2023 Trade Deadline Thread

I love JT for this team. LOVE-heart and soul of the team type of guy.

Unless I got him to sign an extension, there is zero way I don't trade him for Cabrera. I bet they could have gotten Cabrera and Eder based on how things panned out with them optioning Cabrera ans trading Eder.

We could have sent JT and Blaze Jordan for 3B, which is obviously what they wanted JT for, and he would have been huge for them, with a LT control replacement with power behind. We could have had Cabrera and Eder, which would have been franchise altering for us. And if we needed to throw in some other position prospect, we could have done that too (not Mayer, Bleis, Anthony, Gonzalez, Perales -- who they obviously would not have required).

You have to be flexible sometimes when what you really need is staring you in the face. Last year, Bloom really messed up at the deadline. This year his active moves were ok. What he may have passed up on is not ok, if he truly had the chance to, but didn't have the guts to trade an aging veteran, clubhouse-making guy to an NL team who really needed him at peak value when we have a young core pushing to improve that desperately needs LT controllable pitching. Duvall would still have been around for vet leadership and RH power bat. 2B is not killing us and Urias could be a very good solution there (or not, but ok either way). What is killing us is an injury prone SP staff that is over-taxing the bullpen. And having JT to "back up" Devers and Casas (now that Casas has come into his own) has become an embarassment of riches -- which again I love -- but is not necessary to win.

Duvall can also play 1B. This was a mistake if it was on the table.

And again -- cannot overstate how much I love JT on this team. But sometimes you have to make a baseball trade and deal from strength (offense) to get what you need (pitching). And you need to be leader enough to go into that clubhouse and tell the guys you love them and that is why you got them what they needed -- that it hurts, but it was the right move. And a real leader can do that and rally the clubhouse behind it.

For those of you with your trade value calculators out. JT value is above what your calc says. He is exactly what Miami needed. So your "overpay" Cabrera for Turner calc is wrong. You can't find JT "winner" attributes in your FV calculator, and both front offices know that, which is why he likely was valued incredibly highly at the deadline and should have been. Multiple-time WS winner, who comes through over and over in the clutch at the biggest position of need for the Marlins (3B). No brainer for them to overpay. It's actually exectly the correct time to "overpay" for the Marlins.

We had the scarcity asset chip and failed to cash it in. That's what makes for underperforming franchises long term.

Bloom does a lot that is right. But he is more an analyst than a decision-maker. His LT vision is solid, but his under pressure decision-making is poor. Portfolio managers lose their jobs if they don't mature quickly enough out of the maturation phase he is in.

One more year -- he has to mature as a decision-maker and show he knows how to manage the assets he brings in and cultivates (both young guys and vets). I am cheering him on and want to see him succeed. But he needs to mature and show he can be a top executive and not just head of player development. When another executive needs to push their chips in and go for it (Ng - correctly seeing the window to go for it) -- you need to cash in -- and it would not have cost us the opportunity to potentially win this year, while substantially improving our chances to win repeatedly long term.

Largely standing pat at the trade deadline is certainly defensible given the teams position in the standings and a misalignment on potential deals. I also tend to think that retaining high level prospects and expecting returning players to supplemental the team down the stretch is reasonable given the quality of the players returning make sense, but it's a very high risk, high reward strategy.

Bloom does seem to have a couple weaknesses.

1) Organizational roster management. As Ian talked about on the podcast, there are a lot of marginally valuable pieces that will either not be moved soon enough to convert their value or to simply avoid losing them for nothing given the roster crunch/Rule 5 machinations.

2) The Buy/Sell approach. If you truly believe that your window isn't this season, then selling to put a better team forward in 2024 has to be something you commit to do regardless of the fan/media reaction. You have your franchise player locked up long term and young talent under control. Buying and selling for marginal upgrades of good but not great prospects has its place but as a consistent pattern it only leads to more of a roster glut.

While you can't leave any stone unturned if you're a GM, I agree trading Turner would have been a total punt. As you said he's the heartbeat of the team right now it seems. If they had dealt Turner I'd have asked why not just deal Paxton, Duvall and anyone else not bolted down on the roster and play for 2024. 

