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2023 40-Man Roster Discussion
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 15, 2023 12:56:11 GMT -5
I would not expect Andrus or Iglesias, fyi.
Just going to have to trust me on that one.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 15, 2023 12:58:45 GMT -5
I would not expect Andrus or Iglesias, fyi. Just going to have to trust me on that one. How about Solano? I'd take Will Smith for the pen if that was doable.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 15, 2023 13:03:25 GMT -5
I would not expect Andrus or Iglesias, fyi. Just going to have to trust me on that one. Interesting, considering someone posted how Bloom mentioned they were still potentially in the market for MI help especially a SS capable player and weren't ruling out a ML contract. Not sure who that would would really leave after Andrus and Iglesias.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 15, 2023 13:04:27 GMT -5
I would not expect Andrus or Iglesias, fyi. Just going to have to trust me on that one. How about Solano? I'd take Will Smith for the pen if that was doable. Why are you so high on Smith? He'd project to be the third best lefty in the bullpen; hardly seems like that would be addressing a crucial need.
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Post by tjb21 on Feb 15, 2023 13:15:14 GMT -5
I would not expect Andrus or Iglesias, fyi. Just going to have to trust me on that one. Thanks for sharing. A bit suprising, but certainly not shocking.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 15, 2023 13:23:54 GMT -5
How about Solano? I'd take Will Smith for the pen if that was doable. Why are you so high on Smith? He'd project to be the third best lefty in the bullpen; hardly seems like that would be addressing a crucial need. Because I think he'd be the 1st best lefty in the pen and could be a good closer candidate if Jansen struggles mightily with the rule changes, etc. In 2021 he was the closer on a World Championship team (yes, Jansen was in 2020 but was terrible again in the post-season) and pitched well and then he pitched well with Houston in 2022. I like Bleier but I think Smith is better than him and I sure as hell wouldn't take Joely Rodriguez over him. That's for damn sure. And at this point with limited money, what crucial need are you going to address, especially if Iglesias and Andrus are a no-go? Donovan Solano is the only infield guy I can think of that's left that could help them. Between Tapia and Refsnyder they got backup OF covered. They're certainly not getting a starting pitching upgrade with the $ they have left. They have plenty of RH bullpen guys.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 15, 2023 13:43:15 GMT -5
Why are you so high on Smith? He'd project to be the third best lefty in the bullpen; hardly seems like that would be addressing a crucial need. Because I think he'd be the 1st best lefty in the pen and could be a good closer candidate if Jansen struggles mightily with the rule changes, etc. In 2021 he was the closer on a World Championship team (yes, Jansen was in 2020 but was terrible again in the post-season) and pitched well and then he pitched well with Houston in 2022. I like Bleier but I think Smith is better than him and I sure as hell wouldn't take Joely Rodriguez over him. That's for damn sure.And at this point with limited money, what crucial need are you going to address, especially if Iglesias and Andrus are a no-go? Donovan Solano is the only infield guy I can think of that's left that could help them. Between Tapia and Refsnyder they got backup OF covered. They're certainly not getting a starting pitching upgrade with the $ they have left. They have plenty of RH bullpen guys. Why though?
Career FIP/xFIP:
Smith: 3.62/3.50 Joely: 3.65/3.83 Bleier: 3.49/3.79
Since 2021:
Smith: 4.21/4.10 Joely: 3.33/3.43
Bleier: 3.13/3.29
The comparison looks even worse for Smith if you include 2020, which is fair to exclude, but that means you have to go back four years to get to a season where Smith was arguably the best pitcher of the bunch.
Also every listed projection system has Joely as a better pitcher than Smith in 2023, and all but Zips has Bleier better (and Zips is close).
