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2023 Trade Deadline Thread
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Post by redsoxpride34 on Aug 4, 2023 10:32:02 GMT -5
For those claiming that trading Turner would have been viewed as punting on the season, are you forgetting that Trevor Story is almost back? Turner has hit well no doubt, but his game/impact is one dimensional. He's a mediocre defender and a slow base runner. So its really just his bat which limits his impact. Its also unlikely his he continues to produce at this level offensively the rest of the way. Once Story is back, Turner should also slide down in the batting order. The top 6 should be Duran, Verdugo, Devers, Story, Yoshida, Casas. I'd rather have say Rafaella in CF and Yoshida at DH with Cabrera in the rotation than Turner at DH, Yoshida in LF and the current rotation.
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Post by remmartin34 on Aug 4, 2023 10:35:29 GMT -5
For those claiming that trading Turner would have been viewed as punting on the season, are you forgetting that Trevor Story is almost back? Turner has hit well no doubt, but his game/impact is one dimensional. He's a mediocre defender and a slow base runner. So its really just his bat which limits his impact. Its also unlikely his he continues to produce at this level offensively the rest of the way. Once Story is back, Turner should also slide down in the batting order. The top 6 should be Duran, Verdugo, Devers, Story, Yoshida, Casas. I'd rather have say Rafaella in CF and Yoshida at DH with Cabrera in the rotation than Turner at DH, Yoshida in LF and the current rotation. Ayyyy.. do you watch games or listen to the broadcasts?
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Post by e on Aug 4, 2023 10:36:04 GMT -5
For those claiming that trading Turner would have been viewed as punting on the season, are you forgetting that Trevor Story is almost back? Turner has hit well no doubt, but his game/impact is one dimensional. He's a mediocre defender and a slow base runner. So its really just his bat which limits his impact. Its also unlikely his he continues to produce at this level offensively the rest of the way. Once Story is back, Turner should also slide down in the batting order. The top 6 should be Duran, Verdugo, Devers, Story, Yoshida, Casas. I'd rather have say Rafaella in CF and Yoshida at DH with Cabrera in the rotation than Turner at DH, Yoshida in LF and the current rotation. I think it has less to do with his play on the field, and more related to how much of a hit it would be to the morale of the clubhouse. We saw how poorly the Vazquez trade was received last year, it almost felt like the team gave up after that. Moving Turner would likely have a similar effect, and arguably even a bigger one.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 4, 2023 10:44:22 GMT -5
2.9 bwar over his last 31 starts. SABR stats are funny to me sometimes certainly for pitchers anyway. His MLB career he has a 4.22 ERA, 4.94 FIP and 4.34 xFIP good for a .5 fWAR in 175 inninigs. He has excellent stuff with 10.08 K/9 but no control with a 5.35 BB/9. I have a hard time gauging how good Cabrera really is, if he can ever harness his control then he should be a very good pitcher. If not well he's probably a bullpen arm or out of the league in a few years. That ERA is exactly league average, which given the walks is darn good. Yeah it's a gamble, you don't get a guy with his controllable years and stuff without question marks without it costing half the farm. I take that gamble every day for a 38 year old player, especially when you have legit well above average bats to take his spot and an elite prospect cooking in AAA. If he gets back to last years 4.1 walk rate, he's a very valuable player and helps the team for years.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 4, 2023 10:45:42 GMT -5
For those claiming that trading Turner would have been viewed as punting on the season, are you forgetting that Trevor Story is almost back? Turner has hit well no doubt, but his game/impact is one dimensional. He's a mediocre defender and a slow base runner. So its really just his bat which limits his impact. Its also unlikely his he continues to produce at this level offensively the rest of the way. Once Story is back, Turner should also slide down in the batting order. The top 6 should be Duran, Verdugo, Devers, Story, Yoshida, Casas. I'd rather have say Rafaella in CF and Yoshida at DH with Cabrera in the rotation than Turner at DH, Yoshida in LF and the current rotation. I think it has less to do with his play on the field, and more related to how much of a hit it would be to the morale of the clubhouse. We saw how poorly the Vazquez trade was received last year, it almost felt like the team gave up after that. Moving Turner would likely have a similar effect, and arguably even a bigger one. Is that really a fair comp? You traded him for prospects, not a major league pitcher when you need pitching.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 4, 2023 10:48:56 GMT -5
For those claiming that trading Turner would have been viewed as punting on the season, are you forgetting that Trevor Story is almost back? Turner has hit well no doubt, but his game/impact is one dimensional. He's a mediocre defender and a slow base runner. So its really just his bat which limits his impact. Its also unlikely his he continues to produce at this level offensively the rest of the way. Once Story is back, Turner should also slide down in the batting order. The top 6 should be Duran, Verdugo, Devers, Story, Yoshida, Casas. I'd rather have say Rafaella in CF and Yoshida at DH with Cabrera in the rotation than Turner at DH, Yoshida in LF and the current rotation. I think it has less to do with his play on the field, and more related to how much of a hit it would be to the morale of the clubhouse. We saw how poorly the Vazquez trade was received last year, it almost felt like the team gave up after that. Moving Turner would likely have a similar effect, and arguably even a bigger one. If the team gave up last season because Bloom made an upgrade at C at the trade deadline then I'm not sure why Cora wasn't fired last offseason. But I don't actually believe they were that pathetic and immature a group; I think their pitchers were just injured and they played poorly.
