SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Trevor Story Undergoes Internal Brace Procedure
|
Post by greenmonster on Jan 11, 2023 13:29:52 GMT -5
I am not sure there is much of an argument. I would think that any reasonable human that had a parent, spouse, child, or loved-one that was facing surgery would explore all options and get second opinions before proceeding..... Story is a person first, Red Sox second.
I am not a doctor but IMO the fact that he didn't have TJ surgery would seem to indicate that his UCL was NOT torn to the point of "no brainer" surgery. So he ended up opting for the less invasive surgery after exploring all options.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 11, 2023 13:49:26 GMT -5
Umm a set back now could mean a missed season, so I don't really buy that argument. Blooms first big free agent signing and we get this. Surgeries are always dangerous, so you don't do them until there's no other choice. That's just the reality of medicine, especially in the current environment where hospitals are stretched and even delaying non-emergency procedures in many places. The timeline, as discussed by Merloni, Bloom, and others, is that Story's arm took a turn around Christmas when he was ramping up... surgery wasn't necessary until now. He may have had pre-existing issues, but they were clearly manageable without surgery in 2022 and it was perfectly reasonable to continue on that basis until the situation changed. Turning every bit of misfortune into a referendum on Bloom's tenure is tedious. We always get this when this happens. Yet what percentage of guys does the rest thing actually work on? The majority just delay surgery and miss more games. Nevermind he already had rest last offseason and DL time this year. Given his exit velocity on throws I don't see the clearly manageable part, it was greatly effecting him. It was getting worse, not better.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Jan 11, 2023 14:24:19 GMT -5
Related- Story is going to have to put up 2 monster years in 2024-2025 to have a chance to opt out or the Sox will be on the hook for 4 years instead of 2 years. Story's contract ending up a lot like Sale's. No value on the front end. This is factually wrong. He was very nearly worth his contract last season - he produced $18.9 million in value, per fangraphs. If he comes back in the second half this year he could do that again. Of course you'd like to get surplus value in the front years of a contract, but Story still has a decent chance to be worth his contract - and he's already produced twice the value in one season that Sale has produced in the first three seasons of his deal.
|
|
|
Post by seamus on Jan 11, 2023 14:56:04 GMT -5
Surgeries are always dangerous, so you don't do them until there's no other choice. That's just the reality of medicine, especially in the current environment where hospitals are stretched and even delaying non-emergency procedures in many places. The timeline, as discussed by Merloni, Bloom, and others, is that Story's arm took a turn around Christmas when he was ramping up... surgery wasn't necessary until now. He may have had pre-existing issues, but they were clearly manageable without surgery in 2022 and it was perfectly reasonable to continue on that basis until the situation changed. Turning every bit of misfortune into a referendum on Bloom's tenure is tedious. We always get this when this happens. Yet what percentage of guys does the rest thing actually work on? The majority just delay surgery and miss more games. Nevermind he already had rest last offseason and DL time this year. Given his exit velocity on throws I don't see the clearly manageable part, it was greatly effecting him. It was getting worse, not better. To the bolded part: no idea because we don't hear about the cases where rest is sufficient. I personally suspect that hundreds of guys could plausibly have some sort of offseason surgery to deal with some ache or pain, but rest gets the job done so it doesn't get to that point. Yes, his arm was relatively weak last season, but it wasn't impacting his play at second base and I haven't seen anything to suggest his arm was worsening over the season. It was absolutely manageable last year, and there are good defensive shortstops with weak arms (e.g., Swanson), so I think it was perfectly reasonable for continuing without surgery to be a viable option. As long as there's an alternative to surgery, I really can't fault a guy for trying it. Speaking purely from personal experience, I have a nerve issue in my hand that could potentially be treated surgically... but non-surgical treatments are good enough that the potential downsides of surgery just aren't worth it. The variables are different in Story's case, of course, but it's perfectly plausible for the analysis to have resulted in the same conclusion until very recently.
