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Post by jimed14 on Jul 26, 2022 20:43:00 GMT -5
I just had to drive from Alpharetta GA back home to NC. Listened to Sean M and Joe C on Sirius. For those watching, is it as bad as it sounded? Na, I still love baseball bad and good.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 26, 2022 20:43:34 GMT -5
I just had to drive from Alpharetta GA back home to NC. Listened to Sean M and Joe C on Sirius. For those watching, is it as bad as it sounded? The pregame ceremony with Big Papi was great. The rest of the baseball evening not so much.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jul 26, 2022 20:45:00 GMT -5
I just had to drive from Alpharetta GA back home to NC. Listened to Sean M and Joe C on Sirius. For those watching, is it as bad as it sounded? in 1 word......LOL
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Jul 26, 2022 20:50:35 GMT -5
When’s the last time the Sox scored more than three runs in an inning?
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Post by benzinger on Jul 26, 2022 20:51:51 GMT -5
Ok. But those numbers are still there. We are talking about a guy who has been robbed by that measure of a lot of singles. And his OBA — real or imagined — will always be hampered by his low walk rates. Are we expecting him to be a .320 hitter? I’m not arguing he sucks. He *does* suck this year. But he reminds me a bit of late-era Mile Greenwell. A guy you keep expecting to show power who is mostly a singles hitter. Well his xBA is .294 and his xSLG is .451 this year. With his current walk rate, his xOBP would be .334 and his xOPS would be .785. And his fWAR would be around 2.5. Well, I’m sold. He should be on the xAll Star Team.
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 26, 2022 20:56:10 GMT -5
When’s the last time the Sox scored more than three runs in an inning? During the ford administration
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Post by manfred on Jul 26, 2022 20:57:06 GMT -5
Bobby a day away from dropping below the Mendoza line.
Serious question: Bobby or Chavis? Did we give up on the (marginally) better guy?
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jul 26, 2022 20:59:57 GMT -5
Wow, I wish the drive were longer (well, not really - nearly 4 hours is enough). But...I am back to watching it. If they cleaned things up last night, they are back to really sloppy ball again, I see.
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Post by benzinger on Jul 26, 2022 21:00:08 GMT -5
Insult to injury department: Hunter Renfroe has homered in four of the Brewers' first five games out of the All-Star break.
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Post by manfred on Jul 26, 2022 21:07:21 GMT -5
Insult to injury department: Hunter Renfroe has homered in four of the Brewers' first five games out of the All-Star break. I am as critical as the next guy, but trading Renfroe was fine. I wasn’t huge on his signing. He performed better than I expected. But I was good with betting he’d struggle to repeat. My beef was not replacing him. But he is not a guy I check in on and get wistful about.
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Post by manfred on Jul 26, 2022 21:09:35 GMT -5
JDM *not* helping his trade value tonight.
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Post by congusgambler33 on Jul 26, 2022 21:22:44 GMT -5
Renfroe was terrible in the playoffs. He completely forgot how to hit. He was the only one, but it hurt their chances quite a bit with his non-existence. His performance in the playoffs showed management that he is not the answer in right.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 26, 2022 21:30:35 GMT -5
I think I'm ready to trade Dalbec for Trout.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jul 26, 2022 21:35:02 GMT -5
Well, we pretty much suck right now - playing with no real energy at all. Runs scored last 11 games - 3, 3, 4, 1, 5, 2, 1, 5, 4, 1, 2.
Runs given up - 8, 1, 8, 4, 28, 13, 14, 4, 5, 4, 3.
But...playing with an AAA(A) roster will do that.
