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2022-2023 Non-Red Sox Offseason Thread
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 3, 2022 12:43:16 GMT -5
ZiPS thinks the Rangers are paying $185 million for 14 WAR
Oof
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 3, 2022 12:46:43 GMT -5
Xander isn't on the roster anymore and those other guys combined last year for 3.7 WAR. I wouldn't really consider that a good "core" of cheap young guys. Will Smith had 3.9 WAR last year for the dodgers, by himself. I get your point that we have cheap, controlled guys currently on the roster, but I don't think we have enough quality guys established yet to be big time free agent players. I guess, from a macro perspective towards free agency, my point was that free agency should be used to supplement a roster of homegrown players (using the dodgers as a model) as opposed to building the roster through free agency (like the rangers seem to be doing). Then again, you could argue the Phillies were built through free agency so maybe I'm just totally off-base here? Who are you waiting for? By your logic, we don’t add until the homegrown guys are carrying the load… but this system is hardly stacked with that no doubt core. So this approach pretty much resigns us to 4-5 years of treading water. And… if there are cheap guys, what would you have them do with the money? Might as well spend up to the limit. Saved money dos no good. This is a fair way to look at it. The upper minors for the Sox doesn't scream impact players to me. We got Casas, Bello and I'll throw raefella in there as likely ML pieces. Past them the real impact potential guys are mostly just starting in double A or lower. Bleis, Mayer, Yorke etc are all promising players but quite frankly just as likely to flame out as become ML regulars if you ask me. That's just the nature of the beast. Spend some money now on good players and try and compete and then if/when the lower minors potential studs start showing up in 2-3 years you got a good problem to have.
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Post by teddyballgame9 on Dec 3, 2022 13:25:38 GMT -5
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Dec 3, 2022 18:44:13 GMT -5
I’m glad the Sox didn’t make this signing. (1) It would have meant definitely not signing X and extending Devers and (2) good luck trying to get one full year out of DeGrom let alone 5. We really missed a bullet here if Chaim and Co were actually making a serious run for him (which they weren’t and wisely so). I disagree. They were barely over the luxury tax and teams like the Padres blew by them. They can afford all 3. For more perspective though. Dodgers - $265,396,675 Mets - $261,273,320 Yankees - $251,889,255 Phillies - $242,215,746 Padres - $220,849,135 Red Sox - $207,710,905 Let's just say the Red Sox can't spend with the Mets. They're 13.1 million behind San Diego and 34.5 behind the Phillies. Now money currently coming off the books: JD Martinez- $22,000,000 (salary cap number) Nathan Eovaldi - $17,000,000 Xander Bogaerts - $20,000,000 David Price l - $16,000,000 Devers current contract was 11.2, but estimated to 17 million. So, that's 75 million off the books with a growth of 6 so $69,000,000 in freed cash and if you just wanted to catch the Padres payroll, that's 82 million to play with. That alone comes out to 27.33 million per guy, which is pretty close and that's assuming they can't afford to reach Philly or beyond. I'm sure there's a plethora of other numbers to factor in like arb, guys they just signed, releasing JBJ. I think they can make it work or they can trade away a guy to make more room. They don't need Verdugo and his potential 7 million. Oh, there's also Christian Vazquez contract, so just to make it easy, I'll just leave his 13.35 million out just to account for much of the other roster. I just think it's silly that they couldn't make it work with all 3 guys. They could even backload a deal to push money off for when guys start to come off. Edit: I'm also double dipping here with Devers accounting for his current contract and taking it away from the money available. I appreciate your intricate breakdown, but doesn’t negate the fact that deGrom wouldn’t been a terrible signing for this team, especially a 5 year deal.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Dec 3, 2022 19:25:35 GMT -5
I disagree. They were barely over the luxury tax and teams like the Padres blew by them. They can afford all 3. For more perspective though. Dodgers - $265,396,675 Mets - $261,273,320 Yankees - $251,889,255 Phillies - $242,215,746 Padres - $220,849,135 Red Sox - $207,710,905 Let's just say the Red Sox can't spend with the Mets. They're 13.1 million behind San Diego and 34.5 behind the Phillies. Now money currently coming off the books: JD Martinez- $22,000,000 (salary cap number) Nathan Eovaldi - $17,000,000 Xander Bogaerts - $20,000,000 David Price l - $16,000,000 Devers current contract was 11.2, but estimated to 17 million. So, that's 75 million off the books with a growth of 6 so $69,000,000 in freed cash and if you just wanted to catch the Padres payroll, that's 82 million to play with. That alone comes out to 27.33 million per guy, which is pretty close and that's assuming they can't afford to reach Philly or beyond. I'm sure there's a plethora of other numbers to factor in like arb, guys they just signed, releasing JBJ. I think they can make it work or they can trade away a guy to make more room. They don't need Verdugo and his potential 7 million. Oh, there's also Christian Vazquez contract, so just to make it easy, I'll just leave his 13.35 million out just to account for much of the other roster. I just think it's silly that they couldn't make it work with all 3 guys. They could even backload a deal to push money off for when guys start to come off. Edit: I'm also double dipping here with Devers accounting for his current contract and taking it away from the money available. I appreciate your intricate breakdown, but doesn’t negate the fact that deGrom wouldn’t been a terrible signing for this team, especially a 5 year deal. If you're not going to spend the money on anything better in year 1 then it's only really problematic for 4 or less. I feel like DeGrom is perfect for this team. They have a ton of depth and between him and Sale you probably have 1 ace and if by some miracle you get into October and both are healthy, you're formidable. Right now you have Bello Whitlock Pivetta Sale Paxton Crawford Seabold Wink They have the depth to risk a broken ace. Though, I'll admit I wasn't aware he was 34 last season. That does make me less excited about him.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 3, 2022 22:02:49 GMT -5
I appreciate your intricate breakdown, but doesn’t negate the fact that deGrom wouldn’t been a terrible signing for this team, especially a 5 year deal. If you're not going to spend the money on anything better in year 1 then it's only really problematic for 4 or less. I feel like DeGrom is perfect for this team. They have a ton of depth and between him and Sale you probably have 1 ace and if by some miracle you get into October and both are healthy, you're formidable. Right now you have Bello Whitlock Pivetta Sale Paxton Crawford Seabold Wink They have the depth to risk a broken ace. Though, I'll admit I wasn't aware he was 34 last season. That does make me less excited about him. He started pitching late. And in 2021 pitching only 91 innings Fangraphs said he performance was worth $37M. Texas knows they’re probably eating some money here, but if deGrom can somehow give them an average of 90-100 innings every year in deGrom or near deGromian fashion he earns out. Crazy. Meanwhile, if the Sox want to go big on an ace there are two left, unless they want to trade half the Top 8 prospects for one.
