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Trade deadline (2021): thoughts/strategy/predictions
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Post by greenmonster on Jul 4, 2021 7:27:38 GMT -5
Well, Billy Beane has never been afraid to make a move if he thought it made sense. I am not going to pretend to know what the A's need at this point but Olson is their starting first baseman. Trading a bench player to strengthen another or a piece or add some upside doesn't seem totally crazy. Doesn't Billy Beane work for John Henry now involved in his soccer venture? I don't think he's involved with Oakland anymore. Not 100% sure....seems like he might still be involved with the A's en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Billy_Beane
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 4, 2021 10:33:12 GMT -5
There's no such thing as a good deadline trade that makes an incremental improvement. The guy you targeted almost certainly fills a big hole on some other contender. That's why they're willing to overpay. And deadline trades are almost always overpays.
(Furthermore, deadline deals make much more sense for teams on the payoff cusp than for teams that are favorites to make the playoffs.)
My proposed trade of Perez for someone a bit better (which several people liked) is actually a prospect-for-prospect swap where you not only ease the upcoming Rule 5 traffic jam, you actually win the prospect swap instead of losing it as perceived by the other team. It would never work without that component. There's a small chance that we have a hole vs. RHP at 1B. But Franchy will be learning the position, and Dalbec since May 23 has hit .241 / .290 / .483 vs. RHP. with a .245 / .294 / .561 expected line. That seems to be .243 / .292 / .522 for real, and if he can sustain that, that's plenty good enough to make a Moreland type bench addition a luxury rather than a need.
We have a chance to be spare-parts sellers at the deadline. I think they'll play the long game and give Santana and Andriese more chances to make them worth more than MLB minimum.
Now, here's the history of deadline acquisitions of Sox teams that played at a 96+ win pace through the first 81 games. Players are listed in the order they were acquired.
The WAR figure is the total for players who were better than 0. I figure that guys who put up negative WAR (and there are many) were just replacing internal options who were just as bad. The only two guys this may not be true of were Javy Lopez and Eric Gagne. Year Wins 2H bWAR Additions 1971 48 37 n/a None 1978 56 43 0.5 Andy Hassler 1979 51 40 0.2 Ted Sizemore 1986 52 43 0.5 Dave Henderson, [Spike Owen] 1998 49 43 1.5 Mike Stanley, Orlando Merced, Greg Swindell, Pete Schourek, Chris Snopeck 2001 48 34 1.3 Ugueth Urbina, Willie Banks, Calvin Pickering 2002 50 43 2.0 Cliff Floyd, Bob Howry, Benny Agbayani 2006 50 36 0.5 Bryan Corey, Javy Lopez, Carlos Pena, Eric Hinske, Mike Burns 2007 50 46 0.2 Eric Gagne, Bobby Kielty, Royce Clayton 2008 49 46 0.6 [Jason Bay,] Paul Byrd, David Ross, Mark Kotsay 2009 49 46 2.4 Adam LaRoche > Casey Kotchman, Brian Anderson, Victor Martinez, Paul Byrd, Chris Woodward, Alex Gonzalez, Billy Wagner, Joey Gathright 2010 49 40 0.0 Jarrod Saltalamachia, Matt Fox 2013 48 49 1.2 Jake Peavy, Matt Thornton, Quintin Berry, John Macdonald 2018 54 54 0.8 Nathan Eovaldi, Ian Kinsler You'll note that through 2006, teams won an average of 10.6 fewer games in the second half, while since 2007 it's just 3.0.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 5, 2021 15:22:20 GMT -5
Eovaldi and Orlando Cabrera played key roles in world series titles but usually the deals are flops.
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Post by brian89 on Jul 5, 2021 16:49:31 GMT -5
I haven’t seen this floated anywhere and it’s probably because he’s on the IL but if the Red Sox want to keep platooning Bobby Dalbec to give him a chance to stick against lefties (.263/.286/.538) it feels like grabbing a lefty bat to platoon against righties makes a lot of sense.
