifts to 3b, Downs hopefully takes 2b, Casas makes it big at 1b. Devers hopefully gets extended and winds up taking JDM's spot at DH (to be honest, I think JDM is capable of being a really good DH for a long time but I don't see Bloom giving him that kind of money in his 30s) Hopefully Duran is impactful atop the lineup. Hopefully Verdugo takes the step up that Benintendi didn't. I figure that somebody comes up to play CF. I would guess Rosario might be a possibility - it would be nice to have a batter with selectivity and speed, but I am high on Jimenez and hope that a few years down the road he's ready - I'm hoping by 2023 but that's probably unrealistic at this point. I think what Bloom will do is stock the system with good players at a lot of levels creating waves of talent in the system and perhaps he consolidates some of that into (an) elite player(s) through trades. Perhaps he'll rip off somebody in a trade. Maybe the next Franchy Cordero turns into David Ortiz, who knows? I do feel there's a reasonable chance that Bloom can build what he's envisioning. I think the 2021 Red Sox are a pleasant surprising step along the way. If they play in 2022, I wouldn't be surprised if the team had a bunch of stuff go wrong and they struggled to play .500 and he further supplemented the farm system through opportunistic trades and then suddenly around 2023/2024, they take two steps forward and suddenly the Sox are closer to the team that Bloom was truly envisioning complete with waves of talent coming up throughout the entire levels of the minor league system - the sustainable model he's talking about.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 10, 2021 7:49:47 GMT -5
An improvement Iâve been arguing for all year. Whenever I do several people here point out how well the Sox are doing by wRC+ or wOBA or WAR. When I point out other high achieving Sox teams had all of those at high levels spread through at seven player (and sometimes nine) people circle back to other stats or say things like, âtheyâre top 4/5 in MLB right nowâ, a first or second place team, etc. Everyone is right but quoting these facts does not negate the reality that most of their offense is tied up in 4 guys. That works enough (so far) to keep them in contention, but it wonât win the Division or get them to the World Series without tremendous good luck for the Sox and equal bad luck for Tampa, Houston, Chicago, Oakland and maybe Toronto. If theyâre building for a core in the future, what core will be better than Xander, JD and Devers - with Verdugo as a great complementary piece. I see two potentially nice pieces in the minors - Casas and Duran (with Downs to determined), but by the time Casas is up, JD is likely gone and maybe even Xander, too.The core is now. If they really want to win they need at least two more solid contributors to spread out the potential for success. I think 1b is a given. They can't keep going on with what they have. They can audition Dalbec for two more months and see if he can stay hot for more than a week or two, because what good is it if he gets hot for a week or two and stops hitting for the next month afterward? By July he will be where he's at - which is most likely "failed the audition, but had a chance". We knew with his strikeout rate, that being a Mendoza line type hitter could be the potential outcome and his power output hasn't nearly offset that at all. Yes, those 460 foot bombs are impressive, but it's not necessarily how far you hit them rather than you often you hit them. And Santana is failing his chance right now and doesn't seem like a better option at 1b. Chavis has already failed a couple of times. He can't catch up to a high fastball nor can he lay off. It seems to me unless you rush Casas, which doesn't seem like a good idea - I mean he'd have to continue to crush AA pitching, get called up to AAA by next month and continue to rake without any signs of drop-off and then you'd have to hope that he can continue to rake once he got called up to the show. While possible, that's a lot to put on him. So a trade for a 1b is the most likely outcome. I'm not sure who's out there. I can guess that Aguilar is and he could be a good fit. The question is how much is Bloom willing to send back? Does he take a chance on a AAA 1b blocked by somebody on the major league roster? And no, I don't think Josh Ockimey is the guy as I don't think his defense would cut it and he can't handle lefties. And an outfield spot would need to be upgraded. The hope is Duran gets called up by July 1st and shows us whether he's ready. At this point I would think the Sox would sink or swim with him because he is about 25 and it is getting close to that time for him. Of course the idea is that Renfroe will continue to hit. I love what he's been doing but don't know if he can keep that up. Christian Vazquez got a ton