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7/22-7/25 Red Sox vs. Yankees Thread
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 26, 2021 12:09:04 GMT -5
Not sure why Torres didn't make the play to 3rd to get Kiké on Plawecki's grounder. Looked like he could have gotten him. Obviously Kiké making it to 3rd was crucial as it turned out. Torres is just a dumb player. And why did Boone have him playing back with the tying run at 3rd?
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Post by fenwaydouble on Jul 26, 2021 12:22:54 GMT -5
It is a little extra fun to beat the MFY both on the field and in the front office. Man don't these MFY look like they are going to be bad for a while with their roster and bad contracts. Imagine paying 68 million for Stanton and Cole for their 30's. That's a lot of wasted money, I am sure they will be pushing hard for higher caps. I don't think the Cole contract is bad. He could be a great pitcher for the life of that contract; aces tend to age well when they don't get hurt - look at Verlander, Greinke, Scherzer, etc. The Stanton contract looks awful; he's given them 6.0 fWAR since the start of 2018, and these are supposed to be the surplus value years of the contract. LeMahieu is 33, has a career 100 wRC+, and is signed through age 38. And Judge is either going to be hugely expensive or they're going to have a huge hole to fill. Torres is their only regular under 28 years old, and he's been kind of disappointing.
Incidentally, seems like Cashman did pull another rabbit out of the hat with Rougned Odor. Career 87 wRC+; 107 with the Yankees.
There's just way more risk than upside in the Cole deal. It's not bad right now, but he could get hurt or fall off a cliff at any time. I'm sure it will be worth it to New York if he leads them to a ring in the next few years, but suddenly their current window doesn't look as open as it did when he signed.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 26, 2021 12:33:13 GMT -5
I don't think the Cole contract is bad. He could be a great pitcher for the life of that contract; aces tend to age well when they don't get hurt - look at Verlander, Greinke, Scherzer, etc. The Stanton contract looks awful; he's given them 6.0 fWAR since the start of 2018, and these are supposed to be the surplus value years of the contract. LeMahieu is 33, has a career 100 wRC+, and is signed through age 38. And Judge is either going to be hugely expensive or they're going to have a huge hole to fill. Torres is their only regular under 28 years old, and he's been kind of disappointing.
Incidentally, seems like Cashman did pull another rabbit out of the hat with Rougned Odor. Career 87 wRC+; 107 with the Yankees.
There's just way more risk than upside in the Cole deal. It's not bad right now, but he could get hurt or fall off a cliff at any time. I'm sure it will be worth it to New York if he leads them to a ring in the next few years, but suddenly their current window doesn't look as open as it did when he signed.
Yeah, that's a good point. I can see the Yankees sort of bouncing along as like a 90-win team for the next few seasons, and then maybe re-loading by 2025 or so (seems like their prospect depth skews to the lower minors), but by then Cole is in his mid-30s...
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 26, 2021 12:33:26 GMT -5
NY is in a very difficult position. Looking at the Cot's spreadsheet for 2022, they already have at least $150 million committed in fixed contracts and likely arbitration awards. While I assumed an average figure of 120% from the previous arb salary, that is probably quite low for someone like German. And I left Frazier and a few others out who have not brought enough to merit inclusion, players who may be gone next year. It's probably closer to $160 million and they have to replace Kluber who'll be a free agent. Given the number of holes they have to fill and how unproductive the current lineup is against their AL East competition, it's going to be very hard to compete. Voit is barely above replacement this season, Stanton's contract is a serious drag. Gardner is a placeholder at this point - they need serious outfield help. And so on. The assets include Cole as well as their arb eligible starters and the bullpen, but those are only useful if you can compete, and they've gotten crushed by the Sox and the Rays this year. They need the sort of rebuild that Bloom undertook in stealth mode during last year's pandemic-shortened season. That does not look to be in the cards for them. Tough time in the Bronx, and a fanbase that has a seriously overblown sense of entitlement.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 26, 2021 12:40:57 GMT -5
NY is in a very difficult position. Looking at the Cot's spreadsheet for 2022, they already have at least $150 million committed in fixed contracts and likely arbitration awards. While I assumed an average figure of 120% from the previous arb salary, that is probably quite low for someone like German. And I left Frazier and a few others out who have not brought enough to merit inclusion, players who may be gone next year. It's probably closer to $160 million and they have to replace Kluber who'll be a free agent. Given the number of holes they have to fill and how unproductive the current lineup is against their AL East competition, it's going to be very hard to compete. Voit is barely above replacement this season, Stanton's contract is a serious drag. Gardner is a placeholder at this point - they need serious outfield help. And so on. The assets include Cole as well as their arb eligible starters and the bullpen, but those are only useful if you can compete, and they've gotten crushed by the Sox and the Rays this year. They need the sort of rebuild that Bloom undertook in stealth mode during last year's pandemic-shortened season. That does not look to be in the cards for them. Tough time in the Bronx, and a fanbase that has a seriously overblown sense of entitlement. Excellent breakdown of the situation the Yankees are looking at for 2022. Too bad, so sad! They also have an owner who seemingly doesn't want to spend crazy sums of money so it's not like the old days when George would just throw money at the holes. I'll never count them out but it's a tough hill to climb to get back into a WS caliber team in the near future for them.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jul 26, 2021 12:53:00 GMT -5
I look forward to this winter's glitzy announcement in a fancy Toilet ballroom that the MFYs have signed Judge to a massive extension. The Cash Man and Hal Stein will gush about the importance of keeping a player of Judge's ability and character. Then Jon Sterling will call Judge to the podium with a big "Here Comes the Judge!" Judge will speak about how he can't imagine playing for anyone other than the MFYs, blah, blah, blah.