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Post by rico6 on Feb 15, 2023 14:28:02 GMT -5
I would not expect Andrus or Iglesias, fyi. Just going to have to trust me on that one. Interesting, considering someone posted how Bloom mentioned they were still potentially in the market for MI help especially a SS capable player and weren't ruling out a ML contract. Not sure who that would would really leave after Andrus and Iglesias. I believe Bloom also made a reference to as camp goes along teams will be shaping their rosters and I think he will pickup a SS capable player via trade and that player will be a "on the fringes of the roster" type player. Not an excitable name. They still will have Mondesi due back at some point and hopefully Story so some infielders will have to go at that point.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 15, 2023 20:39:10 GMT -5
Because I think he'd be the 1st best lefty in the pen and could be a good closer candidate if Jansen struggles mightily with the rule changes, etc. In 2021 he was the closer on a World Championship team (yes, Jansen was in 2020 but was terrible again in the post-season) and pitched well and then he pitched well with Houston in 2022. I like Bleier but I think Smith is better than him and I sure as hell wouldn't take Joely Rodriguez over him. That's for damn sure.And at this point with limited money, what crucial need are you going to address, especially if Iglesias and Andrus are a no-go? Donovan Solano is the only infield guy I can think of that's left that could help them. Between Tapia and Refsnyder they got backup OF covered. They're certainly not getting a starting pitching upgrade with the $ they have left. They have plenty of RH bullpen guys. Why though? Career FIP/xFIP: Smith: 3.62/3.50 Joely: 3.65/3.83 Bleier: 3.49/3.79 Since 2021: Smith: 4.21/4.10 Joely: 3.33/3.43
Bleier: 3.13/3.29 The comparison looks even worse for Smith if you include 2020, which is fair to exclude, but that means you have to go back four years to get to a season where Smith was arguably the best pitcher of the bunch.
Also every listed projection system has Joely as a better pitcher than Smith in 2023, and all but Zips has Bleier better (and Zips is close).
Because Joely's FIP has consistently been a lot lower than his ERA. Flukes happen but several years in a row? At some point he is what he is, a guy who's going to average giving up an actual earned run per 2 innings. And all this is lower leverage situations. Doubt Joely has been in many crucial situations in his career. With Smith, if you want to talk the last two seasons, fine. He had a decent year as a closer on Atlanta in 2021 although his control wasn't as good. Then in the post season he was nails. While Joely would never sniff the 9th inning of any meaningful games there was Smith finishing off the Astros in the World Series. Can't get much more high leverage than that. Then in 2022 his control went the wrong way, which means about what Joelys walk rate is usually around. Then he was traded to the Astros and was dominant with them. They might have fixed his control issues although you can say small sample size and I wouldn't argue with you. Still, while you compare FIP numbers and I get that they're predictive, but consistently giving up more actual runs in low leverage like Joely does versus having the much better ERA short term and long term and having experience in high leverage....I'll take Smith, especially if he's a bargain any day over Joely. You can make an argument with Bleier over Smith, but I'd still pitch Smith in the higher leverage late innings and keep Bleier in the earlier innings, but like I said, Bleier has quietly been damn good.
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Post by soxfaninnj on Feb 16, 2023 12:33:49 GMT -5
I would not expect Andrus or Iglesias, fyi. Just going to have to trust me on that one. Sounds like you knew about Yu Chang before most.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Feb 16, 2023 15:17:41 GMT -5
Why though? Career FIP/xFIP: Smith: 3.62/3.50 Joely: 3.65/3.83 Bleier: 3.49/3.79 Since 2021: Smith: 4.21/4.10 Joely: 3.33/3.43
Bleier: 3.13/3.29 The comparison looks even worse for Smith if you include 2020, which is fair to exclude, but that means you have to go back four years to get to a season where Smith was arguably the best pitcher of the bunch.
Also every listed projection system has Joely as a better pitcher than Smith in 2023, and all but Zips has Bleier better (and Zips is close).
Because Joely's FIP has consistently been a lot lower than his ERA. Flukes happen but several years in a row? At some point he is what he is, a guy who's going to average giving up an actual earned run per 2 innings. And all this is lower leverage situations. Doubt Joely has been in many crucial situations in his career. With Smith, if you want to talk the last two seasons, fine. He had a decent year as a closer on Atlanta in 2021 although his control wasn't as good. Then in the post season he was nails. While Joely would never sniff the 9th inning of any meaningful games there was Smith finishing off the Astros in the World Series. Can't get much more high leverage than that. Then in 2022 his control went the wrong way, which means about what Joelys walk rate is usually around. Then he was traded to the Astros and was dominant with them. They might have fixed his control issues although you can say small sample size and I wouldn't argue with you. Still, while you compare FIP numbers and I get that they're predictive, but consistently giving up more actual runs in low leverage like Joely does versus having the much better ERA short term and long term and having experience in high leverage....I'll take Smith, especially if he's a bargain any day over Joely. You can make an argument with Bleier over Smith, but I'd still pitch Smith in the higher leverage late innings and keep Bleier in the earlier innings, but like I said, Bleier has quietly been damn good. Imo Chris Martin is their late inning guy to get lefties. Reverse platoon splits for his career, he’s usually good against LHH I don’t see them adding a significant reliever like Smith. I’m pretty happy with their pen myself. as an aside Chang makes sense- he doesn’t require a defined role like I’m sure Andrus would and we have room to make an in-season trade if things go well this year
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 16, 2023 16:28:50 GMT -5
I would not expect Andrus or Iglesias, fyi. Just going to have to trust me on that one. Sounds like you knew about Yu Chang before most. I did not. Just knew they weren't going to sign those two.
