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Post by keninten on Sept 12, 2024 21:36:50 GMT -5
Hmmm. Is Grissom getting recalled? Is Marcelo more injured than we know? Very happy for Mr. Helium but this one is curious. Grissom is quickly turning the page on a down year riddled with injuries and has quietly reemerged onto the scene again. Woo Sox on TV tonight and they flashed his numbers for the past month plus and his OPS was around .845 with 5 homeruns including 2 yesterday. Also mentioned that Chase Meidroth (anyone remember Gary Cecchini?) leads all the minors with 102 walks the only question is is his lack of power at the majors going to have pitchers attacking him to the point where they major concern is a single, his first at bat ended with a warning track flyout appropriately enough. Anthony walked on 4 pitches and eventually was knocked in with a single by Grissom. A tangent question I'll throw out there, yes Devers has played better at third this year but he still was at best average, he'll be 28 before October is over so how many years does he realistically have at third? Two? He's likely heading eventually to DH, could he ever play first? Ideally he'd DH and back-up the corners in the IF. After this season I`d like to see Devers at 1st. I don`t think he looks smooth at 3rd at all. Casas could fetch some pretty good pitching.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 12, 2024 21:55:07 GMT -5
Grissom is quickly turning the page on a down year riddled with injuries and has quietly reemerged onto the scene again. Woo Sox on TV tonight and they flashed his numbers for the past month plus and his OPS was around .845 with 5 homeruns including 2 yesterday. Also mentioned that Chase Meidroth (anyone remember Gary Cecchini?) leads all the minors with 102 walks the only question is is his lack of power at the majors going to have pitchers attacking him to the point where they major concern is a single, his first at bat ended with a warning track flyout appropriately enough. Anthony walked on 4 pitches and eventually was knocked in with a single by Grissom. A tangent question I'll throw out there, yes Devers has played better at third this year but he still was at best average, he'll be 28 before October is over so how many years does he realistically have at third? Two? He's likely heading eventually to DH, could he ever play first? Ideally he'd DH and back-up the corners in the IF. After this season I`d like to see Devers at 1st. I don`t think he looks smooth at 3rd at all. Casas could fetch some pretty good pitching. Provocative thought. I'm not sure Devers can at least not yet AND I don't like the timing of moving Casas after he missed so much time this year, as his perceived value would not be as high as it could be, thus we'd not get the maximum value we could get in a trade with him. It would make more sense to re-visit this after next season when Casas likely puts it all together and increasing his overall return value in any potential trade. I'm not sure I agree or even disagree but I think it would be prudent to wait a year before revisiting this.
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Post by keninten on Sept 12, 2024 23:19:17 GMT -5
After this season I`d like to see Devers at 1st. I don`t think he looks smooth at 3rd at all. Casas could fetch some pretty good pitching. Provocative thought. I'm not sure Devers can at least not yet AND I don't like the timing of moving Casas after he missed so much time this year, as his perceived value would not be as high as it could be, thus we'd not get the maximum value we could get in a trade with him. It would make more sense to re-visit this after next season when Casas likely puts it all together and increasing his overall return value in any potential trade. I'm not sure I agree or even disagree but I think it would be prudent to wait a year before revisiting this. That makes more sense. Should they see what he can do at 1st next spring. Maybe have him work at it thru the winter. Mostly footwork and picks. And getting the hammys stretched out.
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Post by LoneStarSox on Sept 12, 2024 23:45:46 GMT -5
Provocative thought. I'm not sure Devers can at least not yet AND I don't like the timing of moving Casas after he missed so much time this year, as his perceived value would not be as high as it could be, thus we'd not get the maximum value we could get in a trade with him. It would make more sense to re-visit this after next season when Casas likely puts it all together and increasing his overall return value in any potential trade. I'm not sure I agree or even disagree but I think it would be prudent to wait a year before revisiting this. That makes more sense. Should they see what he can do at 1st next spring. Maybe have him work at it thru the winter. Mostly footwork and picks. And getting the hammys stretched out. we’ve been in the Kristian Campbell thread this whole time
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Post by 0ap0 on Sept 13, 2024 8:06:45 GMT -5
The real Campbell is the 1st-basemen you've made along the way.
