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Red Sox DFA Matt Barnes (1/30: traded for Richard Bleier)
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jan 31, 2023 0:16:43 GMT -5
In case it hasn’t been posted yet Watch to the end and look for the name Miahc Moolb in the list of Patreon subscribers...
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 31, 2023 1:00:15 GMT -5
This is a classic "change of scenery" trade for Barnes. If he can regain his mechanics and hence recover his control and command, he should be good. But recovering your mechanics is a brain thing, and given how strong procedural ("muscle") memories are, when you lose mechanics and can't recover them it's usually mental / psychological. Once you're aware that they're messed up, thinking about them just gets in your way.
It has to be much easier to put your past struggles out of your mind when you're playing in Miami to fans who don't know you, then playing here. Just a "fresh start" of any sort helps accomplish that.
Some folks (and most of the Boston media) will label this a meh or bad trade if Barnes end up with value comparable to Bleier (since we're paying $1M extra versus keeping him, and $1.8M extra towards the tax limit - EDIT: no, saving $1.375M, no thanks to FanGraphs!), but I don't think that comeback can happen in Boston. [Comment on 2024 option deleted -- see below.)
---- Fun with carefully selected cutoffs: There were 309 pitchers last year that had 150+ Batted Ball Events. Just 17 had a Barrel % (of all PA) less than 3.8 and a Launch Angle less than 5.4. That's being in the top 58 and top 30, respectively. The Red Sox now have 4 of the 17: Schreiber, 91st percentile Barrels, 95th Launch Angle Houck, 89th, 93rd Bleier, 86th, 93rd Bello, 83rd, 91st
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jan 31, 2023 8:04:53 GMT -5
Nice discussion a few years ago by Bleier of his cutter. Cited by the Athletic in a recent story on the trade.
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alnipper
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Post by alnipper on Jan 31, 2023 10:25:54 GMT -5
Who is the next top 40 prospect to be DFD? I feel like this should become a thread. I did like the return on Barnes, but then yesterday they DFA German? I guess MLB depth is not as important as I thought.
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Post by jmei on Jan 31, 2023 10:26:41 GMT -5
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 31, 2023 10:27:07 GMT -5
This is a classic "change of scenery" trade for Barnes. If he can regain his mechanics and hence recover his control and command, he should be good. But recovering your mechanics is a brain thing, and given how strong procedural ("muscle") memories are, when you lose mechanics and can't recover them it's usually mental / psychological. Once you're aware that they're messed up, thinking about them just gets in your way.
It has to be much easier to put your past struggles out of your mind when you're playing in Miami to fans who don't know you, then playing here. Just a "fresh start" of any sort helps accomplish that.
Some folks (and most of the Boston media) will label this a meh or bad trade if Barnes end up with value comparable to Bleier (since we're paying $1M extra versus keeping him, and $1.8M extra towards the tax limit), but I don't think that comeback can happen in Boston. And the $1.6M club option for 2024 (with nothing against the tax) can help the final accouting, too.
---- Fun with carefully selected cutoffs: There were 309 pitchers last year that had 150+ Batted Ball Events. Just 17 had a Barrel % (of all PA) less than 3.8 and a Launch Angle less than 5.4. That's being in the top 58 and top 30, respectively. The Red Sox now have 4 of the 17: Schreiber, 91st percentile Barrels, 95th Launch Angle Houck, 89th, 93rd Bleier, 86th, 93rd Bello, 83rd, 91st I agree with your main point here, but on the bolded - where are you seeing that we're paying extra towards the tax limit? I'm still seeing even with the latest reported numbers that the Sox save a little bit.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jan 31, 2023 10:30:42 GMT -5
Who is the next top 40 prospect to be DFD? I feel like this should become a thread. I did like the return on Barnes, but then yesterday they DFA German? I guess MLB depth is not as important as I thought. Anytime you DFA someone of the 40 man roster, it's automatically taking away from MLB depth, no? German wasn't going to be in Boston to start the year, so it's not like they sent 2 guys out of Boston while only bringing one in
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 31, 2023 11:08:39 GMT -5
I see a pitcher that dealt with a shoulder injury, his splits are crazy before and after. For me this only makes sense if you believe Barnes isn't going to be healthy next year. So if Barnes is very good next year I'm blaming Bloom and if he's not Bloom deserves credit.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 31, 2023 11:36:20 GMT -5
This is a classic "change of scenery" trade for Barnes. If he can regain his mechanics and hence recover his control and command, he should be good. But recovering your mechanics is a brain thing, and given how strong procedural ("muscle") memories are, when you lose mechanics and can't recover them it's usually mental / psychological. Once you're aware that they're messed up, thinking about them just gets in your way.