of accolades in April for being among the best catchers in baseball and then stopped hitting. His lack of power has been surprising. He would have to pick up the pace some. And Christian Arroyo would have to continue to hit well, too. I think that's how the Sox "fix" their lineup. No, it wouldn't be the Astros' lineup as those guys are pretty much all-stars. I mean their whole infield mashes. Alvarez is scary good. Brantley is a solid hitter and Tucker is a guy the Sox cannot get out, but he's overall becoming a good player. But at least Sox would have a better chance because right now they have four good hitters, Renfroe on a hot streak, Arroyo doing some hitting, and that's it. They won't go far if they have guaranteed outs in Marwin Gonzalez, Kiké Hernandez, Danny Santana, and Bobby Dalbec playing. Way too many outs for a good pitching staff to exploit in October. And the way they're looking right now, October is a 50-50 proposition. I figure the most likely outcome at the moment is that the Sox meet the A's in the Wild Card game as I figure Houston will eventually pass Oakland. And the other thing is that the Sox would have to be better than NY and Cleveland to even make the wild card game and I think they can do that, although that's hardly a guarantee but I am more bullish on that possibility. Of course the desired outcome would be to get and stay ahead of Tampa to avoid the coin toss game. And it's kind of the same thing with their pitching staff. They have solid starting pitching but nobody that separates themselves and can be scary to face twice in a five game series. That is unless Chris Sale comes back as Chris Sale and I think it would be unfair to expect that. I think 2021 is a wonderful season where a lot of things have gone right. I don't think they have the horses to pull off the ultimate victory, but then again teams that are better than the Sox this year will have the same fate as only one team can win it all. The fact that the Sox could gel and Bloom could do enough sneaky good stuff to help them succeed is a good sign for their future. Guidas, I know you don't see much high end on the future Red Sox and I do see your point, but I think it can still work. Say the Sox draft Davis - well there's your catcher. Maybe the Sox splurge big bucks on Correa or somebody down the road who can play SS, so Bogaerts, if they keep him, shifts to 3b, Downs hopefully takes 2b, Casas makes it big at 1b. Devers hopefully gets extended and winds up taking JDM's spot at DH (to be honest, I think JDM is capable of being a really good DH for a long time but I don't see Bloom giving him that kind of money in his 30s) Hopefully Duran is impactful atop the lineup. Hopefully Verdugo takes the step up that Benintendi didn't. I figure that somebody comes up to play CF. I would guess Rosario might be a possibility - it would be nice to have a batter with selectivity and speed, but I am high on Jimenez and hope that a few years down the road he's ready - I'm hoping by 2023 but that's probably unrealistic at this point. I think what Bloom will do is stock the system with good players at a lot of levels creating waves of talent in the system and perhaps he consolidates some of that into (an) elite player(s) through trades. Perhaps he'll rip off somebody in a trade. Maybe the next Franchy Cordero turns into David Ortiz, who knows? I do feel there's a reasonable chance that Bloom can build what he's envisioning. I think the 2021 Red Sox are a pleasant surprising step along the way. If they play in 2022, I wouldn't be surprised if the team had a bunch of stuff go wrong and they struggled to play .500 and he further supplemented the farm system through opportunistic trades and then suddenly around 2023/2024, they take two steps forward and suddenly the Sox are closer to the team that Bloom was truly envisioning complete with waves of talent coming up throughout the entire levels of the minor league system - the sustainable model he's talking about. All good points, and I agree about JDM. Not quite Big Papi but if he stays in shape, a productive 30+ HR DH for several years to come, but I think Bloom will let him go first chance he gets. I am hopeful about Casas and Duran (a bit less so about Downs and would actually consider trading him while his stock is high) but I am really of the mind that if they want to build on what they have here, Bloom will have to spend some legit money this winter. I would prefer a big move or two at the deadline, at least one of these being for an impact player with control. I mentioned Ketel Marte but there are a few others who might be pried away. I just hate to piss away an opportunity that's this close to success. Oh, and this sure sounds like, in the most polite way, Xander will opt out unless they pay him more after 2022: Does he have a different perspective than two years ago?
