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6/18-6/20 Red Sox @ Royals Series Thread
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 18, 2021 6:52:20 GMT -5
6/18 Red Sox (RHP Nick Pivetta, 6-2, 4.28, 69.1 IP, 80K:33BB) @ Royals (RHP Kyle Zimmer, 3-0, 2.19, 24.2 IP, 24K:10BB) 8:10 pm ET, NESN/WEEI 6/19 Red Sox (LHP Martin Perez, 4-4, 4.52, 61.2 IP, 54K:22BB) @ Royals (LHP Kris Bubic, 1-2, 4.01, 42.2 IP, 37K:21BB) 4:10 pm ET, NESN/WEEI 6/20 Red Sox (RHP Nathan Eovaldi, 7-3, 3.76, 79.0 IP, 74K:18BB) @ Royals (RHP Brad Keller, 6-6, 6.14, 66.0 IP, 60K:30BB) 2:10 pm ET, NESN/WEEI MLB StandingsRed Sox Hitting StatsRed Sox Pitching StatsMLB ScoreboardMLB TransactionsA note regarding moderating of the gameday threads in 2021: As the disclaimer has always said, in the past, we have been very liberal in moderating the Gameday threads. They're meant to be a lot less formal than other threads on the forum, so to moderate them the same way would be silly. However, we do ask posters to maintain a certain level of decorum in these threads, and we plan on moderating the Gameday threads a little more actively this season. In particular, we ask that posters refrain from being overly repetitive with their posts (if you've made your point, let it go), refrain from monopolizing the discussion (if you are making more than a couple posts in a row, you probably need to slow down a little bit), and of course, follow the Ground Rules ( link). The point is to make these threads worth participating in and fun for all posters, from our long-time fixtures to people just signing up today. -The Management
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jun 18, 2021 7:47:47 GMT -5
hearing today that Benintendi won't be in lineup with sore ribs... Yeah he’s on the DL. Same side that ended last season
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 18, 2021 8:25:38 GMT -5
It would be Jackson Kowar's turn to go tonight, but he really struggled in his first two starts and Matheny said they might use him out of the bullpen. Considering how lights out he was at Omaha I don't think it makes sense to undercut him after facing 19 batters, but the Royals are gonna do their thing.
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redsox04071318champs
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Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 18, 2021 9:05:07 GMT -5
Just happened to notice when I was looking at the Sox' stats. Their pythag record has dropped off to 38-31 as their season record has a reached a season best 42-27.
I would think that at this point a 4 game discrepancy between the two records is kind of a big swing. Obviously the 18-4 drubbing (Saturday's game as well and the first two games of the Astros series) and these close game wins have contributed to the difference.
So the Sox basically are a 89-90 win talent team at the moment but are on track for about 98-99 wins, a nine game difference if the trend holds up all season.
Usually when that happens, I would think that it comes down to a good bullpen and some good managing in key spots of the ballgame and some good luck, which in this case would sound just about right as the Sox have won more games that they shouldn't have than the other way around (2019 was the other way around).
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jun 18, 2021 9:26:44 GMT -5
It would be Jackson Kowar's turn to go tonight, but he really struggled in his first two starts and Matheny said they might use him out of the bullpen. Considering how lights out he was at Omaha I don't think it makes sense to undercut him after facing 19 batters, but the Royals are gonna do their thing. Back in the 1970s and 1980s AAA starters many times were brought up and eased into the mlb as multi-inning relievers. It was a lower pressure way for young guys to get their feet wet. As they grew in confidence they were put in higher leverage situations and made spot starts. It is a huge jump from starting in AAA where results are taken with a grain of salt as fans see a great player one day and the next he is gone...off to the mlb. I always liked seeing the first several appearances for young prospects pitchers in low leverage situations. I certainly understand emergency starts or being thrust into big situations because of need, but that is not ideal for the player.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 18, 2021 9:34:58 GMT -5
After starting 16-9, the Royals lost 11 in a row to fall to 16-20. They rebounded a bit to get to 29-26, but have lost 11 of their last 12.
Sweep the leg, Johnny.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jun 18, 2021 9:49:12 GMT -5
After starting 16-9, the Royals lost 11 in a row to fall to 16-20. They rebounded a bit to get to 29-26, but have lost 11 of their last 12. Sweep the leg, Johnny. The Royals have given up 71 runs in their last 12 games, so obviously almost 6 runs per game is a lot for their offense to overcome. It is a good sign for the Red Sox, and i hope they can take advantage of it.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jun 18, 2021 10:29:44 GMT -5
After starting 16-9, the Royals lost 11 in a row to fall to 16-20. They rebounded a bit to get to 29-26, but have lost 11 of their last 12. Sweep the leg, Johnny. No mercy....
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jun 18, 2021 11:17:21 GMT -5
Just happened to notice when I was looking at the Sox' stats. Their pythag record has dropped off to 38-31 as their season record has a reached a season best 42-27. I would think that at this point a 4 game discrepancy between the two records is kind of a big swing. Obviously the 18-4 drubbing (Saturday's game as well and the first two games of the Astros series) and these close game wins have contributed to the difference. So the Sox basically are a 89-90 win talent team at the moment but are on track for about 98-99 wins, a nine game difference if the trend holds up all season. Usually when that happens, I would think that it comes down to a good bullpen and some good managing in key spots of the ballgame and some good luck, which in this case would sound just about right as the Sox have won more games that they shouldn't have than the other way around (2019 was the other way around). 89-90 wins is well beyond what systems and critics were projecting in March and April and even May. So that makes this unabashed homer happy. Interestingly, the brutal 17 consecutive game stretch was to have tested the team’s true talent, and ended 10-7. This latest success came despite SP problems and offensive holes, which can be fixed. To whit, Houck has begun rehab, Valdez, Brennan and others are near ready to come up, Duran and Franchy are figuring it out, etc., and it’s trade deadline time. I think this projection may again be too cautious. We can hope.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jun 18, 2021 13:44:56 GMT -5
After starting 16-9, the Royals lost 11 in a row to fall to 16-20. They rebounded a bit to get to 29-26, but have lost 11 of their last 12. Sweep the leg, Johnny. No mercy.... No discussion.....just kill the bastards? OK, I'm fine with that!!