|
|
|
Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 11, 2023 15:06:59 GMT -5
Surgeries are always dangerous, so you don't do them until there's no other choice. That's just the reality of medicine, especially in the current environment where hospitals are stretched and even delaying non-emergency procedures in many places. The timeline, as discussed by Merloni, Bloom, and others, is that Story's arm took a turn around Christmas when he was ramping up... surgery wasn't necessary until now. He may have had pre-existing issues, but they were clearly manageable without surgery in 2022 and it was perfectly reasonable to continue on that basis until the situation changed. Turning every bit of misfortune into a referendum on Bloom's tenure is tedious. We always get this when this happens. Yet what percentage of guys does the rest thing actually work on? The majority just delay surgery and miss more games. Nevermind he already had rest last offseason and DL time this year. Given his exit velocity on throws I don't see the clearly manageable part, it was greatly effecting him. It was getting worse, not better. This feels like reverse survivorship bias. You probably don't hear about the guys that the rest thing works for because.. it works. After a 162 game season I'd imagine most players are going into the offseason with some kind of injury or ailment, and most of them also don't get surgery. I think you're just picking and choosing what fits your narrative based on the examples of this approach going wrong when there are likely just as many if not more cases of this working perfectly well and just not getting reported on. edit: didn't realize seamus beat me to this punch
|
|
|
Post by soxfanatic on Jan 12, 2023 5:21:07 GMT -5
Bloom might just be taking a conservative approach. If he says, "We're hoping he's back in 4 months" and it ends up being a totally normal 6 months, people will freak out. Much better to start it as, "We'll see" and then turn it into, "He'll be back by the end of June" once he's actually well into the recovery phase. Classic underpromise, overdeliver tactic
|
|
|
Post by soxfanatic on Jan 12, 2023 5:24:57 GMT -5
I don't think this point has been made on this board, but in the long run the surgery might be a blessing. If it improves the likelihood that he can actually play short stop going forward, the value of his contract increases enormously. Bite the bullet now, and hope it vastly improves your chances in 2024 and beyond.
|
|
|
Post by soxfanatic on Jan 12, 2023 7:42:15 GMT -5
Also, I assume his hitting timetable is ahead of his throwing one. What are the odds he makes an early return as a DH/PH?
|
|
|
Post by greenmonster on Jan 12, 2023 8:56:22 GMT -5
Also, I assume his hitting timetable is ahead of his throwing one. What are the odds he makes an early return as a DH/PH? Given the current makeup of the roster, if Story were to DH that would mean that one of Devers, Turner, or Casas would be on the bench. I suppose it would be possible for a day here and there but feels like Story would be better suited on a rehab assignment at that point
|
|
ematz1423
Veteran
Posts: 5,516
Member is Online
|
Post by ematz1423 on Jan 12, 2023 9:25:13 GMT -5
I don't think this point has been made on this board, but in the long run the surgery might be a blessing. If it improves the likelihood that he can actually play short stop going forward, the value of his contract increases enormously. Bite the bullet now, and hope it vastly improves your chances in 2024 and beyond. I'm right there with you, the timing is unfortunate. I'd have liked to have Story for 2nd or SS this year and it certainly hurts their 2023 team for however long he's out. On the flipside, I wasn't bullish on the Sox 2023 chances anyway so as you said in the long run him getting this surgery in what I'm predicting to be another down season isn't a bad thing to me. Hopefully the surgery takes, he comes back with the ability to play a good-great defensive SS again for the remainder of the deal or at least until Mayer is ready if Mayer indeed is the real deal. As you point out if he can play a viable SS again that would increase his value and may make the contract look like a good deal by the end of it.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,015
|
Post by nomar on Jan 12, 2023 9:48:45 GMT -5
I don't think this point has been made on this board, but in the long run the surgery might be a blessing. If it improves the likelihood that he can actually play short stop going forward, the value of his contract increases enormously. Bite the bullet now, and hope it vastly improves your chances in 2024 and beyond. I'm right there with you, the timing is unfortunate. I'd have liked to have Story for 2nd or SS this year and it certainly hurts their 2023 team for however long he's out. On the flipside, I wasn't bullish on the Sox 2023 chances anyway so as you said in the long run him getting this surgery in what I'm predicting to be another down season isn't a bad thing to me. Hopefully the surgery takes, he comes back with the ability to play a good-great defensive SS again for the remainder of the deal or at least until Mayer is ready if Mayer indeed is the real deal. As you point out if he can play a viable SS again that would increase his value and may make the contract look like a good deal by the end of it. It’s unfortunate because of our lack of depth (or anything) up the middle. I’d expect the 2023 roster to look more competitive on paper, so if I had to choose, I’d rather have Story healthy for a season with more hope.