"I do," Bogaerts responded. "Obviously, I know love the city, but you know how all those guys are getting paid and stuff like that. So when that time comes we’ll see what that happens. It’s very interesting. A lot of guys are getting what they deserve. We’ll see what happens."Sigh.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jun 10, 2021 8:03:07 GMT -5
Well Xander did sign his deal prior to his big break out season so it just makes sense that he has a raise coming, the Sox have been fortunate to have him at 20 in all reality. I just hope he does want to stay and doesn't go hunting for top dollar, it's up to the Sox to not lowball him and get a decent deal for all parties. Question is how does his D age at short as 3rd doesn't look like an option.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 10, 2021 8:52:54 GMT -5
Well Xander did sign his deal prior to his big break out season so it just makes sense that he has a raise coming, the Sox have been fortunate to have him at 20 in all reality. I just hope he does want to stay and doesn't go hunting for top dollar, it's up to the Sox to not lowball him and get a decent deal for all parties. Question is how does his D age at short as 3rd doesn't look like an option. If there was no emotional attachment to Xander, you could coldly look at it and say, "Xander wants $30 million/$300 million over 10 years". Is he worth that as a 3b? And you keep Devers at 3b long-term. Because you know darn well that at some point Xander's defense at SS will eventually point him toward 3b, so you're not paying him all that money for him as a SS. Devers is a guy you'd want to sign long-term but his defense at 3b over the long term is questionable so maybe you shift him over to DH (as much as I think JDM could have a Nelson Cruz like career and I'd like to see the Sox keep him, I wouldn't anticipate he winds up elsewhere) and he hits well enough that works out, so I think you can re-sign both long-term to big contracts and not be forced to play them at SS/3b respectively but you're paying them ultimately to be a 3b/DH respectively. The thing is though, at this point, if there's ever a guy who is and has wanted to be "the face of the franchise" it's Xander. We always knew Mookie was going to go for the highest dollar no matter what, and we knew that wouldn't come from Boston. Xander already took a hometown discount of sorts and has made it clear how much he wants to stay, but he's not going to stay if the Sox aren't competitive in their offer. There is loyalty and then there's crazy. I think X could hit well enough to be a solid 3b going well into his 30s. He probably could wind up with 3000 hits and 400 HRs along the way and a plaque at Cooperstown if he stays healthy. I think there's a value in a franchise guy and not being a team that turns over so damn much that there's not a constant. Ted Williams was a constant. Yaz, Jim Rice, David Ortiz, and now it's X. That's obviously a brand type of thing, but I think it is important to have a core member be a lifer, so to speak. The Sox don't necessarily have to offer top dollar but they need to be highly competitive with that top dollar offer or else, yes, they will lose him. I suspect that the Sox will try to keep him. If Tampa was in this situation, they'd let him go, but because the Red Sox have more money in the budget, I think they will try and unless the market goes far beyond $30 million/year I think they will be able to keep him because I think any team that goes after Xander knows that his future is at 3b and it's not that far off into the future, so I think that will keep him from getting what Correa will get or what Lindor got.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 10, 2021 9:28:22 GMT -5
Just heard a stat - Sox are worst in baseball at swinging at balls out of the zone - 35% - also last at walks....so a very undisciplined team at the plate so far. Per Fangraphs: 7.0% BB% is 30th in MLB by .5 percentage points 35.5% O-Swing% is highest in MLB by a full percentage point. But 65.2% O-Contact% is second-highest in MLB, with Houston way in front at 69.2% and the 3rd-best 0.8 pct points behind. Per Baseball Savant: 32% Chase % is highest in baseball. 58.4% Chase Contact is second-highest. 27.1% Whiff rate is 11th-highest 9.2% Barrel rate is 8th-highest 6.8% Solid rate is 4th-highest 3.3% Weak rate is lowest As I've said previously, I'm not sure it's as easy as "stop chasing pitches out of the zone." They're easily the most aggressive team at the plate in the game, but at the same time, they also connect on more pitches outside the zone than anyone and they generally make good contact, so you'd be inclined to think that's true outside the zone as well. I don't think you can assume that the aggressiveness, toned back, would not affect other offensive traits of this team in one way or another. It could certainly be better! They also might make worse contact or something. I'm not sure if there's a way to get team leaderboards on Savant's Heart-Shadow-Chase-Waste runs numbers, because the real way to see if they're hurting themselves by being aggressive outside of the zone is to see how they do on the latter three numbers against the league. Looking at Chase and Waste pitches, their worst hitters have been Cordero, Arroyo, and Dalbec. Two of those names are obviously no surprise and part of me thinks Arroyo is there because of a smaller sample. But for example, Gonzalez has been fine on pitches out of the zone - he's just awful on pitches in the Heart, one of the worst in the game (H/T Hairps).
