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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Dec 7, 2022 10:33:27 GMT -5
I wonder if the Yankees are still in on Rondon after throwing a crap ton at Judge. That would probably have to be it, if they do. They also lost Taillon, which is a pretty big loss. Would not be stunned at all if they sign Eovaldi today.
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atzar
Veteran
Posts: 1,880
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Post by atzar on Dec 7, 2022 10:34:16 GMT -5
My first impression of the juiced ball thing is that their sample isn't large enough to be considered a smoking gun. They tested a couple hundred balls. The MLB uses somewhere in the realm of a quarter-million balls per season in live game action. I just don't think that's a big enough piece of the pie to be meaningfully representative.
That said, I absolutely would not be surprised if the league tried to tilt outcomes like this. And not just for Judge's record chase. I'd be interested to know ball data for Pujols' late-season explosion to pass ARod too, for example. I think the league is so desperate to appeal to casual viewers that they'd have a lot to gain by 'helping' nationally-televised games and giving a little 'nudge' to some milestone events.
I'd be interested in seeing the average ball flight of the games in question. Did fly balls travel measurably farther in nationally-televised games over the course of the season? Or in Yankee games during Judge's chase? Or in playoff games? If there is a difference, IMO that would give this legitimacy that it just doesn't really have on its own.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Dec 7, 2022 10:37:37 GMT -5
So with that Judge contract, that is yet another free agent who has blown the Fangraphs crowd estimates out of the water. Ben Clemens has so far come much closer, but he has still been light on every contract - both in terms of years and total $. And his projection for Bogaerts is 7/$217.
I am sticking with my guess that Xander signs for 8/$225, maybe even 8/$240. We are in a new era now.
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Post by manfred on Dec 7, 2022 11:09:42 GMT -5
Mets get Quintana for 2/$26 mill? Seems like a steal in this market. Nice way to replace Walker.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Dec 7, 2022 11:10:17 GMT -5
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 7, 2022 11:20:36 GMT -5
The Quintana deal is so stunningly better than the Walker or Taillon ones that it makes me think something odd is going on there.
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Post by jmei on Dec 7, 2022 12:04:23 GMT -5
So with that Judge contract, that is yet another free agent who has blown the Fangraphs crowd estimates out of the water. Ben Clemens has so far come much closer, but he has still been light on every contract - both in terms of years and total $. And his projection for Bogaerts is 7/$217. I am sticking with my guess that Xander signs for 8/$225, maybe even 8/$240. We are in a new era now. It’s a biased sample as have so far, though. The tendency tends to be that the earlier contracts are the larger ones (because players only accept the premium offers early in the offseason) and the more value contracts get signed later in the offseason. Let’s see where we are in March before making a judgment here.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 7, 2022 12:57:25 GMT -5
People can gloat about what this will mean in 2028, but the Yankees just signed the MVP. Wouldn’t we be gloating if they *didn’t*? So they will return Judge and Rizzo. As of now the Sox have Chris Martin and Joely Rodriguez. Whatever Judge’s price, Cashman has gotten done what he needed to. Bloom’s turn. Yes! That's the beauty of this - we get to gloat either way! He gave them 11 WAR last season for $20 million. No way he's matching that again, and either he was going to take his potential, say, 7 WAR to another team and the Yankees are way worse than last season, or he gets twice as much from New York to give them 7 (or whatever) WAR... and then they keep giving him that amount until he's 40. It was always a win-win for Red Sox fans.
(this is mitigated only slightly by the fact that we now face this same dynamic, to a lesser degree, with Devers)
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Post by vermontsox1 on Dec 7, 2022 13:00:29 GMT -5
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Post by xdmo on Dec 7, 2022 13:04:31 GMT -5
5 years, 87.5 Passan is reporting for Contreras.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 7, 2022 13:09:44 GMT -5
5 years, 87.5 Passan is reporting for Contreras. The AAV seems fair but that 5th year probably be a deadweight year if I had to guess.
