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Post by 0ap0 on Dec 9, 2022 11:07:22 GMT -5
All of these long deals are just ways to defer money. I don't think any of these teams are under any illusions that 38,39 or 40 years old guys will be productive. Just financial maneuvering to get the AAV down when they are expected to perform well. In general, yes; but for the Mets? I don't understand that. They're over the top threshold and will be for a while. They have no incentive to keep AAV down now, but maybe it'd be helpful in a few years. If they didn't actually want a guy like Nimmo for the last couple years of that contract it'd've been easy to stuff that cash into these already blown (CBT-wise) years without repercussion.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Dec 9, 2022 11:19:22 GMT -5
All of these long deals are just ways to defer money. I don't think any of these teams are under any illusions that 38,39 or 40 years old guys will be productive. Just financial maneuvering to get the AAV down when they are expected to perform well. In general, yes; but for the Mets? I don't understand that. They're over the top threshold and will be for a while. They have no incentive to keep AAV down now, but maybe it'd be helpful in a few years. If they didn't actually want a guy like Nimmo for the last couple years of that contract it'd've been easy to stuff that cash into these already blown (CBT-wise) years without repercussion. Well, there are still penalties based on how far you go over. It's the amount over the threshold that is taxed at an elevated rate, plus there are surcharges:
So there is still an incentive to kick money down the line, not to mention the normal incentive of 'a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow'. Especially in the inflationary environment going on right now.
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Post by 0ap0 on Dec 9, 2022 11:26:37 GMT -5
There’s also a surcharge threshold for clubs that exceed the base threshold by $20 million or more. $60 million or more: 60 percent surcharge So there is still an incentive to kick money down the line, not to mention the normal incentive of 'a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow'. Especially in the inflationary environment going on right now. Pretty sure they're already past the 60M overage (but I could be wrong), so that isn't a reason. Inflation is zero-sum and built in on both sides of the deal -- the player demands more money if they don't get some of it until later for the same reason.
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 9, 2022 11:30:32 GMT -5
There’s also a surcharge threshold for clubs that exceed the base threshold by $20 million or more. $60 million or more: 60 percent surcharge So there is still an incentive to kick money down the line, not to mention the normal incentive of 'a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow'. Especially in the inflationary environment going on right now. Pretty sure they're already past the 60M overage (but I could be wrong), so that isn't a reason. Inflation is zero-sum and built in on both sides of the deal -- the player demands more money if they don't get some of it until later for the same reason. It's not just about being over the cutoff line though - every additional dollar over gets taxed at that higher rate so it's much more expensive for the owners.
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Post by 0ap0 on Dec 9, 2022 11:47:59 GMT -5
It's not just about being over the cutoff line though - every additional dollar over gets taxed at that higher rate so it's much more expensive for the owners. That's only meaningful if it keeps escalating. It doesn't. Once you're over 60M+ it doesn't matter what year.
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 9, 2022 11:52:06 GMT -5
In theory at least close enough not to sweat the difference, but that's a heck of a rosy projection. He's been worth 34.5 fWAR in his 20s. Do they really expect ~80-85% of that value in his 30s, even if we assume a low (imo) $10 million / WAR guideline? He'd better not get hurt and keep it up with the bat, because the defensive value is going to be very hard to keep up. This is where I just disagree. It's true he needs to stay healthy, but so far in his career he has similar numbers to Jeter, Barry Larkin and Craig Biggio did at the same points in their careers. A few weeks back when Dan Szymborski released the ZiPS projections for the Red Sox, the 3 most statistically similar hitters were all in the hall of fame - Dave Bankroff, Larkin and Lou Boudreau. ZiPS thinks that the median outcome - not an optimistic outcome, but just the median - is that he puts up 31.2 WAR in his thirties. If he does that for the Padres that would come out to just under $9 million/win that they paid for, which is probably less than what others are going for on this market.
Obviously anything can happen. But Xander has never showed any signs of slowing down. I think when all is said and done this deal will work out fine for the Padres. I would personally not better against Xander after watching him for the last decade.
This past season many of his advanced metrics did slow down, though. Some blame it on a lingering injury from his collision with Verdugo, and that's at least plausible, but so is some level of decline.