That contract, likely more than $30M/year, will take him through his 30s. He, Stanton and Cole will take up nearly $100M in AAV space deep into their decline years.
Judge hasn't played more than 112 games since 2017. Last year, he played 28/60. I truly can't wait for them to make this mistake.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 26, 2021 13:07:45 GMT -5
It's the rock and the hard spot. Cashman will take the fall no mater what happens - trade Judge for future assets as the team rebuilds or keep him on a team that has a payroll squeeze. Bloom did some real magic last year, but he understood what had to happen and how to do it, and the fanbase, while unhappy, took the apologies about performance at face value. I don't know that that's possible for Yankee fans.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 26, 2021 13:20:04 GMT -5
Please let them sign Judge and Sanchez to longgggg contracts.
They have just about no one worth building around. Everyone both under and over 30 is declining, except for possibly Judge, but he's also the kind of guy who won't age well with his body type and lack of hit tool. I see a Stanton like future for him, which makes it even dumber that they traded for Stanton. How long before Sanchez, Judge and Stanton all have to play DH so none of them get hurt?
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 26, 2021 13:22:09 GMT -5
Bloom also had the benefit of coming in with a fresh slate and the Sox traded Betts during the peak of the pandemic when people’s attention was elsewhere. He also clearly had a mandate from ownership and the Red Sox had just recently won the World Series, so a rebuild is kind of logical when you can’t run it back and there are some expiring contracts coming up.
None of the above apply to Cashman. They really need to take their medicine and go for a full tear down but I think they’re too proud to do that.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 26, 2021 13:27:17 GMT -5
Now would have been the perfect time for the Mets to go on a run.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jul 26, 2021 14:24:32 GMT -5
It is a little extra fun to beat the MFY both on the field and in the front office. Man don't these MFY look like they are going to be bad for a while with their roster and bad contracts. Imagine paying 68 million for Stanton and Cole for their 30's. That's a lot of wasted money, I am sure they will be pushing hard for higher caps. I don't think the Cole contract is bad. He could be a great pitcher for the life of that contract; aces tend to age well when they don't get hurt - look at Verlander, Greinke, Scherzer, etc. The Stanton contract looks awful; he's given them 6.0 fWAR since the start of 2018, and these are supposed to be the surplus value years of the contract. LeMahieu is 33, has a career 100 wRC+, and is signed through age 38. And Judge is either going to be hugely expensive or they're going to have a huge hole to fill. Torres is their only regular under 28 years old, and he's been kind of disappointing.
Incidentally, seems like Cashman did pull another rabbit out of the hat with Rougned Odor. Career 87 wRC+; 107 with the Yankees.
No the Cole contract isn't bad right now but it isn't exactly good IMO and I like the chances that it will be bad for the back end as usual. They also couldn't have seen the predicament they are in now but it really doesn't make sense to have the highest paid pitcher in baseball on a non playoff team. My thought above was really about the combination adding up to 68 and how it effects the team. I was going to include DJ also but left him out of it, he will obviously be a drain on that payroll.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 26, 2021 14:37:17 GMT -5
Before this series, the Yankees had played just two games all year where a team had a 94%+ chance of winning in the 8th or 9th inning, and lost. The Sox had played just one. All three were losses, and you probably know what they are (Barnes / Ohtani, Chapman GS, Green / Altuve).