It has to be much easier to put your past struggles out of your mind when you're playing in Miami to fans who don't know you, then playing here. Just a "fresh start" of any sort helps accomplish that.
Some folks (and most of the Boston media) will label this a meh or bad trade if Barnes end up with value comparable to Bleier (since we're paying $1M extra versus keeping him, and $1.8M extra towards the tax limit), but I don't think that comeback can happen in Boston. And the $1.6M club option for 2024 (with nothing against the tax) can help the final accouting, too.
---- Fun with carefully selected cutoffs: There were 309 pitchers last year that had 150+ Batted Ball Events. Just 17 had a Barrel % (of all PA) less than 3.8 and a Launch Angle less than 5.4. That's being in the top 58 and top 30, respectively. The Red Sox now have 4 of the 17: Schreiber, 91st percentile Barrels, 95th Launch Angle Houck, 89th, 93rd Bleier, 86th, 93rd Bello, 83rd, 91st I agree with your main point here, but on the bolded - where are you seeing that we're paying extra towards the tax limit? I'm still seeing even with the latest reported numbers that the Sox save a little bit. Trusting FanGraphs' AAV figures!
This year's payroll is indeed going up by $1M.
But they're saving $1.375M off the tax limit.
Next year we have a $3.75M option on Bleier which will count $3.5M against the tax. The Marlins will have an $8M option on Barnes that counts $5.75M.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Jan 31, 2023 11:40:42 GMT -5
I see a pitcher that dealt with a shoulder injury, his splits are crazy before and after. For me this only makes sense if you believe Barnes isn't going to be healthy next year. So if Barnes is very good next year I'm blaming Bloom and if he's not Bloom deserves credit. Meh. I am as hard on Bloom as anyone, but I think Barnes can regain form without it being a failure on the FO’s part. I completely agree with Eric that changes in scenery can be huge. If Barnes thrives elsewhere it doesn’t mean he’d have succeeded in Boston. It is also a tough trade standard that what you send away can’t be good. You have to give up talent to get talent. Barnes is one of many middling righties on the Sox roster. They needed a lefty. Even if Barnes has a *better* year than Bleier, it could be good for the Sox who need what the latter does more than the former. It is a good trade — results might disappoint, but that doesn’t change the appropriateness of the move.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jan 31, 2023 12:21:33 GMT -5
I see a pitcher that dealt with a shoulder injury, his splits are crazy before and after. For me this only makes sense if you believe Barnes isn't going to be healthy next year. So if Barnes is very good next year I'm blaming Bloom and if he's not Bloom deserves credit. Meh. I am as hard on Bloom as anyone, but I think Barnes can regain form without it being a failure on the FO’s part. I completely agree with Eric that changes in scenery can be huge. If Barnes thrives elsewhere it doesn’t mean he’d have succeeded in Boston. It is also a tough trade standard that what you send away can’t be good. You have to give up talent to get talent. Barnes is one of many middling righties on the Sox roster. They needed a lefty. Even if Barnes has a *better* year than Bleier, it could be good for the Sox who need what the latter does more than the former. It is a good trade — results might disappoint, but that doesn’t change the appropriateness of the move. Maybe, but he has thrived in Boston. It's not like he hasn't rebounded before either. If he was limited to an injury and they saved barely anything in the process then I don't see that as much of a win. I think the performance of Bleier is going to be a factor though. My thought was to see how looked in ST and how he looked in low leverage situations to start the year unless a team was willing to pick up most of his salary. As of right now, I don't think anyone is going to regret the deal. I do get they needed a lefty and he fills that need, but I also care less if that arm is mediocre. He gave up a lot of hits and was 35 last year. Again, I don't think this will be referenced much when discussing Bloom next year, but I would disagree that Bloom gets no feedback on this transaction no matter what happens.