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Post by orion09 on Dec 7, 2022 13:13:06 GMT -5
5 years, 87.5 Passan is reporting for Contreras. Seems like a reasonable deal, I like this for the Cards. If he stays healthy, I think he has a decent chance to recoup on value in the first three years.
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Post by xdmo on Dec 7, 2022 14:29:02 GMT -5
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Post by manfred on Dec 7, 2022 14:31:34 GMT -5
I’m not a believer in Rodon, so I’d be cool with the Yanks going big on him.
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 7, 2022 14:32:58 GMT -5
Don't the Padres pretty much have to get Rodon
They were throwing $400 million offers around and their rotation isn't very impressive
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 7, 2022 14:39:09 GMT -5
If the a Yankees sign rodon they're gonna have a nearly 300M payroll as I read after the judge signing they're likely around 260. I don't know that I really buy them adding that type of salary.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 7, 2022 14:40:40 GMT -5
Don't the Padres pretty much have to get Rodon They were throwing $400 million offers around and their rotation isn't very impressive Heyman was just tweeting that "SD says it made no formal offer" to Judge even though he "could have gotten more $ there." Grain of salt from the Arson guy, but that comes across as really weird if true. It feels like AJ Preller is just impulsively going from star to star offering money without a real plan
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 7, 2022 16:08:36 GMT -5
People can gloat about what this will mean in 2028, but the Yankees just signed the MVP. Wouldn’t we be gloating if they *didn’t*? So they will return Judge and Rizzo. As of now the Sox have Chris Martin and Joely Rodriguez. Whatever Judge’s price, Cashman has gotten done what he needed to. Bloom’s turn. Can't speak for everyone else, but I've been hoping for the Yankees to sign him all year. Whoever signs Judge after this season seems destined for a bad outcome. He's going to be asking for a king's ransom and even if the bat doesn't fall off I don't see his body holding up over the deal. I've actually been thrilled he's done so well this year because I fully expect him to sign in NY. Now he'll get to sign a much richer deal, and therefore sink their team even more at the back part of that contract. Here's the thread: forum.soxprospects.com/thread/6493/why-judgeThis definitely looks like a short-term bet. He keeps himself in good shape, but Judge's physical profile isn't conducive to long-term success. They surely understand that and that the team as a whole has an older avg age. So yes, it's about winning it all in the next few years I'd say. Beyond that, it's likely to make poor book.
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Post by ramireja on Dec 7, 2022 16:36:23 GMT -5
If the Yankees commit another reasonably sized contract to next year's payroll, they're going to make it very difficult to get under the lowest luxury tax threshold as a third-year offender. The Mets are in a precarious spot too. I wonder if some teams are willing to go over the threshold for 3+ consecutive seasons now?
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Post by awalkinthepark on Dec 8, 2022 0:29:20 GMT -5
So with that Judge contract, that is yet another free agent who has blown the Fangraphs crowd estimates out of the water. Ben Clemens has so far come much closer, but he has still been light on every contract - both in terms of years and total $. And his projection for Bogaerts is 7/$217. I am sticking with my guess that Xander signs for 8/$225, maybe even 8/$240. We are in a new era now. I thought Xander would do well but even I was light.
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Post by xdmo on Dec 8, 2022 20:49:03 GMT -5
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Dec 8, 2022 20:49:59 GMT -5
Crazy. A team who already out spends Boston continues to spend.
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Post by xdmo on Dec 8, 2022 20:51:33 GMT -5
Yeah I was about to say, the Sox will never ever be the Mets when it comes to spending.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 8, 2022 20:52:47 GMT -5
8 years for nimmo yikes. 20AAV isn't bad but I don't see a 36-38 year old nimmo being any good anymore. Suppose that doesn't matter to Cohen with all his money.
Edit: just remembered the Mets are over the highest threshold so basically nimmo is going to cost them closer to 40 mil in actual dollars this year with the penalty unless they start shedding contracts somehow.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Dec 8, 2022 20:53:09 GMT -5
The Red Sox should never be the Mets.
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