Colin Moran of the Pirates isn’t the biggest bat, close to 29 years old but only costing 2.8m. Pirates aren’t going anywhere and he’s not a difference maker offensively so i can’t imagine the prospect capital cost being prohibitive despite only being in his 1st year of arbitration. Against righties this season Moran is splitting (.306/.360/.460). He’s kind of perfect for what the Red Sox need if he comes back from the IL and shows he’s healthy I hope they inquire about him.
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Post by longgone24 on Jul 5, 2021 17:09:20 GMT -5
I haven’t seen this floated anywhere and it’s probably because he’s on the IL but if the Red Sox want to keep platooning Bobby Dalbec to give him a chance to stick against lefties (.263/.286/.538) it feels like grabbing a lefty bat to platoon against righties makes a lot of sense. Colin Moran of the Pirates isn’t the biggest bat, close to 29 years old but only costing 2.8m. Pirates aren’t going anywhere and he’s not a difference maker offensively so i can’t imagine the prospect capital cost being prohibitive despite only being in his 1st year of arbitration. Against righties this season Moran is splitting (.306/.360/.460). He’s kind of perfect for what the Red Sox need if he comes back from the IL and shows he’s healthy I hope they inquire about him. I Always think of Colin Moran as the reason we picked Trey Ball at #7 in 2013. I remember there was a video of the draft room for the Sox brass and Moran went at #6 and everyone seemed to collectively shrug their shoulders and Cherington kind of mouthed Ball like it was a let down. It just seemed that everyone seemed to think he was going go to the Sox that year.
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Post by ghostofrussgibson on Jul 5, 2021 17:39:57 GMT -5
This could be blasphemy... but what if we became sellers at the deadline? As has been stated here, our roster is pretty well set and we have fairly decent players even at our weakest positions... 1st base, for example. Any trade at the deadline wouldn't likely improve us much since it wouldn't land us a great young stud... and... will result in an overpay for that incremental bump. So why not trade with the National League for prospects and bring our own prospects to the Sox for these next few months? It saves money, provides minor league depth, and allows our minor leaguers a chance to produce vs being blocked by some older middling player. Teams want to 'go for it' as they see a legit playoff run... and I get that. Few people saw a 100 win Sox team for 2021, but that's where it's headed. PLEASE, don't trade the farm for some minor bump. Instead, trade some of the roster for future studs and promote our own youth. Or sit tight. But definitely stay under the luxury tax. This is almost like playing with house money at this point. Love it!
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Post by jmanny24 on Jul 5, 2021 17:55:23 GMT -5
This could be blasphemy... but what if we became sellers at the deadline? As has been stated here, our roster is pretty well set and we have fairly decent players even at our weakest positions... 1st base, for example. Any trade at the deadline wouldn't likely improve us much since it wouldn't land us a great young stud... and... will result in an overpay for that incremental bump. So why not trade with the National League for prospects and bring our own prospects to the Sox for these next few months? It saves money, provides minor league depth, and allows our minor leaguers a chance to produce vs being blocked by some older middling player. Teams want to 'go for it' as they see a legit playoff run... and I get that. Few people saw a 100 win Sox team for 2021, but that's where it's headed. PLEASE, don't trade the farm for some minor bump. Instead, trade some of the roster for future studs and promote our own youth. Or sit tight. But definitely stay under the luxury tax. This is almost like playing with house money at this point. Love it! Which players would you like them to trade? And which ones would be brought up?
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jul 5, 2021 18:39:41 GMT -5
I haven’t seen this floated anywhere and it’s probably because he’s on the IL but if the Red Sox want to keep platooning Bobby Dalbec to give him a chance to stick against lefties (.263/.286/.538) it feels like grabbing a lefty bat to platoon against righties makes a lot of sense. Colin Moran of the Pirates isn’t the biggest bat, close to 29 years old but only costing 2.8m. Pirates aren’t going anywhere and he’s not a difference maker offensively so i can’t imagine the prospect capital cost being prohibitive despite only being in his 1st year of arbitration. Against righties this season Moran is splitting (.306/.360/.460). He’s kind of perfect for what the Red Sox need if he comes back from the IL and shows he’s healthy I hope they inquire about him. I Always think of Colin Moran as the reason we picked Trey Ball at #7 in 2013. I remember there was a video of the draft room for the Sox brass and Moran went at #6 and everyone seemed to collectively shrug their shoulders and Cherington kind of mouthed Ball like it was a let down. It just seemed that everyone seemed to think he was going go to the Sox that year. In 63 career pinch hit attempts he is .357 .429 .607 1.036. 3 for 6 in 2021. But... he just fractured his wrist [[ah, I see brian89 mentioned the IL]], and "It’s not clear whether Moran will be able to make it onto the field before July 30." www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/07/pirates-place-colin-moran-on-injured-list-with-hand-fracture.html
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Post by soxaddict on Jul 5, 2021 18:44:21 GMT -5
I could seriously see them staying within the organization. On the pitching side, Andriese, Rios and possibly Workman will be replaced with Sale, Houck and Valdez, Espinal, Ort or possibly LHP Gonsalves. For the lineup, Chavis, Wong and Santana will be replaced with Arroyo, Plawecki and I would assume Duran.