The reason to not trade Turner is that he's a good player and the team is trying to win. Also, Story's return has nothing to do with Turner; Turner is a better hitter and there's no positional overlap between the two. Also too, I think some people are setting unrealistic expectations for Story's bat; he has a 99 wRC+ since 2021 and he's on the wrong side of 30. His value is mainly on defense: he's Yu Chang but with (hopefully) average rather than terrible offense. That's a valuable player, but it's got like no overlap at all with Turner's skill set.
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Post by e on Aug 4, 2023 10:52:26 GMT -5
I think it has less to do with his play on the field, and more related to how much of a hit it would be to the morale of the clubhouse. We saw how poorly the Vazquez trade was received last year, it almost felt like the team gave up after that. Moving Turner would likely have a similar effect, and arguably even a bigger one. Is that really a fair comp? You traded him for prospects, not a major league pitcher when you need pitching. In terms of clubhouse presence, I think that's a pretty fair comp. Everyone raves about the presence that Turner has brought to this team. Cora was interviewed on MLB Network last week and talked about how amazing he has been within the clubhouse. He went further and says he's gotten to a point where he'll bring Turner in on why he makes certain in-game decisions because he believes he'll be a manager once he retires. Also on the prospects vs major league pitcher comment: Cabrera has struggled a ton this year and is not even on the MLB roster currently. So even though he may not be a "prospect" anymore, he sure isn't a slam dunk impact starter. Just to be clear, if the Marlins offered me Cabrera for Turner, I'd accept it instantly. I really like Cabrera and think he could turn into something. But I understand how much of a negative impact it would have on the clubhouse, to the point they may feel the front office was punting on the season.
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Post by e on Aug 4, 2023 10:58:36 GMT -5
I think it has less to do with his play on the field, and more related to how much of a hit it would be to the morale of the clubhouse. We saw how poorly the Vazquez trade was received last year, it almost felt like the team gave up after that. Moving Turner would likely have a similar effect, and arguably even a bigger one. If the team gave up last season because Bloom made an upgrade at C at the trade deadline then I'm not sure why Cora wasn't fired last offseason. But I don't actually believe they were that pathetic and immature a group; I think their pitchers were just injured and they played poorly.
The reason to not trade Turner is that he's a good player and the team is trying to win. Also, Story's return has nothing to do with Turner; Turner is a better hitter and there's no positional overlap between the two. Also too, I think some people are setting unrealistic expectations for Story's bat; he has a 99 wRC+ since 2021 and he's on the wrong side of 30. His value is mainly on defense: he's Yu Chang but with (hopefully) average rather than terrible offense. That's a valuable player, but it's got like no overlap at all with Turner's skill set.
I don't think they were immature or pathetic, but you can read many articles and comments from players(Xander) who questioned the move and felt like they got nothing in return. Also I don't know if you're trying to rehash the whole buy sell deadline last year, but I've consistently said I liked last years deadline overall. So the whole first two sentences feel out of place and unnecessary to the point of my post. Also I never said Turner was not valuable on the field, was just pointing out how trading a DH can make many feel like the season is being punted on due to off the field reasons.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 4, 2023 11:09:00 GMT -5
If the team gave up last season because Bloom made an upgrade at C at the trade deadline then I'm not sure why Cora wasn't fired last offseason. But I don't actually believe they were that pathetic and immature a group; I think their pitchers were just injured and they played poorly.
The reason to not trade Turner is that he's a good player and the team is trying to win. Also, Story's return has nothing to do with Turner; Turner is a better hitter and there's no positional overlap between the two. Also too, I think some people are setting unrealistic expectations for Story's bat; he has a 99 wRC+ since 2021 and he's on the wrong side of 30. His value is mainly on defense: he's Yu Chang but with (hopefully) average rather than terrible offense. That's a valuable player, but it's got like no overlap at all with Turner's skill set.