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Post by voiceofreason on Jun 10, 2021 9:44:21 GMT -5
Well Xander did sign his deal prior to his big break out season so it just makes sense that he has a raise coming, the Sox have been fortunate to have him at 20 in all reality. I just hope he does want to stay and doesn't go hunting for top dollar, it's up to the Sox to not lowball him and get a decent deal for all parties. Question is how does his D age at short as 3rd doesn't look like an option. If there was no emotional attachment to Xander, you could coldly look at it and say, "Xander wants $30 million/$300 million over 10 years". Is he worth that as a 3b? And you keep Devers at 3b long-term. Because you know darn well that at some point Xander's defense at SS will eventually point him toward 3b, so you're not paying him all that money for him as a SS. Devers is a guy you'd want to sign long-term but his defense at 3b over the long term is questionable so maybe you shift him over to DH (as much as I think JDM could have a Nelson Cruz like career and I'd like to see the Sox keep him, I wouldn't anticipate he winds up elsewhere) and he hits well enough that works out, so I think you can re-sign both long-term to big contracts and not be forced to play them at SS/3b respectively but you're paying them ultimately to be a 3b/DH respectively. The thing is though, at this point, if there's ever a guy who is and has wanted to be "the face of the franchise" it's Xander. We always knew Mookie was going to go for the highest dollar no matter what, and we knew that wouldn't come from Boston. Xander already took a hometown discount of sorts and has made it clear how much he wants to stay, but he's not going to stay if the Sox aren't competitive in their offer. There is loyalty and then there's crazy. I think X could hit well enough to be a solid 3b going well into his 30s. He probably could wind up with 3000 hits and 400 HRs along the way and a plaque at Cooperstown if he stays healthy. I think there's a value in a franchise guy and not being a team that turns over so damn much that there's not a constant. Ted Williams was a constant. Yaz, Jim Rice, David Ortiz, and now it's X. That's obviously a brand type of thing, but I think it is important to have a core member be a lifer, so to speak. The Sox don't necessarily have to offer top dollar but they need to be highly competitive with that top dollar offer or else, yes, they will lose him. I suspect that the Sox will try to keep him. If Tampa was in this situation, they'd let him go, but because the Red Sox have more money in the budget, I think they will try and unless the market goes far beyond $30 million/year I think they will be able to keep him because I think any team that goes after Xander knows that his future is at 3b and it's not that far off into the future, so I think that will keep him from getting what Correa will get or what Lindor got. I was going to say a lot of what you did but I am rather short winded and to the point. In regards to Devers moving to DH, I doubt highly that is what he wants and that matters. For one he won't sign long term if that is the case and you don't have him locked up. If you do have him locked up you have an unhappy player that is likely to be overpaid as a DH if he is no longer at third. Those were my reasons for saying third is not a likely option. So is Bogey a future LF option? Where else would he fit once he doesn't at short. And I don't think he is a 30/300 candidate once he opts out at what 30. I think a reasonable win win deal is less than that all things considered.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 10, 2021 10:02:37 GMT -5
If there was no emotional attachment to Xander, you could coldly look at it and say, "Xander wants $30 million/$300 million over 10 years". Is he worth that as a 3b? And you keep Devers at 3b long-term. Because you know darn well that at some point Xander's defense at SS will eventually point him toward 3b, so you're not paying him all that money for him as a SS. Devers is a guy you'd want to sign long-term but his defense at 3b over the long term is questionable so maybe you shift him over to DH (as much as I think JDM could have a Nelson Cruz like career and I'd like to see the Sox keep him, I wouldn't anticipate he winds up elsewhere) and he hits well enough that works out, so I think you can re-sign both long-term to big contracts and not be forced to play them at SS/3b respectively but you're paying them ultimately to be a 3b/DH respectively. The thing is though, at this point, if there's ever a guy who is and has wanted to be "the face of the franchise" it's Xander. We always knew Mookie was going to go for the highest dollar no matter what, and we knew that wouldn't come from Boston. Xander already took a hometown discount of sorts and has made it clear how much he wants to stay, but he's not going to stay if the Sox aren't competitive in their offer. There is loyalty and then there's crazy. I think X could hit well enough to be a solid 3b going well into his 30s. He probably could wind up with 3000 hits and 400 HRs along the way and a plaque at Cooperstown if he stays healthy. I think there's a value in a franchise guy and not being a team that turns over so damn much that there's not a constant. Ted Williams was a constant. Yaz, Jim Rice, David Ortiz, and now it's X. That's obviously a brand type of thing, but I think it is important to have a core member be a lifer, so to speak. The Sox don't necessarily have to offer top dollar but they need to be highly competitive with that top dollar offer or else, yes, they will lose him. I suspect that the Sox will try to keep him. If Tampa was in this situation, they'd let him go, but because the Red Sox have more money in the budget, I think they will try and unless the market goes far beyond $30 million/year I think they will be able to keep him because I think any team that goes after Xander knows that his future is at 3b and it's not that far off into the future, so I think that will keep him from getting what Correa will get or what Lindor got. I was going to say a lot of what you did but I am rather short winded and to the point.
