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Post by Guidas on Jul 13, 2022 11:44:12 GMT -5
Garrett Cooper is my ideal add at 1st. Righty with basically no splits, controlled and cheap for another year. No real leverage splits, suggests he'll be good in the playoffs and may not have the same velo issues Dalbec has. Bad OF defender but can put him there in a pinch. Metrics are all over the place on his defense so not sure there. Might command more than the Sox want to pay, or the Marlins might want to keep him, but to me he's the type of guy worth moving on from Dalbec for, moreso than a pure rental. Garrett Cooper's not a FA until after 2024 I think. That would be mighty expensive given his current numbers. They'd prob want Casas (or Yorke if they believe in him) plus more. He's also 31, so this may be a career year for him. Somewhat slow decline after that, probably, but this move might be more tenable if they had Xander/Eovaldi/JDM/Vaz for one more year. This is the last year for the core +Devers. Shame the pen is so awful. Probably has cost them 6-7 games in the standings based on late-inning meltdowns since the beginning of the season right up to last night.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jul 13, 2022 11:48:30 GMT -5
Garrett Cooper's not a FA until after 2024 I think. That would be mighty expensive given his current numbers. They'd prob want Casas (or Yorke if they believe in him) plus more. I think next year is his last year of arbitration, though he is making 2.5M this year so it would still be really cheap. He was my first choice to acquire depending on the cost, but I won't be upset with Bell either.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jul 13, 2022 11:49:51 GMT -5
Cooper is also much more OBP based OPS than SLG based OPS which is why I value him more.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 13, 2022 12:00:10 GMT -5
Ring my Bell.
Professional hitter, switch hitter, pure rental. Having a big year, like Schwarber last year.
.868 OPS vs. LHP, .882 vs. RHP.
Groome or Jiminez, straight up.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 13, 2022 12:04:37 GMT -5
Garrett Cooper is my ideal add at 1st. Righty with basically no splits, controlled and cheap for another year. No real leverage splits, suggests he'll be good in the playoffs and may not have the same velo issues Dalbec has. Bad OF defender but can put him there in a pinch. Metrics are all over the place on his defense so not sure there. Might command more than the Sox want to pay, or the Marlins might want to keep him, but to me he's the type of guy worth moving on from Dalbec for, moreso than a pure rental. Garrett Cooper's not a FA until after 2024 I think. That would be mighty expensive given his current numbers. They'd prob want Casas (or Yorke if they believe in him) plus more. He's also 31, so this may be a career year for him. Somewhat slow decline after that, probably, but this move might be more tenable if they had Xander/Eovaldi/JDM/Vaz for one more year. This is the last year for the core +Devers. Shame the pen is so awful. Probably has cost them 6-7 games in the standings based on late-inning meltdowns since the beginning of the season right up to last night. Casas or Yorke and then some for a 31-year-old whose current 1.7 fWAR is his career high? That would be totally bananas.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 13, 2022 12:09:37 GMT -5
Garrett Cooper is my ideal add at 1st. Righty with basically no splits, controlled and cheap for another year. No real leverage splits, suggests he'll be good in the playoffs and may not have the same velo issues Dalbec has. Bad OF defender but can put him there in a pinch. Metrics are all over the place on his defense so not sure there. Might command more than the Sox want to pay, or the Marlins might want to keep him, but to me he's the type of guy worth moving on from Dalbec for, moreso than a pure rental. Garrett Cooper's not a FA until after 2024 I think. That would be mighty expensive given his current numbers. They'd prob want Casas (or Yorke if they believe in him) plus more. He's also 31, so this may be a career year for him. Somewhat slow decline after that, probably, but this move might be more tenable if they had Xander/Eovaldi/JDM/Vaz for one more year. This is the last year for the core +Devers. Shame the pen is so awful. Probably has cost them 6-7 games in the standings based on late-inning meltdowns since the beginning of the season right up to last night. FA in 2024, so it's a season and a half. Like I said his cost might be high, if it's Casas or Yorke I'd obviously pass. I don't think it would be quite that high. Given where the Marlins are Dalbec and one of the Sox AA/AAA pitchers plus something like a Low A flyer feels more reasonable to me. I disagree with your implication that the team is going to be bad next year (they're not going to let those guys go without replacing them), and I think Cooper is a good bridge to Casas. I also think the issues with the pen have been overstated. Obviously it hasn't been great, but I don't think it's been as bad as it feels either. They're 12th in MLB in WPA (+1.62), 3 wins behind the leader. They're T-3rd in MLB in meltdowns which is why it feels worse than it is I think, and I'd be happy for them to add another good reliever at the deadline, but agree with what other posters have said that they have a lot of help coming internally too.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 13, 2022 12:19:59 GMT -5
Ring my Bell. Professional hitter, switch hitter, pure rental. Having a big year, like Schwarber last year. .868 OPS vs. LHP, .882 vs. RHP. Groome or Jiminez, straight up. The fact that Bloom did so much better than Cashman at the trade deadline last year actually has me sort of confused about what to expect now. I.e.:
-The Yankees got Rizzo for Alcantara and Vizcaino - 50 and 45 FV prospects, respectively, per fangraphs. -The Red Sox got Schwarber for Aldo Ramirez, a 40+.