I don't think they were immature or pathetic, but you can read many articles and comments from players(Xander) who questioned the move and felt like they got nothing in return. Also I don't know if you're trying to rehash the whole buy sell deadline last year, but I've consistently said I liked last years deadline overall. So the whole first two sentences feel out of place and unnecessary to my post. Also I never said Turner was not valuable on the field, was just pointing out how trading a DH can make many feel like the season is being punted on due to off the field reasons. My points about Turner were responding to the parts of redsoxpride34's comment that I bolded. My points about last season were just responding to the part of your comment I bolded. I don't mean to disagree with your broader point that Turner has a lot of value for this year's team; I'd only say that keeping him is more than defensible solely for on-the-field reasons, and the leadership/clubhouse stuff is just a bonus (though it's always sort of a hazy concept that's hard for any of us to judge from the outside).
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 4, 2023 11:27:47 GMT -5
Is that really a fair comp? You traded him for prospects, not a major league pitcher when you need pitching. In terms of clubhouse presence, I think that's a pretty fair comp. Everyone raves about the presence that Turner has brought to this team. Cora was interviewed on MLB Network last week and talked about how amazing he has been within the clubhouse. He went further and says he's gotten to a point where he'll bring Turner in on why he makes certain in-game decisions because he believes he'll be a manager once he retires. Also on the prospects vs major league pitcher comment: Cabrera has struggled a ton this year and is not even on the MLB roster currently. So even though he may not be a "prospect" anymore, he sure isn't a slam dunk impact starter. Just to be clear, if the Marlins offered me Cabrera for Turner, I'd accept it instantly. I really like Cabrera and think he could turn into something. But I understand how much of a negative impact it would have on the clubhouse, to the point they may feel the front office was punting on the season. The Marlins have Perez in minors also and he's been lights out. That team is loaded with young pitchers. Bloom we need controllable pitchers, Devers we need pitching. You have 4 Starting level OF with good bats and top prospect killing it in AAA. Story on the way, Urais was also traded for. If the team thinks that's punting, then we likely have the wrong mix of players. I can understand being disappointed, yet that can change with the engery an electric prospect can bring and we really need an upgrade on D.
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Post by pappyman99 on Aug 4, 2023 11:46:53 GMT -5
We don’t actually know what offer there was,
But I would have for sure traded 2 months of Turner for Cabrera. Cabrera is an ace if he ever gets to a 3.0 BB/9 or lower.
But not sure why we assume that was the deal in the table
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Post by e on Aug 4, 2023 11:54:23 GMT -5
In terms of clubhouse presence, I think that's a pretty fair comp. Everyone raves about the presence that Turner has brought to this team. Cora was interviewed on MLB Network last week and talked about how amazing he has been within the clubhouse. He went further and says he's gotten to a point where he'll bring Turner in on why he makes certain in-game decisions because he believes he'll be a manager once he retires. Also on the prospects vs major league pitcher comment: Cabrera has struggled a ton this year and is not even on the MLB roster currently. So even though he may not be a "prospect" anymore, he sure isn't a slam dunk impact starter. Just to be clear, if the Marlins offered me Cabrera for Turner, I'd accept it instantly. I really like Cabrera and think he could turn into something. But I understand how much of a negative impact it would have on the clubhouse, to the point they may feel the front office was punting on the season. The Marlins have Perez in minors also and he's been lights out. That team is loaded with young pitchers. Bloom we need controllable pitchers, Devers we need pitching. You have 4 Starting level OF with good bats and top prospect killing it in AAA. Story on the way, Urais was also traded for. If the team thinks that's punting, then we likely have the wrong mix of players. I can understand being disappointed, yet that can change with the engery an electric prospect can bring and we really need an upgrade on D. He's in the minors because they are managing his innings though, unrelated to his performance. I really don't disagree with you, one of the Marlins' young pitchers could be a fantastic fit for this team. Wouldn't be surprised if the restart talks in the offseason. I'm just saying from a clubhouse optics standpoint, the move could be viewed negatively. We can't measure that exactly, but I'm sure that is something that the front office weighed while talking to the Marlins about Turner. Also you do lose a 126 wRC+ DH in Turner, which I think could be a survivable loss with pitching coming back and improved defense with Yoshida at DH. But super big if and very risky. Factoring in any clubhouse dynamics that come along with it makes it a very tough loss.