In regards to Devers moving to DH, I doubt highly that is what he wants and that matters. For one he won't sign long term if that is the case and you don't have him locked up. If you do have him locked up you have an unhappy player that is likely to be overpaid as a DH if he is no longer at third. Those were my reasons for saying third is not a likely option. So is Bogey a future LF option? Where else would he fit once he doesn't at short. And I don't think he is a 30/300 candidate once he opts out at what 30. I think a reasonable win win deal is less than that all things considered. Regarding the bold, I've gotta work on that Hard to teach a middle aged dog new tricks. I guess it comes down to how Devers feels about it, because unless X plays LF or 2b, then yeah, you can't pay $60 million to play two guys at 3b and we can assume/hope 1b will be locked down with Tristan Casas. I was under the impression that Devers loves to get paid, play baseball, and hit home runs, in whatever order, and that while he gives an honest effort at 3b, that hitting is more his thing. But you're right that if he's a DH and locked up, he could be miserable about that. I would say that the plan to move Devers and X off of their positions wouldn't happen prior or immediately after a re-signing. But if you're right, and you well could be, then I'm sure they'll figure out a way to spend the $30 million/year not spent on either X or Devers. If X doesn't re-sign they concentrate on locking up Devers. If X signs, perhaps they let Devers walk, especially if his D doesn't improve and X shows more immediate signs of needing to be replaced at SS - once you hit 30 a guy's time at SS is kind of limited, unless they're a statue like Derek Jeter.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jun 10, 2021 10:33:50 GMT -5
We have discussed this before. You do tend to contribute long posts but they are worth reading for me. We agree a lot and your posts aren't too repetitive but informative, your opinions but they have backing. I tend to state opinions with out the facts or thoughts to back them up, maybe something I should work on.
I absolutely want them to keep both XB and RD, I think that is paramount, but I'm hoping it isn't going to cost 30/300. Fact is 30/300 has been established for a while and will probably become more common in the future, more affordable also with higher caps. So who knows but keeping those guys should be part of the plan. Speaking of caps, the new CBA looming will bring about change, what that looks like who knows but much of what we discuss about caps and penalties will be different.
I think they both want to stay so that helps. Cora as the coach helps also and maybe that could work in our favor when it comes to FA in the future. Cora having a great reputation league wide with players, especially Latin players who like to stick together, could be a benefit when getting guys here for less.