That this four-game series should have three such games is just bonkers. I've been tracking these WP-measured comebacks for years now and I'm pretty sure I've never seen anything like this.
Sox .053 and win. Yankees .055 and win. Sox .027 and win.
Another fun fact: We've had 9 comebacks from < 25% from the 7th onward, and the top 8 are all against the AL East: Yankees 3, Jays 2, Rays 2, O's 1. The 9th is against the Tigers. Of the 5 losses, only the Yankees game Saturday is against the AL East ... so they are 7-1 against the three division rivals in late-inning comebacks.
EV's and xBA's of the hits in the weekend comebacks:
96.6, .520 Florial 2B
70.3, .330 Stanton 2B 97.2, .220 Odor single. 33 degree launch angle means it's usually an out, and it would have been one in Yankee Stadium, among other parks.
72.8, .220 Torres single
98.3, .360 Verdugo 2B
95.7, .260 Renfroe 2B 67.9, .930 Vazquez 1B. I'm convinced that CV, Bogaerts, and others have a weak-hit skill. Unclear whether some pitchers are prone to giving them up (or preventing them). 105.8, .420, Franchy single 109.1, .910 Kiké 2B
German had allowed 1.46 expected hits when Dugie broke up the no-no. Kiké had a .26 and a .25, two best chances ignoring placement.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 26, 2021 14:46:05 GMT -5
Before this series, the Yankees had played just two games all year where a team had a 94%+ chance of winning in the 8th or 9th inning, and lost. The Sox had played just one. All three were losses, and you probably know what they are (Barnes / Ohtani, Chapman GS, Green / Altuve).
That this four-game series should have three such games is just bonkers. I've been tracking these WP-measured comebacks for years now and I'm pretty sure I've never seen anything like this.
Sox .053 and win. Yankees .055 and win. Sox .027 and win.
Yes, the only run of the mill victory in the series was the one where we mounted a come from behind win against their ace after our starter left in the 2nd inning due to illness! (28% was the lowest the WE got in that one, but what would it have been taking the pitching situation into account?)
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 26, 2021 14:48:46 GMT -5
Before this series, the Yankees had played just two games all year where a team had a 94%+ chance of winning in the 8th or 9th inning, and lost. The Sox had played just one. All three were losses, and you probably know what they are (Barnes / Ohtani, Chapman GS, Green / Altuve).
That this four-game series should have three such games is just bonkers. I've been tracking these WP-measured comebacks for years now and I'm pretty sure I've never seen anything like this.
Sox .053 and win. Yankees .055 and win. Sox .027 and win.
Yes, the only run of the mill victory in the series was the one where we mounted a come from behind win against their ace after our starter left in the 2nd inning due to illness! (28% was the lowest the WE got in that one, but what would it have been taking the pitching situation into account?) What Valdez did was certainly not expected in that game.
Maybe this series was a different version of the ARod/Varitek game. Too bad they won't be facing each other in the playoffs...
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jul 26, 2021 14:53:14 GMT -5
Bloom also had the benefit of coming in with a fresh slate and the Sox traded Betts during the peak of the pandemic when people’s attention was elsewhere. He also clearly had a mandate from ownership and the Red Sox had just recently won the World Series, so a rebuild is kind of logical when you can’t run it back and there are some expiring contracts coming up. None of the above apply to Cashman. They really need to take their medicine and go for a full tear down but I think they’re too proud to do that. This is a subjective observation, so I can't prove it. But I think the RS benefit from having done a better job than the MFYs the past 20-plus years of selling their fan base on the need to take an unsentimental, business-like approach to player decisions. Theo Epstein came across as a highly-decent, thoughtful young guy with a capacity for compassion. This was a fair assessment of him, in my view. But as a BB exec and businessman, he was cold and unsentimental. He made decisions based on data, not his heart. The organization has not been perfect in maintaining this approach; they've given out plenty of bad contracts. But they've done a lot better job than the MFYs. This has resulted in winning. That winning has conditioned the fan base to the necessity of roster turnover and letting stars walk. I don't think the MFYs have the stones to trade Judge for young pieces who could help them transition to a more functional roster. The RS did that with Mookie and we are enjoying a highly entertaining 2021 season as a result. Oh yeah, in terms of conditioning the fan base to turnover as a means to winning, it doesn't hurt that the RS play in the same market as the six-time SB Champion cold-as-ice New England Patriots.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,966
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Post by jimoh on Jul 26, 2021 15:22:09 GMT -5
Bloom also had the benefit of coming in with a fresh slate and the Sox traded Betts during the peak of the pandemic when people’s attention was elsewhere. He also clearly had a mandate from ownership and the Red Sox had just recently won the World Series, so a rebuild is kind of logical when you can’t run it back and there are some expiring contracts coming up. None of the above apply to Cashman. They really need to take their medicine and go for a full tear down but I think they’re too proud to do that. This is a subjective observation, so I can't prove it. But I think the RS benefit from having done a better job than the MFYs the past 20-plus years of selling their fan base on the need to take an unsentimental, business-like approach to player decisions. Theo Epstein came across as a highly-decent, thoughtful young guy with a capacity for compassion. This was a fair assessment of him, in my view. But as a BB exec and businessman, he was cold and unsentimental. He made decisions based on data, not his heart. The organization has not been perfect in maintaining this approach; they've given out plenty of bad contracts. But they've done a lot better job than the MFYs. This has resulted in winning. That winning has conditioned the fan base to the necessity of roster turnover and letting stars walk. I don't think the MFYs have the stones to trade Judge for young pieces who could help them transition to a more functional roster. The RS did that with Mookie and we are enjoying a highly entertaining 2021 season as a result. Oh yeah, in terms of conditioning the fan base to turnover as a means to winning, it doesn't hurt that the RS play in the same market as the six-time SB Champion cold-as-ice New England Patriots. Does the success of Belichick help with that?
