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Post by bcsox on Jul 3, 2021 12:13:33 GMT -5
Question for the board, what is the last date the RS are allowed to be over the luxury tax threshold for calculation purposes? Essentially there is no way the RS are going to end the year where they may be right now, being 500K over the limit if that number is correct. It's not my money, but if they are 500k or a million or two over and dont think they can get back under, doesnt it make sense for them to be able to go out and acquire a player that has say up to 5-6-7 million left on their deal this year. Essentially if they are going to be slightly over why not spend a little more if you think it has a legit chance to impact your chances. Foe instance if you can get Scherzer and it means if you can take on the remainder of his contract you have to send lesser regarded prospects, doesnt that make sense?
If they are under as elsewehre reported it is within the 3-5 million dollar range, then unless the sending team is eating money, we should be able to rule out certain guys coming here, like a Nelson Cruz, even though he is not a roster fit, but guys in that salary range, again assuming the RS are staying under.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jul 3, 2021 12:40:01 GMT -5
"a legit chance that he doesn't even make the post season rotation" Maybe I eat crow later but the results so far is that he would he would be top 5 in Cy Young voting right now by any measure right. He should absolutely regress some in the 2nd half as very few can maintain what he has done this year but you really think their is a "legit chance" that he implodes to the point where he isn't more valuable than Pivetta? Nothing against Pivetta. Sure his track record and some peripheral numbers say he could fall on his face but doesn't all that decrease his price? Did you read the article? I cannot read it - i let my athletic subscription expire and haven’t renewed it yet. And yes; I think there is a legitimate chance he doesn’t make the post season rotation here. All that has to happen is him be who he’s always been. That’s it, nothing out of the ordinary has to take place. Prior to this season, the Kyle Gibson we all know is worse than the Pivetta we’ve seen in Boston. Maybe he’s had some great turn around at his age and is a vastly superior pitcher than he’s ever been in his career. I’m not saying it’s not possible; but I’m saying I’m not paying for that considering there’s a huge possible downside to him as well. Well it goes into his having a better off season health wise, has added a new pitch and made some adjustments. So he now has 6 pitches that he is throwing effectively from what looks like the same arm slot thus keeping batters off balance. We shall see.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 3, 2021 13:25:22 GMT -5
If we’re only 500k over the cap why don’t they just attach a low level prospect and get a team to take on Andriese’s salary?
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Post by incandenza on Jul 3, 2021 13:31:28 GMT -5
"Kyle Gibson is sure to regress" and "Kyle Gibson projects to be better than Pivetta" are not incompatible statements; even with some regression he would probably be a better option. Having said that, would the upgrade really be worth it?
Here's something I threw out in another thread as a way they might line up their postseason pitching:
This whole question of Gibson vs. Pivetta basically concerns who you'd rather have to throw 4-5 innings out of a 7-game series. You wouldn't (or at least shouldn't) bring in Gibson to make more than one start in a series. I think the difference projects to, at most, about a quarter of a run. How many prospects do you want to give up for that?
(This applies to most of the pitchers I've heard mentioned as potential trade targets. For it to be a really significant upgrade you'd want someone who'd improve over the innings you'd get from Sale/Eovaldi/Rodriguez/Whitlock/Houck. But who would that be who would be available? It's not a long list.)
One thing that makes Gibson a little more interesting is that they'd have him for 2022 as well for ~$9 million, and with Richards' option not looking like a great bargain at the moment that might appeal to Bloom.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jul 3, 2021 14:03:51 GMT -5
This is conceding that Gibson will regress an awful lot to be considered on par with Pivetta rather than the pitcher he has been all season. It is also assuming Sale comes back and is as good as he has been in the past, I hope he is but who knows. Which is just another reason to add a strong rotation arm.
And yes as I have said, Gibsons contract is a big part of his value.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jul 3, 2021 14:10:39 GMT -5
Ok, I will stop with my campaign for Gibson. Time will tell.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 3, 2021 14:17:07 GMT -5
This is conceding that Gibson will regress an awful lot to be considered on par with Pivetta rather than the pitcher he has been all season. It is also assuming Sale comes back and is as good as he has been in the past, I hope he is but who knows. Which is just another reason to add a strong rotation arm. And yes as I have said, Gibsons contract is a big part of his value. The projection systems have Gibson as about a half run better than Pivetta in ERA going forward. That's not gospel or anything, but it strikes me as pretty reasonable (though maybe a little pessimistic on both pitchers, which cancels out). A half run difference in ERA = .25 runs over 4-5 innings.