Rotation LH Chris Sale RH Nathan Eovaldi LH Eduardo Rodriguez RH Nick Pivetta LH Martin Pérez
Bullpen RH Matt Barnes RH Adam Ottavino LH Josh Taylor RH Garrett Whitlock LH Darwinzon Hernandez RH Hirokazu Sawamura RH Garrett Richards RH Tanner Houck LH Stephen Gonsalves, RH Phillips Valdez, RH Raynel Espinal, RH Kaleb Ort
Lineup C Christian Vazquez 1B Bobby Dalbec 2B Christian Arroyo 3B Rafael Devers SS Xander Bogaerts LF Alex Verdugo CF Kiké Hernández RF Hunter Renfroe DH JD Martinez
Bench C Kevin Plawecki UT Marwin Gonzalez OF Jaren Duran
If Franchy shows he's a viable platoon option at 1B, I could them them going with a 4 man bench.
I'll be shocked if Bloom deals any meaningful prospects at the deadline for rentals. Players on the rule 5 bubble will be available. I could see a deal for a guy like Jon Gray and have them take Richards in the deal to offset the salary and include a couple or more players like Chavis, Wilson, Potts, etc.
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Post by ghostofrussgibson on Jul 5, 2021 19:02:53 GMT -5
ghostofrussgibson Avatar about an hour ago ghostofrussgibson said: This could be blasphemy... but what if we became sellers at the deadline? As has been stated here, our roster is pretty well set and we have fairly decent players even at our weakest positions... 1st base, for example. Any trade at the deadline wouldn't likely improve us much since it wouldn't land us a great young stud... and... will result in an overpay for that incremental bump. So why not trade with the National League for prospects and bring our own prospects to the Sox for these next few months? It saves money, provides minor league depth, and allows our minor leaguers a chance to produce vs being blocked by some older middling player. Teams want to 'go for it' as they see a legit playoff run... and I get that. Few people saw a 100 win Sox team for 2021, but that's where it's headed. PLEASE, don't trade the farm for some minor bump. Instead, trade some of the roster for future studs and promote our own youth. Or sit tight. But definitely stay under the luxury tax. This is almost like playing with house money at this point. Love it!
Which players would you like them to trade? And which ones would be brought up?
