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Post by awalkinthepark on Dec 8, 2022 20:57:49 GMT -5
All of these long deals are just ways to defer money. I don't think any of these teams are under any illusions that 38,39 or 40 years old guys will be productive. Just financial maneuvering to get the AAV down when they are expected to perform well.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 8, 2022 21:02:47 GMT -5
And now the Mets signed David Robertson too. 1 year 10 mil. Cohen just lighting money on fire in his chase for a ring.
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 8, 2022 21:09:54 GMT -5
Crazy. A team who already out spends Boston continues to spend. Who cares. Just because they have an obscene payroll it Guarantees nothing. Just ask the โdeath starโ yankees. Until they win a ws they are still the mets.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Dec 8, 2022 21:18:55 GMT -5
That deal for Nimmo is obscene. When you're Steve Cohen money doesn't matter...
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Post by xdmo on Dec 8, 2022 21:21:47 GMT -5
Lol ๐ the Mets are fun.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 8, 2022 21:22:53 GMT -5
My God they're really going to have a $400M payroll after the luxury tax penalties aren't they?
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 8, 2022 21:23:23 GMT -5
My God they're really going to have a $400M payroll after the luxury tax penalties aren't they? And still miss the playoffs
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 8, 2022 21:25:05 GMT -5
My God they're really going to have a $400M payroll after the luxury tax penalties aren't they? And still miss the playoffs Ha very possible seeing how it's questionable if they've actually improved the roster yet. Verlander for degrom is a sideways move. Unless I'm forgetting someone they haven't brought in any sort of new difference maker.
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Post by xdmo on Dec 8, 2022 21:31:13 GMT -5
My God they're really going to have a $400M payroll after the luxury tax penalties aren't they? And still miss the playoffs Can't be any worse than the Sox odds right now.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Dec 8, 2022 21:32:00 GMT -5
Crazy. A team who already out spends Boston continues to spend. Who cares. Just because they have an obscene payroll it Guarantees nothing. Just ask the โdeath starโ yankees. Until they win a ws they are still the mets. I really wouldn't care if the Sox didn't finish in last place 2 of the last 3 years and next year doesn't feel any better with likely a lower payroll. Even though the Mets will always be perennial losers. The Red Sox have only ever won with a top 5 payroll. 2004 - 2nd 2007 - 2nd 2013 - 4th 2018 - 1st That 2013 team was also the ultimate fluke. Might mean nothing for other clubs, but Boston seems to be a team that needs an inflated payroll to win. I just hate this notion that everyone seems to reside to the notion Boston can't afford any of these guys when in reality, they could sign Judge, Xander and their new left fielder. I've never been on this side of the argument of, "well they're billionaires", but seeing other clubs who make less blow by Boston while they've been completely unenjoyable is frustrating. When they're fighting to get into WC3 it's not going to make me think, "at least they saved money in 7 years by not signing Xander or Nimo". I'm just going to be grumpy until something big happens. Really hoping for a surprise and they bring in Correa.
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 8, 2022 21:35:03 GMT -5
All of these long deals are just ways to defer money. I don't think any of these teams are under any illusions that 38,39 or 40 years old guys will be productive. Just financial maneuvering to get the AAV down when they are expected to perform well. Sure, but that only makes these deals look better if the money isn't ludicrous. If a player is worth $150 million for the rest of their career, it doesn't really matter if you're paying him 5/200 or 10/200. In both cases you're overpaying. The only difference is more payroll pain now versus more payroll pain later.
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 8, 2022 21:36:31 GMT -5
Who cares. Just because they have an obscene payroll it Guarantees nothing. Just ask the โdeath starโ yankees. Until they win a ws they are still the mets. I really wouldn't care if the Sox didn't finish in last place 2 of the last 3 years and next year doesn't feel any better with likely a lower payroll. Even though the Mets will always be perennial losers. The Red Sox have only ever won with a top 5 payroll. 2004 - 2nd 2007 - 2nd 2013 - 4th 2018 - 1st That 2013 team was also the ultimate fluke. Might mean nothing for other clubs, but Boston seems to be a team that needs an inflated payroll to win. I just hate this notion that everyone seems to reside to the notion Boston can't afford any of these guys when in reality, they could sign Judge, Xander and their new left fielder. I've never been on this side of the argument of, "well they're billionaires", but seeing other clubs who make less blow by Boston while they've been completely unenjoyable is frustrating. When they're fighting to get into WC3 it's not going to make me think, "at least they saved money in 7 years by not signing Xander or Nimo". I'm just going to be grumpy until something big happens. Really hoping for a surprise and they bring in Correa. Now rank their average payroll under this ownership group versus the rest of the league, or just average their yearly ranks if that's too hard
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Dec 8, 2022 21:38:05 GMT -5