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Post by nonothing on Sept 13, 2024 10:45:41 GMT -5
After this season I`d like to see Devers at 1st. I don`t think he looks smooth at 3rd at all. Casas could fetch some pretty good pitching. Provocative thought. I'm not sure Devers can at least not yet AND I don't like the timing of moving Casas after he missed so much time this year, as his perceived value would not be as high as it could be, thus we'd not get the maximum value we could get in a trade with him. It would make more sense to re-visit this after next season when Casas likely puts it all together and increasing his overall return value in any potential trade. I'm not sure I agree or even disagree but I think it would be prudent to wait a year before revisiting this. I would rather see Campbell at 1B (if somehow Grissom also snaps into form) than Devers. Devers has a bad build for 1B (would cost them easy outs on less than ideal, but very catchable throws vs somebody longer and more flexible who can get them before they hit the dirt/requires pick or without coming off the bag to reach high or wide). When Devers has a great SS (e.g. Story) next to him, his defense is fine. See him last night? Story next to him makes him good (not good like better than avg, but good meaning totally acceptable). The Sox don't need to move Devers off of 3B. Now Casas -- that guy makes plays due to length, and he can pick, but his footwork, range and hands are not good. And he also needs a great defensive 2B next to him. I do think they trade Casas in a year or two. Maybe Gonzalez will be the next mover. Until then... excited to see if Campbell can show the range needed at 2B to neutralize Casas' shortcomings defensively. Spring Training will be fun in March. Edited to clarify fielding comments re: Devers above
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Post by nonothing on Sept 14, 2024 7:46:14 GMT -5
Provocative thought. I'm not sure Devers can at least not yet AND I don't like the timing of moving Casas after he missed so much time this year, as his perceived value would not be as high as it could be, thus we'd not get the maximum value we could get in a trade with him. It would make more sense to re-visit this after next season when Casas likely puts it all together and increasing his overall return value in any potential trade. I'm not sure I agree or even disagree but I think it would be prudent to wait a year before revisiting this. I would rather see Campbell at 1B (if somehow Grissom also snaps into form) than Devers. Devers has a bad build for 1B (would cost them easy outs on less than ideal, but very catchable throws vs somebody longer and more flexible who can get them before they hit the dirt/requires pick or without coming off the bag to reach high or wide). When Devers has a great SS (e.g. Story) next to him, his defense is fine. See him last night? Story next to him makes him good (not good like better than avg, but good meaning totally acceptable). The Sox don't need to move Devers off of 3B. Now Casas -- that guy makes plays due to length, and he can pick, but his footwork, range and hands are not good. And he also needs a great defensive 2B next to him. I do think they trade Casas in a year or two. Maybe Justin Gonzales will be the next mover. Until then... excited to see if Campbell can show the range needed at 2B to neutralize Casas' shortcomings defensively. Spring Training will be fun in March. EDITED: To clarify fielding comments re: Devers and to clarify which Gonzalez (actually Gonzales) above.
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Post by kwodes on Sept 14, 2024 13:22:40 GMT -5
Seems like most people have talked about extending Anthony, Mayer, Teel, Casas, etc, but no one has really mentioned extending Campbell. "Only" being a 4th round pick means he didn't get a multi-million $$ bonus. He'd probably be open to it. Roster fit is perfect, too.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 14, 2024 13:28:46 GMT -5
Seems like most people have talked about extending Anthony, Mayer, Teel, Casas, etc, but no one has really mentioned extending Campbell. "Only" being a 4th round pick means he didn't get a multi-million $$ bonus. He'd probably be open to it. Roster fit is perfect, too. That's a really good point that I hadn't considered. Of all the big 4 I could easily see Campbell being the easiest to sign to an extension. Maybe something like Colt Keith got?