|
|
ematz1423
Veteran
Posts: 5,516
Member is Online
|
Post by ematz1423 on Jan 12, 2023 10:19:11 GMT -5
I'm right there with you, the timing is unfortunate. I'd have liked to have Story for 2nd or SS this year and it certainly hurts their 2023 team for however long he's out. On the flipside, I wasn't bullish on the Sox 2023 chances anyway so as you said in the long run him getting this surgery in what I'm predicting to be another down season isn't a bad thing to me. Hopefully the surgery takes, he comes back with the ability to play a good-great defensive SS again for the remainder of the deal or at least until Mayer is ready if Mayer indeed is the real deal. As you point out if he can play a viable SS again that would increase his value and may make the contract look like a good deal by the end of it. It’s unfortunate because of our lack of depth (or anything) up the middle. I’d expect the 2023 roster to look more competitive on paper, so if I had to choose, I’d rather have Story healthy for a season with more hope. No doubt, don't get me wrong I wasn't rooting for him to need elbow surgery. I guess my thought is that we kind of knew that elbow surgery was a real possibility when he signed, so trying to be a little bit optimistic about it I'd rather he get it now, clean it up and hopefully fix the issue for the last 4 years of the deal since I'm already half writing this season off as another rebuilding year. To me it's certainly better he get it now then to get into a season where the Sox have a truly competitive roster and then need it during the year.
|
|
|
Post by patford on Jan 12, 2023 23:15:08 GMT -5
Given the timing of the injury what is the logic in not going ahead with TJ surgery? I understand the recovery time is somewhat shorter but as Story is likely to miss the whole season (or nearly all of it) wouldn't it be better if he had TJ surgery?
|
|
|
Post by seamus on Jan 13, 2023 10:16:34 GMT -5
Given the timing of the injury what is the logic in not going ahead with TJ surgery? I understand the recovery time is somewhat shorter but as Story is likely to miss the whole season (or nearly all of it) wouldn't it be better if he had TJ surgery? TJ surgery isn't necessarily "better" than this procedure in terms of actually solving the problem. For a long time, it was just the only real option. The goal for advancements in surgery is always to make them as minimally invasive as possible, so something that achieves the therapeutic objective without extra tinkering is the way to go. It's the whole not using an elephant gun when the fly swatter will do thing.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 13, 2023 12:26:24 GMT -5
/photo/1
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Jan 13, 2023 12:34:40 GMT -5
Well, the good news is it looks like the lower numbers are field guys, the higher pitchers. So there is that.
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Jan 13, 2023 12:46:51 GMT -5
That spreadsheet is crap. He is defining "recovery time" as how long to return to a big league game. Well, there weren't any big league games for Garrett Cooper to play in until 8 months after his surgery. He played on opening day, and before that played a full spring training schedule. Who the hell knows when he actually "recovered"
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 13, 2023 12:52:03 GMT -5
Trevor's doctor also seems to be the most experienced.
Small sample size but it seems like a reasonable starting point. I'm more inclined to believe his 6 months plus than Passan's 4 to 6 months.