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thelpc
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Post by thelpc on Mar 5, 2023 1:13:25 GMT -5
So who’s getting booted from the 40-Man if they need to add Alfaro to start the year?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 5, 2023 8:13:55 GMT -5
Sounds like you knew about Yu Chang before most. I did not. Just knew they weren't going to sign those two. Just curious, did you find out why they they didn't want to sign either of them and can you share the reason? Bloom already brought Iglesias in late on 2021 and he seemed to mesh well.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Mar 7, 2023 13:33:17 GMT -5
So who’s getting booted from the 40-Man if they need to add Alfaro to start the year? Ort has played himself back to milb roster ... could clear.
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Post by jphelan on Mar 13, 2023 22:36:29 GMT -5
Fangraphs has a few new pitching metrics available and if you adjust for qualified innings in 2022 you wouldn't believe who ranks highest for the Red Sox pitchers,- our lord and savior Ryan Brasier (+111 Pitching+)
fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=30&type=36&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=3&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=13,d
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 17, 2023 8:26:23 GMT -5
Who if anyone has to be traded or DFAed before opening day? On 40 man: Brasier, Dalbec, Duran, Ort, Kelly, Chang, Valdez, Hamilton, Abreu, Mills If they need Alfaro and/or want Tapia, one or two of these guys has to go away (or clear waivers). Which one(s)?
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Post by backwardsk on Mar 17, 2023 9:09:08 GMT -5
Who if anyone has to be traded or DFAed before opening day? On 40 man: Brasier, Dalbec, Duran, Ort, Kelly, Chang, Valdez, Hamilton, Abreu, Mills If they need Alfaro and/or want Tapia, one or two of these guys has to go away (or clear waivers). Which one(s)? My guess is Wong makes opening day roster. Alfaro to AAA or some other team. Tapia replaces Ort on 40 man roster.
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Post by beavertontim on Mar 17, 2023 9:20:40 GMT -5
Who if anyone has to be traded or DFAed before opening day? On 40 man: Brasier, Dalbec, Duran, Ort, Kelly, Chang, Valdez, Hamilton, Abreu, Mills If they need Alfaro and/or want Tapia, one or two of these guys has to go away (or clear waivers). Which one(s)? My guess is Wong makes opening day roster. Alfaro to AAA or some other team. Tapia replaces Ort on 40 man roster. Could Mondesi start on the 60 day IL?
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Post by tjb21 on Mar 17, 2023 9:50:55 GMT -5
My guess is Wong makes opening day roster. Alfaro to AAA or some other team. Tapia replaces Ort on 40 man roster. Could Mondesi start on the 60 day IL? Maybe if he has a setback, but it doesn't seem likely.
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Post by julyanmorley on Mar 20, 2023 17:12:28 GMT -5
Looks like Joely Rodriguez to the 60 day IL will prevent any DFAs
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 20, 2023 18:22:23 GMT -5
Looks like Joely Rodriguez to the 60 day IL will prevent any DFAs Eh, depends if they want a second true LHRP.
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Post by notnickyorke on Mar 22, 2023 2:24:07 GMT -5
Am I the only one who doesn't see a benefit to adding Alfaro and Tapia to the bench? See a lot of talk about opening up 40 man spots for them and I don't see how they improve the roster over players already there. Currently I see it playing out with a Wong, Dalbec, Chang (till Mondesi gets back), Refsnyder bench. I could see Duran making it over Dalbec if they wanted another lefty,
Alfaro made some sense when it looked like Wong was not going to be ready. Now that Wong is looking good, what does Alfaro bring to the table that Dalbec doesn't? They both would play the role of sporadically playing against left handers. Alfaro was a little better then Dalbec last year, but career numbers still favor Dalbec, particularly against leftys. Neither is good defensively, but where is Alfaro going to play if Wong is on the roster. He only has 6 games at first base and then a few more in left field. The team doesn't really need another leftfield only type.