I do expect Sale to be good when he comes back, to be honest, at least by playoff time (he may have to shake off the rust). I don't assume he'll be available to pitch a lot of innings; I have him penciled in for 3-4 inning starts. But fortunately (or hopefully?) the Red Sox have the depth, in Whitlock and Houck, to cover for that.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jul 3, 2021 14:53:00 GMT -5
This is conceding that Gibson will regress an awful lot to be considered on par with Pivetta rather than the pitcher he has been all season. It is also assuming Sale comes back and is as good as he has been in the past, I hope he is but who knows. Which is just another reason to add a strong rotation arm. And yes as I have said, Gibsons contract is a big part of his value. The projection systems have Gibson as about a half run better than Pivetta in ERA going forward. That's not gospel or anything, but it strikes me as pretty reasonable (though maybe a little pessimistic on both pitchers, which cancels out). A half run difference in ERA = .25 runs over 4-5 innings.
I do expect Sale to be good when he comes back, to be honest, at least by playoff time (he may have to shake off the rust). I don't assume he'll be available to pitch a lot of innings; I have him penciled in for 3-4 inning starts. But fortunately (or hopefully?) the Red Sox have the depth, in Whitlock and Houck, to cover for that.
And what was he projected to do prior to the season? Not much right? Just saying. So his projections and his history should bring his trade value down right.
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Post by Jimmy on Jul 3, 2021 15:32:10 GMT -5
For all the people offering up Downs as sacrifice to bring in Kyle Gibson:
Is the incremental improvement of Gibson over Pivetta for the next 1.5 years > 6 years cheap control of Downs (Top 100 prospect), & $7M of spending room next year?
Especially as we try to build a sustainable contender.... I’m out on that... a lot of you are going to be very disappointed this trade deadline
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Post by wildsox on Jul 3, 2021 16:40:47 GMT -5
I’ve always dreamed of having Joey Votto on the Sox
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jul 3, 2021 17:02:57 GMT -5
Absolutely not to Kyle Gibson. My target would be German Marquez or Jon Gray.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jul 3, 2021 17:02:58 GMT -5
For all the people offering up Downs as sacrifice to bring in Kyle Gibson: Is the incremental improvement of Gibson over Pivetta for the next 1.5 years > 6 years cheap control of Downs (Top 100 prospect), & $7M of spending room next year? Especially as we try to build a sustainable contender.... I’m out on that... a lot of you are going to be very disappointed this trade deadline Their isn't "all the people" there is just me. I am the one who has brought it up and continues to stand by it. Only time will tell so we will wait until that day comes. Beyond that it is just an opinion and conjecture. But I have to ask you Jimmy, do you really think Downs is some big deal moving forward? To me he is going to be a league average 2nd basemen. Right now the Sox are just about tied for the best record in baseball, what is a WS run worth?
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Post by manfred on Jul 3, 2021 17:05:34 GMT -5
I’ve always dreamed of having Joey Votto on the Sox Oh God. Please no.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 3, 2021 17:07:24 GMT -5
If the Red sox do see downs as likely just a league average 2nd baseman than by all means trade him to upgrade the rotation. Considering he's a top 60 prospect in most if not all of the prospect rankings I'm expecting him to be above average at the position and potentially be a key piece of the core going forward.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 3, 2021 17:09:17 GMT -5
I’ve always dreamed of having Joey Votto on the Sox Oh God. Please no. Haha yea I dreamed of having Joey votto on the sox in his prime when he was one of thr best in the game. Right now though yea not so much on taking that contract or really even the player at this point.
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Post by tookme55 on Jul 3, 2021 17:24:25 GMT -5
Cot's Baseball Contracts in my opinion is the gold standard of player payroll and luxury tax payroll.
We're current under $4.5M so in theory, we can acquire a player with $12M salary with no money exchanging hands. Said player's payroll cost to Red Sox would be 1/3 (approximately) of $12M or $4M. See how that works?
Only problem with Cot's number is they have no value assigned to Santana even though he signed for $1.75M.
I'll shoot him an e-mail. He actually responds. Maybe it'll get corrected. I'm wondering if there's confusion as to how much he is owed due to injury before the season.
I'll check the signing date and the injury date. Maybe that'll explain the issue.