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Post by incandenza on Jan 31, 2023 12:34:07 GMT -5
I mean, what is the ceiling for Barnes even if he does "rebound"? Never in his career has he had a season ERA below 3.65. Though he somehow parlayed that into a $9 million/year salary somewhere along the way...
Bleier, for comparison, has only one season in his career *above* 3.55. His career ERA is 3.06.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 31, 2023 12:44:49 GMT -5
I see a pitcher that dealt with a shoulder injury, his splits are crazy before and after. For me this only makes sense if you believe Barnes isn't going to be healthy next year. So if Barnes is very good next year I'm blaming Bloom and if he's not Bloom deserves credit. Meh. I am as hard on Bloom as anyone, but I think Barnes can regain form without it being a failure on the FO’s part. I completely agree with Eric that changes in scenery can be huge. If Barnes thrives elsewhere it doesn’t mean he’d have succeeded in Boston. It is also a tough trade standard that what you send away can’t be good. You have to give up talent to get talent. Barnes is one of many middling righties on the Sox roster. They needed a lefty. Even if Barnes has a *better* year than Bleier, it could be good for the Sox who need what the latter does more than the former. It is a good trade — results might disappoint, but that doesn’t change the appropriateness of the move. 1st half 1.706 whip .784 OPS SO/W 1.17, 6.35 walks per 9 2nd half 1.235, .590, 2.22 and 3.57 walks per 9 What level of command and control are we looking for Barnes to find? What his only happened once 2021 level? He's always ran hot and cold. He got up to 9.5 strikeouts per 9 first month back, then 6.1 his last month. That screams his shoulder wasn't a 100%
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 31, 2023 12:58:16 GMT -5
Barnes last 3 full regular seasons before this injured year 1.0, 1.2 and 1.1 bwar, or on average 1.1 bwar a year. That's better than Chris Martin and his basically 9 million salary. He's a very good reliever that has good stretches of brilliance and it seems a stretch of bad every year. AL East proven, unless his shoulder isn't 100% I'm very upset he's gone. Still have some good LHP as free agents and this is a problem because he traded Josh Taylor another guy I really like when healthy. Yet that might be a good gamble.
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Post by grandsalami on Jan 31, 2023 12:59:54 GMT -5
Barnes last 3 full regular seasons before this injured year 1.0, 1.2 and 1.1 bwar, or on average 1.1 bwar a year. That's better than Chris Martin and his basically 9 million salary. He's a very good reliever that has good stretches of brilliance and it seems a stretch of bad every year. AL East proven, unless his shoulder isn't 100% I'm very upset he's gone. Still have some good LHP as free agents and this is a problem because he traded Josh Taylor another guy I really like when healthy. Yet that might be a good gamble. The Athletic (Chad Jennings) has a really good breakdown regarding the decision to DFA Barnes A small snippet theathletic.com/4124718/2023/01/25/why-red-sox-cut-matt-barnes/
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 31, 2023 13:04:28 GMT -5
Barnes last 3 full regular seasons before this injured year 1.0, 1.2 and 1.1 bwar, or on average 1.1 bwar a year. That's better than Chris Martin and his basically 9 million salary. He's a very good reliever that has good stretches of brilliance and it seems a stretch of bad every year. AL East proven, unless his shoulder isn't 100% I'm very upset he's gone. Still have some good LHP as free agents and this is a problem because he traded Josh Taylor another guy I really like when healthy. Yet that might be a good gamble. Sentiment is such a funny thing, I think if Barnes hadn't been drafted by the Red Sox there would be zero pushback to this at all. Being "upset" that an average reliever was traded for another average reliever that fits a need more is one of the most "touch grass" sentiments I've seen on a fan site in a while. Even if Barnes ends up pitching well (and it's worth noting that every projections system has Bleier being better, despite those systems having access to all the data you cherry-picked and more) it's still a perfectly defensible trade.