I don't know. It would be based on the relative return a team would provide.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 5, 2021 19:13:27 GMT -5
ghostofrussgibson Avatar about an hour ago ghostofrussgibson said: This could be blasphemy... but what if we became sellers at the deadline? As has been stated here, our roster is pretty well set and we have fairly decent players even at our weakest positions... 1st base, for example. Any trade at the deadline wouldn't likely improve us much since it wouldn't land us a great young stud... and... will result in an overpay for that incremental bump. So why not trade with the National League for prospects and bring our own prospects to the Sox for these next few months? It saves money, provides minor league depth, and allows our minor leaguers a chance to produce vs being blocked by some older middling player. Teams want to 'go for it' as they see a legit playoff run... and I get that. Few people saw a 100 win Sox team for 2021, but that's where it's headed. PLEASE, don't trade the farm for some minor bump. Instead, trade some of the roster for future studs and promote our own youth. Or sit tight. But definitely stay under the luxury tax. This is almost like playing with house money at this point. Love it! Which players would you like them to trade? And which ones would be brought up? I don't know. Â It would be based on the relative return a team would provide. They're not going to worsen their major league roster in any trades. It wouldn't make sense. The only guys who can realistically help them after a promotion would be Houck, Duran, and Cordero? Are you suggesting dealing Kiké Hernandez or Christian Arroyo or Garrett Richard's or Martin Perez for minor leaguers? I suppose they could but I don't see them getting enough to make it worth their while? Honestly it doesn't make sense to deal Hernandez and his versatility and as others have pointed out he's their best defensive CF.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 5, 2021 19:14:43 GMT -5
I could seriously see them staying within the organization. On the pitching side, Andriese, Rios and possibly Workman will be replaced with Sale, Houck and Valdez, Espinal, Ort or possibly LHP Gonsalves. For the lineup, Chavis, Wong and Santana will be replaced with Arroyo, Plawecki and I would assume Duran. RotationLH Chris Sale RH Nathan Eovaldi LH Eduardo Rodriguez RH Nick Pivetta LH Martin Pérez BullpenRH Matt Barnes RH Adam Ottavino LH Josh Taylor RH Garrett Whitlock LH Darwinzon Hernandez RH Hirokazu Sawamura RH Garrett Richards RH Tanner Houck LH Stephen Gonsalves, RH Phillips Valdez, RH Raynel Espinal, RH Kaleb Ort LineupC Christian Vazquez 1B Bobby Dalbec 2B Christian Arroyo 3B Rafael Devers SS Xander Bogaerts LF Alex Verdugo CF Kiké Hernández RF Hunter Renfroe DH JD Martinez BenchC Kevin Plawecki UT Marwin Gonzalez OF Jaren Duran If Franchy shows he's a viable platoon option at 1B, I could them them going with a 4 man bench. I'll be shocked if Bloom deals any meaningful prospects at the deadline for rentals. Players on the rule 5 bubble will be available. I could see a deal for a guy like Jon Gray and have them take Richards in the deal to offset the salary and include a couple or more players like Chavis, Wilson, Potts, etc. Spot on except the addition of Cordero over the 14th pitcher makes more sense.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jul 5, 2021 19:15:05 GMT -5
I Always think of Colin Moran as the reason we picked Trey Ball at #7 in 2013. I remember there was a video of the draft room for the Sox brass and Moran went at #6 and everyone seemed to collectively shrug their shoulders and Cherington kind of mouthed Ball like it was a let down. It just seemed that everyone seemed to think he was going go to the Sox that year. He was someone that came to mind when I looked at the rosters of the teams that were obviously selling. I looked for SP and potential 1B that were making at least a few million. I was in the draft thread here when we picked Ball and I could tell you that a lot of people didn't want us to take Moran either and felt like the Marlins saved us from ourselves. I think that everyone was hoping for Clint Frazier and threw up their hands when he was taken, as if we were stuck with the 7th pick in a 5 player draft. That being said, Bryant is the only All-Star from those players and one of only 2 All-Stars thus far that entire 1st round.
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Post by soxaddict on Jul 5, 2021 19:47:28 GMT -5
Absolutely. Cordero would take the spot of the 14th pitcher. Then just add a couple of those relievers in September when the rosters expand to 28. It would sure make it a lot easier if Cordero could handle 1B and lengthen that lineup by mashing righties. IMO, the Sox are in very good shape without doing anything.