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Post by xdmo on Dec 4, 2022 19:49:47 GMT -5
Looks like Sean Murphy is about to be traded. We'll see if the Sox are involved.
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Post by kwodes on Dec 4, 2022 20:14:00 GMT -5
Looks like Sean Murphy is about to be traded. We'll see if the Sox are involved. Mark Feinsand seems to think Cardinals, Rays, Guardians, and Red Sox are the most likely spots.
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Dec 4, 2022 21:43:54 GMT -5
Looks like Sean Murphy is about to be traded. We'll see if the Sox are involved. Mark Feinsand seems to think Cardinals, Rays, Guardians, and Red Sox are the most likely spots. When's the last time a rumor the Sox were involved in (95% of all rumors) actually came to fruition? They thought he was too expensive in July, price hasn't gone down. But if the A's would take Houck, Rafaela, Wong and a Lugo/Paulino/Jordan type then sure. I doubt it though
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cdj
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Posts: 15,665
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Post by cdj on Dec 5, 2022 12:26:01 GMT -5
Mets giving Verlander 2/86
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Post by chr31ter on Dec 5, 2022 12:26:19 GMT -5
Multiple reports that Justin Verlander has agreed to a two-year, $86 million contract with the New York Mets.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Dec 5, 2022 12:28:24 GMT -5
Honestly, that's better than going 5 years to DeGrom.
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Post by manfred on Dec 5, 2022 12:30:00 GMT -5
I’d do that deal in a heartbeat. Insane annual salary, but cleared quickly one way or the other.
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 5, 2022 12:34:59 GMT -5
My prayer is that one day the Red Sox are in the right timing window - contending, tax reset years, to give one of these insane AAV short term deals to an elite pitcher. I think the deal wouldn't have made sense for them right now, but there's years where it could and I like the strategy when it does.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Dec 5, 2022 12:37:23 GMT -5
My prayer is that one day the Red Sox are in the right timing window - contending, tax reset years, to give one of these insane AAV short term deals to an elite pitcher. I think the deal wouldn't have made sense for them right now, but there's years where it could, and I like the strategy when it does. I agree. I doubt they ever will. But it sucks being a fan of a non contender waiting for the big names to come off the board.
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Post by Smittyw on Dec 5, 2022 13:16:39 GMT -5
My prayer is that one day the Red Sox are in the right timing window - contending, tax reset years, to give one of these insane AAV short term deals to an elite pitcher. I think the deal wouldn't have made sense for them right now, but there's years where it could and I like the strategy when it does. The failure to get under the CBT threshold at the trade deadline looms larger and larger...
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 5, 2022 13:21:02 GMT -5
My prayer is that one day the Red Sox are in the right timing window - contending, tax reset years, to give one of these insane AAV short term deals to an elite pitcher. I think the deal wouldn't have made sense for them right now, but there's years where it could and I like the strategy when it does. The failure to get under the CBT threshold at the trade deadline looms larger and larger... I don't think even if they did it would have made sense to give the deal to Verlander this time. Also maybe it's semantics, but I don't think it's so much a failure as it was a choice (maybe not the correct one so I do understand your point). Like in 2019 (maybe it was 2018 and I'm misremembering) the Dombrowski - Red Sox tried to get under and had the math wrong IIRC - that's a failure. This year they chose to stay over.
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 5, 2022 13:22:05 GMT -5
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Post by manfred on Dec 5, 2022 13:53:02 GMT -5
I assume the Verlander signing ends any chance the Sox get Rodon. I also wonder what it does to Eovaldi’s price. There are a lot of teams looking for pitchers, and the two top guys are gone — and gone at insane prices.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Dec 5, 2022 14:37:49 GMT -5
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 5, 2022 14:42:00 GMT -5
300 mil, 11 years(!) per Kiley McDaniel.
Dave Dombrowski DGAF! lmao
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Post by gk2186 on Dec 5, 2022 14:42:12 GMT -5
300/11 years for Turner
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Post by bloomstaxonomy on Dec 5, 2022 14:42:30 GMT -5
Promising news if you want Bogaerts back.
Not sure if anyone has discussed whether or not Turner’s skills are more apt to decline with age than other players in the same orbit, but this contract has the potential to be Carl Crawford 2.0.
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 5, 2022 14:48:34 GMT -5
11/300 seem sane. A strike against the "Free agent prices are going to get way out of control" narrative
I think the Phillies are now pretty much committed to hitting the three year luxury tax limit offender penalties in 2024.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 5, 2022 14:49:39 GMT -5
Hmm. Crowdsource had 7/210, Ben Clemens had 9/288, mlbtraderumors had 8/268.
It's over all of those in contract length but under all of them in AAV. Phillies are gonna have an insane amount of dead money for like 7 years starting ca. 2025.
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