I really wouldn't care if the Sox didn't finish in last place 2 of the last 3 years and next year doesn't feel any better with likely a lower payroll. Even though the Mets will always be perennial losers. The Red Sox have only ever won with a top 5 payroll. 2004 - 2nd 2007 - 2nd 2013 - 4th 2018 - 1st That 2013 team was also the ultimate fluke. Might mean nothing for other clubs, but Boston seems to be a team that needs an inflated payroll to win. I just hate this notion that everyone seems to reside to the notion Boston can't afford any of these guys when in reality, they could sign Judge, Xander and their new left fielder. I've never been on this side of the argument of, "well they're billionaires", but seeing other clubs who make less blow by Boston while they've been completely unenjoyable is frustrating. When they're fighting to get into WC3 it's not going to make me think, "at least they saved money in 7 years by not signing Xander or Nimo". I'm just going to be grumpy until something big happens. Really hoping for a surprise and they bring in Correa. Now rank their average payroll under this ownership group versus the rest of the league, or just average their yearly ranks if that's too hard I've been a big fan of this ownership group. Even when they do headscratching things, Henry always wrote big checks, but after they fired Dombrowski it seems he's done doing that. Edit Dombrowski, not Bloom
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 8, 2022 21:39:28 GMT -5
My God they're really going to have a $400M payroll after the luxury tax penalties aren't they? And still miss the playoffs I'd say the Sox have a better chance of missing the playoffs than the Mets. These moves don't guarantee them anything as the playoffs are kind of a crapshoot but all you have to do is win about 87 games and you're in. I'd say the Mets can manage that. The Red Sox? I wouldn't count on it.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 8, 2022 21:41:15 GMT -5
Now rank their average payroll under this ownership group versus the rest of the league, or just average their yearly ranks if that's too hard I've been a big fan of this ownership group. Even when they do headscratching things, Henry always wrote big checks, but after they fired Bloom it seems he's done doing that. You know something I don't know? Haha
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Dec 8, 2022 21:49:17 GMT -5
I've been a big fan of this ownership group. Even when they do headscratching things, Henry always wrote big checks, but after they fired Bloom it seems he's done doing that. You know something I don't know? Haha Freudian slip. Thinking too much of this happening.
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 8, 2022 21:49:33 GMT -5
Baseball needs more Steve Cohens and fewer welfare check collecting franchises. Go Mets
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 8, 2022 21:56:33 GMT -5
Now rank their average payroll under this ownership group versus the rest of the league, or just average their yearly ranks if that's too hard I've been a big fan of this ownership group. Even when they do headscratching things, Henry always wrote big checks, but after they fired Bloom it seems he's done doing that. Red Sox opening day payroll rankings since FSG bought the team (opening day since that's what this source has):
2002 - 2nd
2003 - 6th
2004 - 2nd
2005 - 2nd
2006 - 2nd
2007 - 2nd
2008 - 4th
2009 - 4th
2010 - 2nd
2011 - 3rd
2012 - 3rd
2013 - 4th
2014 - 4th
2015 - 3rd
2016 - 3rd
2017 - 3rd
2018 - 1st
2019 - 1st
2020 - 3rd
2021 - 3rd
2022 - 6th
Doesn't seem like much of a departure from normal. Unrelated, but my biggest takeaway is that my childhood impressions of the Yankees being the moneybags franchise that just bought all the best players was absolutely correct. Their spending versus the rest of the league was just ridiculous some of those years.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Dec 8, 2022 22:09:18 GMT -5
All of these long deals are just ways to defer money. I don't think any of these teams are under any illusions that 38,39 or 40 years old guys will be productive. Just financial maneuvering to get the AAV down when they are expected to perform well. Sure, but that only makes these deals look better if the money isn't ludicrous. If a player is worth $150 million for the rest of their career, it doesn't really matter if you're paying him 5/200 or 10/200. In both cases you're overpaying. The only difference is more payroll pain now versus more payroll pain later. I think the money they players are getting is what teams think they are worth though. The Padres think Xander will put up $280 million over the rest of his career. But it will be paid out over 11 years.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Dec 8, 2022 22:14:50 GMT -5
I've been a big fan of this ownership group. Even when they do headscratching things, Henry always wrote big checks, but after they fired Bloom it seems he's done doing that. Red Sox opening day payroll rankings since FSG bought the team (opening day since that's what this source has):
2002 - 2nd
2003 - 6th
2004 - 2nd
2005 - 2nd
2006 - 2nd
2007 - 2nd
2008 - 4th
2009 - 4th
2010 - 2nd
2011 - 3rd
2012 - 3rd
2013 - 4th
2014 - 4th
2015 - 3rd
2016 - 3rd
2017 - 3rd
2018 - 1st
2019 - 1st
2020 - 3rd
2021 - 3rd
2022 - 6th Doesn't seem like much of a departure from normal. Unrelated, but my biggest takeaway is that my childhood impressions of the Yankees being the moneybags franchise that just bought all the best players was absolutely correct. Their spending versus the rest of the league was just ridiculous some of those years.
Interesting on the opening day payrolls. I see opening day roster as 180 million for 2021, which would be 3rd. Team payroll according to sportac is 6th for 2022, 6th for 2021, and 4th for 2020. Maybe I'm missing something for my own understanding? They also have a ton of money this off-season that still hasn't been used up with David Price 16 million Christian Vazquez 13.3 Xander Bogaerts 20 million JD Martinez 19.3 million Nathan Eovaldi 17 million With the ability to go beyond what they spent last year. I believe their acquisitions have been about half.