Your opinion on these players is not relevant to what would have gotten a transaction done though. Clearly the Guardians do not think Manzardo is likely to be non tendered in a few years, and if they do prefer him over Yorke and Rafaela there are perfectly valid reasons for that.

Idk man, some of these small market teams in the midwest seem to sell even when they’re on the cusp of a playoff bid quite a bit. Would be an interesting thing to look into.

Could not agree more. He became the de facto clubhouse leader and captain within a month being in Boston. 

While I also feel that James Paxton would have been what everyone has been terming a "white flag" for the season, I don't even think the two (Turner and Paxton) are in the same realm in terms of ramifications for this squad and young players, who Turner has mentored and also led by example by absolutely mashing the baseball this last month and a half. Paxton is a great dude by all accounts, has gone through so much to get back and be the veteran anchor of this rotation, but he only pitches once every fifth day.. If the Dodgers offered two top-100 prospects for him (which I HIGHLY doubt they did), I can see why people might be frustrated that he's still in Boston. But again, I think Paxton gives the Sox a major shot at passing the Blue Jays, getting into that 3rd Wild Card, and getting the chance to play the Twins in a 3 game series. Wouldn't that be fun? 

Also, trading Adam Duvall.. again, not even close to comparable to Justin Turner. But it's not like you were likely to get more than a couple top-20 to 30 Braves prospects if that's the team you worked out a deal with. There has to be a cost-benefit analysis for Bloom, where you have what is now arguably the deepest farm system in baseball. The Sox rank #3 in FanGraphs in terms of farm systems, but they have less elite-tier prospects (FV) than a bunch of the teams around them.


Side Note: Does everyone remember when the JT got absolutely bashed in the face with a baseball in spring training, and was back in the box like three days later? 

2.9 bwar over his last 31 starts.

Best/most relaxed interview I've ever heard with Chaim Bloom. Highly recommend

SABR stats are funny to me sometimes certainly for pitchers anyway. His MLB career he has a 4.22 ERA, 4.94 FIP and 4.34 xFIP good for a .5 fWAR in 175 inninigs. He has excellent stuff with 10.08 K/9 but no control with a 5.35 BB/9. I have a hard time gauging how good Cabrera really is, if he can ever harness his control then he should be a very good pitcher. If not well he's probably a bullpen arm or out of the league in a few years. 

Cease is good but sometimes I think he gets talked about like he's better than he is. His control is a bit spotty. Dont get me wrong. If be happy yo have him but I wouldnt be eager to clear out top prospects for him.

Either way if you figure they have a big 3 of Sale, Bello, and Paxton, who when healthy are clearly front line starters and not hybrid starters who are probably better off in the pen, it's probably advisable, especially given Sale's health history, to have four front liners.

The Sox should be able to go well over the limit next year and between Yamamoto, NOLA, Urias, and Giolito should be able to add one of those guys.

But if you lose Paxton, then all you've done is trade Paxton for say Nola, which could be a good thing, especially if it were Yamamoto, but then you're still in a situation of Sale, Bello, Paxton replacement and 2 hybrid starters.

I'd love to have Paxton back via QO, although I do think given the state of pitching need hed be able to find a multi year deal elsewhere, but even if he came back they need to add another starter.

All of this is my way of saying I do see the Sox adding a 4th true starter, but I don't see them signing teo big pitching free agents. I just dont see them spending 40 - 50 annually on two 2 starting additions

I think Paxton is gone after this year and I'm not even 100% certain he gets a QO. I'm certain they have their eyes on Yamamoto, but I'm far less certain that they actually sign him.

Either way I strongly feel that other front line starter is coming via trade and Cease is certainly a Decenber/January trade candidate. Might not be Cease, but I do think Bloom will finally make a trade for a young starter using his system.

Yamamoto (signing), and Logan Gilbert (trade, for Houck and Verdugo, and non-top 5 prospects). A couple higher-quality lefties for the bullpen. Maybe one legitimate veteran 2nd baseman, medium cost and short term deal, since Mayer may take longer than expected. Turner picks up his option and continues to be the de facto captain. Rafaela takes Verdugo's spot in RF and worst comes to worst he's a below average hitter in what would already be a pretty stacked lineup.

Don't think there would be any reason that's undoable or costs you an absurd amount of money. I think that makes you the favorite in the AL East, and I'm hoping it's along the lines of what happens.