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Post by blizzards39 on Jul 5, 2021 22:40:40 GMT -5
Of coarse all of these predictions are assuming no major injuries the rest of the way. That is very unlikely. I can’t see any way the Sox are so far out of it they trade assets. More likely a Couple minor additions with low level prospects in return.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jul 5, 2021 23:14:07 GMT -5
I could seriously see them staying within the organization. On the pitching side, Andriese, Rios and possibly Workman will be replaced with Sale, Houck and Valdez, Espinal, Ort or possibly LHP Gonsalves. For the lineup, Chavis, Wong and Santana will be replaced with Arroyo, Plawecki and I would assume Duran. RotationLH Chris Sale RH Nathan Eovaldi LH Eduardo Rodriguez RH Nick Pivetta LH Martin Pérez BullpenRH Matt Barnes RH Adam Ottavino LH Josh Taylor RH Garrett Whitlock LH Darwinzon Hernandez RH Hirokazu Sawamura RH Garrett Richards RH Tanner Houck LH Stephen Gonsalves, RH Phillips Valdez, RH Raynel Espinal, RH Kaleb Ort LineupC Christian Vazquez 1B Bobby Dalbec 2B Christian Arroyo 3B Rafael Devers SS Xander Bogaerts LF Alex Verdugo CF Kiké Hernández RF Hunter Renfroe DH JD Martinez BenchC Kevin Plawecki UT Marwin Gonzalez OF Jaren Duran If Franchy shows he's a viable platoon option at 1B, I could them them going with a 4 man bench. I'll be shocked if Bloom deals any meaningful prospects at the deadline for rentals. Players on the rule 5 bubble will be available. I could see a deal for a guy like Jon Gray and have them take Richards in the deal to offset the salary and include a couple or more players like Chavis, Wilson, Potts, etc. Spot on except the addition of Cordero over the 14th pitcher makes more sense. I disagree, the 14th pitcher is necessary to spread innings and reduce the amount of over usage in the bullpen. I think Bloom and company keep it the rest of the season!
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Post by soxaddict on Jul 6, 2021 0:03:48 GMT -5
Assuming Houck is called up, and Richards is bumped to the bullpen when Sale returns, they've replaced Andriese, Rios and Workman with two pitchers that can throw multiple innings. IMO, a LH 1B to platoon with Dalbec is a necessity, whether it be Franchy or one that is dealt for. If they stick with the 14th pitcher, Marwin is the LH option at 1B.
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rjp313jr
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 6, 2021 5:32:58 GMT -5
Spot on except the addition of Cordero over the 14th pitcher makes more sense. I disagree, the 14th pitcher is necessary to spread innings and reduce the amount of over usage in the bullpen. I think Bloom and company keep it the rest of the season! Don’t forget in the playoffs you often get an expanded bench for a couple reasons. 1. You don’t need a 5th starter so that spot goes to the bullpen (even if it’s the same person playing the role) 2. It’s now common for starters to do their “bullpen” session between starts in a game, which also provides you more innings. So in a 5 game series Eovaldi may pitch game 2 then be available in games 4 and/or 5 out of the bullpen.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 6, 2021 7:22:41 GMT -5
There was a lot of talk this past off-season about signing Brad Hand. His salary is about the same as Garrett Richards. Important, if we try to stay under luxury tax.
Who could we add to entice Washington to do that. Downs is way too much for a rental. What controlled arm could do it?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 6, 2021 16:05:31 GMT -5
There was a lot of talk this past off-season about signing Brad Hand. His salary is about the same as Garrett Richards. Important, if we try to stay under luxury tax. Who could we add to entice Washington to do that. Downs is way too much for a rental. What controlled arm could do it? Considering they're in second place in their division, 4 games back, it doesn't look like they're going to sell (although the NL West teams are going to run away with the 2 wild cards, so it wouldn't take much for the Nats to fall out of it). But as you allude to, I can't see them taking on Hand's salary, and to get salary relief would need a better prospect. Not sure I see a fit there even if Washington does fall out.
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Post by ghostofrussgibson on Jul 6, 2021 17:14:32 GMT -5
ghostofrussgibson Avatar about an hour ago ghostofrussgibson said: This could be blasphemy... but what if we became sellers at the deadline? As has been stated here, our roster is pretty well set and we have fairly decent players even at our weakest positions... 1st base, for example. Any trade at the deadline wouldn't likely improve us much since it wouldn't land us a great young stud... and... will result in an overpay for that incremental bump. So why not trade with the National League for prospects and bring our own prospects to the Sox for these next few months? It saves money, provides minor league depth, and allows our minor leaguers a chance to produce vs being blocked by some older middling player. Teams want to 'go for it' as they see a legit playoff run... and I get that. Few people saw a 100 win Sox team for 2021, but that's where it's headed. PLEASE, don't trade the farm for some minor bump. Instead, trade some of the roster for future studs and promote our own youth. Or sit tight. But definitely stay under the luxury tax. This is almost like playing with house money at this point. Love it! Which players would you like them to trade? And which ones would be brought up? I don't know. Â It would be based on the relative return a team would provide. They're not going to worsen their major league roster in any trades. It wouldn't make sense. The only guys who can realistically help them after a promotion would be Houck, Duran, and Cordero? Are you suggesting dealing Kiké Hernandez or Christian Arroyo or Garrett Richard's or Martin Perez for minor leaguers? I suppose they could but I don't see them getting enough to make it worth their while? Honestly it doesn't make sense to deal Hernandez and his versatility and as others have pointed out he's their best defensive CF.