The acquired players were comparable. Both were rentals. Granted, Schwarber was injured when the trade was made. But the difference in price was enormous.
Bell is pretty comparable to those two as well. "Groome or Jimenez, straight up" for Bell is slightly weaker than the offer that got them Schwarber, and given that Bell isn't injured I don't think there's much of a chance that gets it done.
But will he cost as much as Rizzo did last year? That would be, like, Bello + Walter. Or Yorke + Mata. Something like that. If Bell's price goes that high I'd run away from it so fast I'd leave a little puff of vapor like a cartoon character.
Add it all up and I really think things are going to play out just like last season - everyone's going to say Bloom HAS to get Bell, and then he's going to balk at the cost and do something unexpected.
And hopefully, in a further carbon copy of last season, Dalbec will proceed to wildly outperform Bell the rest of the way.
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Post by greenmonster on Jul 13, 2022 12:22:57 GMT -5
Garrett Cooper's not a FA until after 2024 I think. That would be mighty expensive given his current numbers. They'd prob want Casas (or Yorke if they believe in him) plus more. He's also 31, so this may be a career year for him. Somewhat slow decline after that, probably, but this move might be more tenable if they had Xander/Eovaldi/JDM/Vaz for one more year. This is the last year for the core +Devers. Shame the pen is so awful. Probably has cost them 6-7 games in the standings based on late-inning meltdowns since the beginning of the season right up to last night. Casas or Yorke and then some for a 31-year-old whose current 1.7 fWAR is his career high? That would be totally bananas. FWIW, Dalbac & Groome for Cooper is an accepted trade on the Trade Simulator
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Post by philip on Jul 13, 2022 12:23:54 GMT -5
Would it be wrong for us to make the deal for bell on our own and tell bloom about it later. He is asleep at the wheel I fear.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 13, 2022 12:26:04 GMT -5
Casas or Yorke and then some for a 31-year-old whose current 1.7 fWAR is his career high? That would be totally bananas. FWIW, Dalbac & Groome for Cooper is an accepted trade on the Trade Simulator That sounds about right to me.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jul 13, 2022 12:28:42 GMT -5
Sports Hub is talking about the article from this morning. It really seems like Henry is laying the ground work and getting ahead of Xander JD Nate and Devers leaving. Odd timing.
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nomar
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Posts: 10,825
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Post by nomar on Jul 13, 2022 12:30:08 GMT -5
Sports Hub is talking about the article from this morning. It really seems like Henry is laying the ground work and getting ahead of Xander JD Nate and Devers leaving. Odd timing. What article
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jul 13, 2022 12:30:48 GMT -5
Would it be wrong for us to make the deal for bell on our own and tell bloom about it later. He is asleep at the wheel I fear. At this point I'd rather do the wrong thing than do nothing.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jul 13, 2022 12:38:34 GMT -5
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 13, 2022 12:53:53 GMT -5
Sports talk radio going to hot take. Thats perfectly fair what henry said. And in no way is trying to get out in front of anything
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Post by greenmonster on Jul 13, 2022 12:58:45 GMT -5
I found the comments below it more interesting than the article itself
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orion09
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Post by orion09 on Jul 13, 2022 13:08:01 GMT -5
Probably reading a little too much into this, but it sounds like they’re not really thinking about the 11+ year deal for Devers that some here think he might require. If so, he would have mentioned them both as candidates to be lifelong Sox. Doesn’t mean they won’t try to throw a lot of money at him on a 7-9 year deal
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 13, 2022 13:12:11 GMT -5
My impression after reading that article is that John Henry successfully managed to convey zero information.