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Post by congusgambler33 on Jun 10, 2021 10:59:49 GMT -5
That should be the hitting coach job to keep them in the zone. Lunging at sliders away and trying to hit fastballs shoulder high and way inside. it doesn't hurt to draw a walk. I am turning a little bit sour on Hyers. It's one of those things that if you acquire players who have a long history of undisciplined hacking and they go out there and hack away at bad pitches, that's more on the GM than the hitting coach. It's crazy. You look at the records and you'd think the Astros would have a better record than the Red Sox. Their pythag record is better and I suspect shortly they will overtake Oakland and have a better record than the Sox, too, and it wouldn't shock me to see Houston have a better record than Tampa Bay, too. We talk about how strong the #2 - #5 spots are for the Red Sox, but seriously the Astros have seven spots in the lineup that are very above average. Their catching and CF is below average, but if Castro gets healthy that could fix some of their catching issues. The bottom line is that their offense takes their walks and doesn't strike out much and their offense is flat out better than the Sox. And their pitching is better, too. Like the Sox are missing Sale, so too is Houston with Verlander, but when Odorizzi is your worst starter, that's a pretty good staff. Between Valdez, Garcia, Javier, McCullers, and Greinke, that's one helluva staff. They have a solid closer in Pressley. Their middle relief is so-so, but all in all I'd say they have better pitching. The Sox are a very good team but they're no match for Houston and it plays out when the two teams face each other. The Sox would be very fortunate not to get swept and frankly it wouldn't surprise me at all if they do get swept at Fenway. I don't know if Houston is still cheating, but if so, they haven't been caught this year yet, but I think they're the class of the league. I think the White Sox should be, but LaRussa will mess them up and the injury to Luis Robert hurts them as well, but they're on the way up if LaRussa doesn't get in the way. I shouldn't dismiss Tampa and we'll get a better look at them, but I think of them as the classic overachiever and without the talent Houston has. In the playoffs anything can happen, but at this point I think the Astros look like the strongest team.
That was well said and i know that Bloom filled in with players to be competitive and they have been, but they should have an idea of pitch recognition by now. they seem to understand that, but it doesn't show up in the box score. they are last in walks and last in swinging at pitches out of the zone. something has got to give on that front.
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Post by manfred on Jun 10, 2021 11:16:36 GMT -5
Just noticed — and was surprised to see — Dalbec is last in the AL in bWAR for all eligible players. Literally the least valuable player in the league. Ooofff. I think they are a little hard on his defense, but still…
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Post by Guidas on Jun 10, 2021 12:38:58 GMT -5
Just heard a stat - Sox are worst in baseball at swinging at balls out of the zone - 35% - also last at walks....so a very undisciplined team at the plate so far. Per Fangraphs: 7.0% BB% is 30th in MLB by .5 percentage points 35.5% O-Swing% is highest in MLB by a full percentage point. But 65.2% O-Contact% is second-highest in MLB, with Houston way in front at 69.2% and the 3rd-best 0.8 pct points behind. Per Baseball Savant: 32% Chase % is highest in baseball. 58.4% Chase Contact is second-highest. 27.1% Whiff rate is 11th-highest 9.2% Barrel rate is 8th-highest 6.8% Solid rate is 4th-highest 3.3% Weak rate is lowest As I've said previously, I'm not sure it's as easy as "stop chasing pitches out of the zone." They're easily the most aggressive team at the plate in the game, but at the same time, they also connect on more pitches outside the zone than anyone and they generally make good contact, so you'd be inclined to think that's true outside the zone as well. I don't think you can assume that the aggressiveness, toned back, would not affect other offensive traits of this team in one way or another. It could certainly be better! They also might make worse contact or something. I'm not sure if there's a way to get team leaderboards on Savant's Heart-Shadow-Chase-Waste runs numbers, because the real way to see if they're hurting themselves by being aggressive outside of the zone is to see how they do on the latter three numbers against the league. Looking at Chase and Waste pitches, their worst hitters have been Cordero, Arroyo, and Dalbec. Two of those names are obviously no surprise and part of me thinks Arroyo is there because of a smaller sample. But for example, Gonzalez has been fine on pitches out of the zone - he's just awful on pitches in the Heart, one of the worst in the game (H/T Hairps). The chase contact outside the zone is a tricky stat, though, because it can be weak contact or hitting into double plays or popping out, right? There is no guarantee that that contact is going for hits. personally, I prefer a team that works zone and the ipitchers, and turns in more walks. But these guys seem to have been swing happy all year, despite what Cora says about hunting strikes and staying in the zone. i’ve seen guys strike out several times this year where there may have been one pitch in the zone. Granted, sometimes a pitcher has nasty stuff diving out of the zone at the last moment, but more often than not they are chasing..