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Post by Jimmy on Jul 3, 2021 17:49:04 GMT -5
For all the people offering up Downs as sacrifice to bring in Kyle Gibson: Is the incremental improvement of Gibson over Pivetta for the next 1.5 years > 6 years cheap control of Downs (Top 100 prospect), & $7M of spending room next year? Especially as we try to build a sustainable contender.... I’m out on that... a lot of you are going to be very disappointed this trade deadline Their isn't "all the people" there is just me. I am the one who has brought it up and continues to stand by it. Only time will tell so we will wait until that day comes. Beyond that it is just an opinion and conjecture. But I have to ask you Jimmy, do you really think Downs is some big deal moving forward? To me he is going to be a league average 2nd basemen. Right now the Sox are just about tied for the best record in baseball, what is a WS run worth? Its a fair enough argument - to answer your question about Downs yes - there’s always the chance he flames out, but he’s a Top 100 prospect in baseball. What is a World Series run worth - tough to quantify - I think the better question is what are *many* World Series runs worth - that’s what the FO is aiming for with the sustainable contender model - trading prospect like Downs doesn’t fit into the plans. I understand the “go for it” line of thought - sometimes it works wonderfully. Other times it doesn’t and you leave your farm depleted (or more depleted than it was). Next time we’re in the basement we won’t have the Mookie card to play. The sustainable model requires some discipline - maybe not going “all in” this year and hoping that we can pull it off with what we’ve got - my hope is that the sustainable contender model over the next 15 years can net more championships than going all in a few times over that same period.
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Post by jmei on Jul 3, 2021 18:26:06 GMT -5
A cost-controlled league-average second baseman is hugely valuable (especially one who can play SS and perhaps 3B/OF). That’s not a player you give up lightly.
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Post by sportshubby on Jul 3, 2021 18:27:00 GMT -5
I don't think we will see major moves because the majority of the work that needs to happen is around opening 40 man spots for guys like Sale and Duran. Where last year we were selling off 1 roster spot for 2, this year we might be going the other way. So Potts and Rosario could be on there way right back out for a slight upgrade on the back end of the 40.* I just do not forsee much of anything being available that fits into the budget and doesn't force the Sox to take a step back in terms of long term development and perennial contention.
* not expecting or calling that specific combo, just used them as a pair that came in that could go out.
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Post by greenmonster on Jul 3, 2021 18:48:36 GMT -5
Watching tonights game and Mitch Moreland was in the lineup but appears to be a late change. No obvious injury. ......I had the crazy thought that the A's pulled him because they are talking trade with someone. Moreland wouldn't be a bad pickup for the Sox. Solid Defense and a left-handed bat to platoon with Dalbac
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 3, 2021 18:59:20 GMT -5
Watching tonights game and Mitch Moreland was in the lineup but appears to be a late change. No obvious injury. ......I had the crazy thought that the A's pulled him because they are talking trade with someone. Moreland wouldn't be a bad pickup for the Sox. Solid Defense and a left-handed bat to platoon with Dalbac The A's project to be at least a Wild Card. Why trade him?
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Post by greenmonster on Jul 3, 2021 19:33:32 GMT -5
Watching tonights game and Mitch Moreland was in the lineup but appears to be a late change. No obvious injury. ......I had the crazy thought that the A's pulled him because they are talking trade with someone. Moreland wouldn't be a bad pickup for the Sox. Solid Defense and a left-handed bat to platoon with Dalbac The A's project to be at least a Wild Card. Why trade him? Well, Billy Beane has never been afraid to make a move if he thought it made sense. I am not going to pretend to know what the A's need at this point but Olson is their starting first baseman. Trading a bench player to strengthen another or a piece or add some upside doesn't seem totally crazy.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 3, 2021 19:57:56 GMT -5
The A's project to be at least a Wild Card. Why trade him? Well, Billy Beane has never been afraid to make a move if he thought it made sense. I am not going to pretend to know what the A's need at this point but Olson is their starting first baseman. Trading a bench player to strengthen another or a piece or add some upside doesn't seem totally crazy. Doesn't Billy Beane work for John Henry now involved in his soccer venture? I don't think he's involved with Oakland anymore.
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Post by wOBA Fett on Jul 3, 2021 20:21:18 GMT -5
Jonathan Schoop would make a lot of sense. He's a right but hits well against RHP
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Post by gerry on Jul 4, 2021 2:04:52 GMT -5
Jonathan Schoop would make a lot of sense. He's a right but hits well against RHP I think he was discussed here and available to us in the off-season, but we went with Arroyo, Kiké, Marwin and Santana for a total of ~$10M. Not perfect but neither is Sir Jonathon, who I was rooting for. Arroyo and Kiké sure turned out well. If Sale, Houck, Seabold, Brasier, Valdez, Franchy, Duran, Wong, maybe Downs come up before October Bloom may not need to get anyone, but I hope he targets a pitcher. Love the talk about Maeda for the Andriese role.
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