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jul 26, 2021 16:03:37 GMT -5
This is a subjective observation, so I can't prove it. But I think the RS benefit from having done a better job than the MFYs the past 20-plus years of selling their fan base on the need to take an unsentimental, business-like approach to player decisions. Theo Epstein came across as a highly-decent, thoughtful young guy with a capacity for compassion. This was a fair assessment of him, in my view. But as a BB exec and businessman, he was cold and unsentimental. He made decisions based on data, not his heart. The organization has not been perfect in maintaining this approach; they've given out plenty of bad contracts. But they've done a lot better job than the MFYs. This has resulted in winning. That winning has conditioned the fan base to the necessity of roster turnover and letting stars walk. I don't think the MFYs have the stones to trade Judge for young pieces who could help them transition to a more functional roster. The RS did that with Mookie and we are enjoying a highly entertaining 2021 season as a result. Oh yeah, in terms of conditioning the fan base to turnover as a means to winning, it doesn't hurt that the RS play in the same market as the six-time SB Champion cold-as-ice New England Patriots. Does the success of Belichick help with that? Like I said, this is all subjective and just my opinion. But I think it can't hurt that the Boston fan base has gotten to enjoy the most successful FB team this century and the most successful BB team this century and both operate in a business-like way. I really think it's led to a more sophisticated group of fans. I work in NYC and when I suggest to MFY fans that they should trade Judge, rather than give him stupid money and years, I see their discomfort. I spent years telling these same people it was time for the NYG to move on from Eli Manning. They had too much of an emotional attachment to him to agree with me, even as the team sucked year after year. Ditto for their reaction to my jabs from about 2011 on about how it was time for the MFY to move on from Captain Jetes. We are a smarter, more sophisticated group of fans than the riffraff who root for the MFYs. We are the cool kids, the beautiful people, the elite.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 26, 2021 16:36:36 GMT -5
Belichick runs the Patriots as the purest or meritocracies. The number of undrafted free agents he's turned into regulars speaks to that. I do think the fans in New England have come to see the value of making the hard decisions about when to let players go, when to trade them, when to replace them and why. That's never easy, but developing winning traditions - and the Pats and Sox have done that - certainly helps.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 26, 2021 17:47:04 GMT -5
I believe the Yankees also rely more heavily on their high-end luxury boxes than the Red Sox do. Someone please correct me if I’m wrong on that. So maybe financially they’re less able to just punt on a season and accept being really bad for a couple years. They’d rather be .500 and still be decent enough to get fans maybe.
I think that’s the type of thinking that got them here though, right? I don’t quite understand how they think they’ll rebuild with that approach.
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Post by jmei on Jul 26, 2021 21:22:40 GMT -5
I believe the Yankees also rely more heavily on their high-end luxury boxes than the Red Sox do. Someone please correct me if I’m wrong on that. So maybe financially they’re less able to just punt on a season and accept being really bad for a couple years. They’d rather be .500 and still be decent enough to get fans maybe. I think that’s the type of thinking that got them here though, right? I don’t quite understand how they think they’ll rebuild with that approach. Eh, most of those luxury boxes are bought by corporate/finance/high net worth types that will renew whether or not the team is winning.
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