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Post by jimgosger on Jul 6, 2021 17:20:38 GMT -5
What about dealing Ryan Brasier? You could do it for a PTBNL with the player named dependent upon the amount of innings that he pitches for the new team.
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Post by ghostofrussgibson on Jul 6, 2021 17:35:09 GMT -5
ghostofrussgibson Avatar about an hour ago ghostofrussgibson said: This could be blasphemy... but what if we became sellers at the deadline? As has been stated here, our roster is pretty well set and we have fairly decent players even at our weakest positions... 1st base, for example. Any trade at the deadline wouldn't likely improve us much since it wouldn't land us a great young stud... and... will result in an overpay for that incremental bump. So why not trade with the National League for prospects and bring our own prospects to the Sox for these next few months? It saves money, provides minor league depth, and allows our minor leaguers a chance to produce vs being blocked by some older middling player. Teams want to 'go for it' as they see a legit playoff run... and I get that. Few people saw a 100 win Sox team for 2021, but that's where it's headed. PLEASE, don't trade the farm for some minor bump. Instead, trade some of the roster for future studs and promote our own youth. Or sit tight. But definitely stay under the luxury tax. This is almost like playing with house money at this point. Love it! Which players would you like them to trade? And which ones would be brought up? I don't know. Â It would be based on the relative return a team would provide. They're not going to worsen their major league roster in any trades. It wouldn't make sense. The only guys who can realistically help them after a promotion would be Houck, Duran, and Cordero? Are you suggesting dealing Kiké Hernandez or Christian Arroyo or Garrett Richard's or Martin Perez for minor leaguers? I suppose they could but I don't see them getting enough to make it worth their while? Honestly it doesn't make sense to deal Hernandez and his versatility and as others have pointed out he's their best defensive CF. ----- (Folks, sorry... but I don't know the process for properly replying to a post. Could someone please show me? Thanks.) I think the word "worsen" is a relative term, certainly long term and, to a lesser degree, short term. Let me take a stab at explaining. Hypothetically, if Boston feels it has a decent current starter as well as an in-house substitute who is pretty close to what they now have - in other words, the dropoff wouldn't have significant impact on 2021... but another team has crap at that same position and views Boston's decent current starter as... #1 - available in trade and #2 - enough of an upgrade to OVER PAY for that upgrade, I'd hope Boston would take a hard look at both the short and longer term aspects of pulling the trigger, particularly if the deal is with a National League club. Two side benefits: It would clear a space on the 40-man roster as well as lowering the short and longer term payroll just a bit. I'm not suggesting Boston dump its stars. I am suggesting that some players 'could' become targets for desperate teams and that Boston has a responsibility to listen. I think most of us agree that Boston has few glaring holes and has outperformed all expectations by a mile, so far. It'll be fun to see things play out... also fun to see the draft.
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Post by unitspin on Jul 6, 2021 17:58:03 GMT -5
I honestly do not see anything of value we can offer to upgrade our roster that bloom would be willing to let go. We need SP and that usually comes at a high price this time of yr especially since so many teams are still in the hunt.
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Post by carl4sox on Jul 6, 2021 20:04:35 GMT -5
I'd say -- stick it out with what you have. Trade some on the 40- man for prospects not yet ready for the Rule 5 draft, where there is a squeeze. Bring upsome WooSox.
They've been a remarkable club this year. Fill from within; don't go over the luxury tax.
Trade/cut Andriese, maybe Workman, call up Ort, Houk. Maybe Valdez as a later callup.
Trade Chavez.
Convince Danny to go to AAA. If not, cut him.
Bring up Duran, Frenchy. If French can actually be an Lh-bat 1st baseman, all the better.
Marwyn? Maybe not so bad as a superior fill-in.
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