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Post by chrisfromnc on Jun 18, 2021 14:08:42 GMT -5
No discussion.....just kill the bastards? OK, I'm fine with that!! Yes. Beat them ‘til they cry for their mommas.
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Post by foreverred9 on Jun 18, 2021 14:15:48 GMT -5
Just happened to notice when I was looking at the Sox' stats. Their pythag record has dropped off to 38-31 as their season record has a reached a season best 42-27. I would think that at this point a 4 game discrepancy between the two records is kind of a big swing. Obviously the 18-4 drubbing (Saturday's game as well and the first two games of the Astros series) and these close game wins have contributed to the difference. So the Sox basically are a 89-90 win talent team at the moment but are on track for about 98-99 wins, a nine game difference if the trend holds up all season. Usually when that happens, I would think that it comes down to a good bullpen and some good managing in key spots of the ballgame and some good luck, which in this case would sound just about right as the Sox have won more games that they shouldn't have than the other way around (2019 was the other way around). I was looking at the same thing last night, the 38 pythag wins surprised me as well. Their 12-6 record in 1 run games is likely the driver, but it seems like the Blue Jays series really put a dent in things. It's basically been the last 12 days, on 6/5 they were at 35 wins vs. 34 pythag wins: www.soxprospects.com/stats/standings.php?last=0605And then since then they went 7-4 since then vs. 4-7 expected, going 3-0 in 1-run games. www.soxprospects.com/stats/standings.php?first=0606So it seems like a blip of good luck, which primarily is them pulling a Houdini against the Blue Jays going 2-2 against a 14/31 run differential.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 18, 2021 14:22:15 GMT -5
Does anyone know how to look up team stats in 1 out/runner on 3rd vs. 2 out/runner on third situations? My impression is that with 1 out the Red Sox are batting roughly .120 with a 75% K rate, while they're batting about .600 with 2 outs.
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Post by foreverred9 on Jun 18, 2021 14:22:54 GMT -5
They continue to be a beacon of consistency with each 10-game stretch:
7-3 5-5 6-4 6-4 6-4 7-3 5-4
Based on this, tonight they are either going to win since 6-4 is what they typically do... or lose since they went 7-3 in the last 10-game stretch and they need to normalize back to .600-ball. Pick your probability theory.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jun 18, 2021 15:20:39 GMT -5
They continue to be a beacon of consistency with each 10-game stretch: 7-3 5-5 6-4 6-4 6-4 7-3 5-4 Based on this, tonight they are either going to win since 6-4 is what they typically do... or lose since they went 7-3 in the last 10-game stretch and they need to normalize back to .600-ball. Pick your probability theory. They will win, because they play the Royals who have lost 11 of their last 12 games.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 18, 2021 17:08:28 GMT -5
Cora adapting to the glorious Arroyo bat flips:
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Post by cheers on Jun 18, 2021 17:49:19 GMT -5
That is a pretty nice lineup 1-7. Hopefully they mash tonight so Cora doesn't feel compelled to mess with it going forward.
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Post by chrisfromnc on Jun 18, 2021 19:24:15 GMT -5
That is a pretty nice lineup 1-7. Hopefully they mash tonight so Cora doesn't feel compelled to mess with it going forward. Clearly, Alex Cora reads this message board. He’s obviously been influenced by the many aspiring major league managers and GMs amongst us.
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Post by cheers on Jun 18, 2021 19:27:16 GMT -5
That is a pretty nice lineup 1-7. Hopefully they mash tonight so Cora doesn't feel compelled to mess with it going forward. Clearly, Alex Cora reads this message board. He’s obviously been influenced by the many aspiring major league managers and GMs amongst us. If you combine all of us, we're probably worth about 1.7 brain geniuses (about as useful a metric as dwar)
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 18, 2021 19:30:30 GMT -5
Clearly, Alex Cora reads this message board. He’s obviously been influenced by the many aspiring major league managers and GMs amongst us. If you combine all of us, we're probably worth about 1.7 brain geniuses (about as useful a metric as dwar) I would say I'm contributing a -1.1 to the group.
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Post by jmei on Jun 18, 2021 19:31:52 GMT -5
Carlos Santana would be a pretty good fit with the Red Sox at 1B. Reasonable contract, takes lots of walks, switch-hits.
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Post by cheers on Jun 18, 2021 19:32:09 GMT -5
If you combine all of us, we're probably worth about 1.7 brain geniuses (about as useful a metric as dwar) I would say I'm contributing a -1.1 to the group. I was mostly letting eric drag us up. Don't wreck it.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 18, 2021 19:35:24 GMT -5
And for Pivetta's next trick, he's going to throw the mystical Gyro ball for a punch out.
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Post by greenmonster on Jun 18, 2021 19:48:06 GMT -5
Carlos Santana would be a pretty good fit with the Red Sox at 1B. Reasonable contract, takes lots of walks, switch-hits. Agree...35yo...looks like he is due $10.5M for 2022 which isn't crazy. I think he is passable defensively but nothing special. I wonder if Chavis and a lottery ticket would get it done
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Post by Canseco on Jun 18, 2021 20:03:00 GMT -5
That’s some poor base running from Arroyo.
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