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Post by remmartin34 on Aug 4, 2023 12:07:42 GMT -5
We don’t actually know what offer there was, But I would have for sure traded 2 months of Turner for Cabrera. Cabrera is an ace if he ever gets to a 3.0 BB/9 or lower. But not sure why we assume that was the deal in the table I would bet all of the very little money I have that the deal was not Cabrera for Turner, straight up. Cabrera is a 25 year old pitcher who was a top-50 prospect prior to coming up for his first full season in 2022 (injuries aside), who put up a 3.01 ERA and 1.07 WHIP that doesn't even hit ARBITRATION until 2026. I don't need to be reminded of the FIP and some other key metrics, I know they're quite poor. But his best stuff is that of a #1A/2, and his absolute worst outcome is probably a #4. Regardless of how high JT's stock is right now (tangibly, intangibly), I'd wager two top-10 Red Sox would have been part of the package. And I'd say no to that every day.
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Post by Jimmy on Aug 4, 2023 13:11:51 GMT -5
Trading Turner would’ve been the biggest punt on a season a team that close to the playoffs has ever made. Not only is he arguably their best hitter, but he’s the heartbeat of the team. While you can't leave any stone unturned if you're a GM, I agree trading Turner would have been a total punt. As you said he's the heartbeat of the team right now it seems. If they had dealt Turner I'd have asked why not just deal Paxton, Duvall and anyone else not bolted down on the roster and play for 2024. Is it a total punt if you’re adding Cabrera and also get to optimize the defensive alignment? Yoshi to DH improves the defense in exchange for downgrading a bat from Turner to (for arguments sake) Duvall. I won’t say Cabrera to the rotation is a guaranteed upgrade, but in the context of this season only it’s a high volatility move and frankly with where the team is at this year, I think it’s fine (if not shrewd) to shoot for that upside. Net net it’s probably a hit to this years team but adds some upside on the top end of outcomes and sets you up long term (depending on which prospects would have been sent to MIA).
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Post by chaimtime on Aug 4, 2023 13:21:06 GMT -5
Listening to the podcast, one thing that I’ve been wondering for a little while is just how much those Rule 5-eligible guys are actually worth on the market. I don’t know which pieces moved at the deadline were in the same situation, but to me it seems like those guys wouldn’t be all that attractive to another team.
Like, is Brainer Bonaci so exciting a prospect that you’d take him over a less well-known prospect who won’t be at risk of leaving for nothing after the season if he’s not added to the 40-man? Given that they can’t seem to get anything at all for Dalbec, it seems like teams value a 40-man spot pretty highly.
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Post by seamus on Aug 4, 2023 13:31:23 GMT -5
Listening to the podcast, one thing that I’ve been wondering for a little while is just how much those Rule 5-eligible guys are actually worth on the market. I don’t know which pieces moved at the deadline were in the same situation, but to me it seems like those guys wouldn’t be all that attractive to another team. Like, is Brainer Bonaci so exciting a prospect that you’d take him over a less well-known prospect who won’t be at risk of leaving for nothing after the season if he’s not added to the 40-man? Given that they can’t seem to get anything at all for Dalbec, it seems like teams value a 40-man spot pretty highly. I've been wondering the same thing. Throw in the domestic reserve limit (which is coming down, I believe?) and I think teams are probably more hesitant to take on marginal guys than maybe they used to be. Given a choice, most teams would probably prefer their own marginal guys over another team's simply because they'll already have more information. Not saying that the Sox weren't too passive in terms of making trades (though I'm personally fine with riding with the current team, which has been one of the best in baseball for a good stretch of the season and probably gets better in the next 2-3 weeks), but I don't know how much value they really could have gotten out of fringy Rule 5 guys. One of their better ones yielded Luis Urias, which was a great move, but that was very much context-dependent on his weird year and Milwaukee being owned by Scrooge McDuck.
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Post by digit on Aug 4, 2023 16:26:09 GMT -5
Scrooge McDuck is 1000 times smarter than that. It'd be more like Flintheart Glomgold.
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Post by nonothing on Aug 6, 2023 6:50:24 GMT -5
Listening to the podcast, one thing that I’ve been wondering for a little while is just how much those Rule 5-eligible guys are actually worth on the market. I don’t know which pieces moved at the deadline were in the same situation, but to me it seems like those guys wouldn’t be all that attractive to another team. Like, is Brainer Bonaci so exciting a prospect that you’d take him over a less well-known prospect who won’t be at risk of leaving for nothing after the season if he’s not added to the 40-man? Given that they can’t seem to get anything at all for Dalbec, it seems like teams value a 40-man spot pretty highly. I like Bonaci, but nobody is going to draft him in Rule 5. You can't stash an A+ ball position player all year. He doesn't have Noah Song upside. I don't see Bonaci's R5 status playing in. Also, we have guys like Jordan and Hickey who are not R5 eligible who are tradeable. Finally, we added 2 guys from LA that need to be rostered for our bullpen - so we must not be so worried about the spots for our team. I do agree R5 protection is a significant issue driving who is traded this time of year, but it isn't maybe quite as big a deal as some are making it out to be. Blalock was not gonna get selected in R5 this December either. Different topic, but they really should change R5 years for foreign signed players. It is not fair to them to need to be on roster so quickly given so many sign at 16. They should have a 3rd category for players signed at 16 that gives 6 yrs.