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Post by congusgambler33 on Jun 10, 2021 12:53:35 GMT -5
Just heard a stat - Sox are worst in baseball at swinging at balls out of the zone - 35% - also last at walks....so a very undisciplined team at the plate so far. Per Fangraphs: 7.0% BB% is 30th in MLB by .5 percentage points 35.5% O-Swing% is highest in MLB by a full percentage point. But 65.2% O-Contact% is second-highest in MLB, with Houston way in front at 69.2% and the 3rd-best 0.8 pct points behind. Per Baseball Savant: 32% Chase % is highest in baseball. 58.4% Chase Contact is second-highest. 27.1% Whiff rate is 11th-highest 9.2% Barrel rate is 8th-highest 6.8% Solid rate is 4th-highest 3.3% Weak rate is lowest As I've said previously, I'm not sure it's as easy as "stop chasing pitches out of the zone." They're easily the most aggressive team at the plate in the game, but at the same time, they also connect on more pitches outside the zone than anyone and they generally make good contact, so you'd be inclined to think that's true outside the zone as well. I don't think you can assume that the aggressiveness, toned back, would not affect other offensive traits of this team in one way or another. It could certainly be better! They also might make worse contact or something. I'm not sure if there's a way to get team leaderboards on Savant's Heart-Shadow-Chase-Waste runs numbers, because the real way to see if they're hurting themselves by being aggressive outside of the zone is to see how they do on the latter three numbers against the league. Looking at Chase and Waste pitches, their worst hitters have been Cordero, Arroyo, and Dalbec. Two of those names are obviously no surprise and part of me thinks Arroyo is there because of a smaller sample. But for example, Gonzalez has been fine on pitches out of the zone - he's just awful on pitches in the Heart, one of the worst in the game (H/T Hairps
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Post by congusgambler33 on Jun 10, 2021 13:20:41 GMT -5
Maybe from my experience in playing, I have a different point of view. the only time I would chase a pitch outside is when a runner was on third and I want to make weak contact to the left side to bring him home (I swung from the left side). As far as high pitches out of the zone I would avoid them as much as possible being a leadoff hitter I wanted to get the pitch in the zone to drive it, if not take a walk which i often did. It afforded me a 417 batting average and my walks usually became runs when our big boppers would drive me in.
If you follow the sox enough you will notice that very often when they walk a batter that batter comes around to score and that is why i am against swinging out of the zone. Take a walk, make the pitcher pitch to you. I have often seen them take pitches right down the middle on a 3rd strike and that is maddening. i was very impressed with Houston fouling off pitches on the corners and wait for a pitch to drive which they did in that 3rd inning. that is Dusty Baker IMO.
I know baseball is different from when i played, but some of it is ridiculous in the thinking. I used the bunt often to great success, so why would that be any different now? Cora even stresses hitting to the opposite field against sinker ball pitchers and that is exactly right. I did it all the time and there is no reason that they should hit right into a shift. i wish they had the shift when i was playing, i would have hit over 500 with that.
I don't want to be tooting my own horn except to say what I did when i was playing was successful and still would be successful now after all, It is still baseball.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 10, 2021 14:18:01 GMT -5
So Cora was just teasing us with Arroyo. Because, I mean, who wants a lead-off hitter with a .283/.336/.414 stat line when you can have one who's .223/.287.383?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 10, 2021 14:32:55 GMT -5
Hernandez vs. Greinke 3/12 with 2 HR? I dunno. Strange.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 10, 2021 14:44:13 GMT -5
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shagworthy
Veteran
My neckbeard game is on point.
Posts: 1,845
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Post by shagworthy on Jun 10, 2021 14:56:51 GMT -5
Sometimes I feel like we aren't watching the same game. I trust Cora, I really do, but he's really trying to ram home this Kiké as a lead-off hitter thing, and he just isn't cut for it. He was swinging better because he was appropriately placed at the bottom of the lineup. He does not belong in the lead off spot. Now, none of this matters if the Sox pitchers can't quell the Astros offense. It really looked like they knew in advance exactly what Eovaldi and Perez were going to throw, and Eovaldi didn't have any sort of command in the zone which is a recipe for disaster. Whatever happened to home cooking? The sooner they can get out of Fenway, the better for this club. They look horrible at home.
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Post by congusgambler33 on Jun 10, 2021 15:05:15 GMT -5
In the last 6 at bats, Arroyo has struck out 5 times maybe has something to do with it. i like the fact they have got several versatile players that can play several positions. I just wish they would have found at least one that would hit.
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