What does Tapia bring to the table that Duran doesn't? He hasn't put above an above average offensive season. He is very bad defensively and is another left field only type. They both seem decent enough at stealing bases. We are talking about a guy with 578 career games that hasn't totaled 1 career BWar yet. It would make sense if he had a great glove you could put in center, but he doesn't. So why subtract from the teams limited luxury tax room?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 22, 2023 6:44:04 GMT -5
Am I the only one who doesn't see a benefit to adding Alfaro and Tapia to the bench? See a lot of talk about opening up 40 man spots for them and I don't see how they improve the roster over players already there. Currently I see it playing out with a Wong, Dalbec, Chang (till Mondesi gets back), Refsnyder bench. I could see Duran making it over Dalbec if they wanted another lefty, Alfaro made some sense when it looked like Wong was not going to be ready. Now that Wong is looking good, what does Alfaro bring to the table that Dalbec doesn't? They both would play the role of sporadically playing against left handers. Alfaro was a little better then Dalbec last year, but career numbers still favor Dalbec, particularly against leftys. Neither is good defensively, but where is Alfaro going to play if Wong is on the roster. He only has 6 games at first base and then a few more in left field. The team doesn't really need another leftfield only type. What does Tapia bring to the table that Duran doesn't? He hasn't put above an above average offensive season. He is very bad defensively and is another left field only type. They both seem decent enough at stealing bases. We are talking about a guy with 578 career games that hasn't totaled 1 career BWar yet. It would make sense if he had a great glove you could put in center, but he doesn't. So why subtract from the teams limited luxury tax room? Why would you want Duran languishing on the bench when he should be playing every day at some level, whether its AAA, Boston, or somewhere else? It does him no development favors to make him a bench player. Tapia is who he is, which is a decent bench piece. He's the kind of guy who doesn't/shouldn't play regularly. On a postseason roster I could possibly see the argument of Duran over Tapia, but not during the regular season when Duran needs time every day to implement his swing changes and work on his defense. As Alfaro goes, it depends on Wong's health. If Wong is good to go, I dont think Alfaro makes it. If they have any doubts about Wong's health, then Alfaro gets the call.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 22, 2023 11:32:26 GMT -5
Am I the only one who doesn't see a benefit to adding Alfaro and Tapia to the bench? See a lot of talk about opening up 40 man spots for them and I don't see how they improve the roster over players already there. Currently I see it playing out with a Wong, Dalbec, Chang (till Mondesi gets back), Refsnyder bench. I could see Duran making it over Dalbec if they wanted another lefty, Alfaro made some sense when it looked like Wong was not going to be ready. Now that Wong is looking good, what does Alfaro bring to the table that Dalbec doesn't? They both would play the role of sporadically playing against left handers. Alfaro was a little better then Dalbec last year, but career numbers still favor Dalbec, particularly against leftys. Neither is good defensively, but where is Alfaro going to play if Wong is on the roster. He only has 6 games at first base and then a few more in left field. The team doesn't really need another leftfield only type. What does Tapia bring to the table that Duran doesn't? He hasn't put above an above average offensive season. He is very bad defensively and is another left field only type. They both seem decent enough at stealing bases. We are talking about a guy with 578 career games that hasn't totaled 1 career BWar yet. It would make sense if he had a great glove you could put in center, but he doesn't. So why subtract from the teams limited luxury tax room? Why would you want Duran languishing on the bench when he should be playing every day at some level, whether its AAA, Boston, or somewhere else? It does him no development favors to make him a bench player. Tapia is who he is, which is a decent bench piece. He's the kind of guy who doesn't/shouldn't play regularly. On a postseason roster I could possibly see the argument of Duran over Tapia, but not during the regular season when Duran needs time every day to implement his swing changes and work on his defense. As Alfaro goes, it depends on Wong's health. If Wong is good to go, I dont think Alfaro makes it. If they have any doubts about Wong's health, then Alfaro gets the call. I'm really hoping, for Wong. To me, Alfaro is Gary Sanchez with cooler hair and a better personality but still sucks at the catching thing.
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