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Post by greenmonster on Jul 13, 2022 14:02:06 GMT -5
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Post by Guidas on Jul 13, 2022 15:24:38 GMT -5
Garrett Cooper's not a FA until after 2024 I think. That would be mighty expensive given his current numbers. They'd prob want Casas (or Yorke if they believe in him) plus more. He's also 31, so this may be a career year for him. Somewhat slow decline after that, probably, but this move might be more tenable if they had Xander/Eovaldi/JDM/Vaz for one more year. This is the last year for the core +Devers. Shame the pen is so awful. Probably has cost them 6-7 games in the standings based on late-inning meltdowns since the beginning of the season right up to last night. Casas or Yorke and then some for a 31-year-old whose current 1.7 fWAR is his career high? That would be totally bananas. Look at the market and the need. Trading for a guy like that won't be cheap or anywhere near painless. He could play First and DH and is a high OBP guy with pop. That's a valuable commodity. But you won't see me complain if the Sox get him for anyone not in the system top 8. Our system is still in the bottom 1/3rd though, so other teams will have more to offer by giving up fewer guys.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 13, 2022 15:57:12 GMT -5
Casas or Yorke and then some for a 31-year-old whose current 1.7 fWAR is his career high? That would be totally bananas. Our system is still in the bottom 1/3rd though, so other teams will have more to offer by giving up fewer guys.According to who? MLB has the Red Sox 14th, BA 11th, ESPN 16th and FG 5th from the latest rankings I'm able to find. Even from the less reputable sites I couldn't find one that had the Red Sox that low. EDIT: Don't have an Athletic subscription, but just found that Law did rank them 20th before the season, so maybe that's who you're referencing, but worth noting that what you said is far from the consensus.
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 13, 2022 16:24:07 GMT -5
I would cross off any AL east team trading for any of these players
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Post by incandenza on Jul 13, 2022 16:37:02 GMT -5
TEN? Good lord. Just spotting wins to our division rival.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 13, 2022 16:43:12 GMT -5
Casas or Yorke and then some for a 31-year-old whose current 1.7 fWAR is his career high? That would be totally bananas. Look at the market and the need. Trading for a guy like that won't be cheap or anywhere near painless. He could play First and DH and is a high OBP guy with pop. That's a valuable commodity. But you won't see me complain if the Sox get him for anyone not in the system top 8. Our system is still in the bottom 1/3rd though, so other teams will have more to offer by giving up fewer guys. No rational scouting publication would put the Red Sox in the bottom 3rd at this point. Coming into the season the lowest I saw was that BR had us at 22 (and they moved the Red Sox up to 19 in May - likely higher now). Fangraphs just moved us up to #5 (from #8). Not sure of BP and BA atm, but the smaller scouting sites have the Red Sox ~10th (no recent updates). It's easily a top half system at the moment. Edit: looks like Scotty covered much of this (I didn't refresh the page). Fangraphs just update AGAIN today - Red Sox looks slightly better (Wink/Raf up; Gilberto down) but with same rank. Giving a player rank is a better way to do this than system rank as some systems are very top heavy from top 10 prospect(s). www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2022-in-season-prospect-list/summary?sort=-1,1&type=0&filter=&pos=&team=bos
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jul 13, 2022 16:58:20 GMT -5
Not to mention that we are probably going to add at least 2-3 more players to our top 30 prospects come draft time. That won't help us climb the rankings but it will help mitigate some of the damage from trading a few prospects at the deadline.
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