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Jan 13, 2023 13:11:13 GMT -5
That spreadsheet is crap. He is defining "recovery time" as how long to return to a big league game. Well, there weren't any big league games for Garrett Cooper to play in until 8 months after his surgery. He played on opening day, and before that played a full spring training schedule. Who the hell knows when he actually "recovered" Danny Santana another example where he was supposedly ready for spring training in 2021 but set back by a foot infection, not his elbow, IIRC. EDIT: Rich Hill in 2020 another one, he pitched the week MLB was back. He was ready well before that.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 13, 2023 14:50:20 GMT -5
We always get this when this happens. Yet what percentage of guys does the rest thing actually work on? The majority just delay surgery and miss more games. Nevermind he already had rest last offseason and DL time this year. Given his exit velocity on throws I don't see the clearly manageable part, it was greatly effecting him. It was getting worse, not better. To the bolded part: no idea because we don't hear about the cases where rest is sufficient. I personally suspect that hundreds of guys could plausibly have some sort of offseason surgery to deal with some ache or pain, but rest gets the job done so it doesn't get to that point. Yes, his arm was relatively weak last season, but it wasn't impacting his play at second base and I haven't seen anything to suggest his arm was worsening over the season. It was absolutely manageable last year, and there are good defensive shortstops with weak arms (e.g., Swanson), so I think it was perfectly reasonable for continuing without surgery to be a viable option. As long as there's an alternative to surgery, I really can't fault a guy for trying it. Speaking purely from personal experience, I have a nerve issue in my hand that could potentially be treated surgically... but non-surgical treatments are good enough that the potential downsides of surgery just aren't worth it. The variables are different in Story's case, of course, but it's perfectly plausible for the analysis to have resulted in the same conclusion until very recently. Yes you do guys like Rchards and Story. The thing with him is he already tried the rest part last offseason and it didn't work. This isn’t he's just trying rest over surgery, he chose to do that two years in a row. Going from great defensive SS to 2B hurts his value. Nevermind he had his worst season with his bat of his entire career. Worst ISO, EV, hard hit %, OPS and average. So it's safe to assume it likely effected his hitting also.
|
|
|
Post by seamus on Jan 13, 2023 15:56:57 GMT -5
Setting aside that I disagree that we routinely hear about guys opting against surgery unless it doesn't work, I don't think it's fair to say that rest didn't work for Story last offseason. He played second base because he was blocked at shortstop, not because he couldn't do it anymore. I agree he had a weird season at the plate, but it's entirely speculative to blame that on his elbow. Are you also going to completely ignore that much of his season was impacted by a completely unrelated hand injury? If he stays healthy and has a hot stretch in August, his final line probably ends up much closer to his career norms. We're missing a significant amount of data on his season due to a freak injury.
|
|
shagworthy
Veteran
My neckbeard game is on point.
Posts: 1,602
|
Post by shagworthy on Jan 13, 2023 16:06:56 GMT -5
Setting aside that I disagree that we routinely hear about guys opting against surgery unless it doesn't work, I don't think it's fair to say that rest didn't work for Story last offseason. He played second base because he was blocked at shortstop, not because he couldn't do it anymore. I agree he had a weird season at the plate, but it's entirely speculative to blame that on his elbow. Are you also going to completely ignore that much of his season was impacted by a completely unrelated hand injury? If he stays healthy and has a hot stretch in August, his final line probably ends up much closer to his career norms. We're missing a significant amount of data on his season due to a freak injury. Let us also not forget how weird last offseason was. Story was signed right at the start of camp and didn't even make an appearance until later in the spring, he started behind the 8 ball from the get go, so it wasn't a surprise to me he was behind when the real games started to be played. Now, is it fair to speculate that if he was playing 2b this year he might have been able to grit it through and play with the injury? Maybe? But I don't put one ounce of blame on Story really, top down the Sox should have pivoted more rapidly once it became clear Bogey wasn't going to accept their deal, they didn't, and they got left standing in the SS musical chair game. Unlike Atlanta who quickly pulled the trigger once they thought Freeman wasn't coming back, the Sox sat on their hands.
|
|
|
Post by GyIantosca on Jan 13, 2023 17:49:09 GMT -5
How could this guy ever play shortstop again. keep him at 2b. we know the FO is crossing the days off the calender for Mayer. How long that is up his developement. Bloom putting all his chips behind the prospects. It would be nice a couple of trades to shore up everything.
The o's love our DFA'S. That's the way to win over the fans.
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Jan 21, 2023 11:07:38 GMT -5
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,015
|
Post by nomar on Jan 21, 2023 11:25:11 GMT -5
I’m playing SS in my mind too, and I’m raking. Nobody has complained about me or offered me in a theoretical trade once on this forum the entire season.
|
|
|