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 14, 2024 13:44:57 GMT -5
Seems like most people have talked about extending Anthony, Mayer, Teel, Casas, etc, but no one has really mentioned extending Campbell. "Only" being a 4th round pick means he didn't get a multi-million $$ bonus. He'd probably be open to it. Roster fit is perfect, too. Yeah I expect them to try. Last year they tried to extend everyone that was a candidate and the two they got to agree made it clear they weren't exactly holding out for an extremely team friendly deal.
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Post by kwodes on Sept 14, 2024 14:00:25 GMT -5
Seems like most people have talked about extending Anthony, Mayer, Teel, Casas, etc, but no one has really mentioned extending Campbell. "Only" being a 4th round pick means he didn't get a multi-million $$ bonus. He'd probably be open to it. Roster fit is perfect, too. That's a really good point that I hadn't considered. Of all the big 4 I could easily see Campbell being the easiest to sign to an extension. Maybe something like Colt Keith got? I don't know what Keith's prospect pedigree was at the time, but that would be awesome. I haven't really looked at what a good comp would be.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 14, 2024 14:33:44 GMT -5
That's a really good point that I hadn't considered. Of all the big 4 I could easily see Campbell being the easiest to sign to an extension. Maybe something like Colt Keith got? I don't know what Keith's prospect pedigree was at the time, but that would be awesome. I haven't really looked at what a good comp would be. I believe he was top 50 or so prospect. Not saying there's much of a comparable there other than both bat first 2nd baseman. Would be pretty sweet if it was do able tho.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 14, 2024 14:54:43 GMT -5
He still got just under $500k. And even still, I can't imagine a guy's signing bonus is going to make him more or less likely to leave tens of millions of dollars on the table.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 14, 2024 15:07:35 GMT -5
I can't imagine a guy's signing bonus is going to make him more or less likely to leave tens of millions of dollars on the table. I don't know, it makes sense to me. If anyone ever offers me $50 million, even if it means giving up a 50% chance at $300 million, I am definitely taking their offer. But if I have $5 million in the bank then I'm already set for life; I'd figure, might as well gamble on getting the $300 million.
Isn't this part of why we all thought they got the extensions done for Rafaela and Bello but not Houck and Casas?
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Post by kwodes on Sept 14, 2024 17:59:58 GMT -5
I can't imagine a guy's signing bonus is going to make him more or less likely to leave tens of millions of dollars on the table. I don't know, it makes sense to me. If anyone ever offers me $50 million, even if it means giving up a 50% chance at $300 million, I am definitely taking their offer. But if I have $5 million in the bank then I'm already set for life; I'd figure, might as well gamble on getting the $300 million.
Isn't this part of why we all thought they got the extensions done for Rafaela and Bello but not Houck and Casas?
Agreed. I do think the amount someone has made coming into the majors will impact their willingness to sign an extension. Your point was exactly what I was thinking. In a vacuum, what Chris said makes perfect sense. I do wonder if anyone has ever done the research to see if there's any correlation between career earnings before an MLB debut and willingness to sign an early service time extension. My thought would be that there'd be a negative correlation. The less money they've made pre-arb, the more likely they'd sign an extension and, conversely, the more money they've made, the less likely they'd sign an extension.
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Post by bojacksoxfan on Sept 15, 2024 10:00:41 GMT -5
I can't imagine a guy's signing bonus is going to make him more or less likely to leave tens of millions of dollars on the table. I don't know, it makes sense to me. If anyone ever offers me $50 million, even if it means giving up a 50% chance at $300 million, I am definitely taking their offer. But if I have $5 million in the bank then I'm already set for life; I'd figure, might as well gamble on getting the $300 million.
Isn't this part of why we all thought they got the extensions done for Rafaela and Bello but not Houck and Casas?