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 9, 2022 0:05:39 GMT -5
Sure, but that only makes these deals look better if the money isn't ludicrous. If a player is worth $150 million for the rest of their career, it doesn't really matter if you're paying him 5/200 or 10/200. In both cases you're overpaying. The only difference is more payroll pain now versus more payroll pain later. I think the money they players are getting is what teams think they are worth though.ย The Padres think Xander will put up $280 million over the rest of his career.ย But it will be paid out over 11 years. In theory at least close enough not to sweat the difference, but that's a heck of a rosy projection. He's been worth 34.5 fWAR in his 20s. Do they really expect ~80-85% of that value in his 30s, even if we assume a low (imo) $10 million / WAR guideline? He'd better not get hurt and keep it up with the bat, because the defensive value is going to be very hard to keep up.
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 9, 2022 0:07:38 GMT -5
Red Sox opening day payroll rankings since FSG bought the team (opening day since that's what this source has):
2002 - 2nd
2003 - 6th
2004 - 2nd
2005 - 2nd
2006 - 2nd
2007 - 2nd
2008 - 4th
2009 - 4th
2010 - 2nd
2011 - 3rd
2012 - 3rd
2013 - 4th
2014 - 4th
2015 - 3rd
2016 - 3rd
2017 - 3rd
2018 - 1st
2019 - 1st
2020 - 3rd
2021 - 3rd
2022 - 6th Doesn't seem like much of a departure from normal. Unrelated, but my biggest takeaway is that my childhood impressions of the Yankees being the moneybags franchise that just bought all the best players was absolutely correct. Their spending versus the rest of the league was just ridiculous some of those years.
Interesting on the opening day payrolls. I see opening day roster as 180 million for 2021, which would be 3rd. Team payroll according to sportac is 6th for 2022, 6th for 2021, and 4th for 2020. Maybe I'm missing something for my own understanding? They also have a ton of money this off-season that still hasn't been used up with David Price 16 million Christian Vazquez 13.3 Xander Bogaerts 20 million JD Martinez 19.3 million Nathan Eovaldi 17 million With the ability to go beyond what they spent last year. I believe their acquisitions have been about half. I think Spotrac shows the end of year totals, but I could be wrong on that! They definitely do need to spend a lot more this offseason to get back in that top 6 range, but I think that's really likely.
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 9, 2022 0:23:17 GMT -5
I've been a big fan of this ownership group. Even when they do headscratching things, Henry always wrote big checks, but after they fired Bloom it seems he's done doing that. Red Sox opening day payroll rankings since FSG bought the team (opening day since that's what this source has):
2002 - 2nd
2003 - 6th
2004 - 2nd
2005 - 2nd
2006 - 2nd
2007 - 2nd
2008 - 4th
2009 - 4th
2010 - 2nd
2011 - 3rd
2012 - 3rd
2013 - 4th
2014 - 4th
2015 - 3rd
2016 - 3rd
2017 - 3rd
2018 - 1st
2019 - 1st
2020 - 3rd
2021 - 3rd
2022 - 6th
Doesn't seem like much of a departure from normal. Unrelated, but my biggest takeaway is that my childhood impressions of the Yankees being the moneybags franchise that just bought all the best players was absolutely correct. Their spending versus the rest of the league was just ridiculous some of those years.
Did not realize how much the Yankees were outspending everybody else from 2002-2012 wow.
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Post by soxfanatic on Dec 9, 2022 7:47:23 GMT -5
Lol ๐ the Mets are fun. They committed 386M so far to five players (none named Judge). That's insane! Any agent salivates with teams like the Padres and Mets showing their deep pockets.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Dec 9, 2022 10:49:26 GMT -5
I think the money they players are getting is what teams think they are worth though. The Padres think Xander will put up $280 million over the rest of his career. But it will be paid out over 11 years. In theory at least close enough not to sweat the difference, but that's a heck of a rosy projection. He's been worth 34.5 fWAR in his 20s. Do they really expect ~80-85% of that value in his 30s, even if we assume a low (imo) $10 million / WAR guideline? He'd better not get hurt and keep it up with the bat, because the defensive value is going to be very hard to keep up. This is where I just disagree. It's true he needs to stay healthy, but so far in his career he has similar numbers to Jeter, Barry Larkin and Craig Biggio did at the same points in their careers. A few weeks back when Dan Szymborski released the ZiPS projections for the Red Sox, the 3 most statistically similar hitters were all in the hall of fame - Dave Bankroff, Larkin and Lou Boudreau. ZiPS thinks that the median outcome - not an optimistic outcome, but just the median - is that he puts up 31.2 WAR in his thirties. If he does that for the Padres that would come out to just under $9 million/win that they paid for, which is probably less than what others are going for on this market.
Obviously anything can happen. But Xander has never showed any signs of slowing down. I think when all is said and done this deal will work out fine for the Padres. I would personally not better against Xander after watching him for the last decade.
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