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Post by Foulke_In_Athol on Jan 31, 2023 13:22:05 GMT -5
Barnes last 3 full regular seasons before this injured year 1.0, 1.2 and 1.1 bwar, or on average 1.1 bwar a year. That's better than Chris Martin and his basically 9 million salary. He's a very good reliever that has good stretches of brilliance and it seems a stretch of bad every year. AL East proven, unless his shoulder isn't 100% I'm very upset he's gone. Still have some good LHP as free agents and this is a problem because he traded Josh Taylor another guy I really like when healthy. Yet that might be a good gamble. Wow you mean Barnes decline may have been injury related? I bet the sox never thought of that! His spin rate has plummeted his velocity is way down, and he can't throw strikes, the sox probably just thought all of that was bad ju-ju. If only there was some magic that would allow Boston to look insight a pitchers shoulder. Good thing we traded him, the Marlins would never look over someone before they agree to acquire him.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jan 31, 2023 13:30:56 GMT -5
Barnes last 3 full regular seasons before this injured year 1.0, 1.2 and 1.1 bwar, or on average 1.1 bwar a year. That's better than Chris Martin and his basically 9 million salary. He's a very good reliever that has good stretches of brilliance and it seems a stretch of bad every year. AL East proven, unless his shoulder isn't 100% I'm very upset he's gone. Still have some good LHP as free agents and this is a problem because he traded Josh Taylor another guy I really like when healthy. Yet that might be a good gamble. Wow you mean Barnes decline may have been injury related? I bet the sox never thought of that! His spin rate has plummeted his velocity is way down, and he can't throw strikes, the sox probably just thought all of that was bad ju-ju. If only there was some magic that would allow Boston to look insight a pitchers shoulder. Good thing we traded him, the Marlins would never look over someone before they agree to acquire him. It's a good thing the Marlins don't have a medical staff or talent evaluators.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Jan 31, 2023 13:43:11 GMT -5
Some of these Barnes defenses make me think Brasier will be much beloved if he is DFAd. I can’t recall anyone writing “oh, good, Barnes is coming in” — now he is a big loss?
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jan 31, 2023 13:50:57 GMT -5
Some of these Barnes defenses make me think Brasier will be much beloved if he is DFAd. I can’t recall anyone writing “oh, good, Barnes is coming in” — now he is a big loss? Well there was more to Barnes’ career than the last year and a half, but anyone expecting much from him here this year was fooling themself. His appearances (even his best ones) in 2022 were not the same.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 31, 2023 13:52:06 GMT -5
Some of these Barnes defenses make me think Brasier will be much beloved if he is DFAd. I can’t recall anyone writing “oh, good, Barnes is coming in” — now he is a big loss? Well there was more to Barnes’ career than the last year and a half You can simultaneously appreciate Barnes' contributions on past Sox teams while also acknowledging that he's not a good reliever anymore and that the deal makes sense. It is, truly, not that hard.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jan 31, 2023 13:52:41 GMT -5
Well there was more to Barnes’ career than the last year and a half You can simultaneously appreciate Barnes' contributions on past Sox teams while also acknowledging that he's not a good reliever anymore and that the deal makes sense. It is, truly, not that hard. 100%
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jan 31, 2023 14:01:15 GMT -5
I feel the best way to evaluate a trade is to discuss it from both sides. What are they looking for and why did they make it. I doubt the Marlins were thinking, "we want a worse player for more money. Ideally, they'll have injury problems too".
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Post by incandenza on Jan 31, 2023 14:04:16 GMT -5
I feel the best way to evaluate a trade is to discuss it from both sides. What are they looking for and why did they make it. I doubt the Marlins were thinking, "we want a worse player for more money. Ideally, they'll have injury problems too". The Marlins had a bunch of lefties and needed a righty. The Red Sox had a bunch of righties and needed a lefty.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jan 31, 2023 14:14:48 GMT -5
I feel the best way to evaluate a trade is to discuss it from both sides. What are they looking for and why did they make it. I doubt the Marlins were thinking, "we want a worse player for more money. Ideally, they'll have injury problems too". The Marlins had a bunch of lefties and needed a righty. The Red Sox had a bunch of righties and needed a lefty. And that to me is a fair answer if both teams feel it's going to be equivocal performances from the right and left side.
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