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Post by jimed14 on Jul 26, 2022 20:11:25 GMT -5
If I had one wish it would be that people cared more than 0% about advanced predictive stats. These are the stats that teams use to run their teams. Verdugo has a higher xwOBA than Jose Ramirez. there is not stat, advanced or counting, that should be looked at in a vacuum. and this appears to be the case here. It also should not be ignored completely. I am not saying he's Jose Ramirez. I'm saying he's better than people think.
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nomar
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Posts: 11,497
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Post by nomar on Jul 26, 2022 20:13:01 GMT -5
The core guys that the Sox are potentially losing are 29, 34, and 32. So what’s the difference between them and free agents in their late 20s-early 30s? IMO the only concerns with selling are: - We’ll be punting on this season - if we trade Bogaerts, he’s gone Other than that I fail to see how it does anything but help the odds of competing in the future for one, our core guys have been top of the line and we don't know who their replacements will be. But in the end, it just seems strange to me with all the talk of not wanting to extend our guys to go fishing in FA waters. Not saying you specifically, but just generally. Most FA's are going to be castoffs from their teams, because of cost. So we'll see Yeah I do agree that it feels like a pretty abrupt end to an era.
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Post by notstarboard on Jul 26, 2022 20:13:02 GMT -5
If you've reached the part of your career when you have... Warning track power
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 26, 2022 20:13:19 GMT -5
come on bruh, he has some good baseball skills. Sorry, my man. He has exactly zero above average baseball tools. I had high hopes for him in 2020, but he’s sunk like a stone ever since. They might want to go the Benintendi route with him and hope he can figure it out somewhere else. Difference between Benintendi when we gave up on him and Verdugo now is that Verdugo has a k-rate of less than half with the same power and a much higher xwOBA.
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Post by manfred on Jul 26, 2022 20:14:23 GMT -5
My guess is he's going to admit to a nagging injury and have some sort of surgery when the season is over. Just feels like he's playing through something nagging. If I had one wish it would be that people cared more than 0% about advanced predictive stats. These are the stats that teams use to run their teams. Verdugo has a higher xwOBA than Jose Ramirez. But… he is low in hard hit, exit velocity, and barrels. And he is bottom 20% in walking. The guy might have a decent xwOBA, but it isn’t from walking and it isn’t from bombs. My guess is… speculating… a guy who hits above league average ground balls and not exceedingly hard might have a higher expected average than average in practice.
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briam
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Posts: 1,180
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Post by briam on Jul 26, 2022 20:14:33 GMT -5
Winck 3.27 xFIP in AAA, 4.22 xFIP in MLB this year (second one will go down some tonight) He can't strike people out but he keeps the ball on the ground and doesn't walk too many guys. #5 starter is a reasonable hope for him. You can't just focus on the lack of strikeouts while ignoring what he does well. If he struck out guys at an average rate he'd be an all star He’s dead last in whiff %, I just don’t think you can be a productive starter if you have to pray for BABIP luck every AB.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jul 26, 2022 20:15:06 GMT -5
come on bruh, he has some good baseball skills. Sorry, my man. He has exactly zero above average baseball tools. I had high hopes for him in 2020, but he’s sunk like a stone ever since. They might want to go the Benintendi route with him and hope he can figure it out somewhere else. IMO, he is most likely to get moved prior to the deadline. I think he could fetch a decent prospect or 2 and LF's can be found.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 26, 2022 20:15:26 GMT -5
If I had one wish it would be that people cared more than 0% about advanced predictive stats. These are the stats that teams use to run their teams. Verdugo has a higher xwOBA than Jose Ramirez. But… he is low in hard hit, exit velocity, and barrels. And he is bottom 20% in walking. The guy might have a decent xwOBA, but it isn’t from walking and it isn’t from bombs. My guess is… speculating… a guy who hits above league average ground balls and not exceedingly hard might have a higher expected average than average in practice. xwOBA takes quality and placement of contact into consideration already.
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Post by notstarboard on Jul 26, 2022 20:16:45 GMT -5
Winck 3.27 xFIP in AAA, 4.22 xFIP in MLB this year (second one will go down some tonight) He can't strike people out but he keeps the ball on the ground and doesn't walk too many guys. #5 starter is a reasonable hope for him. You can't just focus on the lack of strikeouts while ignoring what he does well. If he struck out guys at an average rate he'd be an all star He’s dead last in whiff %, I just don’t think you can be a productive starter if you have to pray for BABIP luck every AB. A high whiff percentage is surely better - at least then you don't have to pray! /s
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 26, 2022 20:17:19 GMT -5
Winck 3.27 xFIP in AAA, 4.22 xFIP in MLB this year (second one will go down some tonight) He can't strike people out but he keeps the ball on the ground and doesn't walk too many guys. #5 starter is a reasonable hope for him. You can't just focus on the lack of strikeouts while ignoring what he does well. If he struck out guys at an average rate he'd be an all star He’s dead last in whiff %, I just don’t think you can be a productive starter if you have to pray for BABIP luck every AB. You have to pray for BABIP luck even if you strike out 40% of batters. There's a bigger buffer of course for high K guys, but you cannot ignore the ability to induce weak contact, which is a trait of most sinker ball pitchers.
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Post by manfred on Jul 26, 2022 20:19:41 GMT -5
But… he is low in hard hit, exit velocity, and barrels. And he is bottom 20% in walking. The guy might have a decent xwOBA, but it isn’t from walking and it isn’t from bombs. My guess is… speculating… a guy who hits above league average ground balls and not exceedingly hard might have a higher expected average than average in practice. xwOBA takes quality and placement of contact into consideration already. Ok. But those numbers are still there. We are talking about a guy who has been robbed by that measure of a lot of singles. And his OBA — real or imagined — will always be hampered by his low walk rates. Are we expecting him to be a .320 hitter? I’m not arguing he sucks. He *does* suck this year. But he reminds me a bit of late-era Mile Greenwell. A guy you keep expecting to show power who is mostly a singles hitter.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 26, 2022 20:20:35 GMT -5
Jaylin Davis looks like he'd be a better player than several Red Sox players like JBJ, Refsnyder, and Duran.