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Post by nonothing on Aug 6, 2023 7:00:47 GMT -5
Trading Turner would’ve been the biggest punt on a season a team that close to the playoffs has ever made. Not only is he arguably their best hitter, but he’s the heartbeat of the team. Nomar?
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Post by nonothing on Aug 6, 2023 7:12:02 GMT -5
Manzardo is likely to be a non-tender candidate in his arb years, assuming he gets there. Yorke could be nothing, but at least hits well for his position. Undersized 1B struggling with bat is nowhere near value of Rafaela. Full stop. No comparison. Rafaela's floor is GG caliber CF who struggles to get on-base. Manzardo's floor is sitting at home on a couch. Rafaela's ceiling is perennial GG winner/.300 hitter. Manzardo's ceiling is? Does somebody know if it is as high as Kyle Schwarber? Or is his ceiling Dan Vogelbach? Your opinion on these players is not relevant to what would have gotten a transaction done though. Clearly the Guardians do not think Manzardo is likely to be non tendered in a few years, and if they do prefer him over Yorke and Rafaela there are perfectly valid reasons for that. It is true that none of our opinions matter for what would have gotten any particular trade done. It is also true that the history of undersized 1Bs is that they hit some HRs early on (if they are good enough to stick), they get arb raises that are worth too much, and teams often dump them during arb years, so they fail to get full value from them. It is also nearly always (maybe always) true that a team can pick up one of these guys in the offseason for $5M or less. So yeah - the Guardians may want a young 1B who they don't have to pay $4M, but I am sure they would rather have an OF who can actually play defense and hit. They might prefer a different player from another team than Rafaela or not -- though I would not imagine Rafaela would have been offered for Civale. The Guardians have a very smart front office. If we offered more value, they would have taken it. But I doubt we offered Rafaela for Civale. Their younger, more control pitchers may have been priced too high for us, but I suspect we could get one if we dangled enough quantity, even if laying off the guys most of us deem unwise to trade, because CLE needs a lot of bats (like we need pitching), and they would take them/value them at multiple levels of their system because they are not in win now mode. To be clear -- I would trade Rafaela for nearly nobody. But a potential ace becomes a maybe. Other than that, I would not trade Rafaela. The value of his defense and ability to run bases are sufficient to roster on a team with a good lineup even if he isn't a league avg bat (though I think he may well hit in the bigs just fine).
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 16,000
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Post by cdj on Aug 6, 2023 8:08:59 GMT -5
Trading Turner would’ve been the biggest punt on a season a team that close to the playoffs has ever made. Not only is he arguably their best hitter, but he’s the heartbeat of the team. Nomar? Nomar was not the heartbeat of that 2004 team, as a matter of fact he seemed pretty disgruntled in his last stretch here
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Post by bigmarty58 on Aug 6, 2023 8:14:45 GMT -5
Boy we really could have used a starter...
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Post by cba82 on Aug 6, 2023 8:16:32 GMT -5
Glad we didn’t trade for Tim Anderson, as one poster had suggested.
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Post by carmenfanzone on Aug 6, 2023 8:59:39 GMT -5
Boy we really could have used a starter... Totally agree and said so before the deadline, but even I have to admit that over the last week the main problem has be an inability to score runs. Also, the new second baseman, although it is obviously very early, looks better than I thought he would. He may be league average t second while Arroyo was a step below league average. So I have to give the front office credit for getting him and for getting something for Kiké. But yeah, we could have used a starter.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 6, 2023 9:18:01 GMT -5
Nomar was not the heartbeat of that 2004 team, as a matter of fact he seemed pretty disgruntled in his last stretch here I was at that game in NYC when Nomar "wouldn't play" and Pokey Reese started at SS. It was the "Jeter catch" game, which was a media-created fraud. Reece had a superior catch in the same game. Jeter caught the ball on the field then ran into the stands. Pokey dove into the stands then caught the ball while Yankee fans were trying to swat it away. But NYY won and the NY media canonized Jeter. Again.
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