As for his projections, I heard someone (scottysmalls?) mentioning that ZiPS has his defensive starting point going into his decline way higher than it should be, probably because it isn't accounting for the impact of the shift ban. That is in turn resulting in an unrealistic WAR projection. ZiPS also isn't going to assume a major injury that forces him to miss a lot of time and/or speeds up his decline, but that's a good chunk of the risk associated with signing an older player.
I hope you're right, though. I'd love to see X have a great end to his career.
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Post by xdmo on Dec 9, 2022 14:49:21 GMT -5
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Post by kevfc89 on Dec 9, 2022 21:16:23 GMT -5
If the Yankees say screw it a la 2009 and sign Correa and Rodon, this division is going to be unwinnable for a few years.
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Post by 07redsox on Dec 9, 2022 21:27:19 GMT -5
If the Yankees say screw it a la 2009 and sign Correa and Rodon, this division is going to be unwinnable for a few years. If you go to that tweet, the first reply is Buster saying “that’s not what I said”.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,584
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Post by radiohix on Dec 10, 2022 13:24:10 GMT -5
Kiermaier good the Jays pending physical. Will he turn the card back?
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Dec 10, 2022 13:25:44 GMT -5
Yankees signing Correa would suck. In that case, just trade Devers and start an extensive rebuild.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,664
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Post by cdj on Dec 10, 2022 13:36:52 GMT -5
Considerate of him to stay in the AL East so he can keep on robbing us
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 10, 2022 15:11:51 GMT -5
tangotiger.com/index.php/site/comments/improving-war-relief-pitcher-rolesInteresting chart. Pitchers do much worse than normal as early inning relievers, and also as extra inning relievers. Tango thinks it's because pitchers don't pitch as hard in those situations because they're pacing themselves. My speculation is that it's because pitchers aren't expecting to enter the game in those situations.
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Post by xdmo on Dec 10, 2022 23:24:26 GMT -5
Senga off the board. Cohen at it again.
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Post by soxfaninnj on Dec 10, 2022 23:28:22 GMT -5
Senga off the board. Cohen at it again. This offseason keeps getting better and better
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Post by manfred on Dec 10, 2022 23:28:52 GMT -5
Momentum
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Post by xdmo on Dec 10, 2022 23:31:32 GMT -5
5 years 75 million for Senga. Sox should have been in on that. Ohh well. Not sure what the Sox are doing these days.
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Post by soxfaninnj on Dec 10, 2022 23:32:52 GMT -5
5 years 75 million for Senga. Sox should have been in on that. Ohh well. Not sure what the Sox are doing these days. Even better
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 10, 2022 23:33:14 GMT -5
Expected something nuttier than 5/75 for Senga.
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Post by levi on Dec 10, 2022 23:33:31 GMT -5
How did Senga only get 5/75? I thought several teams had him at the same tier as Rodon…
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Dec 10, 2022 23:34:57 GMT -5
5 years 75 million for Senga. Sox should have been in on that. Ohh well. Not sure what the Sox are doing these days. Le sigh : /. Makes a signing of Eovaldi and/or a trade for a starter even more critical.
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 10, 2022 23:38:43 GMT -5
Senga's K/BB numbers were a lot worse than Rodon's last year even playing in the easier league. There's no comparison between the two.
Senga looks like a solid mid rotation guy
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Post by taiwansox on Dec 10, 2022 23:52:09 GMT -5
Senga's K/BB numbers were a lot worse than Rodon's last year even playing in the easier league. There's no comparison between the two. Senga looks like a solid mid rotation guy Yeah think more Kenta Maeda than Darvish/Ohtani
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Post by manfred on Dec 10, 2022 23:59:24 GMT -5
I mean… people were pretty psyched before we didn’t get him. And he does throw 102 MPH.
But water under the bridge. Mets will have quite a staff.
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Post by taiwansox on Dec 11, 2022 0:05:58 GMT -5
I mean… people were pretty psyched before we didn’t get him. And he does throw 102 MPH. But water under the bridge. Mets will have quite a staff. I would be psyched to have him on that contract, but his peripherals aren’t great. Bigger problem is we’re running out of ways to improve through free agency…
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