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Post by manfred on Jul 26, 2022 20:21:11 GMT -5
Jaylin Davis looks like he'd be a better player than several Red Sox players like JBJ, Refsnyder, and Duran. I thought the first time around! He looks ok.
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cdj
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Posts: 15,647
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Post by cdj on Jul 26, 2022 20:22:18 GMT -5
sure, but this has been a precipitous drop. he is only 26. My guess is he's going to admit to a nagging injury and have some sort of surgery when the season is over. Just feels like he's playing through something nagging. So I didn’t want to say anything when it happened because I didn’t want to deal with questions on if I’m pulling some BS or my impartiality towards Verdugo but my buddy is friends with Verdugo from way back. The night Doogs walked it off against the Yankees I texted him “that’s a bad man!”. I didn’t know my friend was at the game but basically he FaceTimed me 15 min later from the players lot with Verdugo and I missed the FT. I Called him back 4 min later after I saw the text that said he had called me with him and Verdugo was gone because he had to go get treatment. Now it could just be generic treatment that players get postgame. It could be management of something he’s been dealing with. Idk. I don’t ask my friend stuff like that, it’s not my business. I’ve also been living a life of regret ever since missing that call, I’ve always wanted to talk to Verdugo and what better of a night for it to happen than that night lol If mods want me to delete this I would totally understand as I’m a completely random, anonymous forum poster.
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briam
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Post by briam on Jul 26, 2022 20:24:44 GMT -5
He’s dead last in whiff %, I just don’t think you can be a productive starter if you have to pray for BABIP luck every AB. You have to pray for BABIP luck even if you strike out 40% of batters. There's a bigger buffer of course for high K guys, but you cannot ignore the ability to induce weak contact, which is a trait of most sinker ball pitchers. He hasn’t been generating soft contact though either. That’s sort of my gripe, it’s not like he’s throwing bowling balls out there.
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briam
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Posts: 1,180
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Post by briam on Jul 26, 2022 20:24:59 GMT -5
He’s dead last in whiff %, I just don’t think you can be a productive starter if you have to pray for BABIP luck every AB. A high whiff percentage is surely better - at least then you don't have to pray! /s Dynamite drop in Monty.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 26, 2022 20:25:52 GMT -5
xwOBA takes quality and placement of contact into consideration already. Ok. But those numbers are still there. We are talking about a guy who has been robbed by that measure of a lot of singles. And his OBA — real or imagined — will always be hampered by his low walk rates. Are we expecting him to be a .320 hitter? I’m not arguing he sucks. He *does* suck this year. But he reminds me a bit of late-era Mile Greenwell. A guy you keep expecting to show power who is mostly a singles hitter. Well his xBA is .294 and his xSLG is .451 this year. With his current walk rate, his xOBP would be .334 and his xOPS would be .785. And his fWAR would be around 2.5.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 26, 2022 20:27:16 GMT -5
OK Sanchez made up for his error right there.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 26, 2022 20:28:22 GMT -5
My guess is he's going to admit to a nagging injury and have some sort of surgery when the season is over. Just feels like he's playing through something nagging. So I didn’t want to say anything when it happened because I didn’t want to deal with questions on if I’m pulling some BS or my impartiality towards Verdugo but my buddy is friends with Verdugo from way back. The night Doogs walked it off against the Yankees I texted him “that’s a bad man!”. I didn’t know my friend was at the game but basically he FaceTimed me 15 min later from the players lot with Verdugo and I missed the FT. I Called him back 4 min later after I saw the text that said he had called me with him and Verdugo was gone because he had to go get treatment. Now it could just be generic treatment that players get postgame. It could be management of something he’s been dealing with. Idk. I don’t ask my friend stuff like that, it’s not my business. I’ve also been living a life of regret ever since missing that call, I’ve always wanted to talk to Verdugo and what better of a night for it to happen than that night lol If mods want me to delete this I would totally understand as I’m a completely random, anonymous forum poster. That's interesting. He had back issues when we first got him. Obviously all with a grain of salt. On another note, you know things are going well when we're arguing how much our players actually suck when a game is going on. Edit: yes, I said "our". Sue me.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 26, 2022 20:29:00 GMT -5
Looks like the O's are going to pass us tonight
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jul 26, 2022 20:31:54 GMT -5
Looks like the O's are going to pass us tonight and the hits...or lack thereof in our case...just keep on coming.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jul 26, 2022 20:34:12 GMT -5
We let go of Mookie Betts in 2019. We let go of Babe Ruth in 1919. All i gotta say is i am glad wasn't born in 2020.
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Post by philip on Jul 26, 2022 20:36:56 GMT -5
I think this is a lost season but selling mlb players for more AA players that aren’t any better than the ones we have does not make sense. The gap between minors and majors is huge look at dalbec . Cordero. Duran. All stars at AAA. But exposed at the major league level. Also waving the white flag will have a negative effect for the Fan base and revenues.
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Post by notstarboard on Jul 26, 2022 20:38:51 GMT -5
We let go of Mookie Betts in 2019. We let go of Babe Ruth in 1919. All i gotta say is i am glad wasn't born in 2020. I'll call it the Curse of the Babamook. Y'all have about 84 years to come up with a better name.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jul 26, 2022 20:39:40 GMT -5
I just had to drive from Alpharetta GA back home to NC. Listened to Sean M and Joe C on Sirius. For those watching, is it as bad as it sounded?
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