Yes, it's all anecdotal data, but most of the biggest team friendly deals are to intl players who signed for peanuts. It's not just the Red Sox comparison - Bello/Rafeala vs Casas/Houck. The most notorious team friendly deals - Acuna, Albies, Salvy Perez - were also to low bonus intl players. Pulling up another Red Sox anecdote - Whitlock signed a team friendly (maybe not so friendly afterall!) early contract and he was a low rd draft choice who probably didn't get much of a bonus. Sticking with low bonus draft guys and going back the Braves, they also signed Michael Harris (3rd rd, 550k signing bonus) and Spencer Strider (4th rd, 450k) to early deals. That's just off the top of my head. I haven't seen any comprehensive studies, but if we're dealing with anecdotes shouldn't there be some obvious anecdotes of players who received big signing bonuses and signed team friendly deals? Does Bobby Witt's 11 yr, 285M deal count as an early, team friendly extension? I think when you get to 10+ years and 9 figures it's probably a different animal than what we're talking about. And, of course, if we count that than that would bring in Julio Rodriguez's and Fernando Tatis's similar deals. Who are the players who received 7 figures signing bonuses and signed deals within service time years 0-3 and gave up a couple years of FA? They must be out there. Oh, probably some pitchers. Hunter Greene whose contract was a comp to Bello's is one. I'd argue the risk calculation for pitchers and hitters is so different that that's not really relevant to hitting prospects like the Sox big 4 though. Who is most likely to sign an extension? Mayer - 6.7M Teel - 4M Anthony - 2.5 Campbell - 493k I would bet on Campbell first without much hesitation. I know there are taxes, agents fees, keeping up the with the Jones' lavish lifestyle possibilities and all that, but the top 3 guys have already received life altering money. They should feel a level of financial security and willingness to take on risk that someone like Campbell won't. That ought to matter.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Sept 17, 2024 6:57:58 GMT -5
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,582
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Post by radiohix on Sept 17, 2024 7:11:01 GMT -5
Franklin Arias got a honorable mention in that piece too.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Sept 17, 2024 12:39:23 GMT -5
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Sept 17, 2024 19:14:11 GMT -5
All during this past season we have been agog at Campbell's bat, but nobody seemed to have any definitive information about how he rated as a fielder. In fact, some people on this site asked on a number of occasions for information regarding the defensive side of the ball, but nothing specific was ever pronounced on this topic.
In that vein, I find it fascinating that Portland, where Campbell was at his offensive best, named him DEFENSIVE player of the year. THEY seemed to think that, at the very least, he was just fine defensively.
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pd
Veteran
Posts: 324
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Post by pd on Sept 17, 2024 19:26:30 GMT -5
All during this past season we have been agog at Campbell's bat, but nobody seemed to have any definitive information about how he rated as a fielder. In fact, some people on this site asked on a number of occasions for information regarding the defensive side of the ball, but nothing specific was ever pronounced on this topic. In that vein, I find it fascinating that Portland, where Campbell was at his offensive best, named him DEFENSIVE player of the year. THEY seemed to think that, at the very least, he was just fine defensively. He's been the international man of mystery when it comes to defense, so it's nice to see some recognition on that side of the game as well.
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Post by Mike Andrews on Sept 17, 2024 19:45:32 GMT -5
The defensive scouting report on Campbell's player page was updated on September 6. Ian discussed his defense on the last two podcasts.
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Post by abrinker on Sept 17, 2024 20:40:19 GMT -5
Not saying it’s easy—or even reasonable—to replicate Campbell’s development trajectory, but if I was Will Turner, I would spend all of the next several months trying to follow Kristian’s off-season playbook to the letter. His scouting profile has some striking similarities to Campbell’s coming out of college, except that Turner sold out for power in exchange for what was a strong contact-oriented aptitude in his junior year. I hope he saw how Campbell transformed his swing and unlocked power potential because of his openness to coaching and a commitment to the requisite offseason work, and that he’s motivated to do the same. Excited to see what becomes of him and his new mechanics next season.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 17, 2024 20:48:41 GMT -5
The defensive scouting report on Campbell's player page was updated on September 6. Ian discussed his defense on the last two podcasts. Well done, that should satisfy the info hunger.
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Sept 20, 2024 11:30:29 GMT -5
Not sure if this was mentioned anywhere else, but Speier said on 310 to Left with Pontes that he’s talked to a few people that think Campbell is a better prospect than Anthony
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