Last place in the east - my goodness.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 26, 2022 21:36:49 GMT -5
If I had one wish it would be that people cared more than 0% about advanced predictive stats. These are the stats that teams use to run their teams. Verdugo has a higher xwOBA than Jose Ramirez. But… he is low in hard hit, exit velocity, and barrels. And he is bottom 20% in walking. The guy might have a decent xwOBA, but it isn’t from walking and it isn’t from bombs. My guess is… speculating… a guy who hits above league average ground balls and not exceedingly hard might have a higher expected average than average in practice. One way to test this theory would be to look at his career numbers:
| wOBA | xwOBA | 2019 | .341 | .339 | 2020 | .362 | .299 | 2021 | .334 | .340 | 2022
| .296
| .342 |
The xwOBA is about as consistent as it gets, other than 2020, a short season that was wonky in both categores. Other than that he just looks anomalously unlucky this year.
Having said that, his batted ball profile doesn't look great to me, by the eye test - a lot of weak grounders right at guys. So I'm open to the possibility that we should expect him to systematically underperform his xwOBA. (E.g., maybe he's especially susceptible to defensive positioning.) But if that's true, it's something that hasn't happened in past seasons.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 26, 2022 21:37:24 GMT -5
We are in last place now.
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Post by manfred on Jul 26, 2022 21:43:54 GMT -5
But… he is low in hard hit, exit velocity, and barrels. And he is bottom 20% in walking. The guy might have a decent xwOBA, but it isn’t from walking and it isn’t from bombs. My guess is… speculating… a guy who hits above league average ground balls and not exceedingly hard might have a higher expected average than average in practice. One way to test this theory would be to look at his career numbers:
| wOBA | xwOBA | 2019 | .341 | .339 | 2020 | .362 | .299 | 2021 | .334 | .340 | 2022
| .296
| .342 |
The xwOBA is about as consistent as it gets, other than 2020, a short season that was wonky in both categores. Other than that he just looks anomalously unlucky this year.
Having said that, his batted ball profile doesn't look great to me, by the eye test - a lot of weak grounders right at guys. So I'm open to the possibility that we should expect him to systematically underperform his xwOBA. But if that's true, it's something that hasn't happened in past seasons.
I accept your numbers, and you make a good case. But by eye test… the guy has not been good this year. So many pop flies and rolled grounders. And overall I have not been impressed by his power. I think he looks less athletic this season… slower, maybe a wee bit heavy (some muscle, mind you). Maybe he is hurt. But… if he is hurt, that is another thing, since he seems a little fragile with back issues.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 27, 2022 1:03:06 GMT -5
Renfroe was terrible in the playoffs. He completely forgot how to hit. He was the only one, but it hurt their chances quite a bit with his non-existence. His performance in the playoffs showed management that he is not the answer in right. Do you mean he wasn't the only one? I sure remember Bobby's spot on impression of a deer in the headlights. Not to mention the entire rest of the team in games 4, 5 and 6 of the ALCS after HOU dared the league to call them on going back to sticky stuff...
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 27, 2022 1:04:07 GMT -5
Funny thing about .500 teams is they mostly lose to good teams and beat bad teams and split against other .500 teams...
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Post by dirtdog on Jul 27, 2022 10:22:00 GMT -5
I think I'm ready to trade Dalbec for Trout. Me too. Though Trout seems to miss a chunk of games the last few years. Still HOF path in a terrible organization.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 27, 2022 12:02:48 GMT -5
I think I'm ready to trade Dalbec for Trout. Me too. Though Trout seems to miss a chunk of games the last few years. Still HOF path in a terrible organization. I think it just might be worth the risk.
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Post by keninten on Jul 27, 2022 13:50:27 GMT -5
I think I'm ready to trade Dalbec for Trout. They need to pay part of his salary.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 27, 2022 16:05:52 GMT -5
If this team isn't selling then whomever made that decision should be fired.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,647
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Post by cdj on Jul 27, 2022 16:24:29 GMT -5
Duran 8 Verdugo 7 Bogaerts 6 Martinez DH Vazquez 2 Cordero 3 Dalbec 5 JBJ 9 Sanchez 4
hello darkness my old friend
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Post by dirtdog on Jul 27, 2022 16:53:34 GMT -5
If this team isn't selling then whomever made that decision should be fired. Probably Henry. I think Bloom is for whatever makes sense which would look like selling right now.
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